2010 Midterm Election Prediction Contest

[Boz]

OK, because I believe gambling for fun should be allowed for anything and everything (actually, I believe gambling for money should be allowed on anything and everything, but I'm just not wealthy enough to do it), here we go.....

TC and I are going to have a bet on some of the exciting midterm races (winner gets to choose the loser's Hoyatalk signature for two weeks), but I thought we would open it up for all of Hoyatalk to participate.

2010 Hoyatalk Midterm Election Prediction Contest

Here are the rules for the contest:

1. Choose any 10 races for the 2010 elections and pick a winner. No point spreads, just winners.

2. Elections are limited to the House, Senate and Governor's races. (I don't really care if they legalize pot in California or who they elect to the school board in Wichita.)

3. Regardless of your personal politics, you may pick a winner from either party (or from the "Rent Is Too Damn High" party if you really want to). I think it'll be more fun if conservatives pick Republicans and liberals pick Democrats, but that is entirely up to you.

4. To keep it competitive, you are only allowed to pick a candidate who is trailing or who is ahead by 8 points or fewer according to the RCP average.*

[For example, TC could pick Kendrick Meek, but he could not pick Marco Rubio. Similarly, I could pick Christine O'Donnell, but I could not pick Chris Coons. etc., etc., etc.]

* I don't think the RCP averages will change much over the next few days, but we'll use the average as of Monday, Nov. 1, for the purposes of keeping everything consistent.

5. Picks must be in before any polls open on Tuesday, Nov. 2. To be safe, I'd say try to get your picks in by midnight Pacific on Monday.

6. Winner, obviously, is the person who gets the most picks correct.

7. Tiebreaker: In the event of likely ties, your tiebreaker prediction will be the total number of Republican gains in the House and Senate combined. Closest to the actual number (above or below) wins. If people are still tied after that, well then at that point, we shake hands and say, "Good show."


Prize for general participation will have to be bragging rights, unless someone can come up with a good grand prize (perhaps a date with Kelly Baltazar to the overall winner??). If any of you want to do your own side bets like TC and me, knock yourselves out.

If you want to do bonus picks, feel free, but make sure you identify which are your ten picks for the purposes of the contest.

(And yes, I realize it's likely we might not know the winner of this contest for weeks, once the lawyers parachute D-Day style down onto any election decided by less than 5 points.)


TC, I'm going to try to get my picks in on Saturday or -- since Saturday is really Halloween for all intents and purposes [read: drinking] -- more likely Sunday. (You can bet Kristi Noem will be one of them. She's no Nikki Haley, but she's still hot! And I can't pick Haley anyway.)

[TC]

Here's my picks :

Locks (within 8 points)
Lincoln Chafee
Jerry Brown

Others
Deval Patrick
Barbara Boxer
Daniel Webster over Grayson
Rigell over Nye
Hanabusa over Djou
Keating over Perry in MA-10
Abercrombie over Aiona
Toomey over Sestak
Manchin

Republicans : 61 seat gains, a full Roger Maris

Monday edit : after getting called by MoveOn.org twice to come volunteer for Keating and to try to convince me to vote for Keating (I'm in MA-09, not MA-10) and getting an email from those same morons that I should "drop whatever you're doing and sign up to volunteer TODAY for the Bill Keating campaign" (it was Halloween and I was carving a pumpkin with my 4 year old, and the email never even mentions that it's Halloween), I'm switching my guess from Keating to Manchin. I still think Keating wins - the molestation thing is gonna haunt Perry with independents, but I'm not betting on a race where outside groups working on the campaign seem desperate and inept.

If we were going deep on this (to 30 or so), I'd also bet against Kratovil and any of the other Dems in the House that voted against both HCR and Cap and Trade. I went with the guy running against Nye, but if there's a sure way of making sure Democrats don't show up to vote for you it's to vote against everything they proposed.

[hoyainspirit]

Man, that's a lot of rules. This is regulation run amok. What are you, a Democrat?

[Boz]

Don't forget your tiebreaker, TC.



(Hoyainspirit....well played. )

[Boz]

GUBERNATORIAL RACES

Rick Scott over Alex Sink (FL Governor; RCP – Tie)
I think Marco Rubio’s race helps lift Scott in this one and the Crist-Meek debacle hurts Sink.

John Kasich over Ted Strickland (OH Governor; RCP = Kasich +3.2)
Ohio’s economy spells doom for Strickland.

