Talos
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 612
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Post by Talos on Feb 8, 2015 10:56:47 GMT -5
I think Denny and others are correct when they say that this team is flawed because their two main stars Smith and DSR are flawed. DSR is a decent player but not BE POY. He is not the type of player that can consistently carry a team. He will have his days when he can't miss, but will have more days when his outside shot is not falling and he lacks the speed and hops to put pressure on the defense by blowing by his defensive guy. Smith is really ineffective greater than 5 feet from the basket. Donny Marshall criticized him in an earlier game that he put the ball on the floor when he was just going 2 ft. He does get fouled a lot but his constant nonchalant attitude is staring to wear on me. He has to be more intense, show some fire. Nova was ready for this game and played like it. They totally out played the HOYAS today. Had to laugh when Wright would call a timeout in 2nd half everytime the lead got below 20 pts. I bet he beat that 20 pt loss to the HOYAS over the players head for the past two weeks.Trawick tries to provide the intensity, but lacks a reliable handle and 3pt shot. Teams simply play him for the drive and therefore he gets ball slapped away 2-3 times a game when he attempts to go to the basket. I love III, but he is reaping the result of a deemphasizing the importance of a true point guard for several years. It has cought up with the team. Agree with your points about DSR and the deemphasizing of the PG position. While it's true JTIII's offense doesn't necessarily need a true PG, I think we still need talented guards who can handle. One of the main problems this year, and in previous years, is lack of depth at the guard position. And while the guards we do have possess some great qualities, we mostly consistently lack guards who are quick, play good on-ball defense, and can penetrate the defense. Regardless of the offense a team runs, there are still many times in a game where the sets break down, the shot clock is winding down, and you need a guard with the ability to penetrate and either finish or pass to an open man. I love Trawick, and I think Peak is going to eventually be an excellent 2G, but I think both of their skills are more of a 3 than a true shooting guard at this point. And while Campbell has outstanding straight line speed, he doesn't appear to have the lateral quickness to stay in front of his man. I don't know if the staff is not recruiting the quick guards, or they're just not successful in getting them to commit here. Regardless, I think it's a huge weakness in their roster construction this year and in the past. It also could be a big problem next year, as it seems we might be done with recruiting for 2015. We only have 3 guards on the entire roster next year, and only one is a PG. Attrition happens: injuries, mid-season transfers, academic suspensions, in-game foul trouble. I think the lack of depth could really hurt us. Having only one ballhandler on a team is just asking for trouble....remember when Wright got injured?
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Post by professorhoya on Feb 8, 2015 11:15:12 GMT -5
I think Denny and others are correct when they say that this team is flawed because their two main stars Smith and DSR are flawed. DSR is a decent player but not BE POY. He is not the type of player that can consistently carry a team. He will have his days when he can't miss, but will have more days when his outside shot is not falling and he lacks the speed and hops to put pressure on the defense by blowing by his defensive guy. Smith is really ineffective greater than 5 feet from the basket. Donny Marshall criticized him in an earlier game that he put the ball on the floor when he was just going 2 ft. He does get fouled a lot but his constant nonchalant attitude is staring to wear on me. He has to be more intense, show some fire. Nova was ready for this game and played like it. They totally out played the HOYAS today. Had to laugh when Wright would call a timeout in 2nd half everytime the lead got below 20 pts. I bet he beat that 20 pt loss to the HOYAS over the players head for the past two weeks.Trawick tries to provide the intensity, but lacks a reliable handle and 3pt shot. Teams simply play him for the drive and therefore he gets ball slapped away 2-3 times a game when he attempts to go to the basket. I love III, but he is reaping the result of a deemphasizing the importance of a true point guard for several years. It has cought up with the team. Agree with your points about DSR and the deemphasizing of the PG position. While it's true JTIII's offense doesn't necessarily need a true PG, I think we still need talented guards who can handle. One of the main problems this year, and in previous years, is lack of depth at the guard position. And while the guards we do have possess some great qualities, we mostly consistently lack guards who are quick, play good on-ball defense, and can penetrate the defense. Regardless of the offense a team runs, there are still many times in a game where the sets break down, the shot clock is winding down, and you need a guard with the ability to penetrate and either finish or pass to an open man. I love Trawick, and I think Peak is going to eventually be an excellent 2G, but I think both of their skills are more of a 3 than a true shooting guard at this point. And while Campbell has outstanding straight line speed, he doesn't appear to have the lateral quickness to stay in front of his man. I don't know if the staff is not recruiting the quick guards, or they're just not successful in getting them to commit here. Regardless, I think it's a huge weakness in their roster construction this year and in the past. It also could be a big problem next year, as it seems we might be done with recruiting for 2015. We only have 3 guards on the entire roster next year, and only one is a PG. Attrition happens: injuries, mid-season transfers, academic suspensions, in-game foul trouble. I think the lack of depth could really hurt us. Having only one ballhandler on a team is just asking for trouble....remember when Wright got injured? I think this is why it's really important to convert DSR into a point guard/combo guard. Because that is his ticket to the NBA. You look at the success or lack of with our point guards/smaller shooting guards in the NBA (Chris Wright, Markel Starks, Sapp, Wallace, Austin Freeman) and that will hurt the recruiting of marqueee guys in this area.
