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Post by drjimcooper on Mar 12, 2015 12:20:50 GMT -5
If I said that I really believed a loss would be good for this team, that isn't what I intended. But I don't think I said that. My point ultimately again is that there is no correlation between what happens today and what happens next week. The team could lose today and go to the Final Four, or win today and lose next week. I don't know about zero correlation, but I certainly agree there is most likely minimal correlation at most, and very possibly zero. I think that I and others were reacting to the suggestion that a loss tonight could very well "wake us up", which to some extent suggests that a loss could be beneficial. In any event, only a few more hours before this discussion fades and a different one grabs the lead. Basketball games aren't coin tosses. The outcome of prior games absolutely can affect the outcomes of future games for all sorts of reasons that the "Moneyball Men" can't, or haven't yet been able to quantify. That doesn't mean that individual advanced metrics aren't incredibly useful, and thousands of times better than the old scouting/evaluation systems in terms of likely player value to a team, but the "big data" pendulum has clearly swung too far if we're to assume that a string/series of complex games played with human players are completely independent statistical events.
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seaweed
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by seaweed on Mar 12, 2015 12:28:57 GMT -5
Last place, sure, but they have had an insane amount of close games against the best teams in the league. They lost by 2 to Butler, 4 to Nova, 1 to Xavier. All in the last few weeks. All those games occurred in their over-crowded home gym - is that worth anything? Even if they do have more fans in MSG tonight, it will not be the same home-cooking set-up. Being rational and realistic is OK, but no need to cherry-pick negatives to rationalize your nerves.
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sleepy
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Post by sleepy on Mar 12, 2015 12:53:35 GMT -5
Last place, sure, but they have had an insane amount of close games against the best teams in the league. They lost by 2 to Butler, 4 to Nova, 1 to Xavier. All in the last few weeks. All those games occurred in their over-crowded home gym - is that worth anything? Even if they do have more fans in MSG tonight, it will not be the same home-cooking set-up. Being rational and realistic is OK, but no need to cherry-pick negatives to rationalize your nerves. Of course it's worth something but people are acting like it is ridiculous to think this is going to be a tough game that will be close. We are playing a team that recently played a few teams in the top half of the league very very close. We ourselves have played teams in the bottom half of the league very very close. I think they have an advantage having played yesterday and played well. And I think they are a better team than they were when we originally faced them. All of this makes me think it will be a very close game and I wouldn't be surprised if it came down to the final possession. I'm not nervous about this game and I'm not cherry picking negatives. I happen to think we will win a tight one but I could see it going either way, honestly. Aren't we only a 6 point favorite anyways? It's not like they are some crazy underdog here and I'm predicting some scrub team to give the mighty Hoyas a run for their money. We aren't Kentucky last time I checked. And, if I am wrong, which I have been MANY MANY times before, and we dominate them with a double digit win, I will gladly admit it and not post anything that wasn't overly positive until after the BET. I didn't even think anything I said was negative though, as I am not even predicting a loss, but whatever.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 12, 2015 13:12:37 GMT -5
Do you understand that what you are saying now is a little different than saying, "everyone would be delusional and crazy not to think this would be a dogfight that we would be lucky to survive." Maybe dont say things like that if you dont want to wear the mantle of negativity
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sleepy
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Post by sleepy on Mar 12, 2015 13:32:42 GMT -5
Do you understand that what you are saying now is a little different than saying, "everyone would be delusional and crazy not to think this would be a dogfight that we would be lucky to survive." Maybe dont say things like that if you dont want to wear the mantle of negativity My first post was simply that I thought it was going to be dogfight and that we would be lucky to survive and that was what was going to be attacked for being negative. My crazy and delusion posts were to the reaction to people thinking a close game is insanely negative. I should take it back I don't think you are crazy OR delusional if you don't think it will be a dog fight and lucky to survive. However, you ARE crazy and delusion if you think the mere suggestion that it will be a dogfight or that we will be lucky to survive is insanely negative. We are not Kentucky, thank God.
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Post by HometownHoya on Mar 12, 2015 13:36:21 GMT -5
We have 4 hours and 25 minutes...go outside and get some fresh air guys! Everyone needs it
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skyhoya
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
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Post by skyhoya on Mar 12, 2015 13:39:31 GMT -5
just win !!!
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Post by michaelgrahmstylie on Mar 12, 2015 14:21:35 GMT -5
Hey, every game in this league is a potential dog fight! You better be ready to play #1 - #10.
