Hoyas 74 - Belmont 59, 2012 NCAA 2nd Round

[mikeylikesit]

WOW, has anyone posted this? insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/tournament/2012/projections/_/round/midwest This is giving Belmont a 50% chance to win this game. To put that in perspective, this means that EVERY higher seed except us is a favorite using this AccuScore technology (even all the 7 and 8 seeds are favored). Pretty unbelievable...

While I still think we should win, why is anyone happy about this draw? We are facing the #23 team in Kenpom's rankings (which equates to a 6 seed), while the other 3 seeds get teams ranked 51 (St. Bon), 55 (South Dakota State), and 50/57 (BYU/Iona). Their Kenpom ranking is thus also higher than any other double digit seed. They're also pretty highly rated in Sagarin, BPI, etc. relative to their seed As others have pointed out, the stylistic matchup could still work for us (as long as we can handle their press), but this is still a dangerous, underseeded team.

[TBird41]

Mar 11, 2012 23:35:36 GMT -5 canissaxa said:

Count me in the camp that thinks Belmont is extremely dangerous.

Someone called them a "kenpom tiger" and I hope that person is correct, but there are a lot of teams from bad or mediocre conferences that don't absolutely crush their opposition by the margins Belmont does. By comparison, the other five 14 seeds (five because of the play-in game) are all clustered between 50 and 57 in kenpom rankings.

The argument that we are a good 3pt defensive team so we'll take away their strengths is NOT at all convincing to me. The research by stats heads is pretty overwhelming that defense cannot meaningfully impact 3 point percentage (although it can decrease attempts). See these very convincing blog posts by Ken Pomeroy:
- kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/defense_has_little_control_over_opponents_3p/
- kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/the_3-point_line_is_a_lottery/

If you're a real stats geek, there are a couple more posts along the same vein because it's such a surprising result. If you don't believe in statistics because you really understand basketball better than math, well, let's just agree to disagree.

The "we beat Notre Dame who shoots a lot of 3s so we match up well" argument is based on a sample size of one game so is essentially meaningless.

I don't subscribe to kenpom anymore so I don't know how adept Belmont is at guard penetration (can someone share their foul drawing numbers?), but the highlights from Duke seemed to show at least a couple of guards who were pretty adept at driving and finishing (although not so strong at driving at dishing). Again, a small sample, but not confidence inducing.

In any case, the Bruins are a good, veteran team who has been the tourney before. If they get hot from 3, we'll all have to deal with the story of another early round gtown upset for another year.

The good news is that we're pretty good too. The best #3 seed per kenpom by a few slots. So the committee didn't do Belmont any favors with a too-low seed and a strong 3 seed. And if we win, we've got an excellent chance to the sweet 16. After that, KU in St Louis I think will be too much--they've gotten better too and will be playing much closer to home. But all the games are tough by then.

Just please win this first game! Can't stand hating the entire tournament after a sickening early exit again!

To be fair, it wasn't just Notre Dame. We've held teams to 27% from behind the arc this year (BE teams shot 28.7%). I think there's something to KenPom's stuff, but to say that defenses absolutely do not impact another team's 3pt shooting period would also be wrong.

Obviously a defense can prevent 3pt shots from being taken, which KenPom recommends as a strategy (our game against ND is a good example of our defense's ability to do that) and he also acknowledges that its likely that a strong perimeter defense can affect 3pt% (albeit less than conventional wisdom holds):

kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/how_defense_works_an_investigation/

Another thing that needs to be taken into account is the effect of contesting a shot v. an open shot. While the assumption is that 3pt shots are taken when open, that's not going to be always true. KenPom's analysis isn't based on the basketball equivalent of PitchFx. It's not looking at what happens when teams take contested v. uncontested 3 pt shots (the baseball comparison would be catcher's defense--pitchFX lets you see the effect of the catcher's defense in a way that conventional stats don't).

