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NIT?
Feb 11, 2018 17:32:11 GMT -5
Post by BeantownHoya on Feb 11, 2018 17:32:11 GMT -5
Is this a possibility? I am asking this honestly.
WHAT IF....we go 2-3 down the stretch with those 2 wins being Providence and Marquette at home and 1 and 1 in the BE tournament, is that enough? I have 0 knowledge on what typically gets a team in beyond being over .500 - what is the ballpark RPI?
...am I just way off and there is no shot without a more significant run at the end of the season?
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GIGAFAN99
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NIT?
Feb 11, 2018 17:44:56 GMT -5
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Feb 11, 2018 17:44:56 GMT -5
Is this a possibility? I am asking this honestly. WHAT IF....we go 2-3 down the stretch with those 2 wins being Providence and Marquette at home and 1 and 1 in the BE tournament, is that enough? I have 0 knowledge on what typically gets a team in beyond being over .500 - what is the ballpark RPI? ...am I just way off and there is no shot without a more significant run at the end of the season? Probably need 18 wins to make them think about it. But that said, running the RPI wizard, 3-2 (the obvious way), and a St Johns/Xavier 1-1 in NY puts us at 18-13, 7-11, 104 RPI. GA Tech was 106 last year, Colorado 99 So depending on the automatics, we're definitely in the mix. But 18 is the number to have a shot.
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njhoya78
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Post by njhoya78 on Feb 11, 2018 18:02:07 GMT -5
NIT would be a pleasant, if not shocking, surprise, irrespective of record this season.
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beenaround
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Post by beenaround on Feb 11, 2018 19:18:59 GMT -5
Can't ever recall hoping for an NIT berth...but it's not impossible the way we've been playing. We are in most every game down to the final minute.
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LCPolo18
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Post by LCPolo18 on Feb 11, 2018 19:21:01 GMT -5
As mentioned previously, the NIT no longer requires a .500 record and a big name. After the NCAA took over the NIT, the selections are made based on: the winners of a conference regular season but didn’t make the NCAA tournament, the next best teams that didn’t make the NCAA tournament based on the same criteria as the NCAA tournament. Marquette in 2016 had a similar profile to this year’s Hoyas, so they can be a barometer of what would miss the NIT. warrennolan.com/basketball/2016/schedule/Marquettewarrennolan.com/basketball/2018/schedule/Georgetown
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mdtd
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NIT?
Feb 11, 2018 19:55:45 GMT -5
Post by mdtd on Feb 11, 2018 19:55:45 GMT -5
Looking at where Marquette is now, I'm shocked that they are being seriously considered for the NCAA tournament. Looking at how our "resumes" compare, they obviously beat us in their house. We play them again, but other then that, they beat Providence we didn't, and beat Seton Hall twice compared to us only once. Our big East records are one win apart, with a loss to St. John's who beat us twice. There other key wins are LSU led by Tremont Waters and Vermont who are solid but not a true key win. We have the better record albeit some losses to bigger teams like Purdue and Wichita St. I mean if we beat Marquette, Providence and either Butler or Xavier, all seeming possible with how we have played recently and probably being ahead of Marquette in the big east (and maybe even Seton Hall or Butler albeit not realistic) would that be NCAA worthy. Now during this time I always become delusional but if this happens I don't see why Marquette would be above us. Also, with how the tournament bubble looks (without bid stealers) if we win two or three games in the BE tournament with how good our conference is, the NCAA is not far off. Now, if you think I'm going crazy, please tell me. But with wins over these guys (especially going 4-1) and nothing significant going against us, we could make the NCAA tournament. Going 20-12 with wins over Xavier, Butler, Seton Hall, Providence and the team in the BE we'd play, going 8-10 in the BE it seems like we'd be in. Now, I don't expect wins in many of those games, 3 at the most (tourney, Marquette and Providence with Provy being one im really iffy on) but my delusional side is looking NCAA. Now again, please tell me if I'm going overboard.