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seaweed
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by seaweed on Mar 12, 2015 14:23:25 GMT -5
don't need fresh air when we have weed redbull and a remote... eh, I mean I don't know what your talking about Hometown, I am totally calmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm. Ooooommmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.
Agree sleepy is getting a little bit of a bum deal just cause he isn't drinking the Kool-Aid, but then again, what's wrong with Kool-Aid on a fansite? As it happens, I agree that the game could be closer than the game at Verizon but I do not agree that it will be meaningfully close and some of the things he points to, I.e. DSR being off for a more days, Creighton playing yesterday, I just don't agree on the way they break. I don't foresee DSR being in any way "cold" from his lay off - god forbid he is - and I think the odds are just as good that Creighton blew their load last night as they are that they carry the momentum forward into tonight.
Only one way to find out - and we have 3.5 hours till that happens, so ooooommmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm......
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Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Mar 12, 2015 14:28:36 GMT -5
The whole fanbase is on edge and the Selection Show isn't even until Sunday. Thanks Florida Gulf Coast!
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Post by williambraskyiii on Mar 12, 2015 14:41:07 GMT -5
The whole fanbase is on edge and the Selection Show isn't even until Sunday. Thanks Florida Gulf Coast! This was all caused by Ohio, then FGCU, then Sleepy going off his quaaludes.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Mar 12, 2015 14:48:34 GMT -5
I would agree with KenPom that if we played Creighton 10 times, we would beat them either 7 or 8 times out of 10. We've gone 2-0 already, so you might expect that Creighton is likely to win 1 of the next 2 or 3 matchups. That 1 could certainly come today, though I do not expect it to. AHHHHH! No. C'mon, man, you know that's not how probabilities work.
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njhoya78
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by njhoya78 on Mar 12, 2015 14:50:58 GMT -5
I'm not nervous. When you go in with very low expectations, you are rarely disappointed.
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Nevada Hoya
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Post by Nevada Hoya on Mar 12, 2015 14:53:30 GMT -5
I don't know how we can win today. We just moved back into the top 25, and you know what that means. Creighton matches up with us well and just demolished DePaul. We have beaten Creighton twice and you know it is hard to beat a team three times in a year. The odds are probably in favor of Creighton. And Creighton is a double digit seed; you know how we do against those teams. Oh, woe is us.
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DanMcQ
Moderator
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Post by DanMcQ on Mar 12, 2015 15:04:34 GMT -5
I don't know how we can win today. We just moved back into the top 25, and you know what that means. Creighton matches up with us well and just demolished DePaul. We have beaten Creighton twice and you know it is hard to beat a team three times in a year. The odds are probably in favor of Creighton. And Creighton is a double digit seed; you know how we do against those teams. Oh, woe is us. Fear not: GPHoya will be in the house tonight and he is afraid of everything, including his shadow. He single handedly willed the Red Sox to victory in game 4 of the 2004 ALCS, standing and holding his BELIEVE sign behind the plate like Moses parting the Red Sea from the 8th inning until the Sox won. Talk about your intangibles.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Mar 12, 2015 15:10:55 GMT -5
I'm sorry for even reading this thread. Can we get a new one for the actual game?
Jesus, this board is a show right now. We get everyone is nervous. Take a hold of yourselves, people.
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jwp91
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by jwp91 on Mar 12, 2015 15:24:59 GMT -5
The whole fanbase is on edge and the Selection Show isn't even until Sunday. Thanks Florida Gulf Coast! Every time I see that USC has lost, I smile a little.
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wnyhoya
Bulldog (over 250 posts)
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Post by wnyhoya on Mar 12, 2015 15:29:02 GMT -5
For anyone going tonight, what time do the gates open?
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Buckets
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Post by Buckets on Mar 12, 2015 15:31:56 GMT -5
I'm sorry for even reading this thread. Can we get a new one for the actual game? Jesus, this board is a Editedshow right now. We get everyone is nervous. Take a hold of yourselves, people. Of course everyone's nervous. Every game so far has been a blowout so it's almost a statistical certainty that tonight will be a nailbiter.
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Mar 12, 2015 15:48:24 GMT -5
The whole fanbase is on edge and the Selection Show isn't even until Sunday. Thanks Florida Gulf Coast! This was all caused by Ohio, then FGCU, then Sleepy going off his quaaludes. I believe that sleepy going off his meds was actually the cause of the other two, not the result.
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