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beenaround
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,476
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Post by beenaround on Feb 8, 2015 13:14:27 GMT -5
I agree this team will be a 7 or 8 seed and has a "chance" to win a first rd game. The better question is...is this something to be proud of as a Hoya fan? if the answer for you is yes....you are luckier than I. On one other point, I do not agree we are a young team. We start 3 seniors and a jr. In addition to the three frosh who do play a fair amount off the bench, we have a fifth yr senior. Youth and health (two common excuses for underachieving teams) aren't factors here. I guess it is a matter of semantics. I am ALWAYS "proud" of the Hoyas as long as they are young men who represent the program and the university with integrity, respect and good grace. We are fans - wins and losses, postseason appearances, conference titles can make us happy, content, even ecstatic, while the converse can disappoint and frustrate. But I for one do not confuse those feelings and results with pride or lack thereof. Frazier it is a matter of semantics. I agree 100% in terms of being proud of the young men, the coach, and how they comport themselves as representatives of the university. In fact, I have never criticized a single player by name in a post on this board. I was referring excursively to idea that being a low NCAA seed with "a chance" to win a game is something that excites me or satisfies me as a fan. I will always root for this team and never attack any kid who is going to class and being a great representative of the school. BUt I do not have to be pleased with the results on the floor. That being said...the season ain't over yet!
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Feb 8, 2015 13:22:37 GMT -5
I guess it is a matter of semantics. I am ALWAYS "proud" of the Hoyas as long as they are young men who represent the program and the university with integrity, respect and good grace. We are fans - wins and losses, postseason appearances, conference titles can make us happy, content, even ecstatic, while the converse can disappoint and frustrate. But I for one do not confuse those feelings and results with pride or lack thereof. Frazier it is a matter of semantics. I agree 100% in terms of being proud of the young men, the coach, and how they comport themselves as representatives of the university. In fact, I have never criticized a single player by name in a post on this board. I was referring excursively to idea that being a low NCAA seed with "a chance" to win a game is something that excites me or satisfies me as a fan. I will always root for this team and never attack any kid who is going to class and being a great representative of the school. BUt I do not have to be pleased with the results on the floor. That being said...the season ain't over yet! Agreed. Believe me, I understand the frustration, and agree that we should aspire for more success. This year I can aim a little lower because of the number of freshmen contributors, and the limits that our seniors have, although yhere is no reason for this ream not to make the tourney and get at least one win. Going forward we need to figure out a way to have NCAA success.
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EasyEd
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 7,272
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Post by EasyEd on Feb 8, 2015 13:32:50 GMT -5
Last year I was ready to kiss Josh goodbye but, as we got into this year, I saw some games where he was a tiger on offense and battling for rebounds. Unfortunately, that has disappeared and he appears to have packed it in. He just appears to be back into his don't give a damn mode. If he gives us that kind of effort in the Seton Hall game, I'm ready again to kiss him goodbye and put someone in that wants to play.