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Post by JohnnyJones on Feb 11, 2018 20:04:26 GMT -5
Looking at where Marquette is now, I'm shocked that they are being seriously considered for the NCAA tournament. Looking at how our "resumes" compare, they obviously beat us in their house. We play them again, but other then that, they beat Providence we didn't, and beat Seton Hall twice compared to us only once. Our big East records are one win apart, with a loss to St. John's who beat us twice. There other key wins are LSU led by Tremont Waters and Vermont who are solid but not a true key win. We have the better record albeit some losses to bigger teams like Purdue and Wichita St. I mean if we beat Marquette, Providence and either Butler or Xavier, all seeming possible with how we have played recently and probably being ahead of Marquette in the big east (and maybe even Seton Hall or Butler albeit not realistic) would that be NCAA worthy. Now during this time I always become delusional but if this happens I don't see why Marquette would be above us. Also, with how the tournament bubble looks (without bid stealers) if we win two or three games in the BE tournament with how good our conference is, the NCAA is not far off. Now, if you think I'm going crazy, please tell me. But with wins over these guys (especially going 4-1) and nothing significant going against us, we could make the NCAA tournament. Going 20-12 with wins over Xavier, Butler, Seton Hall, Providence and the team in the BE we'd play, going 8-10 in the BE it seems like we'd be in. Now, I don't expect wins in many of those games, 3 at the most (tourney, Marquette and Providence with Provy being one im really iffy on) but my delusional side is looking NCAA. Now again, please tell me if I'm going overboard. You are completely crazy and are so far overboard it's scary. Short of winning the BET we have no chance of going to the NCAA tournament. Trust me, after every BE win so far this year I have gotten really excited and optimistic. But the above is taking it to a new level. We have one, single "decent" win and one of the worst (if not the worst) non-conference schedules in the history of CBB. And to be clear - I am feeling positive and optimistic about the future for the Hoyas.
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LCPolo18
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Post by LCPolo18 on Feb 11, 2018 20:06:00 GMT -5
Looking at where Marquette is now, I'm shocked that they are being seriously considered for the NCAA tournament. Looking at how our "resumes" compare, they obviously beat us in their house. We play them again, but other then that, they beat Providence we didn't, and beat Seton Hall twice compared to us only once. Our big East records are one win apart, with a loss to St. John's who beat us twice. There other key wins are LSU led by Tremont Waters and Vermont who are solid but not a true key win. We have the better record albeit some losses to bigger teams like Purdue and Wichita St. I mean if we beat Marquette, Providence and either Butler or Xavier, all seeming possible with how we have played recently and probably being ahead of Marquette in the big east (and maybe even Seton Hall or Butler albeit not realistic) would that be NCAA worthy. Now during this time I always become delusional but if this happens I don't see why Marquette would be above us. Also, with how the tournament bubble looks (without bid stealers) if we win two or three games in the BE tournament with how good our conference is, the NCAA is not far off. Now, if you think I'm going crazy, please tell me. But with wins over these guys (especially going 4-1) and nothing significant going against us, we could make the NCAA tournament. Going 20-12 with wins over Xavier, Butler, Seton Hall, Providence and the team in the BE we'd play, going 8-10 in the BE it seems like we'd be in. Now, I don't expect wins in many of those games, 3 at the most (tourney, Marquette and Providence with Provy being one im really iffy on) but my delusional side is looking NCAA. Now again, please tell me if I'm going overboard. The Hoyas RPI is too low to make the NCAA with an at large bid. Even winning out the regular season and going 1-1 in the BET would only result in a RPI of 73. There is an outside chance of an NIT bid, but an NCAA bid probably only comes with a BET championship.
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mdtd
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NIT?