[FHillsNYHoya]

Enough. We didn't deserve a 3 seed at least in my opinion and we got one. If we can't beat Belmont ESP after losing the way we have recently then there is not much to talk about. Just win.

[gujake]

Mar 11, 2012 23:35:36 GMT -5 canissaxa said:

I don't subscribe to kenpom anymore so I don't know how adept Belmont is at guard penetration (can someone share their foul drawing numbers?)

Belmont is 99th in FTA/FGA. We are 90th for comparison.

Johnson draws a lot of fouls (50th in country in FD/40) but their other guards don't draw many. Saunders, their 6'10 guy, is 15th in the country.

As for the 3P% discussion -- I'm a huge stat nerd and KenPom fan, but I don't think I completely agree with his conclusions on this. At the very least, I think there is room for outliers that do significantly affect 3P%. For instance, I definitely don't think it's just luck that Georgetown is #1 in defensive 3P% this year.

[jgalt]

Mar 11, 2012 23:35:36 GMT -5 canissaxa said:

The argument that we are a good 3pt defensive team so we'll take away their strengths is NOT at all convincing to me. The research by stats heads is pretty overwhelming that defense cannot meaningfully impact 3 point percentage (although it can decrease attempts).

I don't subscribe to kenpom anymore so I don't know how adept Belmont is at guard penetration (can someone share their foul drawing numbers?), but the highlights from Duke seemed to show at least a couple of guards who were pretty adept at driving and finishing (although not so strong at driving at dishing). Again, a small sample, but not confidence inducing.

They attempt about 23 3s per game and make about 8 (so 37% which is good but not exceptional i would say). Gtown allows, on average, 17.6 (which is funny enough the exact same amount as Belmont). I think limiting the 3pt attempts is enough to slow their offense enough to get the win.

They attempt about 22 free throws a game while gtown gets about 20. I dont know the average for all teams but I would think this is about average considering gtown doesnt seem to get to the line much and the two numbers are about the same.

Watching highlights from the Duke game made me really scared. I just remember the end of the game where Belmont was making all the right plays: staying patient, going inside to their big man, not settling for a bad 3. This is a well run team, even if less talented.

I think the key is to pound it inside. They only have two guys who can match Henry's size (both play around 20 min) and Otto and Greg should be able to grab rebounds over smaller defenders. Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kelly were pretty effective down low in the game against Duke.

If you figure Henry matches up with 6-10 Scott Saunders and Hollis or Nate goes on 6-9 Mick Hedgepath, that gives huge match up problems at the guard position. Their starting guards are 6-3 Kerron Johnson, 6-3 Ian Clark, and 5-11 Drew Henlen. 6-6 J.J. Mann, 6-7 Blake Jenkins, and 6-6 Brandon Baker are the reserves with the most minutes.

If Gtown can limit the number of 3s that Belmont takes, and get it inside to Henry, I dont think the pace should matter.

[sleepy]

As much as getting Belmont as our 14 seed sucks, I think Kansas' 15 seed Detroit would have been a worse match-up for us. We should also all remember that no matter what team we were matched up with we would be freaking out because of recent years AND because EVERY team playing in this tournament is playing well this time of the year. At least all our potential first round opponents. Out match up could be better, but it could be worse, and we would all be just as freaked out no matter who it was.

[CaliHoya]

Even if Belmont does press, it's pretty clear that we won't be dealing with a Louisville or VCU-type frenetic press. Belmont's steal % (the percent of opponent's possesions they steal) is 10.6% (98th in the nation) and its opponent' turnover percentage is 20.9% (139th in the nation). By comparison, Louisville has a 13.3% steal rate and has an opponent TO % of 23.4%, while VCU has a 16.2% steal % and 27.4 TO % (both #1 in the nation - thank God, we didn't draw them!).