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iverwig
Century (over 100 posts)
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Post by iverwig on Feb 8, 2015 14:06:59 GMT -5
This! I for the life of me can't figure Josh out he goes from being a potential all conference player to a player who should be on the end of the bench. The one thing I wonder about is if the fans can see it why can't the coaches. I have issues with Hopkins but at least he gives some effort that's why as much as he frustrates me I can appreciate his "want to" Last year I was ready to kiss Josh goodbye but, as we got into this year, I saw some games where he was a tiger on offense and battling for rebounds. Unfortunately, that has disappeared and he appears to have packed it in. He just appears to be back into his don't give a damn mode. If he gives us that kind of effort in the Seton Hall game, I'm ready again to kiss him goodbye and put someone in that wants to play.
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Post by professorhoya on Feb 8, 2015 14:10:52 GMT -5
Last year I was ready to kiss Josh goodbye but, as we got into this year, I saw some games where he was a tiger on offense and battling for rebounds. Unfortunately, that has disappeared and he appears to have packed it in. He just appears to be back into his don't give a damn mode. If he gives us that kind of effort in the Seton Hall game, I'm ready again to kiss him goodbye and put someone in that wants to play. It's easy to make him the scapegoat because he is a nice guy but the reality is opponents are double and triple teaming him and daring the other players to beat us. If our 3pt shooters cannot hit the wide open shots then defenders will continue to collapse on Smith which will deny him touches or touches in good positions close to the basket. The opportunities are there such as Copleand vs Butler or Tre Campbell in that one game but if everyone is shooting blanks we cannot spread the floor and you are letting the opponents take Smith out of the game.
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Feb 8, 2015 14:40:51 GMT -5
Don't know if Josh is discouraged by getting bumped, banged, hacked and doubled every time down; if so he needs to suck it up, battle through and figure out when he can score and when he can dish.
Also don't know if he might be wearing down. Losing a bunch of weight can mess with your metabolism. Although you initially have more energy, it can disappear if you don't adjust diet and exercise.
Hopefully it is one of these 2 problems rather than attitude. We need effective play down low, and Josh is our only offensive option.
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richfame
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,266
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Post by richfame on Feb 8, 2015 15:07:47 GMT -5
A few quick things;
1. Josh smith is infuriating. He has to stop picking up two stupid fouls in the first 10 game minutes. When u see him pick up a reaching foul or a bumping foul twenty feet from the basket 20 seconds into the game u know he's going to be ineffective on that day. Honestly he really has too go. For all his physical advantages we do not get enough consistent production.
2. LJ. While he may be an impact player next year is not that now. He cannot consistently drain the three.
3. Looks like the freshman class has hit a wall. I trust they will regain there swag for a strong finish to the season.
4. JT3. Still coming up with bonehead plays coming out of TO or end game situations. Certainly his weakness.
5. We are way to reliant on DSR. If he is blanketed our team can't function. See end of provie game.
Totally a crossroads game coming up. Which team has the toughness and balls. I hope we do.
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hoyazeke
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,837
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Post by hoyazeke on Feb 8, 2015 15:57:06 GMT -5
The issue as I see it is the regression of the two freshmen. Paul and LJ are struggling and our future depends on their development. DSR is not the type of player that can consistently carry a team to victory against good teams. Personally I don't think a team can be great with DSR as the #1 option. I don't know what happened to Paul and LJ offensively. Paul missed a routine left hand layup today and LJ can't hit a three to save his life. My expectations are much lower for this year. Make the tourney and win one game and hope Paul and LJ get some confidence along the way. I could be completely wrong but I think what happened to LJ offensively is LJ defensively. LJ has worked MUCH harder on the defensive side than he did early on. I don't think he's conditioned well enough to go hard on both ends for 26-27 minutes every game just yet. Tas this is an excellent point. LJ is playing better D now than he was at the start of the year. In HS he probably played very little D because so much was asked of him offensively. It doesn't take much to throw off a J and fatigue definitely will do it.
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Post by grandmahoya on Feb 8, 2015 17:18:08 GMT -5
After looking at the stats from the Nova game, except for horrendous 3 pt. shooting, I think we can come up with a few positives. 24 pts. in the paint [they had only 18,] 15 second chance pts. [they had 11] and 14 steals [they had 8]. The bad news is they shut down DSR totally [only 2 pts.] I expect DSR to have a monster game at the Hall. Josh is still a puzzle to me also. Must win at the Hall. Cannot lose 3 in a row. Plan to have dinner at our favorite Portuguese restaurant in Newark and then go and cheer our brains out for the Hoyas on Tuesday night. The Hall is desperate for a win. We really have to bring it.