SENATE RACES

Ken Buck over Michael Bennet (CO Senate; RCP = Buck +2.3)
This was a last minute change over the weekend. I wasn't going to pick this race, but I think Buck is closing well.

Mark Kirk over Alex Giannoulias (IL Senate; RCP = Kirk +2.8)
Two flawed candidates, I just think Giannoulias’ negatives are too high.

Ron Johnson over Russ Feingold (WIS Senate; RCP = Johnson +6.6)
I think this is a safe pick. I am trying to go with the most contentious races, but I’ll include a couple of locks.

Sharron Angle over Harry Reid (NV Senate; RCP = Angle +4.0)
I think the Republican or Tea Party wave stands a very good chance of slowing at the Rockies, but as I have noted before, I think Nevadans are dying to not re-elect Harry Reid. And I really, really want him to lose. Should never gamble on the outcome you want but I couldn't resist in this case.

HOUSE RACES

Kristi Noem over Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD At Large; RCP = Leans GOP)
The polls in this race are back and forth & I think it is well within the range. And, as I said before, Kristi Noem is hot.

Keith Fimian over Gerry Connolly (VA-11; RCP = Toss Up)
A rematch of 2008, which Connolly won by 12. Normally, I’d be hesitant with that background, but if this really is a wave election, Fimian should win.

Tim Burns over Mark Critz (PA-12; RCP = Toss Up)
I find myself somewhat agreeing with Joe Scarborough that Pennsylvania is often fool’s gold for Republicans. But I had to pick one PA race, so let’s go with John Murtha’s old seat. A rematch of the Special Election. Like Florida’s governor race, I think a Toomey victory - and Tom Corbett’s likely win as well - helps Burns here.

Sam Caliguri over Chris Murphy (CT-5; RCP= Toss Up)
I have to pick one New England race for the Republicans, don’t I? Unfortunately Bielat over Frank is just too much wishful thinking. Caliguri is polling at 50 percent, so that’s good enough for me. If there is a safe bet for a Republican anywhere in New England, I think this one is it. (And if Bielat does win by some chance, I think the Dems are in for historic losses).

Tiebreaker: Republican Gains (Senate and House combined): 67


If I have a chance tomorrow, I'll post picks for all the Senate races, just for kicks.

[jerseyhoya34]

One interesting race in these final days is the AK-SEN race. The establishment seems fairly panicked that Miller will lose, and McAdams seems to be making a late push in the polls (probably not enough). In the end it does not matter because Murkowski is like every other Republican in the Senate - reliably in line with her party.

[ScreamingHoya]

FYI, full disclosure- The company I work for is in the business of electoral prognostication, but I want to play on Hoyatalk anyways.

California Senate: Barbara Boxer

California is a state where the President has a 53 percent approval rating, ten points higher than his national rating. Republicans simply nominated a candidate that was too conservative for the state she was running in. Boxer takes it 52-47.

Wisconsin Senate: Ron Johnson

Never would I have thought this race would end up with Feingold's ouster by such a healthy margin. If it was just the national mood, Feingold might have been able to hang on, but Johnson has run a flawless campaign. 54-46 win for Johnson.

Nevada Senate: Harry Reid

Every mainstream analyst I've heard in the past week has said that this is an unbelievably close race that will probably end up with Reid losing. While I agree that this will be extremely close, I think Reid wins in a squeaker for one reason. In Nevada, there is a space on the ballot for "none of the above"- you can literally go in and file a protest vote and vote for nobody. In the past, this usually got 3 or 4 percent- this year with an unpopular Senator and an equally unpopular Republican challenger, I think that could double. Further, these are votes that are going to be taken off the table for Angle. The majority of the people voting for "none of the above" will be those who would otherwise vote for Angle- people that come in and say "I really don't like Harry Reid and want to vote against him...but Sharron Angle is just too crazy for me". My opinion- Reid takes it 46-45 with the rest going to 'none of the above' and third party candidates.

Colorado Senate: Michael Bennet

This is a classic race of a superb campaign versus a superb climate- which will win out? Bennet has run a professional campaign that has stayed on message, but he is an appointed Senator who has struggled to get his name recognition up running in a swing state in a terrible environment. Buck is a subpar candidate who frequently gets taken off message (re: his Meet the Press appearance). I'm not at all confident in this but I'll pick the guy who's running the better campaign and go with a 50-49 win for Bennet.

