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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Jan 28, 2011 10:31:25 GMT -5
Thoughts/prayers out to SSHoya, who, if I remember correctly, is somewhere in Egypt. It would be great to hear from someone with regional expertise about the recent events.
El Baradei seems like a responsible person to lead if it comes to that.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Jan 28, 2011 10:37:00 GMT -5
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SirSaxa
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Post by SirSaxa on Jan 28, 2011 11:24:55 GMT -5
Interesting perspective on Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen by Anthony Cordesman, a non-partisan expert on Global Security issues with CSIS. Excerpts
The unrest in Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen – and indeed, the governing turmoil in Iraq – highlight a critical problem in how the west deals with fractured and failing states. To date, there has been too much focus on demonstrations and too little on the fact that changes in regimes that do not deal with the underlying causes of the protests are simply going to substitute one form of failed regime for another.
The very failures that have suddenly unleashed such passion have left much of the Arab world without the kind of political parties and leaders that can work together and bridge sectarian and tribal differences. They have also prompted uprisings whose voices know what they are against but are not so sure what they are for.
Egypt’s opposition is fractured and inexperienced. The Muslim Brotherhood is the strongest political alternative, but is weak and more ideological than practical. It is far from clear that removing President Hosni Mubarak, or holding elections, can produce a new government that can meet the expectations of demonstrators. They want real jobs, an end to corruption, fair income distribution, and police and rule of law that serves the people and not the regime. Cordesman Commentary in FT |
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Jan 28, 2011 12:32:55 GMT -5
Latest reports indicate that protestors have set fire to the NDP headquarters and are storming the Foreign Ministry. Secretary of State Clinton has urged Mubarek to turn the Internet back on, which may be a hint as to how this is tracking in our intelligence.
Thanks for the take from FT. It seems logical and probably drew attention in DC. What seems counter-intuitive about our ME policy over the past decade (at least) is that we have assumed that democracy/protests/regime changes would necessarily advance our interests in the region. Anything but, it seems...
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SSHoya
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Post by SSHoya on Jan 28, 2011 13:23:07 GMT -5
The curfew that had only been Cairo, Alexandria and Suez has been extended nationwide. I am scheduled to depart for Tel Aviv tomorrow morning and haven't been told that I'm not going. There have been demonstrations in the towns north of my location and some reports of gunfire. (We were warned that the demonstrator were to attempt to march on our main gate on Thursday, but it did not happen). El Baradei is reportedly under house arrest. His problem is that he hasn't lived in Egypt in years (still lives in Vienna) and lacks street cred. Mubarak was supposed to have addressed the nation about an hour ago and it hasn't happened yet. The protestors have surrounded the state run TV and radio station.
I really have to get to Tel Aviv -- fully intend to see GU-Nova at Mike's Place, a sports bar next to the US Embassy !!!
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Jan 28, 2011 13:26:45 GMT -5
Good luck, SS. Reports here on mainstream media are that Mubarek may not want to risk getting to the tv station or that he has actually fled Egypt. Reports confirmed that El Baradei is under house arrest and that the Army is not enforcing the curfew.
On Edit: Egypt Air has suspended outgoing flights from Cairo. May want to check with your airline...