Sad news about Dean Smith. A legend - class act. May he rest in peace.
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canissaxa
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 524
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Post by canissaxa on Feb 9, 2015 10:46:22 GMT -5
After looking at the stats from the Nova game, except for horrendous 3 pt. shooting, I think we can come up with a few positives. 24 pts. in the paint [they had only 18,] 15 second chance pts. [they had 11] and 14 steals [they had 8]. The bad news is they shut down DSR totally [only 2 pts.] I expect DSR to have a monster game at the Hall. Josh is still a puzzle to me also. Must win at the Hall. Cannot lose 3 in a row. Plan to have dinner at our favorite Portuguese restaurant in Newark and then go and cheer our brains out for the Hoyas on Tuesday night. The Hall is desperate for a win. We really have to bring it. Sad news about Dean Smith. A legend - class act. May he rest in peace. Great post. Easy to overreact to a blowout loss (Hoyatalk much?), but worth considering the box score when critiquing effort as so many of us (myself included) are quick to do. Made me wonder how the margin would have looked if both teams had shot their season average from 3 (Villanova 36.9% rather than 50% and Georgetown 34.3 rather than 5.9%). So using season averages, Nova makes 8.8 of 24 rather than 12. Georgetown makes 5.8 rather than 1. So rounding in conservative directions, that's a 9 point subtraction from Nova and a 12 point addition to Georgetown. On a 16 point game. Admitted oversimplification: 1) Their nice percentage was in some cases due to defensive breakdowns but by my eye test they also hit some shots on pretty good closeouts or with hands in their face. 2) Our terrible percentage was in some cases due to bad shots (Aaron and LJ shooting even open 3s, couple of forces by others), but again to my eye test we had a few open looks from DSR and Tre and Paul and Jabril that easily could have gone down. 3) Because missed threes are more likely to be rebounded by the offense, we really would have to subtract some of our second chance points to make the analysis valid. Hard to make solid math on back of napkin I'm working on. But no doubt the entire tenor of the game is radically different with more average 3pt shooting nights by both teams and statistical analysis has shown repeatedly that 3pt percentage is one of the least impactable stats by a defense, so hard to credit/blame points #1 and #2 above too much.
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Big Dog
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by Big Dog on Feb 9, 2015 11:00:39 GMT -5
I expected a better showing Saturday, but I'm not sure there is much to read into a blowout loss at a top 10 opponent whom we decimated. The timing of the game in the schedule obviously sucks given what happened at home with Providence and Xavier--and this, ladies and gentlemen, is why you need to win your home games--but it just isn't that surprising.
Two other observations:
1. Elite teams have NBA talent, they aren't led by NBA Europe talent. Early in the season I found myself fantasizing about the ceiling for this team because the frosh showed some promise, and implicitly in doing that I had in mind "plus, we have one of the best guards and big men in the country!". But do we really? DSR and Josh have no shot at NBA careers. None. The Providence top guys do. Past conference-champion-level Hoyas teams have had that. DSR and Josh are above average college players, but they're a lot like Austin Freeman--players whose occasional flashes and scoring outputs we loved but who I think we ultimately overrated as college players. Maybe 2-3 of these freshmen will turn into special players who can go on to NBA careers, but they aren't there yet.
2. We've gotten Editeded by the conference schedule. I'm not saying this has necessarily swung game results, but we can agree that Saturday is by far the easiest day to entice a crowd out to an arena for a game. By my own quick reference, we have played two Saturday home games. Meanwhile, we've played 6 conference road games, and 4 of them have been on Saturdays in front of jacked crowds (fortunately Creighton sucks). And then the Xavier road game was a Editeding holiday. Only the DePaul mausoleum game was during the work week, and that would be the one game you want on a Saturday because they never draw fans. Finally we get a weeknight road game tomorrow and then later against Butler, but even St. Johns is on a Saturday. In the end, 6 of our 9 road games will have been played on days when people aren't working or working the next day, compared to 4 of our 9 home games. I'd say in the end that works out to a one-game swing in the standings.