Illinois Senate: Mark Kirk

Another pick I have no confidence in- not only are these guys tight in the polls, but because they're such flawed and damaged candidates, they're only polling in the low 40s- a lot of undecideds- so the winner could end up with a healthy margin. I think Giannoulias is more damaged and his problems are associated with the economy, running a failed bank. I say Kirk pulls it out 52-47

Pennsylvania Senate: Pat Toomey

Since he first came to Congress in 2006, Sestak has been known as a closer, pulling out his tough races in the final weeks and days. I think this is too little too late however. Outside of Philly, this is a very conservative state, and Dems can't count on urban turnout in a midterm year especially here since Philly was Specter's home base. Toomey wins 52-48.

Washington Senate: Patty Murray

Personally popular Senator- Rossi loses his third close statewide race this decade. Murray wins 52-48.

West Virginia Senate: Joe Manchin

Conventional wisdom has been that Manchin is loved as the state Governor and voters want to keep him there. But when it comes down to it, they've got a choice to vote for or vote against someone they like. It's not so easy when actually given the choice to vote against someone you admire. Manchin gets through by a handful- 53-47.

California Governor: Jerry Brown

$140 million spent and Whitman is saying now "I feel like voters are starting to get to know me." If you've spent this much time and money and you only feel like they're starting to get to know you a week out, you're in big trouble. She's running a poor campaign full of mistakes including shying away from answering questions from the media and flubbing the response to the illegal alien nanny story. Brown is running devastating ads at the end of the cycle; one that shows Whitman giving word for word talking points that Schwarzenegger gave when he was running (that's what happens when you pick the same consultants) and another where Whitman raves about how great California was doing when she came to the state thirty years ago (note to her opposition research team- BROWN WAS GOVERNOR THEN). Money can provide a lot of things to campaigns, but when it comes down to it, all it does is allow you to have resources- you can't literally buy an election if the other guy is spending enough to run a good campaign too. Brown wins by a healthy margin, 55-45.

SD-AL: Stephanie Herseth Sandlin
Note to Box- Stephanie Herseth is hot too, and a 3x Georgetown grad. Months ago, I was thinking she was done for sure. That all turned around for me when the traffic ticket scandal hit for Noem. Across the country, I tell my friends who are working on races that attacks on personal issues that don't have to do with the economy aren't sticking. This is one race where the opposite is true. While a horrific driving record might not be a big deal in most races, everyone in SD is familiar with Bill Janklow, who held this seat 6 years ago and went to prison for vehicular manslaughter after killing a motercyclist after years of traffic citations. The 30 tickets that Noem has racked up in the last two years will be her undoing. Sandlin wins the closest race of her career by 2 percent, 51-49.

Tiebreaker: Republicans pick up 6 in the Senate, 55 in the House for 61 total

[jerseyhoya34]

A Harry Reid win in a 52-48 Senate would be brutal. I was hoping we'd have a Democrat as majority leader after the election. Chuck Schumer or Dick Durbin would be a fine selection - as liberal as Mitch McConnell and his ilk are conservative.

[Boz]

I am well aware of Stephanie Herseth Sandlin's Georgetown pedigree. I could even tell a story or two......

But she's no Kristi Noem.

And I agree with Ambassador. It would be better for Democrats if they retained the Senate, but Harry Reid lost and Schumer or Durbin took up the Majority Leader position. But then again, you all know how I feel about Harry Reid.

[AustinHoya03]

Going with the "Republicans in purplish states" strategy here...

Ken Buck defeats Michael Bennett (CO Senate)
Sharron Angle defeats Harry Reid (NV Senate)
Pat Toomey defeats Joe Sestak (PA Senate)
Ron Johnson defeats Russ Feingold (WI Senate)
Dino Rossi defeats Patti Murray (WA Senate)

Rick Scott defeats Alex Sink (FL Governor)
John Kasich defeats Ted Strickland (OH Governor)
Tom Corbett defeats Dan Onorato (PA Governor)

Chip Cravaack defeats Chip Oberstar (MN 8th CD)
Steve Pearce defeats Harry Teague (NM 2nd CD)

If I could pick a Texas House race, I'd pick Canseco over Ciro Rodriguez, but there's no RCP average.

Tiebreaker: Rs pick up 4 Senate seats, 60 House seats, for 64 total.

