daveg023
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Post by daveg023 on Mar 2, 2019 18:19:37 GMT -5
UCF beats Houston. Bubble teams had strong days so far. Only Alabama and TCU lost among teams who are among the last in.
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daveg023
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Post by daveg023 on Mar 2, 2019 22:44:46 GMT -5
St Mary’s and Utah St both winning - bad news for us. Fewer and fewer bubble spots appear to be open.
Great day for us, horrible day around us for the bubble
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LCPolo18
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Post by LCPolo18 on Mar 2, 2019 22:48:38 GMT -5
collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2019/03/02/bubble-watch-bracketology-indiana/GEORGETOWN (NET: 74, SOS: 89): Georgetown moved to 18-11 on the season on Saturday, picking up a double-overtime win over Seton Hall (64) in D.C. The Hoyas profile is not great, but it might be better than you think. They have three Q1 wins and a 9-9 record against Q1 and Q2 opponents, but they also have a pair of Q3 losses — SMU (106) at home and Loyola-Marymount (148) on a neutral court. The more damaging part of their profile might be their non-conference schedule, which ranks 248th. The committee has shown in the past that they punish teams who don’t schedule tough.
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daveg023
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Post by daveg023 on Mar 2, 2019 22:53:23 GMT -5
Really don’t see a spot for us unless we beat Marquette or make it to the BET finals (and that would likely mean another win over Nova or Marquette).
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daveg023
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Post by daveg023 on Mar 2, 2019 22:55:08 GMT -5
collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2019/03/02/bubble-watch-bracketology-indiana/GEORGETOWN (NET: 74, SOS: 89): Georgetown moved to 18-11 on the season on Saturday, picking up a double-overtime win over Seton Hall (64) in D.C. The Hoyas profile is not great, but it might be better than you think. They have three Q1 wins and a 9-9 record against Q1 and Q2 opponents, but they also have a pair of Q3 losses — SMU (106) at home and Loyola-Marymount (148) on a neutral court. The more damaging part of their profile might be their non-conference schedule, which ranks 248th. The committee has shown in the past that they punish teams who don’t schedule tough. The SMU and LMU losses are bigger anchors then I thought. If we win both of those, the simulator I ran said our NET would be in the 40s. That’s crazy to me but I guess those Q3 losses are killers.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 2, 2019 23:11:24 GMT -5
St Mary’s and Utah St both winning - bad news for us. Fewer and fewer bubble spots appear to be open. Great day for us, horrible day around us for the bubble St Mary's had a lead in the first half against Gonzaga. Perhaps we should chill a bit on that one
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madgesiq92
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Post by madgesiq92 on Mar 3, 2019 8:38:26 GMT -5
collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2019/03/02/bubble-watch-bracketology-indiana/GEORGETOWN (NET: 74, SOS: 89): Georgetown moved to 18-11 on the season on Saturday, picking up a double-overtime win over Seton Hall (64) in D.C. The Hoyas profile is not great, but it might be better than you think. They have three Q1 wins and a 9-9 record against Q1 and Q2 opponents, but they also have a pair of Q3 losses — SMU (106) at home and Loyola-Marymount (148) on a neutral court. The more damaging part of their profile might be their non-conference schedule, which ranks 248th. The committee has shown in the past that they punish teams who don’t schedule tough. The SMU and LMU losses are bigger anchors then I thought. If we win both of those, the simulator I ran said our NET would be in the 40s. That’s crazy to me but I guess those Q3 losses are killers. That’s why I’m looking forward to an improved non-conference schedule next year. For NCAA tourney purposes we had no margin for error in OOC with Syracuse the only opportunity for a good OOC win. In JT3s dumpster fire year early OOC wins over final four Oregon and at Cuse kept us on bubble way longer than we deserved.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2019 9:06:52 GMT -5
On ESPN, currently in the "Work To Do" category:
Georgetown Hoyas
It's not going to be easy for the Hoyas. Sitting at 18-11 overall and 8-8 in the Big East looks eminently respectable, as do the three Quad 1 wins. But Georgetown's just 8-5 this season against Quads 2 and 3, and the team's NET ranking going into the 77-71 double-overtime win at home over Seton Hall was in the 70s (which may, if the new metric turns out to be used a bit like the old one was, turn out to be prohibitively low). It won't be easy, but Bubble Watch can at least envision a path that starts with winning at DePaul and at Marquette and ends with beating either the Golden Eagles or Villanova in the Big East tournament semifinals. Go to it, Hoyas.
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NCHoya
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Post by NCHoya on Mar 3, 2019 9:19:52 GMT -5
Am I reading the NCAA NET rankings correctly? We dropped a spot after our win against SHU and SHU GAINED a spot? I do not expect to make the NCAAs as an at large, but I am struggling to figure out these NET rankings. When I see a team like Penn St 12-17, ranked #49 something is wrong. Q3 and above wins MUST matter more than decent losses.
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LCPolo18
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Post by LCPolo18 on Mar 3, 2019 9:37:07 GMT -5
Am I reading the NCAA NET rankings correctly? We dropped a spot after our win against SHU and SHU GAINED a spot? I do not expect to make the NCAAs as an at large, but I am struggling to figure out these NET rankings. When I see a team like Penn St 12-17, ranked #49 something is wrong. Q3 and above wins MUST matter more than decent losses. You’re correct, I’m pretty surprised as well. But I guess a 1 point Q1 loss on the road doesn’t hurt you that much, and a 1 point Q2 home win doesn’t help you that much.
