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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Feb 11, 2011 12:29:58 GMT -5
Regime change is no fun unless you can spend the country into Bolivian.  |
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EasyEd
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Post by EasyEd on Feb 11, 2011 13:42:18 GMT -5
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 11, 2011 13:56:24 GMT -5
Suleiman announcing live on Nile TV that Mubarak has stepped down, miitary council to run the affairs of the country. Is it now time to end angry rioting, commence happy rioting? Let's send some UMCP students there as consultants on proper couch-burning. |
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Feb 11, 2011 14:08:47 GMT -5
That poll is based on data collected last year. The findings may be the same today, but caveat emptor. Polling in the Middle East has always been difficult, if not suspect. To the extent that democracy is the goal, I am relatively pleased with recent events. Change has been gradual but meaningful. |
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EasyEd
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Post by EasyEd on Feb 11, 2011 19:42:14 GMT -5
I'm sorry but that poll is scary even if it's a year old.
Ambassador, your comment "To the extent that democracy is the goal, I am relatively pleased with recent events" has enough qualifiers in it as to be virtually meaningless.
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Feb 11, 2011 20:12:25 GMT -5
Shame that similar polls did not get the attention of the political right before the Iraq War. That much is clear. As with that situation, I think if you're clear on what needs to happen in Egypt, odds are that you're wrong IMO.
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The Stig
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Post by The Stig on Feb 12, 2011 9:52:37 GMT -5
What's so scary about that poll? There are a lot of Americans who want more Christianity in politics.
The poll also makes it very clear that Egyptians are scared of radical Islam and oppose violence in the name of Islam.
Getting back to current events, watch from the 1:00 mark of this video:
That perfectly describes Egypt's situation right now.
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SSHoya
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Post by SSHoya on Feb 12, 2011 10:23:41 GMT -5
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EasyEd
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Post by EasyEd on Feb 12, 2011 10:28:39 GMT -5
Some examples of why the poll is scary.
1. 95% favor Islam playing a large role in politics.
2. 54% say suicide bombings are either rarely, sometimes or often justified.
3. 54% say men and women should be segregated in the workplace.
4. 82% say adulterers should be stoned.
5. 84% say apostates from Islam should face death penalty.
6. 77% say thieves should have their hands cut off.
Granted I have ignored some more favorable results but the figures above are scary.
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The Stig
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Post by The Stig on Feb 12, 2011 10:42:24 GMT -5
The suicide bombing is the only one that would be scary, but you've skewed that one pretty badly. 80% say suicide bombings are never justified or only rarely justified. As the survey notes, support for suicide bombings has also dropped considerably since they last took the poll.
For what it's worth, I think similar or even higher percentages of Americans would express support for terrorism if you asked the question right. The IRA was arguably more popular in the US than it ever was in Ireland.
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Feb 12, 2011 11:19:44 GMT -5
The political right in the US is also highly supportive of terrorist/militant rhetoric.
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Feb 12, 2011 11:48:01 GMT -5
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Feb 12, 2011 13:07:35 GMT -5
I was hoping a conservative would enjoy the satire. You must have no sense of humor. [/parodyofconservativesatiredefense] ;D Apologies for your oppression. |
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The Stig
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Post by The Stig on Feb 21, 2011 17:17:05 GMT -5
Meanwhile, Mummar Gadaffi has decided to show us how things could have gone in Egypt if Mubarak had been a monster and if the Egyptian military hadn't outright refused to fire on its own people.
From the sound of it, Libya has descended into mass chaos and near-civil war. Fighter jets have been attacking protesters, the Air Force has been ordered to carry out air raids on Benghazi, naval vessels are bombarding the shore, soldiers are firing anti-tank missiles into crowds, tanks are rolling through the streets, border guards have abandoned their posts, parts of the military are refusing to carry out orders, fighter pilots are fleeing the country with their jets, and Gadaffi has issued an order to execute any soldier who refuses to shoot the protesters.
It sounds like the eastern part of the country has fallen to to the protesters, but the government still has a pretty firm grip on Tripoli. This is going to get a lot bloodier.
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EasyEd
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Post by EasyEd on Feb 21, 2011 19:29:31 GMT -5
The entire Middle East is in danger ultimately of falling into the hands of Islamic extremists. May take a while, but look out.
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DFW HOYA
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Post by DFW HOYA on Feb 21, 2011 20:01:04 GMT -5
The entire Middle East is in danger ultimately of falling into the hands of Islamic extremists. May take a while, but look out. I'm not buying the Glenn Beck Caliphate argument. More likely, these countries stand to fall back into the hand of military dictatorships, which is how a lot of these strongmen came to power to begin with. The monarchies and emirates are a slightly different story, but they have their own issues to deal with. The challenge in this region is how few countries have any legacy of representative government. Between the Phoenicians, Greeks, Romans, Arabs, Ottomans, Italians, a brief monarchy, and Col. Khadafi, how do you build a democracy in Libya where there was never one to begin with? |
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Feb 21, 2011 21:26:22 GMT -5
I think the caliphate "argument" is also overstated, much like the ideas that all humans seek democracy, democracy is God's will, and democracy brings peace.
What things like the Iraq War have done is destabilize the Middle East, making sectarian violence more likely and threatening regime stability - all without much consideration of what these things do to our national security and economic interests.
The western experience with democracy has largely been one where economic changes (industrialization) have seemingly been necessary for democracy to occur. In the Middle East, we're often looking at 1-2 trick ponies on the economic front - not exactly the stuff of what the west saw even in 1789 and 1776.
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The Stig
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Post by The Stig on Feb 21, 2011 21:30:20 GMT -5
The problem with the Glenn Beck Caliphate argument is that the last Arab Islamist regime was... the Caliphate.
Modern Arabs have shown no inclination towards accepting an Islamist regime. Some want more religion in their politics, but no more so than what you find in the Christian Right here in the US.
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Feb 21, 2011 21:35:47 GMT -5
That may be the case, but where I get kind of lost with the political right is that I thought democracy was the goal. We invaded a country for the express purpose of allowing democratic and popular foment to domino through the Middle East and spent hundreds of billions of dollars to make the magic happen. Is now the time to cut and run on our support for democratic regime change in the Middle East (defined very broadly)?
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Post by hoyawatcher on Feb 21, 2011 21:53:14 GMT -5
The problem with the Glenn Beck Caliphate argument is that the last Arab Islamist regime was... the Caliphate. Modern Arabs have shown no inclination towards accepting an Islamist regime. Some want more religion in their politics, but no more so than what you find in the Christian Right here in the US. I think most would agree the current Iranian regime qualifies as an Islamist regime. Regardless of whether the middle class and younger Iranians want an Islamist regime that's what they got. I would agree that the middle class and younger "educated" Egyptians don't want an Islamist regime similar to Iran. However, we will soon see whether that block can remain united in the face of a strong Muslim Brotherhood effort to control/be a major player in Egyptian politics. Their pronouncements don't give a lot of comfort. And the idea that campaigns for Sharia law is the same as what the US religious right wants is both offensive and laughable. |
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