guru
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Post by guru on Jan 29, 2019 16:22:10 GMT -5
I would add that sites like KenPom DO incorporate pre-season projections to start the season, but by the stage we are at now, those are largely gone. Within conference play, you can get some stats on KenPom (which exclude the OOC), but there's no way to do it in comparison to other teams outside the conference, or over a specific period of time. That would be a pretty cool feature though. At a very basic level, you can see how a team is trending, simply by following the ranking from game to game. Our rank has been the following this year (status at each game): 55, 63, 68, 63, 73, 78, 89, 101, 96, 82, 105, 106, 114, 105, 94, 89, 97, 94, 97, 105, and today we are 94. I take two things from this: (1) KenPom's pre-season projections clearly over-rated our team, as we essentially began a fall from Day 1, until we leveled off in the 90-100 range. The worst period we had - when we were ranked 101, 96, 82, 105, 107, 114 and 105 - was the Liberty game through the Butler game. (2) Since we leveled off, we've largely been stagnant in the 90-105 type range, which is where we ended last year. There's no discernible trend upward. (3) Interestingly, our offensive efficiency has actually improved slightly in Big East play (109.8) compared to our overall number which is slightly lower. It's easy to see where that's coming from - Govan's excellent play, LeBlanc's high efficiency, McClung's better play, plus Kaleb Johnson also being very efficient in the smaller role he's playing. (4) On the flip side, our defensive efficiency is in the toilet - 108.2 in conference play, and 101.1 overall. That's in part because we had been playing awful teams in the OOC mostly, but it does show the defense is measurably worse against the better offenses of the Big East, even though our offense hasn't suffered against Big East defense. Is there an actual number associated with each team that give you the ranking? I would imagine there must be right? I don't think pure rank numbers really gets to quality improvement as it is all relative to D1 schools as whole. I think it just means we are trending at the same rate as the rest of D1 basketball team (either good or bad), it doesn't speak to actual improvement or decline, as far as I understand. Plus its affected but the ups and downs by our competition throughout the season. Which, IMO why I don't put much weight in these tools from a ranking perspective until after the season is over. They are great at analyzing what happened once its over, but their ranking and predictive value are very overblown IMO. The results of a game in November mean little about the quality of a team in January/February. Still a good tool throughout the year for specific stats and efficiencies, but ranks who is is better than who on a week to week basis, I think its relatively weak. I prefer Haslametrics: www.haslametrics.com/ratings.phpIt sounds like exactly what you're looking for. Sensibly gives greater weight to more recent results - also includes a momentum stat based on how a team is playing in last 6-10 games versus their entire season as a whole. Hoyas are top 25 in that category, btw.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Jan 29, 2019 17:19:43 GMT -5
Is there an actual number associated with each team that give you the ranking? I would imagine there must be right? I don't think pure rank numbers really gets to quality improvement as it is all relative to D1 schools as whole. I think it just means we are trending at the same rate as the rest of D1 basketball team (either good or bad), it doesn't speak to actual improvement or decline, as far as I understand. Plus its affected but the ups and downs by our competition throughout the season. Which, IMO why I don't put much weight in these tools from a ranking perspective until after the season is over. They are great at analyzing what happened once its over, but their ranking and predictive value are very overblown IMO. The results of a game in November mean little about the quality of a team in January/February. Still a good tool throughout the year for specific stats and efficiencies, but ranks who is is better than who on a week to week basis, I think its relatively weak. Yes, there is. If you go to kenpom.com and look at "AdjEM" (Adjusted Efficiency Margin), that is the stat used for the numerical overall rankings from 1-353. As KenPom states here: There is more detail at the link above, but the actual numbers (versus the rank) are useful in some ways. For example, even though Virginia is #1 and Duke #2, Virginia is actually a good bit ahead of Duke. Similarly, at the bottom end you can see that Maryland Eastern Shore (currently ranked last at 353) is a good bit worse than 352 (Delaware State). This actually does a great example of showing why the worst of the 300+ teams are so much worse than everybody else, especially the bottom 25-30 or so.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Jan 29, 2019 17:22:04 GMT -5
I prefer Haslametrics: www.haslametrics.com/ratings.phpIt sounds like exactly what you're looking for. Sensibly gives greater weight to more recent results - also includes a momentum stat based on how a team is playing in last 6-10 games versus their entire season as a whole. Hoyas are top 25 in that category, btw. Cool site. Thanks for sharing.
