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Post by ColumbiaHeightsHoya on Jan 29, 2019 9:11:16 GMT -5
Jessie has to play better D against arguably the worst haircut in all of the BE. How does X get such hateable players. Going from Macura to this big kid is tricky. Jones also ate up our guys inside last game. Having Mourning available in this one to body up could matter. This is the type of situation that he needs to shine in. Just no quick outside shots please.
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daveg023
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by daveg023 on Jan 29, 2019 9:27:59 GMT -5
barttorvik.com/team.php?team=GeorgetownSo much talk on our own TOs, but one area that we are struggling with (ranked 308) is forcing TOs. I’m not sure how much of that is pure luck, but clearly there is an element that is missing from our defense in putting pressure on teams. There are few possessions a game where it feels like we’ve truly made the opposition uncomfortable. I really can’t think of a single time we’ve gone to a press that we’ve forced a turnover. Not sure it’s anything we can fix, but it certainly sheds light on the overall defensive picture, as we are in theory allowing our opponents more possessions with shot attempts than average. I’d love to see Mac and James take a few more chances at a swipe (as was done at the end of the SJ game) albeit at the risk of getting beat. Given they are getting beat on a lot of possessions already and we have limited rim protection, I’d almost rather us gamble a bit more to see if we can get a few steals and easy buckets. I disagree depending on the situation. If it’s a guard swiping at a perimeter player, go for it. But, as we have seen this season, our guard cheating from the perimeter to swipe at a C backing our C to the hoop has led to plenty of wide-open 3s for our opponents. We were lucky that SJU did not make them. Also, many of SJU’s were stupid mistakes on our part or lazy passing, not something special that SJU did other than staying active. What we need to do is play better, more active defense and the steals and turnovers will come, and if we’re going to gamble, do it wisely. Agree. I’m not saying gamble in every situation, as what you pointed out in terms of leaving open shooters is/has been a problem. But I am supportive of a little more ball pressure on opposing teams ball handlers.
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seaweed
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Post by seaweed on Jan 29, 2019 10:17:58 GMT -5
I might have considered it until you invalidated your entire post with your immature final sentence. But thanks for playing morality police for us all on a message board where discussions concerning basketball skills, or in this case a remarkable lack thereof, are completely inbounds. Lighten up Francis. Just because you can spend your days bashing a kid who goes to GU and plays his butt off for the Hoyas doesn't mean you should. But have at it - I am not the one that comes across looking like a schmuck.
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HoyaChris
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
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Post by HoyaChris on Jan 29, 2019 10:38:49 GMT -5
I am surprised how little a bump we got on our KenPom ranking after beating #55 St. John’s by 11 who KenPom predicted we would lose to by 9. We got a very modest increase. We are currently 94. A rough rule of thumb for understanding movements in Kenpom. Take the anticipated margin for the game - was calculated to be St John's by 9 - and compare to the actual score - Hoyas by 11 - and sum the variance, 9+11=20. Divide this sum by the number of games played, in our case 20, and you get the anticipated change in the adjusted efficiency margin or 20/20=1. If we had "tied the game" - i.e. lost by 9 - our Kenpom adjusted efficiency margin would be +6.5 as opposed to +7.5 and we would be in the 104 range that we were before the St Johns game. Obviously our numbers change when new results are added for the teams that we have already played but this impact is much diminished once you get this late in the season. Also, we don't get quite as much movement in efficiency rate because we play at a faster pace than most teams.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Jan 29, 2019 11:01:13 GMT -5
I am surprised how little a bump we got on our KenPom ranking after beating #55 St. John’s by 11 who KenPom predicted we would lose to by 9. We got a very modest increase. We are currently 94. A rough rule of thumb for understanding movements in Kenpom. Take the anticipated margin for the game - was calculated to be St John's by 9 - and compare to the actual score - Hoyas by 11 - and sum the variance, 9+11=20. Divide this sum by the number of games played, in our case 20, and you get the anticipated change in the adjusted efficiency margin or 20/20=1. If we had "tied the game" - i.e. lost by 9 - our Kenpom adjusted efficiency margin would be +6.5 as opposed to +7.5 and we would be in the 104 range that we were before the St Johns game. Obviously our numbers change when new results are added for the teams that we have already played but this impact is much diminished once you get this late in the season. Also, we don't get quite as much movement in efficiency rate because we play at a faster pace than most teams. I don't think the bold part above is correct. Efficiency is calculated tempo-free. So the tempo doesn't impact in the sense of the calculations. At the most basic level efficiency represents points scored per possession, so tempo doesn't matter. (Obviously, in a macro sense, if you go "too fast" a team might be less efficient, but that's not what is being discussed above.)