Feb 11, 2018 20:20:56 GMT -5
Post by mdtd on Feb 11, 2018 20:20:56 GMT -5
Looking at where Marquette is now, I'm shocked that they are being seriously considered for the NCAA tournament. Looking at how our "resumes" compare, they obviously beat us in their house. We play them again, but other then that, they beat Providence we didn't, and beat Seton Hall twice compared to us only once. Our big East records are one win apart, with a loss to St. John's who beat us twice. There other key wins are LSU led by Tremont Waters and Vermont who are solid but not a true key win. We have the better record albeit some losses to bigger teams like Purdue and Wichita St. I mean if we beat Marquette, Providence and either Butler or Xavier, all seeming possible with how we have played recently and probably being ahead of Marquette in the big east (and maybe even Seton Hall or Butler albeit not realistic) would that be NCAA worthy. Now during this time I always become delusional but if this happens I don't see why Marquette would be above us. Also, with how the tournament bubble looks (without bid stealers) if we win two or three games in the BE tournament with how good our conference is, the NCAA is not far off. Now, if you think I'm going crazy, please tell me. But with wins over these guys (especially going 4-1) and nothing significant going against us, we could make the NCAA tournament. Going 20-12 with wins over Xavier, Butler, Seton Hall, Providence and the team in the BE we'd play, going 8-10 in the BE it seems like we'd be in. Now, I don't expect wins in many of those games, 3 at the most (tourney, Marquette and Providence with Provy being one im really iffy on) but my delusional side is looking NCAA. Now again, please tell me if I'm going overboard. You are completely crazy and are so far overboard it's scary. Short of winning the BET we have no chance of going to the NCAA tournament. Trust me, after every BE win so far this year I have gotten really excited and optimistic. But the above is taking it to a new level. We have one, single "decent" win and one of the worst (if not the worst) non-conference schedules in the history of CBB. And to be clear - I am feeling positive and optimistic about the future for the Hoyas. Now don't get me wrong, I'm not nearly expecting an NCAA bid and the NIT could be a stretch win how the season has gone, just wanted to bring this to a conversation as i mean a resume like that looks good enough. I expect one (maybe two) wins by the end of the year and a very solid team next year. The way I have looked at other teams in the NCAA is who you have beaten, not played. And the bubble looks weak so I thought it deserved attention. I really like the future and how Ewing has both recruited and run our offense. Probably, I will look back at that post and laugh at what i was thinking after before saying that St. John's might be our last win all year. I don't expect the NIT at this pint, but I feel it is a possibility. I just felt that the NCAA could be possible with that resume, but not a reality. Especially with a team stealing a bid in either the C-USA or A-10. I just want something to daydream about and wanted to see what others thought about it.
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mdtd
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Post by mdtd on Feb 11, 2018 20:25:10 GMT -5
Looking at where Marquette is now, I'm shocked that they are being seriously considered for the NCAA tournament. Looking at how our "resumes" compare, they obviously beat us in their house. We play them again, but other then that, they beat Providence we didn't, and beat Seton Hall twice compared to us only once. Our big East records are one win apart, with a loss to St. John's who beat us twice. There other key wins are LSU led by Tremont Waters and Vermont who are solid but not a true key win. We have the better record albeit some losses to bigger teams like Purdue and Wichita St. I mean if we beat Marquette, Providence and either Butler or Xavier, all seeming possible with how we have played recently and probably being ahead of Marquette in the big east (and maybe even Seton Hall or Butler albeit not realistic) would that be NCAA worthy. Now during this time I always become delusional but if this happens I don't see why Marquette would be above us. Also, with how the tournament bubble looks (without bid stealers) if we win two or three games in the BE tournament with how good our conference is, the NCAA is not far off. Now, if you think I'm going crazy, please tell me. But with wins over these guys (especially going 4-1) and nothing significant going against us, we could make the NCAA tournament. Going 20-12 with wins over Xavier, Butler, Seton Hall, Providence and the team in the BE we'd play, going 8-10 in the BE it seems like we'd be in. Now, I don't expect wins in many of those games, 3 at the most (tourney, Marquette and Providence with Provy being one im really iffy on) but my delusional side is looking NCAA. Now again, please tell me if I'm going overboard. The Hoyas RPI is too low to make the NCAA with an at large bid. Even winning out the regular season and going 1-1 in the BET would only result in a RPI of 73. There is an outside chance of an NIT bid, but an NCAA bid probably only comes with a BET championship. Yeah, I looked at that too before posting and would've mentioned that until I realized that Buffalo is ranked 33 and ahead of West Virginia. There are other examples, but that seemed the most extreme to me.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Feb 11, 2018 21:54:47 GMT -5
Looking at where Marquette is now, I'm shocked that they are being seriously considered for the NCAA tournament. Looking at how our "resumes" compare, they obviously beat us in their house. We play them again, but other then that, they beat Providence we didn't, and beat Seton Hall twice compared to us only once. Our big East records are one win apart, with a loss to St. John's who beat us twice. There other key wins are LSU led by Tremont Waters and Vermont who are solid but not a true key win. We have the better record albeit some losses to bigger teams like Purdue and Wichita St. The big difference is that Marquette's RPI is 65, and ours is 143, and that's because of our OOC being weak compared to theirs. Even if we won the next 5 games (which would include beating Villanova away), our RPI would be 80, with a 19-10 record, and 87 strength of schedule. Even if Marquette only wins 2 more games (let's say St. Johns and DePaul), they would have a 16-14 record, 76 RPI, and 27 Strength of Schedule. Even if they beat Georgetown and won another game, their RPI is only 69. That is almost certainly not enough to get Marquette into the tournament. Unless Marquette finishes super strong or has a good BET, they're likely not making it.