[jgalt]

And if you are keeping track at home, Jon Rothstein has Gtown in his Final Four

[TBird41]

Mar 12, 2012 0:15:21 GMT -5 jgalt said:

Watching highlights from the Duke game made me really scared. I just remember the end of the game where Belmont was making all the right plays: staying patient, going inside to their big man, not settling for a bad 3. This is a well run team, even if less talented.

I think the key is to pound it inside. They only have two guys who can match Henry's size (both play around 20 min) and Otto and Greg should be able to grab rebounds over smaller defenders. Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kelly were pretty effective down low in the game against Duke.

If you figure Henry matches up with 6-10 Scott Saunders and Hollis or Nate goes on 6-9 Mick Hedgepath, that gives huge match up problems at the guard position. Their starting guards are 6-3 Kerron Johnson, 6-3 Ian Clark, and 5-11 Drew Henlen. 6-6 J.J. Mann, 6-7 Blake Jenkins, and 6-6 Brandon Baker are the reserves with the most minutes.

If Gtown can limit the number of 3s that Belmont takes, and get it inside to Henry, I dont think the pace should matter.

Duke's defense is not as good as ours. Not even close--KenPom has ours #7 and Duke's #62 (for comparison's sake, our D was ranked #58 last year and #47 the year before). The better comparison would be to watch their highlights against Memphis (KenPom #11) who made them miss a lot.

[SFHoya99]

Belmont is likely overrated by margin of victory systems. But they are still wildly under seeded. This is getting to be a habit for the committee, isn't it? Add in the fact that they press and shoot threes, and this is pretty much the worst draw we could have gotten as a 3 seed.

As for the Pomeroy stuff, I think the real lesson of those stats is that for a half, or even a game, 3pt shooting % is really erratic. Teams facing great defense can still shoot the lights out (or miss open shots). I'm not favoring Belmont but they are exactly the type of team you'd make to upset us if you only old play with their kind of talent.

I think the second round matchups are better, but Belmont is a tough matchup for a 3 seed. I hope our size overwhelms them, but I am not nearly as hopeful as some of you.

[sleepy]

Mar 12, 2012 0:36:22 GMT -5 SFHoya99 said:

Belmont is likely overrated by margin of victory systems. But they are still wildly under seeded. This is getting to be a habit for the committee, isn't it? Add in the fact that they press and shoot threes, and this is pretty much the worst draw we could have gotten as a 3 seed.

As for the Pomeroy stuff, I think the real lesson of those stats is that for a half, or even a game, 3pt shooting % is really erratic. Teams facing great defense can still shoot the lights out (or miss open shots). I'm not favoring Belmont but they are exactly the type of team you'd make to upset us if you only old play with their kind of talent.

I think the second round matchups are better, but Belmont is a tough matchup for a 3 seed. I hope our size overwhelms them, but I am not nearly as hopeful as some of you.

Have you read this thread? The overwhelming majority of posters seem prepared for a loss. The only way you're less hopeful that most of the posters in this thread/on this board is if your expecting the team to physically not show up in Ohio. In addition, there are so many analysts already picking the upset that I don't think anyone needs reminding.

[royski]

Is this a joke? Posters on this board were more confident in us beating Syracuse, IN SYRACUSE, than Belmont on a neutral court. If we can't beat this team, then we're obviously not very good anyway. Just take care of business, win, and move on to Sunday.

EDIT: A few things this Belmont JUGGERNAUT has done this season: Lost to a 9-21 Miami (OH) team. Got absolutely THROTTLED by Memphis, a team that we handled twice, the second time with ease. Lost by 11 at home to 13-18 Lipscomb. We can't beat these guys? Give me a break, get that Bruin off the damn pedestal.

[HoyaFanNY]

jason and hollis show up, we win easily. they don't, it will be a close game.

[hoyainspirit]

3:10 start time. That's going to cost about 2 billable hrs, since I'm quitting early on Friday. These games are getting expensive. Sometimes, like now, I wish I had a salary. Also, why did I give up drinking for Lent? At least the game's not on Thursday when I'm traveling.