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GUJook97
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,445
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Post by GUJook97 on Feb 9, 2015 11:02:52 GMT -5
After looking at the stats from the Nova game, except for horrendous 3 pt. shooting, I think we can come up with a few positives. 24 pts. in the paint [they had only 18,] 15 second chance pts. [they had 11] and 14 steals [they had 8]. The bad news is they shut down DSR totally [only 2 pts.] I expect DSR to have a monster game at the Hall. Josh is still a puzzle to me also. Must win at the Hall. Cannot lose 3 in a row. Plan to have dinner at our favorite Portuguese restaurant in Newark and then go and cheer our brains out for the Hoyas on Tuesday night. The Hall is desperate for a win. We really have to bring it. Sad news about Dean Smith. A legend - class act. May he rest in peace. Great post. Easy to overreact to a blowout loss (Hoyatalk much?), but worth considering the box score when critiquing effort as so many of us (myself included) are quick to do. Made me wonder how the margin would have looked if both teams had shot their season average from 3 (Villanova 36.9% rather than 50% and Georgetown 34.3 rather than 5.9%). So using season averages, Nova makes 8.8 of 24 rather than 12. Georgetown makes 5.8 rather than 1. So rounding in conservative directions, that's a 9 point subtraction from Nova and a 12 point addition to Georgetown. On a 16 point game. Admitted oversimplification: 1) Their nice percentage was in some cases due to defensive breakdowns but by my eye test they also hit some shots on pretty good closeouts or with hands in their face. 2) Our terrible percentage was in some cases due to bad shots (Aaron and LJ shooting even open 3s, couple of forces by others), but again to my eye test we had a few open looks from DSR and Tre and Paul and Jabril that easily could have gone down. 3) Because missed threes are more likely to be rebounded by the offense, we really would have to subtract some of our second chance points to make the analysis valid. Hard to make solid math on back of napkin I'm working on. But no doubt the entire tenor of the game is radically different with more average 3pt shooting nights by both teams and statistical analysis has shown repeatedly that 3pt percentage is one of the least impactable stats by a defense, so hard to credit/blame points #1 and #2 above too much. I agree that it's not worth overreacting, but come on, nothing about the box score of that game is going to convince me that we didnt play absolutely atrocious and got our butts kicked. They didnt score a lot of points in the paint because they were too busy raining down wide open 3s and scoring 20+ points off our dumb turnovers. I think the general overreaction is about, as others said, the fact that we blew a game to Providence, got killed by Nova, and now face a pretty tough road game. I think if we win tomorrow, order will be restored
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hoyaboya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 12,750
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Post by hoyaboya on Feb 9, 2015 11:11:56 GMT -5
I expected a better showing Saturday, but I'm not sure there is much to read into a blowout loss at a top 10 opponent whom we decimated. The timing of the game in the schedule obviously sucks given what happened at home with Providence and Xavier--and this, ladies and gentlemen, is why you need to win your home games--but it just isn't that surprising. Two other observations: 1. Elite teams have NBA talent, they aren't led by NBA Europe talent. Early in the season I found myself fantasizing about the ceiling for this team because the frosh showed some promise, and implicitly in doing that I had in mind "plus, we have one of the best guards and big men in the country!". But do we really? DSR and Josh have no shot at NBA careers. None. The Providence top guys do. Past conference-champion-level Hoyas teams have had that. DSR and Josh are above average college players, but they're a lot like Austin Freeman--players whose occasional flashes and scoring outputs we loved but who I think we ultimately overrated as college players. Maybe 2-3 of these freshmen will turn into special players who can go on to NBA careers, but they aren't there yet. 2. We've gotten Editeded by the conference schedule. I'm not saying this has necessarily swung game results, but we can agree that Saturday is by far the easiest day to entice a crowd out to an arena for a game. By my own quick reference, we have played two Saturday home games. Meanwhile, we've played 6 conference road games, and 4 of them have been on Saturdays in front of jacked crowds (fortunately Creighton sucks). And then the Xavier road game was a Editeding holiday. Only the DePaul mausoleum game was during the work week, and that would be the one game you want on a Saturday because they never draw fans. Finally we get a weeknight road game tomorrow and then later against Butler, but even St. Johns is on a Saturday. In the end, 6 of our 9 road games will have been played on days when people aren't working or working the next day, compared to 4 of our 9 home games. I'd say in the end that works out to a one-game swing in the standings. So who's the NBA talent on Villanova, a team that's lost only twice all season playing a tough schedule? Who's the NBA talent on Xavier, a team that's kicked the Hoyas' ass twice this year? Also, while the odds of Josh and DSR getting drafted look pretty slim at this point, I think they have a shot at getting on an NBA roster at some point in their career. Smith through his size alone, DSR through his proven ability to put the ball in the basket and his potential to be a combo guy off the bench given the move to PG for the last two seasons of his college career. If you're a Villanova fan, would you really say that your team has more NBA-quality talent than Georgetown?