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tashoya
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Post by tashoya on Feb 11, 2018 22:30:19 GMT -5
The guys, both as a team and individually, are improving. My hopes for this season have already been met. Whatever else that is positive that happens from here on out, to me, is gravy. If Big Pat locks up a solid, natural PG and convinces both Jessie and Marcus that they'd be best served by returning (which I personally believe they would be), he'll have checked more boxes than I feel I could have hoped for 9 or so months ago.
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Post by glidehoyas (Inactive) on Feb 12, 2018 7:28:11 GMT -5
Good one beantownhoya. I think we should play in the NIT if invited. This kids need this! It would be smart and advantageous to do this. The Hoyas have nothing to lose and everything to gain.
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Feb 12, 2018 13:07:40 GMT -5
I would think the NIT is definitely in the mix if we can finish with 3 more wins. I think 4 wins definitely gets you in.
Despite what the NCAA might state publicly about its NIT selection criteria, if Georgetown is on the list of possible at-large bids, I'd be surprised if the program history and Coach Ewing's presence would not count and help break a tie against a group of other similarly qualified teams.
At a minimum, you have to assume we need 2 victories against Butler, Providence and Marquette plus a BE tournament win. 17-14 going 4-4 in final 8 games against tough comp plus Georgetown/Ewing rebuilding story. That's a pretty decent case to make for an NIT team. 18-13 and 5-3 in final 8 I think is probably a lock.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Feb 12, 2018 13:18:47 GMT -5
I would think the NIT is definitely in the mix if we can finish with 3 more wins. I think 4 wins definitely gets you in. Despite what the NCAA might state publicly about its NIT selection criteria, if Georgetown is on the list of possible at-large bids, I'd be surprised if the program history and Coach Ewing's presence would not count and help break a tie against a group of other similarly qualified teams. At a minimum, you have to assume we need 2 victories against Butler, Providence and Marquette plus a BE tournament win. 17-14 going 4-4 in final 8 games against tough comp plus Georgetown/Ewing rebuilding story. That's a pretty decent case to make for an NIT team. 18-13 and 5-3 in final 8 I think is probably a lock. Maybe, but I am still skeptical because of Marquette's 2016 example. Marquette was 20-13, 8-10 in conference, and 1-1 in the Big East tournament. That Marquette team won 3 of their last 5 regular season games. They had a bad OOC schedule, though not as bad as ours, and they did not make it. Marquette's RPI was 113. Our RPI is now in the 140s. If we won 4 more games, our RPI is likely at or near 100, but I still don't think that's enough. Since the NCAA bought the NIT, things like "Ewing rebuilding" as a good story really don't matter much anymore for selecting the field. I would be thrilled if we made the NIT, I just think absent going 5-0 to end the season, or 4-0 and a few BET wins, we are just too far away. Here is an NIT bracketology site: www.nycbuckets.com/current-nit-bracketology/While we are mentioned in the "others considered" field, we are still well out here. I think it's a good goal for us in the sense that if we peel off a bunch of wins, it might be possible, but right now it's a stretch.
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Post by HometownHoya on Feb 12, 2018 13:19:40 GMT -5
The door is open, just need the guys to play like there is a chance. Pat has shown he can get the team energized; if they believe there is a chance, this team could be deadly.
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NIT?