[kchoya]

This has to be the most joyless fanbase of a three seed in the history of the tournament. If you can't enjoy this week, what's the point of being a fan? If the Hoyas lose, there will be plenty of time to whine/complain/etc. Until then...

[miracles87]

Ugh, I was hoping for 7pm or later. DVR it, hope I get out of work w/o finding out, trust the guys to MAKE THEIR FREE THROWS and move on.

Make no mistake men, I will hold you personally accountable if your missed Free Throws result in a premature ejectulation of the Hoyas in this tournament.

[williambraskyiii]

Mar 12, 2012 8:01:29 GMT -5 kchoya said:

This has to be the most joyless fanbase of a three seed in the history of the tournament. If you can't enjoy this week, what's the point of being a fan? If the Hoyas lose, there will be plenty of time to whine/complain/etc. Until then...

Agreed. The CasualHoya types always bash HoyaTalk for being just a bunch of joyless old farts that take cynicism and negativity to a whole 'nother level...I tend to think they overstate their case in most instances, but wow, people, we follow this team 24/7/365 largely for the three weeks that are set out in front of us. Can we at least TRY to enjoy the fact that John III and his stellar group of young men have (1) outperformed expectations in a huge way; (2) been exemplary representatives of the U and (3) have a chance to make some noise in the tournament?

[miracles87]

KC is absolutely correct. Belmont? I'm sorry, but this is the wrong time to be looking for glass slipper handouts from the Georgetown Hoya Men's Basketball Team. Every basketball conscious person in the Universe knows what is at stake for the Hoyas this Friday. It might not be fair, but this team is not just playing Belmont this week, they are playing VCU and that dope smoking dead-eye guard from Ohio too. There is no way Jason and Hollis and Henry don't feel this, they have to. JT3? Fuhgeddaboutit! I bet even Jack will feel a smidgen on the queasy side as he dines on flavored cardboard this week. All of the A-List b-ball talking head rubes speak of the Hoyas bracket like George Carlin on getting a new pet, "You know it's going to end badly, it's like buying a little Tragedy". Bottom line, we've all had this game churning in our gut like an F5 bout of post-Tombs indigestion, and it is time to end this madness, reverse the curse, and take back our good NCAA Tourney name. From the opening tip to the final whistle, Belmont is going to know what it is to be D'd into submission...

LET's GO HOYAS!!!

[GUJook97]

Look, I respect Ken Pomeroy's system, but can we please get past this nonsense that they are a much better team because he has them 23. They are high in offensive efficiency because they drop 100 points on Lipscomb and Kennesaw St. Who cares? Belmont is as good as any 14 seed. Im not overlooking them, but do you really think they are better than St Bonaventure or BYU or Iona? St Bonaventure beat 3 A10 teams in 3 days to win a conference that has 2 other tourney teams, that is more than Belmont did all year.

[GUJook97]

Mar 12, 2012 8:19:28 GMT -5 williambraskyiii said:

Mar 12, 2012 8:01:29 GMT -5 kchoya said:

This has to be the most joyless fanbase of a three seed in the history of the tournament. If you can't enjoy this week, what's the point of being a fan? If the Hoyas lose, there will be plenty of time to whine/complain/etc. Until then...

Agreed. The CasualHoya types always bash HoyaTalk for being just a bunch of joyless old farts that take cynicism and negativity to a whole 'nother level...I tend to think they overstate their case in most instances, but wow, people, we follow this team 24/7/365 largely for the three weeks that are set out in front of us. Can we at least TRY to enjoy the fact that John III and his stellar group of young men have (1) outperformed expectations in a huge way; (2) been exemplary representatives of the U and (3) have a chance to make some noise in the tournament?

It's sort of depressing to look back that that 2007 Belmont thread that was posted above. The majority of board fan base was actually confident in the team. A crazy thought.