theexorcist
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by theexorcist on Feb 3, 2011 8:33:32 GMT -5
Stig has articulated my concerns about El Baradei better than I could. I don't see him as a politician with a deep natural constituency. For all his warts Mubarak has deep constituencies in the Army and parts of the population which allow him to function. IMHO without getting into a Editeding match over whether he was a good technocrat or a bad technocrat at the IAEA, he isn't the engaging politician who can hold this movement together once the Mubarak bogeyman is gone. The problem and the logic loop I have trouble getting over is what Stig stated. Mubarak has spent the last 30 years making sure there isn't anyone else with the ability to take over. And now he/we/the Egyptian people are paying the piper. I have an aversion to the idea put forth by the US Administration that the transfer HAS to happen NOW. I don't think Egypt is ready for it and I see visions of Iran and even Lebanon with a transfer to an immature political structure. But the obvious con is whether those structures can be put in place between now and September - even if Mubarak wanted to put them in place. They normally take decades or at least years. When you take the genie out of the bottle and allow elections you are going to legitimize the Muslim Brotherhood. Being able to control them when that happens is not an easy thing to do politically. The recent examples of power sharing in Lebanon and Gaza are not encouraging. Rumors are coming out that Mubarak has now left Cairo and Suleiman is running things, with the army expected to take power by tomorrow. The transfer may not have to happen now, but it looks like it's going to happen soon, whether or not anyone specifically wants it to. |
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EasyEd
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Post by EasyEd on Feb 3, 2011 10:30:56 GMT -5
Why can't the President and Secretary of State, not to mention the Vice President, just shut the hell up about Egypt? This business of issuing statements based on how things appear to be going is not helpful. The Egyptians will decide this, one way or another. Not the U.S.
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Post by hoyawatcher on Feb 3, 2011 11:19:33 GMT -5
Haven't seen the story on Mubarak leaving but I would be surprised given his past statement and actions. But on the other side the revolutionary groups made a decision not to negotiate with Suleiman about the transition until Mubarak was gone. The WSJ had a very enlightening article (at least to me) on the infrastructure that has been put together to drive and control the uprising. The upside is there is more political infrastructure than my earlier post gave credit for. The downside is that the Muslim Brotherhood is already a big player and i am not sure I am enamoured with any of the others. But not up to me. online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704775604576120443506757576.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStoriesI do have to admit my perception of the Muslim Brotherhood after reading the article is they are simply biding their time until Mubarak is gone and the rest of the opposition splinters. Once the bogeyman goes this will get real interesting between the opposition parties. Not to mention the existing party which isn't going to simply go away. |
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SirSaxa
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Post by SirSaxa on Feb 3, 2011 13:45:45 GMT -5
Haven't seen the story on Mubarak leaving but I would be surprised given his past statement and actions. But on the other side the revolutionary groups made a decision not to negotiate with Suleiman about the transition until Mubarak was gone. The WSJ had a very enlightening article (at least to me) on the infrastructure that has been put together to drive and control the uprising. The upside is there is more political infrastructure than my earlier post gave credit for. The downside is that the Muslim Brotherhood is already a big player and i am not sure I am enamoured with any of the others. But not up to me. online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704775604576120443506757576.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStoriesI do have to admit my perception of the Muslim Brotherhood after reading the article is they are simply biding their time until Mubarak is gone and the rest of the opposition splinters. Once the bogeyman goes this will get real interesting between the opposition parties. Not to mention the existing party which isn't going to simply go away. Not to mention the Army, which has been the leading political force for the past 60 years. |
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Feb 3, 2011 14:44:14 GMT -5
Does anyone know why certain commentators are suggesting that Obama is part of the "Muslim Brotherhood?" What are we supposed to take away from this talking point?
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TBird41
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"Roy! I Love All 7'2" of you Roy!"
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Post by TBird41 on Feb 3, 2011 15:31:17 GMT -5
Does anyone know why certain commentators are suggesting that Obama is part of the "Muslim Brotherhood?" What are we supposed to take away from this talking point? What commentators? |
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Feb 3, 2011 15:48:18 GMT -5
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theexorcist
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by theexorcist on Feb 3, 2011 16:18:22 GMT -5
Please read the article again. He doesn't say that Obama is a member of the Muslim Brotherhood, he says that Obama's in league with the Muslim Brotherhood. There's a BIG difference. If you want Mubarak to fall, you're pretty much in league with the Muslim Brotherhood, because the second Mubarak/the army allows free elections, the Muslim Brotherhood wins. From that definition, I'm in league with the Muslim Brotherhood. It's a cheap shot, but hey, politics is nasty. The points that are raised by the conservative commentators are that Obama and all who are OK with the MB coming to power underestimate its appeal and believe that it will be OK to worth with, when at its heart its too radical and dangerous. At least some HoyaTalkers - including you, Mr. "things are too dangerous to have elections right now" - have taken this view. I take the opposing one - that the MB is better than Mubarak. Flushing this up as some huge "the right sees Obama as a secret Muslim, so favoring the Muslim Brotherhood means that he's favoring the bad side" is erroneous. If Mubarak falls and the Muslim Brotherhood takes power - both "ifs" - nobody knows what's going to happen. There's been examples in both Gaza and Iran of radical regimes winning elections and not moderating - if that's the case, and the US kicked Mubarak off to lead to a Muslim Brotherhood regime, then we're screwed and D'Souza and Gaffney are right (they use inflammatory language about the US in Iraq as an occupying force, but that's their basic point). I do love that you want to take this and make it a domestic political issue. So, how does the Syracuse point-shaving non-issue mean that Republicans are evil? |
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Feb 3, 2011 16:25:00 GMT -5
I don't think your rationalization fully squares with Gaffney's clarification/description of others in the administration.