Feb 12, 2018 13:32:41 GMT -5
Post by Ranch Dressing on Feb 12, 2018 13:32:41 GMT -5
I would think the NIT is definitely in the mix if we can finish with 3 more wins. I think 4 wins definitely gets you in. Despite what the NCAA might state publicly about its NIT selection criteria, if Georgetown is on the list of possible at-large bids, I'd be surprised if the program history and Coach Ewing's presence would not count and help break a tie against a group of other similarly qualified teams. At a minimum, you have to assume we need 2 victories against Butler, Providence and Marquette plus a BE tournament win. 17-14 going 4-4 in final 8 games against tough comp plus Georgetown/Ewing rebuilding story. That's a pretty decent case to make for an NIT team. 18-13 and 5-3 in final 8 I think is probably a lock. Maybe, but I am still skeptical because of Marquette's 2016 example. Marquette was 20-13, 8-10 in conference, and 1-1 in the Big East tournament. That Marquette team won 3 of their last 5 regular season games. They had a bad OOC schedule, though not as bad as ours, and they did not make it. Marquette's RPI was 113. Our RPI is now in the 140s. If we won 4 more games, our RPI is likely at or near 100, but I still don't think that's enough. Since the NCAA bought the NIT, things like "Ewing rebuilding" as a good story really don't matter much anymore for selecting the field. I would be thrilled if we made the NIT, I just think absent going 5-0 to end the season, or 4-0 and a few BET wins, we are just too far away. Here is an NIT bracketology site: www.nycbuckets.com/current-nit-bracketology/While we are mentioned in the "others considered" field, we are still well out here. I think it's a good goal for us in the sense that if we peel off a bunch of wins, it might be possible, but right now it's a stretch. True, but most teams listed in the NIT bracket (especially those teams from power conferences) are going to lose games down the stretch against better conference comp (after all, that's why they are NIT bound). If we knock off 2 of Butler/Providence/Quette, I bet we move into the field on that list. Coupled with a nice BE Tourney win, and you're very competitive for an NIT bid. That said, my assumption might be a stretch, i.e., assuming 2 wins against those 3 teams and a tourney victory. So, it might be a stretch, as you say.
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BigmanU
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NIT?
Feb 12, 2018 13:34:37 GMT -5
Post by BigmanU on Feb 12, 2018 13:34:37 GMT -5
I would think the NIT is definitely in the mix if we can finish with 3 more wins. I think 4 wins definitely gets you in. Despite what the NCAA might state publicly about its NIT selection criteria, if Georgetown is on the list of possible at-large bids, I'd be surprised if the program history and Coach Ewing's presence would not count and help break a tie against a group of other similarly qualified teams. At a minimum, you have to assume we need 2 victories against Butler, Providence and Marquette plus a BE tournament win. 17-14 going 4-4 in final 8 games against tough comp plus Georgetown/Ewing rebuilding story. That's a pretty decent case to make for an NIT team. 18-13 and 5-3 in final 8 I think is probably a lock. Maybe, but I am still skeptical because of Marquette's 2016 example. Marquette was 20-13, 8-10 in conference, and 1-1 in the Big East tournament. That Marquette team won 3 of their last 5 regular season games. They had a bad OOC schedule, though not as bad as ours, and they did not make it. Marquette's RPI was 113. Our RPI is now in the 140s. If we won 4 more games, our RPI is likely at or near 100, but I still don't think that's enough. Since the NCAA bought the NIT, things like "Ewing rebuilding" as a good story really don't matter much anymore for selecting the field. I would be thrilled if we made the NIT, I just think absent going 5-0 to end the season, or 4-0 and a few BET wins, we are just too far away. Yeah agree with this. We will win all ties if we get close enough to the bubble. Lots of work to do however
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Feb 12, 2018 13:42:38 GMT -5
As reference, here are the last 10 "at large" bids to the NIT last year (by RPI):
The numbers below are RPI, Record, Strength of Schedule
Richmond: 72 (22-13), 85 Fresno State: 77 (20-13), 96 Valparaiso: 78 (24-9), 189 Georgia Tech: 79 (21-16), 58 Indiana: 81 (18-16), 42 Alabama: 82 (19-15), 72 Iowa: 83 (19-15), 60 Syracuse: 86 (19-15), 57 Utah: 96 (20-12), 99 Colorado: 101 (19-15), 84
Last year there were 10 automatic bids, leaving 22 at large bids.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 12, 2018 14:24:49 GMT -5
This thread makes me so sad.
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