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Jan 29, 2019 11:22:21 GMT -5
So many things wrong with this I am almost not sure where to start. Hoops is not GU’s primary marketing spend, though it is higher profile than many others, If you think the school is trying to recruit prospective s by getting them into Hoya basketball, you are wildly out of touch with what our leading academic institution is all about. Second, no, it is not a “business” in the make money sense. The school needs to remain solvent, but we are not making playing time decisions based on how much income we think a certain player may help generate. If we were, Trey would be starting as his father is a major donor and fundraiser. Thirdly, “we” have not beaten this drum excessively - you have. Posters critique Trey’s game and skills, but you just keep shiving him in the yard. Enough! Whatever else he may be, he puts his heart and soul into the team, does what his coach tells him and doesn’t deserve the excessive negativity you can’t control yourself from loading on him. Back the ghuck off. I might have considered it until you invalidated your entire post with your immature final sentence. But thanks for playing morality police for us all on a message board where discussions concerning basketball skills, or in this case a remarkable lack thereof, are completely inbounds. "Remarkable lack thereof"? And you wonder why he was taking shots at you? I don't take issue with the position that Trey is not a starter level Big East player. And that he has lately tried to do more than his skills allow, resulting in bad mistakes and turnovers. But Trey has a decent short jumper when he is open, can even hit a three now and then. And although he has physicality problems with some bigs, he boxes out fundamentally better than any other big we have. If he stays within himself he is a serviceable bench player. The staying within himself is the problem lately.
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HoyaChris
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
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Post by HoyaChris on Jan 29, 2019 11:30:49 GMT -5
A rough rule of thumb for understanding movements in Kenpom. Take the anticipated margin for the game - was calculated to be St John's by 9 - and compare to the actual score - Hoyas by 11 - and sum the variance, 9+11=20. Divide this sum by the number of games played, in our case 20, and you get the anticipated change in the adjusted efficiency margin or 20/20=1. If we had "tied the game" - i.e. lost by 9 - our Kenpom adjusted efficiency margin would be +6.5 as opposed to +7.5 and we would be in the 104 range that we were before the St Johns game. Obviously our numbers change when new results are added for the teams that we have already played but this impact is much diminished once you get this late in the season. Also, we don't get quite as much movement in efficiency rate because we play at a faster pace than most teams. I don't think the bold part above is correct. Efficiency is calculated tempo-free. So the tempo doesn't impact in the sense of the calculations. At the most basic level efficiency represents points scored per possession, so tempo doesn't matter. (Obviously, in a macro sense, if you go "too fast" a team might be less efficient, but that's not what is being discussed above.) I don't think I was as clear as I could have been. What I meant to say was that our 20 point swing from the St John's game is over a higher number of possessions than it would be for an average paced team and therefore a 20 point swing for us is not worth quite as much in Kenpom as it would be for a slower paced team.
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sleepy
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Post by sleepy on Jan 29, 2019 13:18:51 GMT -5
Does Kenpom weight games over the course of a season? i.e: Overtime games in November have less influencer as games in January/Feb in your ranking. My understanding is that that would be no but would love to be wrong on that.
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HoyaChris
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
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Post by HoyaChris on Jan 29, 2019 13:28:21 GMT -5
Does Kenpom weight games over the course of a season? i.e: Overtime games in November have less influencer as games in January/Feb in your ranking. My understanding is that that would be no but would love to be wrong on that. November is the same as March.