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Big Dog
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,912
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Post by Big Dog on Feb 9, 2015 11:46:17 GMT -5
I expected a better showing Saturday, but I'm not sure there is much to read into a blowout loss at a top 10 opponent whom we decimated. The timing of the game in the schedule obviously sucks given what happened at home with Providence and Xavier--and this, ladies and gentlemen, is why you need to win your home games--but it just isn't that surprising. Two other observations: 1. Elite teams have NBA talent, they aren't led by NBA Europe talent. Early in the season I found myself fantasizing about the ceiling for this team because the frosh showed some promise, and implicitly in doing that I had in mind "plus, we have one of the best guards and big men in the country!". But do we really? DSR and Josh have no shot at NBA careers. None. The Providence top guys do. Past conference-champion-level Hoyas teams have had that. DSR and Josh are above average college players, but they're a lot like Austin Freeman--players whose occasional flashes and scoring outputs we loved but who I think we ultimately overrated as college players. Maybe 2-3 of these freshmen will turn into special players who can go on to NBA careers, but they aren't there yet. 2. We've gotten Editeded by the conference schedule. I'm not saying this has necessarily swung game results, but we can agree that Saturday is by far the easiest day to entice a crowd out to an arena for a game. By my own quick reference, we have played two Saturday home games. Meanwhile, we've played 6 conference road games, and 4 of them have been on Saturdays in front of jacked crowds (fortunately Creighton sucks). And then the Xavier road game was a Editeding holiday. Only the DePaul mausoleum game was during the work week, and that would be the one game you want on a Saturday because they never draw fans. Finally we get a weeknight road game tomorrow and then later against Butler, but even St. Johns is on a Saturday. In the end, 6 of our 9 road games will have been played on days when people aren't working or working the next day, compared to 4 of our 9 home games. I'd say in the end that works out to a one-game swing in the standings. So who's the NBA talent on Villanova, a team that's lost only twice all season playing a tough schedule? Who's the NBA talent on Xavier, a team that's kicked the Hoyas' ass twice this year? Also, while the odds of Josh and DSR getting drafted look pretty slim at this point, I think they have a shot at getting on an NBA roster at some point in their career. Smith through his size alone, DSR through his proven ability to put the ball in the basket and his potential to be a combo guy off the bench given the move to PG for the last two seasons of his college career. If you're a Villanova fan, would you really say that your team has more NBA-quality talent than Georgetown? I'm not saying that in the absence of NBA talent we can't win a couple of tournament games and get to a Sweet Sixteen or even an Elite Eight. I'm simply saying that this was never a 15-3 roster (as Michael Bohlen ridiculously predicted in the preseason) or a team that can be expected never to lose to another quality program. I don't know anything about Villanova's roster and don't care about them. I don't think they're Final Four caliber, but they seem to have enough size and depth to be pretty good. I turned the game off on Saturday once we went down double-digits because I didn't need my Saturday ruined by something I have no control over--particularly when it was the most foreseeable loss of the season. Whether this season is a step forward or a disappointment will be determined by what is don over the next 7 games. I'm not sure we need to be any better than 3-4 (so long as the 3 come in the regular season and don't lead to an eighth game that we then lose) to get where we want to be. I understand that with every defeat people want to pile on their emotions about the past 7 years of heartbreak, but this is a different year and a different group of guys, so it is a bit silly to do that. Let's see how this plays out.
