bmartin
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Post by bmartin on Mar 9, 2015 13:42:10 GMT -5
Pomeroy lists Xavier as one of the unluckiest teams in the country, which is another way of saying that their stats are much better than their record. They had a few impressive wins but were 3-7 in games decided by less than 5 points or in overtime.
Providence on the other hand is one of the lucky teams with a better record than their stats would predict. They are 6-1 in close/OT games but had 3 ugly 9 or 10 point losses to Brown, BC, and Marquette.
Georgetown had a lot to do with the luck ratings of both teams - minus 30 in two games against Xavier make their stats say they should have more wins; and two blown games to Providence made their record better than they really are.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Mar 9, 2015 14:05:02 GMT -5
Personally, I'd rather play Providence or SJU in the BET Final, if we manage to win our first two games, because I think they are not as good as Villanova and therefore easier to beat, and if we make the BET Final, I'd prefer that we win it. SJU might be the ideal matchup, since their rotation only goes 6 deep, and would likely have some tired legs playing their third straight game, although being on their home court may negate the impact of that.
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bmartin
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Post by bmartin on Mar 9, 2015 14:24:24 GMT -5
Interesting observation in Pomeroy - I sorted the 29 Georgetown games by Offensive Efficiency, and the three Butler games are clustered together right at the point-per-possession threshold as more or less the same game played three times with about two shots made or missed either way making the difference:
3/3 60-54 59 possessions (GU 102.1 OE; BU 91.9) 1/17 61-59 62 possessions (GU 98.8 OE; BU 95.5) 11/28 58-64 61 possessions (GU 95.1 OE; BU 104.9)
First team to 60 wins.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 9, 2015 14:25:23 GMT -5
Personally, I'd rather play Providence or SJU in the BET Final, if we manage to win our first two games, because I think they are not as good as Villanova and therefore easier to beat, and if we make the BET Final, I'd prefer that we win it. SJU might be the ideal matchup, since their rotation only goes 6 deep, and would likely have some tired legs playing their third straight game, although being on their home court may negate the impact of that. Yes, if we play on Saturday night, I, too, would prefer that we win. (I see your point here, but couldn't let that one go.) I have a good feeling about the BET. In every other year, there has always been a reason why Id be worried about the matchups. But, we can beat any of these teams, and I also think Nova is long over due for a stinker. Of course, you can now blame me for any jinx...
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Mar 9, 2015 14:26:07 GMT -5
I am less concerned about who we play than how our team plays. I am confident that if our team plays very good defense, we will probably win on Thursday and Friday. Generally, when we have lost this year, we have beaten ourselves with poor defense, bad free throw shooting, too many fouls, too many turnovers, or a combination of some or all of these factors. I realize it's somewhat simplistic to say that we just need to play well, but I think when our team is hitting on most cylinders (or all) we will be tough to beat regardless of the opponent.
For that reason, I am not afraid of playing anybody, including Xavier. I am more concerned with our team's ability to put together three consistent games in three days. I think we can do it but it's going to require a high level of focus, concentration, strong effort, and maybe some luck.
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Post by x-centercourt400s on Mar 9, 2015 14:32:51 GMT -5
The issue with a 3rd game against an opponent is that it is difficult to win three times against the same opponent in one season unless there is a major difference in the strengths of the teams. Thus Villanova won't have to worry too much about a 3rd win over many of the BE teams because they are way out ahead of them in terms of quality. Georgetown shouldn't worry too much about third wins over DePaul or Creighton but a 3rd win over Butler would be tough. On the flip side, I'd like our chances against Xavier or Providence after two losses to each of them.
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hoyainspirit
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Post by hoyainspirit on Mar 9, 2015 14:41:36 GMT -5
GU and 'Nova for the BET. Same two for the Championship. Let's beat them twice more this year.
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Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Mar 9, 2015 14:58:55 GMT -5
GU and 'Nova for the BET. Same two for the Championship. Let's beat them twice more this year. It would be great for the conference and for FS1 to have Georgetown-Villanova or Georgetown-St. Johns on Saturday night at the Garden, although I'm not sure Butler-Villanova would be marginally different. I won't be able to get there this year, but a Friday night featuring St Johns-Nova and Butler-Georgetown would be pretty electric. It is better for the league that the Central time zone schools are all residing at the bottom of the league this year.
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guru
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Post by guru on Mar 9, 2015 15:26:17 GMT -5
The issue with a 3rd game against an opponent is that it is difficult to win three times against the same opponent in one season unless there is a major difference in the strengths of the teams. Thus Villanova won't have to worry too much about a 3rd win over many of the BE teams because they are way out ahead of them in terms of quality. Georgetown shouldn't worry too much about third wins over DePaul or Creighton but a 3rd win over Butler would be tough. On the flip side, I'd like our chances against Xavier or Providence after two losses to each of them. This again...