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theexorcist
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Post by theexorcist on Jan 28, 2011 13:47:33 GMT -5
The curfew that had only been Cairo, Alexandria and Suez has been extended nationwide. I am scheduled to depart for Tel Aviv tomorrow morning and haven't been told that I'm not going. There have been demonstrations in the towns north of my location and some reports of gunfire. (We were warned that the demonstrator were to attempt to march on our main gate on Thursday, but it did not happen). El Baradei is reportedly under house arrest. His problem is that he hasn't lived in Egypt in years (still lives in Vienna) and lacks street cred. Mubarak was supposed to have addressed the nation about an hour ago and it hasn't happened yet. The protestors have surrounded the state run TV and radio station. I really have to get to Tel Aviv -- fully intend to see GU-Nova at Mike's Place, a sports bar next to the US Embassy !!! Mike's Place is great. Been there quite a few times. Get the chicken quesadillas. |
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Post by Coast2CoastHoya on Jan 28, 2011 14:20:54 GMT -5
The curfew that had only been Cairo, Alexandria and Suez has been extended nationwide. I am scheduled to depart for Tel Aviv tomorrow morning and haven't been told that I'm not going. There have been demonstrations in the towns north of my location and some reports of gunfire. (We were warned that the demonstrator were to attempt to march on our main gate on Thursday, but it did not happen). El Baradei is reportedly under house arrest. His problem is that he hasn't lived in Egypt in years (still lives in Vienna) and lacks street cred. Mubarak was supposed to have addressed the nation about an hour ago and it hasn't happened yet. The protestors have surrounded the state run TV and radio station. I really have to get to Tel Aviv -- fully intend to see GU-Nova at Mike's Place, a sports bar next to the US Embassy !!! Good luck and best wishes for your safety, SS. And good luck getting to watch Hoyas @ 'nova! |
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Jan 28, 2011 14:24:49 GMT -5
I am happy to see that amid crisis and turmoil, SS is clearly keeping his priorities straight!
;D
Stay safe, Hoya!
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Jan 28, 2011 14:29:13 GMT -5
Apparently there were small scale protests in Jordan today to protest high unemployment, economic conditions, etc. Internet also went down in Syria, but unclear whether that is related to the service denials in Egypt.
AP is reporting that US aid to Egypt will be under review. It sounds like the administration thinks they can help destabilize the regime. Not sure that is a good call given how some of these democratic protests seem motivated by the Islamist constituencies in Egypt. Long term, it seems like a challenge to American credibility - democracy in many places in the ME means a challenge to our security and national interest, but how do we cut bait after the Iraq War rhetoric?
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SSHoya
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Post by SSHoya on Jan 28, 2011 14:48:30 GMT -5
Boz, always have my priorities straight. Managed to see 2 games live both losses, so I'm hoping for a different result this time. Maybe run into some other Hoyas at Mike's (one of the docs on base is a Hoya from the Med School).
Ambassador, taking ground transportation (bus) but will have armed escort vehicle to the border and an armed soldier aboard our bus to the int'l border. Only takes a little over an hour to reach the border but the border crossing going through Egyptian and Israeli authorities can take awhile. On Wednesday, the route to the border was blocked by protestors but I think we should be good to go tomorrow.
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JB5
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Post by JB5 on Jan 28, 2011 14:53:34 GMT -5
AP is reporting that US aid to Egypt will be under review. It sounds like the administration thinks they can help destabilize the regime. Not sure that is a good call given how some of these democratic protests seem motivated by the Islamist constituencies in Egypt. Almost 85% of U.S. aid to Egypt (2010) is military/security assistance (source: State Department). With Egypt's security forces in a position to suppress popular protest, it is certainly consistent with U.S. policies of promoting peace and democracy to reconsider the continuation of such assistance. It is something of a Catch 22 that security assistance could uphold an increasingly repressive regime, or lack thereof could lead to increased violence and an upsurge of radical Islamism. Unfortunately, with the development of real democratic alternatives stiffiled, religious groups provide the only organized option for many Egyptians. |
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Jan 28, 2011 14:55:02 GMT -5
JE3, great point. Richard Engel noted earlier that tear gas canisters found in Cairo were clearly marked as "Made in the USA." Agree with them or not, this was probably not lost on the protestors.
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Post by hoyawatcher on Jan 28, 2011 14:55:22 GMT -5
How can US Aid to Egypt be under review when Biden says Mubarik is not a dictator  In some seriousness that doesn't seem like a smart move as we have made our bed over the last 40 years in Egypt and trying to get off the bus at the last minute makes no sense at all. (if indeed this is the last minute and indeed we are trying to get off the bus) Us dumping Mubarik and watching the Muslim Brotherhood establishing the next government would be a muck up for the ages. The whole situation there makes me really nervous on a whole lot of levels. But probably not as nervous as SSHoya. Good luck tomorrow. |
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SirSaxa
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Post by SirSaxa on Jan 28, 2011 15:50:36 GMT -5
Take care SS. Situation sounds VERY fluid.