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Big Dog
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,912
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Post by Big Dog on Feb 9, 2015 11:48:29 GMT -5
I expected a better showing Saturday, but I'm not sure there is much to read into a blowout loss at a top 10 opponent whom we decimated. The timing of the game in the schedule obviously sucks given what happened at home with Providence and Xavier--and this, ladies and gentlemen, is why you need to win your home games--but it just isn't that surprising. Two other observations: 1. Elite teams have NBA talent, they aren't led by NBA Europe talent. Early in the season I found myself fantasizing about the ceiling for this team because the frosh showed some promise, and implicitly in doing that I had in mind "plus, we have one of the best guards and big men in the country!". But do we really? DSR and Josh have no shot at NBA careers. None. The Providence top guys do. Past conference-champion-level Hoyas teams have had that. DSR and Josh are above average college players, but they're a lot like Austin Freeman--players whose occasional flashes and scoring outputs we loved but who I think we ultimately overrated as college players. Maybe 2-3 of these freshmen will turn into special players who can go on to NBA careers, but they aren't there yet. 2. We've gotten Editeded by the conference schedule. I'm not saying this has necessarily swung game results, but we can agree that Saturday is by far the easiest day to entice a crowd out to an arena for a game. By my own quick reference, we have played two Saturday home games. Meanwhile, we've played 6 conference road games, and 4 of them have been on Saturdays in front of jacked crowds (fortunately Creighton sucks). And then the Xavier road game was a Editeding holiday. Only the DePaul mausoleum game was during the work week, and that would be the one game you want on a Saturday because they never draw fans. Finally we get a weeknight road game tomorrow and then later against Butler, but even St. Johns is on a Saturday. In the end, 6 of our 9 road games will have been played on days when people aren't working or working the next day, compared to 4 of our 9 home games. I'd say in the end that works out to a one-game swing in the standings. So who's the NBA talent on Villanova, a team that's lost only twice all season playing a tough schedule? Who's the NBA talent on Xavier, a team that's kicked the Hoyas' ass twice this year? Also, while the odds of Josh and DSR getting drafted look pretty slim at this point, I think they have a shot at getting on an NBA roster at some point in their career. Smith through his size alone, DSR through his proven ability to put the ball in the basket and his potential to be a combo guy off the bench given the move to PG for the last two seasons of his college career. If you're a Villanova fan, would you really say that your team has more NBA-quality talent than Georgetown? Only because it may seem like I dodged your point--we outscored Villanova in our matchups with them this season. I'm not sure what more you really can want or expect out of it. I'm not sure Villanova is amazing. I know that we're capable of some things and not of others. If it turns out that Josh and the freshmen are all out of gas and we can't find some creative answers (bringing Smith off the bench a la Davante Gardner, etc.) to try and light a fire under people's arces, then we can all go ballistic around here. It isn't time for that yet.
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canissaxa
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 524
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Post by canissaxa on Feb 9, 2015 13:59:29 GMT -5
Great post. Easy to overreact to a blowout loss (Hoyatalk much?), but worth considering the box score when critiquing effort as so many of us (myself included) are quick to do. Made me wonder how the margin would have looked if both teams had shot their season average from 3 (Villanova 36.9% rather than 50% and Georgetown 34.3 rather than 5.9%). So using season averages, Nova makes 8.8 of 24 rather than 12. Georgetown makes 5.8 rather than 1. So rounding in conservative directions, that's a 9 point subtraction from Nova and a 12 point addition to Georgetown. On a 16 point game. Admitted oversimplification: 1) Their nice percentage was in some cases due to defensive breakdowns but by my eye test they also hit some shots on pretty good closeouts or with hands in their face. 2) Our terrible percentage was in some cases due to bad shots (Aaron and LJ shooting even open 3s, couple of forces by others), but again to my eye test we had a few open looks from DSR and Tre and Paul and Jabril that easily could have gone down. 3) Because missed threes are more likely to be rebounded by the offense, we really would have to subtract some of our second chance points to make the analysis valid. Hard to make solid math on back of napkin I'm working on. But no doubt the entire tenor of the game is radically different with more average 3pt shooting nights by both teams and statistical analysis has shown repeatedly that 3pt percentage is one of the least impactable stats by a defense, so hard to credit/blame points #1 and #2 above too much. I agree that it's not worth overreacting, but come on, nothing about the box score of that game is going to convince me that we didnt play absolutely atrocious and got our butts kicked. They didnt score a lot of points in the paint because they were too busy raining down wide open 3s and scoring 20+ points off our dumb turnovers. I think the general overreaction is about, as others said, the fact that we blew a game to Providence, got killed by Nova, and now face a pretty tough road game. I think if we win tomorrow, order will be restored Fair enough. I'll concede that nothing about the statistics will convince your gut feeling. Understand that there are a large number of fans who prefer to interact with the game on that level. Appealing to logic might be a lost cause given the above stipulation, but just curious why my point about an abysmal and statistically aberrant shooting percentage from three that appears to explain a great deal of the final margin was interpreted as contradictory to your observation that we "play[ed] absolutely atrocious and got our butts kicked"?
