2010 Midterm Election Prediction Contest

[jerseyhoya34]

Those 2 are not unexpected at this point - Conway probably ruined his campaign, as the Rev. Wright stuff ruined HRC and McCain/Palin, by drawing attention to Paul's exotic background. It made for comedy but not for votes.

Unfortunately, it looks like Reid may survive, and the Senate will be 53/54 Dems (according to early exit polls).

[Boz]

I am not surprised that Paul won, of course, just that he won so easily.

Also surprised at WV. Again, not that Manchin won, but by the margin. Congratulations, Joe. Bring your rifle!!!

On a related note, can I pick 'em or can I pick 'em. Sheesh! My House races are all dead even (well, except Caliguri, but I think that'll end up being close too).

[jerseyhoya34]

I am surprised by how long some of these House races are taking. The Connolly race in VA and Joe Wilson race in SC are particularly interesting at this stage of the night.

Should Connolly hang on (big if), his colleagues - Rick Boucher and Glenn Nye - would do well to ask if things would have been different with an aye vote on HCR. We can debate HCR all we want, but a no vote on something like that alienates the base and does not attract Republican votes anyway.

On Edit: The Republicans should be proud of the gains thus far and will hopefully bring some new ideas to the table as to how best to deal with the economic mess.

[Boz]

Nov 2, 2010 21:27:45 GMT -5 @jerseyhoya34 said:

On Edit: The Republicans should be proud of the gains thus far and will hopefully bring some new ideas to the table as to how best to deal with the economic mess.

I think you can expect Jim DeMint and Paul Ryan to do that. Whether or not the Minority/Majority leaders (respectively) will go along with them remains to be seen.

[jerseyhoya34]

I hope Ryan at least can get some respect within his caucus. His ideas do not seem to be promoted by the more professional politicians on his side of the aisle. I disagree with 99% of Ryan's ideas, but at least he has some. Whether his colleagues do remains to be seen.

[DFW HOYA]

In Texas, Rick Perry won easily. (By the speech he just gave, perhaps he did a little celebrating already. )

What was once the most reliably Democratic state in the nation has elected a Republican governor for 20 of the last 24 years and Republicans control every statewide office.

Unless you're in the Austin city limits or the Valley, it's a big night for the GOP. That's a big issue for upcoming redistricting. Only nine of 32 Congressional seats will be filled by Democrats in the next session.

[derhoya]

Side note: anyone notice how CNN borrowed the "John Adams" theme song from HBO? Bugged me forever until I looked up the theme.

[TC]

Cantor's job tonight seems to be to go on cable news and not have anything to go to when asked what he'd cut. I've watched him get hammered on MSNBC and CNN.

[Boz]

Nov 2, 2010 22:41:38 GMT -5 derhoya said:

Side note: anyone notice how CNN borrowed the "John Adams" theme song from HBO? Bugged me forever until I looked up the theme.

Yeah, William Bennett pointed that out for me at the beginning of the night.

[AustinHoya03]

Nov 2, 2010 22:18:49 GMT -5 DFW HOYA said:

Unless you're in Dallas County, the Austin city limits or the Valley, it's a big night for the GOP. That's a big issue for upcoming redistricting. Only nine of 32 Congressional seats will be filled by Democrats in the next session.

Fixed that for you. With most precincts reporting, the numbers indicate 53% of voters in Dallas County voted a straight Democratic ticket. Bill White pulled 55% of the Dallas vote to Perry's 42%. Even the joke Democratic candidates in down-ballot races did well in Big D.

Remember 2008? Now add 2010. Dallas county is safe territory for Democrats. Good thing Republicans will keep it sliced and diced to their advantage...

On Edit: DEMOCRATS MAINTAIN THEIR DOMINANCE IN DALLAS COUNTY in The Dallas Morning News

www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/latestnews/stories/110310dnmetdalcounty.2342b1d.html

[TC]

Oct 31, 2010 21:14:53 GMT -5 ScreamingHoya said:

Nevada Senate: Harry Reid

Every mainstream analyst I've heard in the past week has said that this is an unbelievably close race that will probably end up with Reid losing. While I agree that this will be extremely close, I think Reid wins in a squeaker for one reason. In Nevada, there is a space on the ballot for "none of the above"- you can literally go in and file a protest vote and vote for nobody.

