KHoyaNYC
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,901
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Post by KHoyaNYC on Mar 3, 2019 10:33:54 GMT -5
I guess this is my point. If NET is weighed heavily, you may be right. But the NET is so obviously screwy I am hoping the committee puts on their thinking caps when making the selections. If they do that, I still say 3 more wins gets us over the hump. Does anyone think subjective factors come into play? The NCAAT loves a good story, and wouldn't the NCAA love to pitch Coach Ewing's burgeoning success at reviving Hoya basketball? Might that push us over the edge if we get 3 more wins? Yes the NCAA is on record saying that: The NCAA Men’s Basketball Committee has had helpful metrics it has used over the years, and will continue to use the team sheets, but those will now be sorted by the NCAA Evaluation Tool,” Gavitt said. “As has always been the case, the committee won’t solely focus on metrics to select at-large teams and seed the field. There will always be a subjective element to the tournament selection process, too.”
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KHoyaNYC
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,901
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Post by KHoyaNYC on Mar 3, 2019 10:34:50 GMT -5
I think my biggest issue with the NET going forward is going to be the margin of victory. The idea of moral victories against good teams rings hollow to me. Who cares how well you played a good team but lost? Anyway, the way I am reading this is winning the BET is really the only path at this point. Too bad we were buried so early on by those crap losses to LMU and smu, but this season will still be a big success if we can finish 9-9 in the BE. I would also add rewarding teams for 20-point wins is nuts. Coaches should use those games to develop bench players. It’s capped at 10 points.
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LCPolo18
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by LCPolo18 on Mar 3, 2019 10:42:39 GMT -5
I would also add rewarding teams for 20-point wins is nuts. Coaches should use those games to develop bench players. It’s capped at 10 points. The scoring margin factor of NET is capped at 10, but the net efficiency factor has no cap so large margins affect that factor.
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Post by BeantownHoya on Mar 3, 2019 10:43:50 GMT -5
Not a ton of games today but plenty for Hoya fans to root for.
In the category of "Please help that dreadful OOC Schedule" - we are rooting for South Fla, SMU, and Illinois. South Florida (+4) at UConn Wichita St at SMU (-4) Northwestern at Illinois (-6)
In the category of "Big East Action" - we are rooting for Marquette and I assume Bracket Guru's DePaul (I only say that because not sure what a St Johns loss does to that quality win but I assume we rather them lose for bubble purposes?) Creighton at Marquette (-8) St Johns at DePaul (-1)
In the category of "Miracles Happen" we are rooting for Notre Dame and Tulane. ND (+10) at Louisville Tulane (+18) at Temple
In the category of "Just lose and help our chances" - we are rooting for Oregon St. Arizona St an 11 seed according to Bracket Matrix right now. Arizona St at Oregon St (-4)
Go Hoyas!
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HoyaDr
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 616
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Post by HoyaDr on Mar 3, 2019 10:46:00 GMT -5
On ESPN, currently in the "Work To Do" category: Georgetown Hoyas It's not going to be easy for the Hoyas. Sitting at 18-11 overall and 8-8 in the Big East looks eminently respectable, as do the three Quad 1 wins. But Georgetown's just 8-5 this season against Quads 2 and 3, and the team's NET ranking going into the 77-71 double-overtime win at home over Seton Hall was in the 70s (which may, if the new metric turns out to be used a bit like the old one was, turn out to be prohibitively low). It won't be easy, but Bubble Watch can at least envision a path that starts with winning at DePaul and at Marquette and ends with beating either the Golden Eagles or Villanova in the Big East tournament semifinals. Go to it, Hoyas. Wow that is asking a lot. As of right now I think we should be in the first four in category but maybe all the wins by the bubble teams yesterday hurt us more then I thought. I think if we win at DePaul and Marquette and win one BET game we should be in. If we lose to Marquette then perhaps we would need to make BET final to get in. Let's take care of DePaul first!