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Post by cosmopolitanhoya on Feb 9, 2015 14:43:30 GMT -5
well i am glad people can put their fear aside of losing DSR to NBA after this season
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canissaxa
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 524
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Post by canissaxa on Feb 9, 2015 14:52:51 GMT -5
I expected a better showing Saturday, but I'm not sure there is much to read into a blowout loss at a top 10 opponent whom we decimated. The timing of the game in the schedule obviously sucks given what happened at home with Providence and Xavier--and this, ladies and gentlemen, is why you need to win your home games--but it just isn't that surprising. Two other observations: 1. Elite teams have NBA talent, they aren't led by NBA Europe talent. Early in the season I found myself fantasizing about the ceiling for this team because the frosh showed some promise, and implicitly in doing that I had in mind "plus, we have one of the best guards and big men in the country!". But do we really? DSR and Josh have no shot at NBA careers. None. The Providence top guys do. Past conference-champion-level Hoyas teams have had that. DSR and Josh are above average college players, but they're a lot like Austin Freeman--players whose occasional flashes and scoring outputs we loved but who I think we ultimately overrated as college players. Maybe 2-3 of these freshmen will turn into special players who can go on to NBA careers, but they aren't there yet. 2. We've gotten Editeded by the conference schedule. I'm not saying this has necessarily swung game results, but we can agree that Saturday is by far the easiest day to entice a crowd out to an arena for a game. By my own quick reference, we have played two Saturday home games. Meanwhile, we've played 6 conference road games, and 4 of them have been on Saturdays in front of jacked crowds (fortunately Creighton sucks). And then the Xavier road game was a Editeding holiday. Only the DePaul mausoleum game was during the work week, and that would be the one game you want on a Saturday because they never draw fans. Finally we get a weeknight road game tomorrow and then later against Butler, but even St. Johns is on a Saturday. In the end, 6 of our 9 road games will have been played on days when people aren't working or working the next day, compared to 4 of our 9 home games. I'd say in the end that works out to a one-game swing in the standings. Very interesting on #2. Tend to agree with the one-game swing. Thanks for doing the research and sharing. I think the point about NBA talent is a bit overrated by pundits (not a criticism of your post--completely agree we're not elite this year). Certainly if you're looking at projecting a NCAA champion, I'll grant that all winners almost all final four teams in recent memory had at least one NBA player on the roster, but there's a bit of a self-fulfilling prophesy effect where some borderline NBA players get drafted after a deep run. I know it's early, but Shabazz Napier and Deandre Daniels may be illustrations of this principle. Anyway, I don't think anyone was projecting us cutting down the nets in Indianapolis this year (how I would love to have to eat my words on this!), and even the final four takes a pretty heady bout of optimism to dream about. But there's nothing preventing a sweet 16 run with a bunch of good college players, and that's my stretch hope for the season. Interesting to try to figure out how many NBA players we have on the roster. Josh has most obvious potential, but I think he's probably played himself out of draft consideration barring a late-season turnaround. Early in the season, I was thinking that White and Peak had that potential with a solid sophomore year jump. Now it seems too early to really speculate, but Copeland seems most likely if he can put on some muscle. Love Tre's game, but he's obviously got longest shot because of height. DSR is just a really bad fit for what NBA execs value--height and quickness. Since both shooting and defense are good but not elite, he doesn't really have the other pieces to have someone take a flyer. See him having a really solid overseas career (ala Jonathan Wallace) if he wants it.
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