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Post by AustinHoya03 on Jan 28, 2011 15:52:08 GMT -5
Godspeed, SSHoya.
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Jan 28, 2011 16:37:31 GMT -5
Israeli Press (unconfirmed) has reported that Mubarek fled to Switzerland. Tweets now that an announcement of some news is expected shortly from the Speaker of Egyptian Parliament.
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The Stig
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Post by The Stig on Jan 28, 2011 19:41:26 GMT -5
SSHoya - Glad to hear you're OK. Drop a note in hear when you're out of the country, so we all know you got out safely!
Mubarak's speech made it clear he doesn't intend to go anywhere. We'll see tomorrow if he has any choice.
The US is in a very awkward position here, just like we were in an awkward position with Tunisia. If Syria (for example) cracked down on its protesters like this, we'd hammer them for it. But Mubarak is a guy we've propped up for a long time, and frankly it's hard to fault the logic behind doing so. He was predictable, he kept the Islamists in check, and he didn't cause trouble with Israel.
Furthermore, it's not exactly clear who would succeed Mubarak, and that instability is dangerous in that part of the world. El-Baradei is well-respected abroad, but his base of support in Egypt is generally the well-educated middle class, which is a tiny portion of the Egyptian population. The Muslim Brotherhood has a broad base of support, but not among the younger educated types who were leading the protests. There's almost nothing in terms of Islamist messages in these protests. Ultimately the protesters want somebody who can deliver jobs and progress. The Brotherhood doesn't have much of a record on either of those.
Ultimately the fate of Egypt lies with the military. The forces cracking down on the protesters today were NOT the Egyptian military - they were the police and the security forces. The Egyptian military is strong, pro-American, and widely respected in the country. When the tanks showed up on the streets tonight, the protesters cheered them. At the same time, Mubarak came from the military, as did the two Presidents who preceded him.
Ultimately, I think Mubarak will have to order the military to shoot the protesters. Whether the military follows that order is far from certain. In Tunisia Ben Ali supposedly gave the same order, and the military refused to do it. They military eventually turned on Ben Ali and likely played a major role in forcing him from power. There's a chance that the Egyptian military could do the same.
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EasyEd
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Post by EasyEd on Jan 28, 2011 20:01:41 GMT -5
Any time you have an uprising of the sort we see in Egypt there is always a strong possibility, but no certainty, you ultimately end up with a fundamentalist Islamic regime. Unfortunately the best thing the U.S. can do is to lay low and do nothing overtly. Covertly, perhaps we are better off providing assistance to Mubarak but I don't have the intel info the State Dept. has so I'll have to trust them to do (or not do) what's in the best interests of the U.S.
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The Stig
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Post by The Stig on Jan 28, 2011 21:05:34 GMT -5
The problem with supporting Mubarak is the risk of blowback. These protests certainly were NOT anti-American to start. But the riot police throw tear gas at the protesters, the protesters pick up the tear gas canisters and read "MADE IN THE USA" written on the canisters. Suddenly the protesters who had no beef with the US suddenly start shouting anti-American slogans.
Are there risks with turning on Mubarak? Absolutely. Suddenly a US promise of support to a foreign leader doesn't mean nearly as much. Friendly foreign leaders who would otherwise give us unconditional support slowly start hedging their bets, hoping to get in the good graces of other countries (like China) who will support them no matter what, even when they shoot their own people.
I think the US's lay low attitude is probably the best (i.e. least bad) choice right now.
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In some seriousness that doesn't seem like a smart move as we have made our bed over the last 40 years in Egypt and trying to get off the bus at the last minute makes no sense at all. (if indeed this is the last minute and indeed we are trying to get off the bus) Us dumping Mubarik and watching the Muslim Brotherhood establishing the next government would be a muck up for the ages.