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Post by bicentennial on Jan 29, 2019 17:58:49 GMT -5
I remember the Big Blue Team. I also remember watching a game with both Billy Packer (an ACC partisan) and Al McGuire doing commentary. When Smith put in the Big Blue team McGuire wondered aloud what was going on. Packer explained that this was the Big Blue team. McGuire, unimpressed said 'Well it's going to be a Big Blue Blowout if theses guys keep playing". I recall reading a story about UNC under Dean Smith and he was a big believer that actual games helped development more than any practice. His Freshman and other bench players had games scheduled in the area of North Carolina near UNC against smaller schools to help their development by playing in actual games. One of his younger assistant coaches would be tasked with setting up and coaching those games helping not only his players but also his assistant coaches get valuable in game experience.
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Post by HamptonHoya on Jan 29, 2019 18:05:41 GMT -5
I prefer Haslametrics: www.haslametrics.com/ratings.phpIt sounds like exactly what you're looking for. Sensibly gives greater weight to more recent results - also includes a momentum stat based on how a team is playing in last 6-10 games versus their entire season as a whole. Hoyas are top 25 in that category, btw. Cool site. Thanks for sharing. That is pretty nice. Thanks
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Post by bicentennial on Jan 29, 2019 18:20:22 GMT -5
Interestingly on that site we rank as the best team in the country when playing away from home. I think that really shows how terribly the refs treat us in our own building! I can't think of a home game in the last 5 years when I did not feel all the questionable calls went to the other team! I wonder if the Refs break room is a closet or if there is some other slight that is affecting how the refs call our home games!
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Bigs"R"Us
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Post by Bigs"R"Us on Jan 29, 2019 18:55:45 GMT -5
I find Pickett, Malinowski, Blair and Mosely not to be great passers. Particularly, inbounding and on the break. The quicker a decision has to be made, the worse the result. We need a stud 3.
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DFW HOYA
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Post by DFW HOYA on Jan 29, 2019 19:00:20 GMT -5
I recall reading a story about UNC under Dean Smith and he was a big believer that actual games helped development more than any practice. His Freshman and other bench players had games scheduled in the area of North Carolina near UNC against smaller schools to help their development by playing in actual games. One of his younger assistant coaches would be tasked with setting up and coaching those games helping not only his players but also his assistant coaches get valuable in game experience. One of the great traditions of college basketball: the UNC junior varsity. The best player each year earns a full scholarship on the main roster. www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/acc/unc/article10869986.html
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DanMcQ
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Post by DanMcQ on Jan 29, 2019 19:50:17 GMT -5
All this sabermetrics crap is making my eyes bleed. I like the lichoya method: win them all by 1 point or more!
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Post by jamaicahoya on Jan 29, 2019 22:10:46 GMT -5
All this sabermetrics crap is making my eyes bleed. I like the lichoya method: win them all by 1 point or more! I like the eye test, myself, and my eyes tell me that the boys are better than the numbers being banted about and could of, should of, and quite possible will be in a better position than they currently are. .
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kettlehill
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Post by kettlehill on Jan 30, 2019 13:29:17 GMT -5
Let’s get real and hop on the Big Dance delusion train. We need to go 10-8 in the BE. To do this, there are three difficult tasks, the rest reasonable.
# 1 beat Nova once or Marquette once.. 1-2 #2 sweep DePaul. 2-0 . # 3. Beat either Providence or Creighton at home. 1-1 #4 split with SH. 1-1 #5 beat X tomorrow. 1-0 #6 beat Butler at home. 1-0
That’s 10-8, probably 3rd or 4th place in BE with a win over top,15 team. Win at least one in the BE tourney What do you think?
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sleepy
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Post by sleepy on Jan 30, 2019 13:33:26 GMT -5
Let’s get real and hop on the Big Dance delusion train. We need to go 10-8 in the BE. To do this, there are three difficult tasks, the rest reasonable. # 1 beat Nova once or Marquette once.. 1-2 #2 sweep DePaul. 2-0 . # 3. Beat either Providence or Creighton at home. 1-1 #4 split with SH. 1-1 #5 beat X tomorrow. 1-0 #6 beat Butler at home. 1-0 That’s 10-8, probably 3rd or 4th place in BE with a win over top,15 team. Win at least one in the BE tourney What do you think? I think we have a better chance of splitting with Nova and Marquette than sweeping DePaul.