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Post by aleutianhoya on Mar 3, 2019 9:44:15 GMT -5
Am I reading the NCAA NET rankings correctly? We dropped a spot after our win against SHU and SHU GAINED a spot? I do not expect to make the NCAAs as an at large, but I am struggling to figure out these NET rankings. When I see a team like Penn St 12-17, ranked #49 something is wrong. Q3 and above wins MUST matter more than decent losses. Penn St. is well ahead of us in KenPom too. Every year there are two or three teams that (1) play a difficult OOC; (2) play in a difficult league; and (3) play in a ton of close games against good teams, losing nearly all of them. They generally are ranked way too high (when compared to their record) as a result. As for our NET ranking, it's just really hard to make it move too much, especially when you play a team that isn't that far ahead of you and play them essentially to a draw at home. We don't know the algorithm, but we know it takes margin of victory and home court into account. Unless we get another very high quality win, our NET is going to be troublingly low going into the selections . And we will be at the mercy of the committee.
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s4hoyas
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Post by s4hoyas on Mar 3, 2019 10:08:46 GMT -5
We're not there yet, but the losses to SMU, LMU and Syracuse by one were all in '18...I realize they all count but with a team that starts 3 freshman the committee ought to be focused on where the team is going into the tourney...we just need to take care of our business...Go Hoyas!
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KHoyaNYC
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Post by KHoyaNYC on Mar 3, 2019 10:12:52 GMT -5
The Committee’s selections this year are going to undergo immense scrutiny with the new NET rankings. If the selections roughly go as the NET rankings go, I think there will be tremendous pressure to scrap it. Going to be interesting to see how it plays out.
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NCHoya
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Post by NCHoya on Mar 3, 2019 10:16:10 GMT -5
I think my biggest issue with the NET going forward is going to be the margin of victory. The idea of moral victories against good teams rings hollow to me. Who cares how well you played a good team but lost? Anyway, the way I am reading this is winning the BET is really the only path at this point. Too bad we were buried so early on by those crap losses to LMU and smu, but this season will still be a big success if we can finish 9-9 in the BE.
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NCHoya
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Post by NCHoya on Mar 3, 2019 10:20:49 GMT -5
We're not there yet, but the losses to SMU, LMU and Syracuse by one were all in '18...I realize they all count but with a team that starts 3 freshman the committee ought to be focused on where the team is going into the tourney...we just need to take care of our business...Go Hoyas! Personally, I was disappointed when they stopped considering the last 10 games. Teams evolve as a season goes and you want the best teams in the tournament. I am not saying that as benefit to the Hoyas, just in general, I want to see teams that are playing well. Last years inclusion of Oklahoma was pathetic, they were awful down the stretch and were dead men walking into the ncaas.
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hoya95
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Post by hoya95 on Mar 3, 2019 10:21:56 GMT -5
So ESPN thinks we need to win at DePaul, at Marquette AND make the finals of the BET? ‘Cause that’s asking a lot.
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jwp91
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Post by jwp91 on Mar 3, 2019 10:23:57 GMT -5
So ESPN thinks we need to win at DePaul, at Marquette AND make the finals of the BET? ‘Cause that’s asking a lot. Just ignore everyone. Try to win the next game. And see what happens. No one...I mean no one knows what is happening this year.
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KHoyaNYC
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Post by KHoyaNYC on Mar 3, 2019 10:26:19 GMT -5
I think my biggest issue with the NET going forward is going to be the margin of victory. The idea of moral victories against good teams rings hollow to me. Who cares how well you played a good team but lost? Anyway, the way I am reading this is winning the BET is really the only path at this point. Too bad we were buried so early on by those crap losses to LMU and smu, but this season will still be a big success if we can finish 9-9 in the BE. I guess this is my point. If NET is weighed heavily, you may be right. But the NET is so obviously screwy I am hoping the committee puts on their thinking caps when making the selections. If they do that, I still say 3 more wins gets us over the hump.
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Post by iheartdurenbros on Mar 3, 2019 10:27:34 GMT -5
I think my biggest issue with the NET going forward is going to be the margin of victory. The idea of moral victories against good teams rings hollow to me. Who cares how well you played a good team but lost? Anyway, the way I am reading this is winning the BET is really the only path at this point. Too bad we were buried so early on by those crap losses to LMU and smu, but this season will still be a big success if we can finish 9-9 in the BE. I would also add rewarding teams for 20-point wins is nuts. Coaches should use those games to develop bench players.
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SSHoya
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Post by SSHoya on Mar 3, 2019 10:31:11 GMT -5
I think my biggest issue with the NET going forward is going to be the margin of victory. The idea of moral victories against good teams rings hollow to me. Who cares how well you played a good team but lost? Anyway, the way I am reading this is winning the BET is really the only path at this point. Too bad we were buried so early on by those crap losses to LMU and smu, but this season will still be a big success if we can finish 9-9 in the BE. I guess this is my point. If NET is weighed heavily, you may be right. But the NET is so obviously screwy I am hoping the committee puts on their thinking caps when making the selections. If they do that, I still say 3 more wins gets us over the hump. Does anyone think subjective factors come into play? The NCAAT loves a good story, and wouldn't the NCAA love to pitch Coach Ewing's burgeoning success at reviving Hoya basketball? Might that push us over the edge if we get 3 more wins?
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