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Post by augustusfinknottle on Jan 29, 2019 13:35:00 GMT -5
I think the second group, or second 5, is an NBA thing, where some teams do tend to have pretty much an entire second group that will play together while the starters rest. Even the NBA teams do not typically take the entire starting group out together, but will often end up with 4 or 5 subs in the game at the same time while resting the starters. The NBA season is a really long season and making sure starters are not over taxed in the regular season is a huge thing, along with the fact that even second string NBA players are typically accomplished players and do not show a huge drop off in the course of 5 -6 minutes of playing time. Even NBA teams get away from that strategy when the playoffs start and they typically shrink the rotation and start playing 7 or 8 guys at the most. Most college teams do not have the quality depth to maintain a consistent performance once they get to the 8 -10 player on their roster. I am a bigger fan of always having at least three of your starters on the floor at all times and making sure you have the correct mix of players on the court together to maintain some type of offensive flow. It is really hard to get back momentum once you lose it and you give another team some confidence. Surprised that no one has mentioned that Dean Smith did the "Blue Team" substitution on a fairly regular basis. www.espn.com/espn/dickvitale/story/_/id/12299796/former-north-carolina-coach-dI remember the Big Blue Team. I also remember watching a game with both Billy Packer (an ACC partisan) and Al McGuire doing commentary. When Smith put in the Big Blue team McGuire wondered aloud what was going on. Packer explained that this was the Big Blue team. McGuire, unimpressed said 'Well it's going to be a Big Blue Blowout if theses guys keep playing".
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Post by augustusfinknottle on Jan 29, 2019 13:36:36 GMT -5
You can't let Macura beat you.
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sleepy
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Post by sleepy on Jan 29, 2019 13:42:17 GMT -5
Does Kenpom weight games over the course of a season? i.e: Overtime games in November have less influencer as games in January/Feb in your ranking. My understanding is that that would be no but would love to be wrong on that. November is the same as March. Do any similar data analytic sites track or include a measurement for how a team in trending over the course of the season or allow for selecting a period of time to bracket the rankings into. For instance, if someone just wanted to measure how teams played from December-February, are there ways to look a that?
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Jan 29, 2019 14:01:24 GMT -5
November is the same as March. Do any similar data analytic sites track or include a measurement for how a team in trending over the course of the season or allow for selecting a period of time to bracket the rankings into. For instance, if someone just wanted to measure how teams played from December-February, are there ways to look a that? I would add that sites like KenPom DO incorporate pre-season projections to start the season, but by the stage we are at now, those are largely gone. Within conference play, you can get some stats on KenPom (which exclude the OOC), but there's no way to do it in comparison to other teams outside the conference, or over a specific period of time. That would be a pretty cool feature though. At a very basic level, you can see how a team is trending, simply by following the ranking from game to game. Our rank has been the following this year (status at each game): 55, 63, 68, 63, 73, 78, 89, 101, 96, 82, 105, 106, 114, 105, 94, 89, 97, 94, 97, 105, and today we are 94. I take two things from this: (1) KenPom's pre-season projections clearly over-rated our team, as we essentially began a fall from Day 1, until we leveled off in the 90-100 range. The worst period we had - when we were ranked 101, 96, 82, 105, 107, 114 and 105 - was the Liberty game through the Butler game. (2) Since we leveled off, we've largely been stagnant in the 90-105 type range, which is where we ended last year. There's no discernible trend upward. (3) Interestingly, our offensive efficiency has actually improved slightly in Big East play (109.8) compared to our overall number which is slightly lower. It's easy to see where that's coming from - Govan's excellent play, LeBlanc's high efficiency, McClung's better play, plus Kaleb Johnson also being very efficient in the smaller role he's playing. (4) On the flip side, our defensive efficiency is in the toilet - 108.2 in conference play, and 101.1 overall. That's in part because we had been playing awful teams in the OOC mostly, but it does show the defense is measurably worse against the better offenses of the Big East, even though our offense hasn't suffered against Big East defense.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Jan 29, 2019 14:21:22 GMT -5
A few interesting notes from looking at conference stats:
(1) Josh LeBlanc is the most efficient player in conference play in the entire conference at 143.2. Unsurprisingly, he's also got the highest eFG%. He's second in Free Throw rate, and second in shooting percentage on two's. For what it's worth, he's 2-2 on threes in conference play, too.
(2) Unlike last season, Govan's efficiency has not dropped off much from the OOC. Overall, Govan's efficiency is 121.0, and in conference play it's at 115.6.
(3) Not only is Govan shooting 47.1% from three (compared to 26.9% in conference play last season) in conference play, but he's already taken 34 threes. Last year he took 26 all Big East season!