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FLHoya
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Post by FLHoya on Mar 9, 2015 15:47:06 GMT -5
The issue with a 3rd game against an opponent is that it is difficult to win three times against the same opponent in one season unless there is a major difference in the strengths of the teams. Thus Villanova won't have to worry too much about a 3rd win over many of the BE teams because they are way out ahead of them in terms of quality. Georgetown shouldn't worry too much about third wins over DePaul or Creighton but a 3rd win over Butler would be tough. On the flip side, I'd like our chances against Xavier or Providence after two losses to each of them. This again... If it's gonna keep coming up, I might as well post this stat: The last ten times that Georgetown has played a BET game against a team that we went W-W or L-L against in the regular season (this goes back to the 90s), the third result was.... ....the same 5 times ....different 5 times.
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prhoya
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Post by prhoya on Mar 9, 2015 15:51:46 GMT -5
DePaul is the much better team, but Creighton worries me a bit, too. I hope that is just my Hoya Paranoia gland. No they aren't. DePaul is KenPom #154 or something and has lost 10 out of 11 games. Creighton is ranked in the 80s and went 4-6 after an 0-8 start in conference play. Creighton is definitely the better team. Neither one should "worry" you. Georgetown is much better than both. That's what I thought last year vs DePaul.... It's all about Good/Bad Georgetown.... Jeckyll & Hyde GU... If Good shows up, we win.
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sleepy
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Post by sleepy on Mar 9, 2015 16:11:48 GMT -5
If it's gonna keep coming up, I might as well post this stat: The last ten times that Georgetown has played a BET game against a team that we went W-W or L-L against in the regular season (this goes back to the 90s), the third result was.... ....the same 5 times ....different 5 times. But doesn't that just support the sentiment that it's difficult to beat a team 3 times in one season? A team that was clearly better or worse than you in the regular season turns into a coin flip outcome the third time on a nuteral court. I'm not sure why this is always an argument. It's an agreed upon sentiment from players, coaches, and fans alike that it is difficult to beat any team three times. More familiarity, luck, and psychology all factor in. It no supersticious voodoo, and it's certainly not an impossible feat, it's just more difficult than it probably should be to beat a team after you've beaten them twice.
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Buckets
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Post by Buckets on Mar 9, 2015 16:31:14 GMT -5
If it's gonna keep coming up, I might as well post this stat: The last ten times that Georgetown has played a BET game against a team that we went W-W or L-L against in the regular season (this goes back to the 90s), the third result was.... ....the same 5 times ....different 5 times. Well I think the 11th such game is a very clearly demarcated line of sample size adequacy, so we will have conclusive proof on Friday night of whether this particular well-worn platitude is valid or not. Delightful.
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Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Mar 9, 2015 16:48:31 GMT -5
If it's gonna keep coming up, I might as well post this stat: The last ten times that Georgetown has played a BET game against a team that we went W-W or L-L against in the regular season (this goes back to the 90s), the third result was.... ....the same 5 times ....different 5 times. But doesn't that just support the sentiment that it's difficult to beat a team 3 times in one season? A team that was clearly better or worse than you in the regular season turns into a coin flip outcome the third time on a nuteral court. I'm not sure why this is always an argument. It's an agreed upon sentiment from players, coaches, and fans alike that it is difficult to beat any team three times. More familiarity, luck, and psychology all factor in. It no supersticious voodoo, and it's certainly not an impossible feat, it's just more difficult than it probably should be to beat a team after you've beaten them twice. It is an argument because this is one of those silly sayings that is never actually backed up any evidence. It certainly makes sense that it might "feel" harder going into the 3rd game when you thought you'd already dispatched someone for good twice (like when we beat 'Cuse in both 2013 regular season games), but that doesn't mean anything either.
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Post by professorhoya on Mar 9, 2015 16:58:50 GMT -5
Pomeroy lists Xavier as one of the unluckiest teams in the country, which is another way of saying that their stats are much better than their record. They had a few impressive wins but were 3-7 in games decided by less than 5 points or in overtime.
Providence on the other hand is one of the lucky teams with a better record than their stats would predict. They are 6-1 in close/OT games but had 3 ugly 9 or 10 point losses to Brown, BC, and Marquette. Georgetown had a lot to do with the luck ratings of both teams - minus 30 in two games against Xavier make their stats say they should have more wins; and two blown games to Providence made their record better than they really are. But is it "luck" if they win close/OT games or is it having clutch players and coaches. Does Pomerey account for that? And conversely if you lose a bunch of close games/OT then it might be an indication of players choking.