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mdtd
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Post by mdtd on Jan 30, 2019 13:50:34 GMT -5
Let’s get real and hop on the Big Dance delusion train. We need to go 10-8 in the BE. To do this, there are three difficult tasks, the rest reasonable. # 1 beat Nova once or Marquette once.. 1-2 #2 sweep DePaul. 2-0 . # 3. Beat either Providence or Creighton at home. 1-1 #4 split with SH. 1-1 #5 beat X tomorrow. 1-0 #6 beat Butler at home. 1-0 That’s 10-8, probably 3rd or 4th place in BE with a win over top,15 team. Win at least one in the BE tourney What do you think? Have to win tomorrow to start. Need to steal a couple on the road, need another quadrant one win at the minimum. Need to make up for the bad losses we have, with 2 q1 wins and 2q3 losses. Also, need to raise our NET ranking, need to be efficient and dominant in some wins, like the one tomorrow. I still think the bubble will weaken with teams like Nebraska and Ohio St looking like they will fall out of the tournament. Teams can fall out, just need to take care of business. Also, the bid stealers late will play a huge role this year with the MAC, Pac 12, MWC, ASun, SoCon and A10 all having potential bid stealers.
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prhoya
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Post by prhoya on Jan 30, 2019 13:58:33 GMT -5
Let’s get real and hop on the Big Dance delusion train. We need to go 10-8 in the BE. To do this, there are three difficult tasks, the rest reasonable. # 1 beat Nova once or Marquette once.. 1-2 #2 sweep DePaul. 2-0 . # 3. Beat either Providence or Creighton at home. 1-1 #4 split with SH. 1-1 #5 beat X tomorrow. 1-0 #6 beat Butler at home. 1-0 That’s 10-8, probably 3rd or 4th place in BE with a win over top,15 team. Win at least one in the BE tourney What do you think? I want the win in Omaha. I cannot check right now, but I don’t think we’ve won in Omaha.
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Jan 30, 2019 16:10:06 GMT -5
Let’s get real and hop on the Big Dance delusion train. We need to go 10-8 in the BE. To do this, there are three difficult tasks, the rest reasonable. # 1 beat Nova once or Marquette once.. 1-2 #2 sweep DePaul. 2-0 . # 3. Beat either Providence or Creighton at home. 1-1 #4 split with SH. 1-1 #5 beat X tomorrow. 1-0 #6 beat Butler at home. 1-0 That’s 10-8, probably 3rd or 4th place in BE with a win over top,15 team. Win at least one in the BE tourney What do you think? I want the win in Omaha. I cannot check right now, but I don’t think we’ve won in Omaha. We have won in Omaha before. I think we blew them out in fact. Edit 2015 best then 67-40 I believe it was /is their worst home loss ever. But that is the only win.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Jan 30, 2019 16:10:52 GMT -5
I want the win in Omaha. I cannot check right now, but I don’t think we’ve won in Omaha. We are 1-4 there since the start of the new Big East. The 4 seed 2015 team won there, but that's it.
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prhoya
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Post by prhoya on Jan 30, 2019 16:16:00 GMT -5
I want the win in Omaha. I cannot check right now, but I don’t think we’ve won in Omaha. We have won in Omaha before. I think we blew them out in fact. You made me look. You're right on both counts. Only one win and it was a blow-out.
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Post by Coast2CoastHoya on Jan 30, 2019 20:57:06 GMT -5
GO HOYAS! Beat Xavier!
That is all.
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Post by professorhoya on Jan 30, 2019 22:26:24 GMT -5
That’s weird. I thought the game was tonight. We dont usually have Thur games.
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MCIGuy
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Post by MCIGuy on Jan 31, 2019 2:15:12 GMT -5
I find Pickett, Malinowski, Blair and Mosely not to be great passers. Particularly, inbounding and on the break. The quicker a decision has to be made, the worse the result. We need a stud 3. I think we have a guy with all the physical tools to be a stud 3 in Pickett. And if the coaching staff of Georgetown are going to waste all of that potential by not improving his game to what he is capable of then then they should have let him slip to the Terps who, say what you will about their in-game coaching, have coaches who I think would have fixed most of these issues by now. What happens with Pickett is so potentially huge because of the very fact that he is an area kid with the type of length, athleticism and enough skill a program should love to mold. Fair or not if he can't crack double digits for a scoring average by the time he leaves Gtown it would be seen as many as a mark on the program with the locals. His development should have been priority this past summer, this fall and all throughout the first semester of play. The staff had to have known that his handle and confidence with the ball hadn't gotten any better just based on his Kenner League performance this past summer. That should have raised alarms. Granted they got him to a point in which he is close to a stud on defense but the staff needs dudes who could get him to that point on offense. Its one of the few things I'm actually critical of Ewing. Staffs all across the country right these issues in players like Pickett all the time, especially between seasons. Meanwhile we have Pickett going backwards on offense or standing still on that front for most of this season so far. That's frustrating and that has kept this team from winning maybe five more games at this point. The skills of Pickett, while raw at times, are nonetheless there to be developed greatly. Ewing and Co need to get that done because guys with that potential don't go on trees. Of course Pickett needs to get his share of the blame. He should take some cues from Mac and live in the gym working on his handle.
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