(4) Overall, we are the best three point shooting team in conference play. Who would have predicted that coming into this season?
In addition to Govan at 47.1%, Akinjo is at 41.9% (31 shots), McClung is at 41.4% (29 shots), Malinowski is at 42.9% (28 shots), Mosely is at 42.9% (7 shots), Kaleb/LeBlanc are 2-2. Literally the only two players struggling from three in conference play are Blair (33.3% on 24 shots), and Pickett (27.3% on 22 shots).
(5) In conference play we are 8th of 10 on turnovers. We are dead last in forcing turnovers.
(6) In conference play, we give the ball up on steal's 2nd most, and we are the worst team at stealing on defense.
(7) In conference play, our FTA/FGA ratio leads the conference.
(8) We are mid-pack (5th) in offensive rebounding, but third best in defensive rebounding.
(9) In conference play, our offense is 3rd best in conference, defense is 7th. The only three defenses worse than ours are Xavier, DePaul, and Creighton. We have four games remaining against them.
(10) We have 6 games left against the bottom 5 offenses in conference play.
(NOTE: While this is all very interesting, it's only 7 games. So take it for what it's worth.)
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Post by professorhoya on Jan 29, 2019 14:25:59 GMT -5
A few interesting notes from looking at conference stats: (1) Josh LeBlanc is the most efficient player in conference play in the entire conference at 143.2. Unsurprisingly, he's also got the highest eFG%. He's second in Free Throw rate, and second in shooting percentage on two's. For what it's worth, he's 2-2 on threes in conference play, too. (2) Unlike last season, Govan's efficiency has not dropped off much from the OOC. Overall, Govan's efficiency is 121.0, and in conference play it's at 115.6. (3) Not only is Govan shooting 47.1% from three (compared to 26.9% in conference play last season) in conference play, but he's already taken 34 threes. Last year he took 26 all Big East season! (4) Overall, we are the best three point shooting team in conference play. Who would have predicted that coming into this season? In addition to Govan at 47.1%, Akinjo is at 41.9% (31 shots), McClung is at 41.4% (29 shots), Malinowski is at 42.9% (28 shots), Mosely is at 42.9% (7 shots), Kaleb/LeBlanc are 2-2. Literally the only two players struggling from three in conference play are Blair (33.3% on 24 shots), and Pickett (27.3% on 22 shots). (5) In conference play we are 8th of 10 on turnovers. We are dead last in forcing turnovers. (6) In conference play, we give the ball up on steal's 2nd most, and we are the worst team at stealing on defense. (7) In conference play, our FTA/FGA ratio leads the conference. (8) We are mid-pack (5th) in offensive rebounding, but third best in defensive rebounding. (9) In conference play, our offense is 3rd best in conference, defense is 7th. The only three defenses worse than ours are Xavier, DePaul, and Creighton. We have four games remaining against them. (10) We have 6 games left against the bottom 5 offenses in conference play. Akinjo and MacClung both are giving Jesse alot more 3pt opportunities with their ability to dribble penetrate compared to last season.
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Post by michaelgrahmstylie on Jan 29, 2019 14:45:56 GMT -5
Don't forget, Mourning was out for--what--3 weeks with concussion? I'm sure his timing is off and he is just getting back into the rhythm of the game.
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jwp91
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Post by jwp91 on Jan 29, 2019 14:55:24 GMT -5
barttorvik.com/team.php?team=GeorgetownSo much talk on our own TOs, but one area that we are struggling with (ranked 308) is forcing TOs. I’m not sure how much of that is pure luck, but clearly there is an element that is missing from our defense in putting pressure on teams. There are few possessions a game where it feels like we’ve truly made the opposition uncomfortable. I really can’t think of a single time we’ve gone to a press that we’ve forced a turnover. Not sure it’s anything we can fix, but it certainly sheds light on the overall defensive picture, as we are in theory allowing our opponents more possessions with shot attempts than average. I’d love to see Mac and James take a few more chances at a swipe (as was done at the end of the SJ game) albeit at the risk of getting beat. Given they are getting beat on a lot of possessions already and we have limited rim protection, I’d almost rather us gamble a bit more to see if we can get a few steals and easy buckets. Kaleb actually forced the force turnover off of our full court press two games ago. Our full court press has been shockingly impotent.