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GUJook97
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,445
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 3, 2019 10:47:39 GMT -5
So ESPN thinks we need to win at DePaul, at Marquette AND make the finals of the BET? ‘Cause that’s asking a lot. I saw that and think that is ridiculous. I honestly think that if we win the next 2 games, we will 100 percent make the tourney. We would be 10-8 and almost certainly 3rd place in the BE with wins over all the potential BE tourney teams including Marquette on the road. Of course, this is a huge ask, but still 10-8 in the BE when teams like Arizona st and Indiana are in the conversation?
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Mar 3, 2019 10:50:36 GMT -5
The NET, KenPom, quadrant numbers may not be our best argument this year with our weak OOC performance.
Perhaps the strongest argument we could make to the committee is finishing alone in 3rd place at 10-8 in a balanced conference where everyone plays each other twice.
Therefore, we root HARD today for DePaul over SJU and Marquette over Creighton.
Need Xavier to lose this coming week.
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GUJook97
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 3, 2019 10:54:36 GMT -5
I think we want SJU to win. Beating them on the road needs to be a better win for us.
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KHoyaNYC
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,901
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Post by KHoyaNYC on Mar 3, 2019 10:58:03 GMT -5
It’s capped at 10 points. The scoring margin factor of NET is capped at 10, but the net efficiency factor has no cap so large margins affect that factor. Ah good point. Yes true.
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lda05816
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 606
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Post by lda05816 on Mar 3, 2019 11:00:20 GMT -5
This is such a fascinating year for the bubble for multiple reasons. It's the first year for the NET ranking, so the prognosticators really aren't sure what to make of it. The combination of the PAC 12 being dreadful, the Big East in a transition year after losing a ton of talent and some seriously good mid majors. I think that's why we see some people (Jerry Palm) who've had the Hoyas in the discussion for a few weeks and some (ESPN/Athletic bubble watch) who don't see us that close. All the team can do is keep playing with a sense of urgency and hope to be in the discussion 2 weeks from today with the hopes of slipping in.
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Mar 3, 2019 11:06:12 GMT -5
I think we want SJU to win. Beating them on the road needs to be a better win for us. I hear you. But I’d like to force the committee into a decision of choosing a 9-9 SJU over a 10-8 GU when we split head to head (assuming BET does not impact head to head). They may not be able to do that. It may be our best chance. At the end of the day, we can’t control anything but our own games. Makes for good theater and Sunday banter.
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GUJook97
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,445
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 3, 2019 11:16:35 GMT -5
Honest question - Have we won 4 games in a row all season? Also, Marquette would be by far our biggest win. So, yeah, I think we should just see how this goes first
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hoya9797
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,219
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Post by hoya9797 on Mar 3, 2019 11:19:19 GMT -5
Not a ton of games today but plenty for Hoya fans to root for. In the category of "Please help that dreadful OOC Schedule" - we are rooting for South Fla, SMU, and Illinois. South Florida (+4) at UConn Wichita St at SMU (-4) Northwestern at Illinois (-6) In the category of "Big East Action" - we are rooting for Marquette and I assume Bracket Guru's DePaul (I only say that because not sure what a St Johns loss does to that quality win but I assume we rather them lose for bubble purposes?) Creighton at Marquette (-8) St Johns at DePaul (-1) In the category of "Miracles Happen" we are rooting for Notre Dame and Tulane. ND (+10) at Louisville Tulane (+18) at Temple In the category of "Just lose and help our chances" - we are rooting for Oregon St. Arizona St an 11 seed according to Bracket Matrix right now. Arizona St at Oregon St (-4) Go Hoyas! Never root for ND.
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Mar 3, 2019 11:25:36 GMT -5
This is such a fascinating year for the bubble for multiple reasons. It's the first year for the NET ranking, so the prognosticators really aren't sure what to make of it. The combination of the PAC 12 being dreadful, the Big East in a transition year after losing a ton of talent and some seriously good mid majors. I think that's why we see some people (Jerry Palm) who've had the Hoyas in the discussion for a few weeks and some (ESPN/Athletic bubble watch) who don't see us that close. All the team can do is keep playing with a sense of urgency and hope to be in the discussion 2 weeks from today with the hopes of slipping in. A cynical assessment would be that Palm at CBS was using his analysis to drive viewership to the game. On the other hand, ESPN wants to damage the Big East and is not going to show love to any borderline BE team making a late push. But I’m pretty cynical, more than most.