"questionable people who are sympathetic to the program of the stealth jihadists who have influence with the United States government."
He is making his point, and I think we now know what it is. Perhaps someone should wake him up to the extensive literature concerning who armed the mujahideen and Saddam Hussein, including with chemical weapons.
My concern is that democracy would legitimize the MB even if they are a minority party. All told, my position is that I think Mubarek may be preferable to a democratic option, which is more likely to destabilize the region and lead to terror/armed conflict. If the Egyptians choose democracy, then my only hope is that it is done right since an unsuccessful election could undermine confidence in that kind of system.
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theexorcist
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Post by theexorcist on Feb 3, 2011 16:38:16 GMT -5
I don't think your rationalization fully squares with Gaffney's clarification/description of others in the administration. "questionable people who are sympathetic to the program of the stealth jihadists who have influence with the United States government." He is making his point, and I think we now know what it is. Perhaps someone should wake him up to the extensive literature concerning who armed the mujahideen and Saddam Hussein, including with chemical weapons. My concern is that democracy would legitimize the MB even if they are a minority party. All told, my position is that I think Mubarek may be preferable to a democratic option, which is more likely to destabilize the region and lead to terror/armed conflict. You can think what you want to think about his point. People are sympathetic to the Muslim Brotherhood, including, I guarantee you, people at the State Department and working Egypt issues at the NSC. Gaffney considers the Muslim Brotherhood "stealth jihadists" - and some of its leaders have been quoted as some nasty things. Based on your last paragraph, you agree with Gaffney - he's just using more inflammatory rhetoric than you. The MB continue to exist primarily as an opposition group, and, without power, are unable to do anything. So we don't know what the Muslim Brotherhood will do if they win. And it's a conversation people have been having as this effort has continued. I'll go back to my last post - anyone who wants democracy in Egypt is, at least in theory, backing the MB to some extent. |
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theexorcist
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Post by theexorcist on Feb 3, 2011 16:40:15 GMT -5
I'll add separately that this "the right thought Obama was a secret Muslim, so if he works with the MB it means they're still racist!" approach is a really bad idea. If the MB is inimical to American interests, people have to be able to say that without being dismissed as whacko Birthers.
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Feb 3, 2011 16:45:52 GMT -5
The bad idea is to put folks like Gaffney (strawman on this weird racist comment) on the airwaves so they can peddle their conspiracy theories, and he was not saying the MB is inimical to US interests alone. He was adding to the stealth jihadist narrative that is widely popular in conservative circles and rejected this week by many conservatives, including a former President. Gaffney has an opportunity to explain himself, and hopefully he can do so articulately. I would suggest a defense of "it was a cheap shot but at least it does not appear to be racist" may not work.
They have better things to do on the Republican side, like learn how to create some jobs - they owe America about 8 million of those.
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Post by flyoverhoya on Feb 3, 2011 17:15:17 GMT -5
Does anyone know why certain commentators are suggesting that Obama is part of the "Muslim Brotherhood?" What are we supposed to take away from this talking point? I don't take much away from it other than the fact that Gaffney's a loon. He's also an SFS grad, which makes him our loon, unfortunately. |
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SSHoya
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Post by SSHoya on Feb 10, 2011 12:19:15 GMT -5
Nile TV (State run) anticipating Mubarak announcement tonight. Other reports indicate that he is stepping down will transfer power to Army. We will see.
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Post by redskins12820 on Feb 10, 2011 14:35:00 GMT -5
If Egypt is the new Tunisia, which is the new Arizona shooting, which is the new BP oil spill, which is the new Haiti, any guesses what the new Egypt is? It's amazing how quickly we switch around the clock news coverage and just leave absolutely everything before it in the dust. Give it 3 weeks and we won't hear a peep about Egypt.
One shocking thing about this whole incident is how quickly Obama threw Mubarak, as one of our longtime allies, under the bus. And this is coming from a liberal.
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EasyEd
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Post by EasyEd on Feb 10, 2011 19:31:46 GMT -5
Guess Mubarak surprised all today.
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SSHoya
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"Forget it Jake, it's Chinatown."
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Post by SSHoya on Feb 11, 2011 11:03:54 GMT -5
Suleiman announcing live on Nile TV that Mubarak has stepped down, miitary council to run the affairs of the country.
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rosslynhoya
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Post by rosslynhoya on Feb 11, 2011 11:09:02 GMT -5
Suleiman announcing live on Nile TV that Mubarak has stepped down, miitary council to run the affairs of the country. Is it now time to end angry rioting, commence happy rioting? |
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SSHoya
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Post by SSHoya on Feb 11, 2011 11:13:00 GMT -5
That's hapening in the streets right now. I am getting a bumper sticker for my car "I survived the Egyptian Revolution!"
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Post by Coast2CoastHoya on Feb 11, 2011 11:25:40 GMT -5
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