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Post by aleutianhoya on Mar 9, 2015 17:28:46 GMT -5
Pomeroy lists Xavier as one of the unluckiest teams in the country, which is another way of saying that their stats are much better than their record. They had a few impressive wins but were 3-7 in games decided by less than 5 points or in overtime.
Providence on the other hand is one of the lucky teams with a better record than their stats would predict. They are 6-1 in close/OT games but had 3 ugly 9 or 10 point losses to Brown, BC, and Marquette. Georgetown had a lot to do with the luck ratings of both teams - minus 30 in two games against Xavier make their stats say they should have more wins; and two blown games to Providence made their record better than they really are. But is it "luck" if they win close/OT games or is it having clutch players and coaches. Does Pomerey account for that? And conversely if you lose a bunch of close games/OT then it might be an indication of players choking. I think Pomeroy includes the "luck" column so that someone can easily tell which teams his system rates higher (or lower) than their record and level of competition might otherwise indicate. The word "luck" is simply shorthand. I don't think he necessarily views it as luck in the common sense of the word. I mean, there's a lot of factors that could, in theory, go into a team being worse in close games down the stretch. Aside from coaching, as you mention, depth could be another. That is, if a team consistently has tired legs or if its key players foul out frequently and are unavailable at crunch time, that would show up in a metric like this (but would be irrelevant in a more significant loss or win). But true "luck" may just as frequently be the issue, particularly when the sample sizes simply aren't that big.
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Post by grandmahoya on Mar 9, 2015 17:37:02 GMT -5
Congrats to the team on the post-season team awards, and our #23 on AP and Coaches Polls. Great way to enter BE tournament. Hoping for game vs. Creighton on Thursday, as our wins vs. DePaul were close. For the scenario of us vs. SJU or Nova, in final game, I say, BRING NOVA ON. A loss to Nova wouldn't hurt us, but a win would be huge. St. John's has real motivation to beat Nova, however, if they reach the semi's. Didn't Nova beat them, 105 to 68. Seems like they ran up the score to make a point with the NCAA committee for a #3 seed. Not my idea of good sportsmanship, but they got what they wanted.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 9, 2015 17:47:05 GMT -5
The issue with a 3rd game against an opponent is that it is difficult to win three times against the same opponent in one season unless there is a major difference in the strengths of the teams. Thus Villanova won't have to worry too much about a 3rd win over many of the BE teams because they are way out ahead of them in terms of quality. Georgetown shouldn't worry too much about third wins over DePaul or Creighton but a 3rd win over Butler would be tough. On the flip side, I'd like our chances against Xavier or Providence after two losses to each of them. This again... I think center and sleepy's point is that its not really any voodoo thing. It's just that a 20-9, 12-6 is probably exactly the type of team that wouldn't be able to easily beat comparable competition 3 times in a row. If we did, we'd be 28-2 like Nova. My guess is that Gonzaga has probably beaten 6-7 teams at least 5 times in a row. That's because they are way better. That said, I do think we are that much better than Creighton and DePaul and I don't think X and Providenxcw are that much better than us.
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sleepy
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Post by sleepy on Mar 9, 2015 17:56:10 GMT -5
But doesn't that just support the sentiment that it's difficult to beat a team 3 times in one season? A team that was clearly better or worse than you in the regular season turns into a coin flip outcome the third time on a nuteral court. I'm not sure why this is always an argument. It's an agreed upon sentiment from players, coaches, and fans alike that it is difficult to beat any team three times. More familiarity, luck, and psychology all factor in. It no supersticious voodoo, and it's certainly not an impossible feat, it's just more difficult than it probably should be to beat a team after you've beaten them twice. It is an argument because this is one of those silly sayings that is never actually backed up any evidence. It certainly makes sense that it might "feel" harder going into the 3rd game when you thought you'd already dispatched someone for good twice (like when we beat 'Cuse in both 2013 regular season games), but that doesn't mean anything either. I guess I just disagree that it's not more difficult to beat a team the more you play them. I think it's benefits the losing team more simply because they are forced to make adjustments and changes and the winning team generally sticks to the same game plan. I haven't noticed as much watching games but back in the days when I would play it was definitely noticeable. I don't know if it affected the outcomes but the games were certainly more difficult. It's really just more of a familiarity thing.
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drquigley
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Post by drquigley on Mar 9, 2015 18:30:49 GMT -5
I was at the Xavier game last year where we won by 20 points. Don't recall Xavier putting up much of a fight. What am I missing? Who did they add that has made them so much tougher this year?
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