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lda05816
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 606
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Post by lda05816 on Mar 3, 2019 11:33:18 GMT -5
This is such a fascinating year for the bubble for multiple reasons. It's the first year for the NET ranking, so the prognosticators really aren't sure what to make of it. The combination of the PAC 12 being dreadful, the Big East in a transition year after losing a ton of talent and some seriously good mid majors. I think that's why we see some people (Jerry Palm) who've had the Hoyas in the discussion for a few weeks and some (ESPN/Athletic bubble watch) who don't see us that close. All the team can do is keep playing with a sense of urgency and hope to be in the discussion 2 weeks from today with the hopes of slipping in. A cynical assessment would be that Palm at CBS was using his analysis to drive viewership to the game. On the other hand, ESPN wants to damage the Big East and is not going to show love to any borderline BE team making a late push. But I’m pretty cynical, more than most. I personally enjoy these bubble conversations (especially when they involve the Hoyas) but at the end of the day, we have no idea what the committee will do. In 2014 most of us thought the Hoyas had no shot and we show up on the first 4 out list. After these last few years, we're due some good fortune and getting in the tournament when we may not deserve it feels like a proper reward lol.
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Post by wponds on Mar 3, 2019 11:42:53 GMT -5
Well, good thing ESPN doesn't pick the 68 teams. At least other sources (CBS and Andy Katz) have shown to have a little more faith in us
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DanMcQ
Moderator
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Post by DanMcQ on Mar 3, 2019 11:54:13 GMT -5
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GIGAFAN99
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 3, 2019 12:01:47 GMT -5
Am I reading the NCAA NET rankings correctly? We dropped a spot after our win against SHU and SHU GAINED a spot? I do not expect to make the NCAAs as an at large, but I am struggling to figure out these NET rankings. When I see a team like Penn St 12-17, ranked #49 something is wrong. Q3 and above wins MUST matter more than decent losses. You’re correct, I’m pretty surprised as well. But I guess a 1 point Q1 loss on the road doesn’t hurt you that much, and a 1 point Q2 home win doesn’t help you that much. We were favored by 2 and won by 1 (the cap for OT) so that makes sense. But thats not a bad thing. Bubble teams are supposed to beat other bubble teams at home. The Hoyas did that. They also stayed ahead in the standings. In leagues that have a balanced schedule, standings will matter. The Big East is so tightly packed (depending on the day 7 teams between 55 and 75), absolutely the standings will be a factor. Also win and the NET takes care of itself. We'll be dogs the next two games so any wins move it significantly.
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daveg023
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,364
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Post by daveg023 on Mar 3, 2019 12:16:21 GMT -5
The only real argument this team has is if we finish solo third in the BE at 10-8 and make the semis. And even that is not a lock to be in. You have to count on a few bid stealers too.
Yesterday was a bad day for us as a bubble team. Beating Seton Hall helped us a lot more in conference than anything else. Indiana, UCF, and Utah St all had Top 15 wins.
I don’t think ESPN’s analysis is off at all. This team has to win four games to get in basically. 22-12 and solo 3rd in the BE. The computer rankings are not going to help the cause, and our Q3 losses are massive anchors (more so than I would have thought) and tight games over bad teams made our bed.
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Mar 3, 2019 12:22:53 GMT -5
The only real argument this team has is if we finish solo third in the BE at 10-8 and make the semis. And even that is not a lock to be in. You have to count on a few bid stealers too. Yesterday was a bad day for us as a bubble team. Beating Seton Hall helped us a lot more in conference than anything else. Indiana, UCF, and Utah St all had Top 15 wins. I don’t think ESPN’s analysis is off at all. This team has to win four games to get in basically. 22-12 and solo 3rd in the BE. The computer rankings are not going to help the cause, and our Q3 losses are massive anchors (more so than I would have thought) and tight games over bad teams made our bed. You keep stomping on the team’s dream. We all know it’s an uphill battle, enjoy the ride a little bit!
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