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sleepy
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Post by sleepy on Jan 29, 2019 15:26:03 GMT -5
Don't forget, Mourning was out for--what--3 weeks with concussion? I'm sure his timing is off and he is just getting back into the rhythm of the game. For ones timing to be off, ones timing would have to have been on.
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Post by professorhoya on Jan 29, 2019 15:38:20 GMT -5
I disagree depending on the situation. If it’s a guard swiping at a perimeter player, go for it. But, as we have seen this season, our guard cheating from the perimeter to swipe at a C backing our C to the hoop has led to plenty of wide-open 3s for our opponents. We were lucky that SJU did not make them. Also, many of SJU’s were stupid mistakes on our part or lazy passing, not something special that SJU did other than staying active. What we need to do is play better, more active defense and the steals and turnovers will come, and if we’re going to gamble, do it wisely. Agree. I’m not saying gamble in every situation, as what you pointed out in terms of leaving open shooters is/has been a problem. But I am supportive of a little more ball pressure on opposing teams ball handlers. We really don't have the ideal personnel to full court press. Ideally you want tall, long, athletic players at every position. Our point guard is undersized. And at shooting guard MacClung, Jagan and Blair are not tall and lengthy for the position. The length and height makes it hard to see over which leads to poor decisions by the person with the ball. Trey is too slow. Jessie isn't a rim protector. Pickett has ideal measureables for the press but not the motor. Malinowski too slow. LeBlance is ideal for any position on the press. But we only have one of him so there's too many sieves in our full court press for it to be effective. Now if you had 5 Josh LeBlanc's you would have something.
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sleepy
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Post by sleepy on Jan 29, 2019 15:39:10 GMT -5
Do any similar data analytic sites track or include a measurement for how a team in trending over the course of the season or allow for selecting a period of time to bracket the rankings into. For instance, if someone just wanted to measure how teams played from December-February, are there ways to look a that? I would add that sites like KenPom DO incorporate pre-season projections to start the season, but by the stage we are at now, those are largely gone. Within conference play, you can get some stats on KenPom (which exclude the OOC), but there's no way to do it in comparison to other teams outside the conference, or over a specific period of time. That would be a pretty cool feature though. At a very basic level, you can see how a team is trending, simply by following the ranking from game to game. Our rank has been the following this year (status at each game): 55, 63, 68, 63, 73, 78, 89, 101, 96, 82, 105, 106, 114, 105, 94, 89, 97, 94, 97, 105, and today we are 94. I take two things from this: (1) KenPom's pre-season projections clearly over-rated our team, as we essentially began a fall from Day 1, until we leveled off in the 90-100 range. The worst period we had - when we were ranked 101, 96, 82, 105, 107, 114 and 105 - was the Liberty game through the Butler game. (2) Since we leveled off, we've largely been stagnant in the 90-105 type range, which is where we ended last year. There's no discernible trend upward. (3) Interestingly, our offensive efficiency has actually improved slightly in Big East play (109.8) compared to our overall number which is slightly lower. It's easy to see where that's coming from - Govan's excellent play, LeBlanc's high efficiency, McClung's better play, plus Kaleb Johnson also being very efficient in the smaller role he's playing. (4) On the flip side, our defensive efficiency is in the toilet - 108.2 in conference play, and 101.1 overall. That's in part because we had been playing awful teams in the OOC mostly, but it does show the defense is measurably worse against the better offenses of the Big East, even though our offense hasn't suffered against Big East defense. Is there an actual number associated with each team that give you the ranking? I would imagine there must be right? I don't think pure rank numbers really gets to quality improvement as it is all relative to D1 schools as whole. I think it just means we are trending at the same rate as the rest of D1 basketball team (either good or bad), it doesn't speak to actual improvement or decline, as far as I understand. Plus its affected but the ups and downs by our competition throughout the season. Which, IMO why I don't put much weight in these tools from a ranking perspective until after the season is over. They are great at analyzing what happened once its over, but their ranking and predictive value are very overblown IMO. The results of a game in November mean little about the quality of a team in January/February. Still a good tool throughout the year for specific stats and efficiencies, but ranks who is is better than who on a week to week basis, I think its relatively weak.
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