[Boz]

Nov 1, 2010 1:09:41 GMT -5 AustinHoya03 said:

Ken Buck defeats Michael Bennett (CO Senate)
Sharron Angle defeats Harry Reid (NV Senate)
Pat Toomey defeats Joe Sestak (PA Senate)
Ron Johnson defeats Russ Feingold (WI Senate)
Dino Rossi defeats Patti Murray (WA Senate)

Tiebreaker: Rs pick up 4 Senate seats, 60 House seats, for 64 total.

You realize got Rs picking up 5 Senate seats currently held by Ds right there, right? Not very likely that any R seats go D, but I suppose there's a chance for a miracle in Alaska. Conway might still have a slim outside chance in KY.

Just pointing that out. You don't have to answer. Your picks are yours, not mine.

[jerseyhoya34]

Are the sippers going to caucus with the Republicans? I thought they were independents.

[TC]

Who's going to be the first to pick the Alaska Senate race? Maybe we should just have a side thread for that one.

[Boz]

Nov 1, 2010 9:47:01 GMT -5 TC said:

Who's going to be the first to pick the Alaska Senate race? Maybe we should just have a side thread for that one.

I don't know what's going to happen up there. I think after all the dust settles, Miller will still win, but clearly I am not confident enough in that outcome to include it in my 10 picks.

I realize Alaska's a small state population-wise, but if Murkowski can actually win as a write-in, that's pretty amazing, no two ways about it. (and Mitch McConnell will look very smart for not making her give up her leadership position).

I still don't think McAdams has a chance, even with the fight on the right.

[EasyEd]

Still waiting for Ambassador to stop making fun of the Tea Partiers. Latest descriptive phase: sippers.

[TC]

And we're still waiting on your entry to this thread Ed! C'mon, be a dear and fill one out. It's all in good fun.

[hoyainspirit]

This is why I don't bet:

IL Senate - Giannoulias
WV Senate - Manchin
CA Senate - Boxer
NV Senate - Reid
CO Senate - Bennet
WI Senate - Johnson
PA Senate - Sestak
IL Gov - Brady
CA Gov - Moonbeam
NH2 - Kuster

Tiebreaker - Republican gains(total): 46

[EasyEd]

Nov 1, 2010 13:08:22 GMT -5 TC said:

And we're still waiting on your entry to this thread Ed! C'mon, be a dear and fill one out. It's all in good fun.

Sorry, I don't have any reason, other than what the so-called experts claim, to venture how the electorate will vote. After seeing how crazy they were in 2008, it's no telling. I am hoping, though, all the Tea Partiers win.

[TBird41]

MN-08: Cravaack > Oberstar
AK SEN: Murkowksi > Miller/McAdams (that exact spelling too ;D)
MO-04: Hartzler > Skelton
CA-SEN: Fiorina > Boxer
IN-02: Walorski > Donnelly
IL-SEN: Kirk > Giannoulias
SD-AL: Noem > Herseth Sandlin
HI-01: Djou > Hanabusa
ND-AL: Berg > Pomeroy
MN-GOV: Dayton > Emmer (Because Holy F! MN voters are stupider than Delaware's)



Republican gains--75

[Boz]

A few more predictions:

- Alaska almost certainly will not be decided tonight. I think that's a pretty safe bet. But I have a feeling Washington will not be either. Poor Dino Rossi. Another recount. Bring better lawyers this time, Dino.

- Republicans will sweep through Virginia, with the exception of my stupid Congressional District. Honestly, at this point, I promise to vote for a Democrat if you can promise me it will be someone other than that loser Jim Moran. Terry McAuliffe, anyone. (I found it encouraging to see so many voters this morning holding only the GOP sample ballot and not the Dem sample ballot, but I know that miserable letch is still going to win).

- More than 30 Governors will be Republicans. I think it could go as high as 35. Republicans will also make significant gains in state legislatures. Let the redistricting begin!!!

- Obama will cancel his trip to India to immediately hold a joint breakfast with John Boehner, Steny Hoyer, Mitch McConnell and Chuck Schumer.

- Had you going on that last one, didn't I?

- Republicans will win the women's vote. Utter panic will ensue in the offices of NOW. Arianna Huffington will insult women voters and Sarah Palin.

- In at least one high profile race, the loser will refuse to make a concession call to his/her opponent. (Not "will refuse to concede that he/she lost," just refuse to make the call). In the spirit of Jon Stewart, I will not predict whether this will be a Republican or Democrat. It's just as likely from either side.

- I will be late to work on Wednesday.