Our Brutal Schedule

[Big Dog]

Obviously we've talked at length about this in the context of all kinds of things, including RPI, tournament seeding, etc., but when you look at the schedules of teams like Louisville, Marquette, or West Virginia with whom we're likely to be jostling to stay in the top 4, it really is quite amazing the extent to which the Hoyas schedule turned out to be even tougher than anyone could have imagined.

Pomeroy's top 7 Big East teams are Syracuse, West Virginia, Nova, the Hoyas, Marquette, Louisville, and Pittsburgh. Those are also the only 7 teams he projects to have a winning record in the Big East, and we might therefore expect that those 7 will be the only tournament teams (UConn could grab a bid at .500 in the conference I suppose depending on whether Texas gets turned around and how they play at the Garden).

But focusing on those 7, the Hoyas ridiculous schedule has them playing all six of the other top teams on the road. Only two of those six come to Verizon, and--surprise--those two are the two teams who will battle it out for the conference's regular season crown: Syracuse and Villanova.

Pomeroy projects Georgetown, Pitt, and Marquette to finish at 11-7 in the Big East, West Virginia to be 13-5, and Louisville to finish 10-8. These numbers are derived in large part from each team's remaining schedule, meaning that it would hardly be unlikely for the Hoyas to finish as low as no. 7 in the conference, especially given the loss at Marquette and the likely loss at Louisville that a seventh-place finish would require.

Here's how the top 7 teams' schedules look against one another. Only Nova's is anything close to as difficult as the Hoyas':
Georgetown, 8 games: 6 away, 2 home (extras vs. Cuse, Nova)
Syracuse, 8 games: 3 away, 5 home (extras vs. Hoyas, Louisville)
Villanova, 9 games: 6 away, 3 home (extras vs. Hoyas, Marq, WVU)
West Virginia, 8 games: 2 away, 6 home (extras vs. Pitt, Nova)
Pittsburgh, 7 games: 3 away, 4 home (extra vs. WVU)
Louisville, 7 games: 4 away, 3 home (extra vs. Cuse)
Marquette, 7 games: 3 away, 4 home (extra vs. Nova)

The Hoyas have the second-most games against the group, including extra games against nos. 1 & 2 in the conference, yet stand alone with the fewest home games and are tied with Nova for the most away games.

All of this is a long way of saying that if getting a no. 2 seed depends in part on where we finish in the conference and on performing well in the BET, there is no room to lose "should win" games like the one tonight, because there is simply no more margin for error--that left the building last Wednesday.

The pressure is on.

[SFHoya99]

It's insane. I keep looking at the Pomeroy projected record -- 11-7 -- and thinking that even if we go 12-6, that record won't look very good for a team that is as good as this one is. Yes, we shouldn't have lost to USF, but having to play six of our eight toughest games on the road is ridiculous.

[jhoyafan]

Maybe I'm on crack but I count only 7 games left - (only 4 on the road and 3 at home)

02/09: at Providence
02/14: at Rutgers
02/18: SYRACUSE
02/23: at Louisville
02/27: NOTRE DAME
03/01: at W. Virginia
03/06: CINCINNATI

[SFHoya99]

These aren't games left; these are games against the Top 7 of the conference.

[canissaxa]

Great post--I've been wondering about how much tougher our schedule seems on paper than some of the others in the conference, but the HP post on schedule strength didn't seem to back it up.

Home/away analysis certainly makes things a bit clearer ... if a bit daunting.

[redskins12820]

We need to go 4-0 v. Cinci, Notre Dame, Providence and Rutgers and then hope for the best in the other 3 games.

[mfrekko]

Yehp; 4-0 against those teams is a must now and 1-2 against Cuse, @wvu, and @louisville would get us to 22-7 (12-6), a likely double bye for BE tourney, and in-line for a #3 seed (and possibly better with a quality win or two in the BE tourney).

[FrazierFanatic]

And if we can't do at least that much, we will deserve where we end up. There is not a game left we cannot win if the team that played Pitt, Duke and Nova #2 shows up.

[MCIGuy]

I'm too distracted by the Evony ad to give a response.

But in all seriousness we have gone over this for almost a month. Its a tough *** schedule without a doubt. A real killer. I'm hoping for a 12-6 finish and even that would be very, very tough.

[GUJook97]

Nice thread as always, Big Dog. To be honest, when looking at this in the past couple of weeks, my first thought was that we would end up in the same position as Nova when all was said in done. However, you have to give them a lot of credit for winning at Marquette and WVU. At this point, I think they are likely uncatchable. But, as I said last night, West Virginia is very much in doubt as the lock for 3rd place. Which is ironic because, not only were they the favorites, but they also had the most favorable top end schedule. In my opinion, WVU has been a disappointment so far this year, and I would think their fans would think so as well. Still time for them, though, of course.