Out of all the picks, this one seems like the boldest one that came through.

[vcjack]

Looks like Reid is going to hang on but Kirk* and Toomey win.

Interesting, I thought much of the movement to the Republicans would have come west of the Mississippi not the other way around.

*While Hoya Pat Quinn might hang on by the slimmest of slim margins but every contentious House race going for the Republicans. Strange election in Illinois

[TC]

10-0! When's the next flight to Vegas?

Screaming Hoya's picks, sans Herseth-Sandlin were more impressive though. Looks like he nailed Reid/Murray/Bennet which is like the Triple Axel of this contest, he just had a fall at the end and the East German judge penalized him for it.

[Boz]

Nov 3, 2010 7:59:28 GMT -5 TC said:

10-0! When's the next flight to Vegas?

Screaming Hoya's picks, sans Herseth-Sandlin were more impressive though. Looks like he nailed Reid/Murray/Bennet which is like the Triple Axel of this contest, he just had a fall at the end and the East German judge penalized him for it.

Yup. I still have three races undecided as of this morning, but since I lost Angle and two congressional seats, I concede the victory. I shoulda' played it a little safer (why venture into New England at all??? People like Jack live there!) but it was all good fun.

Pretty sure I'm gonna win the tiebreaker though

As it was a very good night for politicians I like overall, I happily accept my loser's penalty. Really too bad we couldn't get rid of Harry though. (I wonder if Barack Obama is saying the same thing this morning )

I think we're a pretty long way from knowing whether Screaming Hoya nailed his triple axel though.

[Jack]

Nov 3, 2010 8:09:53 GMT -5 Boz said:

I shoulda' played it a little safer (why venture into New England at all??? People like Jack live there!) but it was all good fun.

Looks like most of us got our silly "angry" vote out of our system with Scott Brown. Would that the rest of the country had that opportunity/were so mature.

[TC]

Nov 3, 2010 9:16:50 GMT -5 Jack said:

Looks like most of us got our silly "angry" vote out of our system with Scott Brown.

Scott Brown is probably the only Republican who looks at this election and has to get really, really concerned. I'm guessing he's a more reliable Democratic vote than Lieberman from here on in.

[Boz]

Speaking of which, how reliable a vote for the Democrats is Joe Manchin going to be, at least in the next couple of years, before he has to run for re-election again?

Buck has conceded. Carly Fiorina has not (WTF???)

Alex Sink has also conceded.

EDIT: New - nauseating - signature included. Congratulations on the win, TC.

The rest of you can do your own scoring. I have to go hang my head in shame and hope none of the bands, bars or promoters I work with ever see this.

EDIT2: My bad, Buck is not conceding yet. Not surprising in a race that is running closer than a 1% difference. When it's that close, I think you do wait until all the votes are counted.

Still no idea what Carly Fiorina is thinking though.

[SirSaxa]

Nov 3, 2010 10:11:17 GMT -5 Boz said:

Still no idea what Carly Fiorina is thinking though.

Apparently, she's thinking about as clearly as she did as CEO of HP.

Oh, and Screaming Hoya and TC.. congratulations.

[prhoya]

("Maybe, if I would've pumped more money into it, I would've won.")

[Buckets]

Nov 3, 2010 9:16:50 GMT -5 Jack said:

Nov 3, 2010 8:09:53 GMT -5 Boz said:

I shoulda' played it a little safer (why venture into New England at all??? People like Jack live there!) but it was all good fun.

Looks like most of us got our silly "angry" vote out of our system with Scott Brown. Would that the rest of the country had that opportunity/were so mature.

Speaking of Scott Brown, the Alaskan election reminded me of this from shortly after Joe Miller's primary victory:

Sarah Palin, a former vice presidential nominee and GOP lightning rod, says that while Massachusetts may "put up with” Senator Scott Brown, the conservatives in her home state of Alaska “wouldn’t stand for” his more moderate views, a criticism that strikes at the core of discord among top national Republicans over how closely to hew to the conservative Tea Party movement.

...

“But up here in Alaska, and so many places in the US where we have a pioneering, independent spirit, and we have an expectation that our representatives in D.C. will respect the will of the people and the intelligence of the people,” she added. “Well, up here, we wouldn't stand for that.”