[Gold Hoya]

Some of this (e.g. Villanova and WVU home-and-homes with other top teams) is by design, since ESPN dictates the schedule. The rest can be traced back to the fact that Cuse turned out to be better than anyone anticipated.

[blueandgray]

Whether or not Pomeroy or our SOS reflects exactly how tough our schedule is remains to be seen....that said, I think most in the know realize that its been as brutal as it gets. This is especially true given that we mixed in Duke as our one OOC game since we started playing our BE games.

That being said, my guess is that if we manage to get to the NCAA tourney with up to 7 losses...we have a very strong chance of snatching up a #2 seed. That's a lot of losses for a two seed but due to our SOS and our quality wins...we earn a 2.

[HoyaSinceBirth]

Feb 9, 2010 12:35:17 GMT -5 blueandgray said:

Whether or not Pomeroy or our SOS reflects exactly how tough our schedule is remains to be seen....that said, I think most in the know realize that its been as brutal as it gets. This is especially true given that we mixed in Duke as our one OOC game since we started playing our BE games.

That being said, my guess is that if we manage to get to the NCAA tourney with up to 7 losses...we have a very strong chance of snatching up a #2 seed. That's a lot of losses for a two seed but due to our SOS and our quality wins...we earn a 2.

We're #1 in SOS according to the RPI.

[prhoya]

In December, it would have been hard to believe that MU would be in the best position to grab the #4 slot. Lets win tonight and then see where we stand. One game at a time...

[hoyarooter]

Feb 9, 2010 13:02:08 GMT -5 prhoya said:

In December, it would have been hard to believe that MU would be in the best position to grab the #4 slot. Lets win tonight and then see where we stand. One game at a time...

Well, there were some comments earlier that Marquette's schedule was top-heavy, and got much easier as it went along. It's hard to believe, though, that they could lose to DePaul and still be in a position to grab a double bye.

Great research, Big Dog. I think what this demonstrates, though, is that Villanova deserves crazy props for being in the position they are in. People may say they aren't a legitimate number 2 in the country team and have no inside game, but the fact remains that they now have wins at Marquette, at West Virginia and at Louisville. That's impressive, no matter how you slice it.

[cnyhoya]

Nice research. It's the home/away spread that makes a big difference - more so than the number of games. We definitely have it a little tougher.

But the converse is that we therefore have had more home games against the bottom feeders of the league. Unfortunately, we have pretty much played them all already!

[GUJook97]

Well, it's just as easy to say that MU isnt in the best position to grab the #4 spot BECAUSE they lost to Depaul. In other words, what makes anyone think MU can beat Seton Hall, SJU and Cincinnati on the road?

[tjm62]

At the end of the day, even if we finish 11-7, it's not even close to the end of the world. I figured before the season that finishing 5th in the Big East was our upside, and that was before it turned out Syracuse was WAY better than anyone expected.

Our schedule was ridiculously tough, and we know the hoyas are capable of playing with anyone. We have the potential to make some noise in the tournament, and I count us lucky that we're in a position to be harping about a 2 vs. a 3 seed (or possibly lower with a few more non-starter games).

[Big Dog]

Feb 9, 2010 13:53:02 GMT -5 GUJook97 said:

Well, it's just as easy to say that MU isnt in the best position to grab the #4 spot BECAUSE they lost to Depaul. In other words, what makes anyone think MU can beat Seton Hall, SJU and Cincinnati on the road?

This is a good point. Marquette's had a very interesting schedule so far because for the most part they've played either the NCAA locks (WVU, Nova, Cuse, Gtown) or the teams that clearly aren't making the tournament (DePaul twice, Rutgers, Providence twice). Other than the one game at UConn (which they won at the last second), they haven't played any of the other bubble teams that they're currently competing with for bids (according to Lunardi--ND, Louisville, USF, Cincinnati, UConn). They've more or less beaten who they should and lost to whom they should, with Gtown and DePaul as the sort-of exceptions. It will be very interesting to see how they fare against the Bubble Group down the stretch--note however that they get all of them at home with the exception of Cincinnati, who for my money is the weakest of those teams.

[Big Dog]

Feb 9, 2010 13:02:08 GMT -5 prhoya said:

In December, it would have been hard to believe that MU would be in the best position to grab the #4 slot.

To be honest, Pomeroy's had Marquette pegged at 11-7 since Big East play began. Their season has gone exactly as he predicted, with the exception of the win at UConn, which is countered by the loss at DePaul.