Our Brutal Schedule

[cnyhoya]

Tonight's game is the key to the whole equation! We need to beat the middling teams, especially on the road, to secure a top 4 BE seed.

[Big Dog]

Feb 9, 2010 13:57:04 GMT -5 tjm62 said:

At the end of the day, even if we finish 11-7, it's not even close to the end of the world. I figured before the season that finishing 5th in the Big East was our upside, and that was before it turned out Syracuse was WAY better than anyone expected.

Our schedule was ridiculously tough, and we know the hoyas are capable of playing with anyone. We have the potential to make some noise in the tournament, and I count us lucky that we're in a position to be harping about a 2 vs. a 3 seed (or possibly lower with a few more non-starter games).

Notwithstanding the brutal schedule, there are reasons to be optimistic about our chances at staying on the 2 line. I'd guess that with Kansas, Kentucky, Nova, and Cuse taking the 1s, four of the following pool of teams will draw the 2 seeds:

Hoyas
WVU
Duke
Wisconsin
Michigan State
Purdue
Texas
Tennessee
Kansas State

Whoever fares best of the Big Ten teams is going to grab a 2 (let's say Wisconsin because they've finished playing the OSU/MSU/Purdue trio), and looking quickly at schedules I also really like Kansas State's chances because they'll be the clear favorite in every remaining game but 1 (at Kansas).

That leaves two spots:
Duke arguably has the edge as well because its hard to imagine the ACC champion getting a 3 seed, but the reality is they lost to Wisconsin and to Georgetown out of the conference, so if everybody stays relatively on track there's a strong argument for pushing them down.

Its possible both Michigan State and Wisconsin could go 14-4 in the Big Ten and meet in the conference title game and that could earn that conference two 2s, but its hard not to believe somebody will stumble, and neither team has a very impressive road/neutral record when balanced against some of the competition. Same goes for Purdue but their Big Ten schedule is tougher.

Tennesee should probably lose their next two games at Vandy (tonight) and at Kentucky and also gets Kentucky at home. Pomeroy projects tham at 10-6 in the SEC and that isn't going to be enough. Still, two chances to upset Kentucky leaves the door open.

That leaves the two Big East teams. I'm guessing that after the loss last night the bracketologists would move WVU down a seed. Depending on what happens between now and then (obviously), the Hoyas visit to WVU Coliseum could be a sort of elimination game for 2 seed consideration.

Before the "one game at a time" howls come out, I recognize that anything can happen, including losing tonight. None of that would be a huge surprise. My point is only that if the Hoyas pull it together and get to 12-6, I like their chances at that 2 line. Also, barring a collapse, given that the list above contains 9 names, you have to like the Hoyas chances to stay in the top 16.

[paranoia2]

What I love about the schedule (as a whole) is the neutral floor (with some travel) whippings of likely 4-6 seeds Butler & Washington. This team is good enough to take care of business against anyone. The game I'm most curious about is the home game versus Syracuse. I think Chris Wright may explode in that game and the Hoyas could get revenge.

[cnyhoya]

I am already hearing a little backlash brewing against the Big East for having 4 teams in the top 8 nationally. I'm not saying we don't deserve it, but it doesn't sit well with the other conferences.

Combine that with the fact that the Big East teams are gonna be beating up on each other quite a bit in the next month, makes me doubt we will get 2 #1's AND 2 #2's in the big dance. So I would peg WVU as a significant competitor for a number 2 seed.

[HoyaChris]

To be fair, the actual Pomeroy predictions are

Georgetown 11.41 - 6.59
Pittsburgh 11.17 - 6.83
Marquette 11.04 - 6.96

So we've got that going for us.

After we beat Providence tonight, our Pomeroy projection will round up to 12-6.

Problem solved.

[cnyhoya]

The other question is who, if anyone, from the group sitting between 9 & 16 in the polls is going to make a run and win their conference tournament and steal a #2 seed?

[tashoya]

Think how strong our schedule would have looked if we didn't play a cupcake like Duke at home!

[wahoohoya]

I'd be more than happy with a 3 seed - let's just stay away from that 4 line. Obvious disadvantage of a 3 is that you likely have to deal with playing a 2, but I don't see much of a difference in those teams vying for the 2-3 seeds this year. Except for Gtown, of course - clearly a cut above the rest!

[Big Dog]

Feb 9, 2010 14:22:35 GMT -5 Big Dog said:

Feb 9, 2010 13:57:04 GMT -5 tjm62 said:

At the end of the day, even if we finish 11-7, it's not even close to the end of the world. I figured before the season that finishing 5th in the Big East was our upside, and that was before it turned out Syracuse was WAY better than anyone expected.

Our schedule was ridiculously tough, and we know the hoyas are capable of playing with anyone. We have the potential to make some noise in the tournament, and I count us lucky that we're in a position to be harping about a 2 vs. a 3 seed (or possibly lower with a few more non-starter games).

Tennessee was absolutely embarrassed tonight by Vandy and the Badgers lost at home--both good results for anybody looking for a top 4 seed.

Notwithstanding the brutal schedule, there are reasons to be optimistic about our chances at staying on the 2 line. I'd guess that with Kansas, Kentucky, Nova, and Cuse taking the 1s, four of the following pool of teams will draw the 2 seeds:

Hoyas
WVU
Duke
Wisconsin
Michigan State
Purdue
Texas
Tennessee
Kansas State

Whoever fares best of the Big Ten teams is going to grab a 2 (let's say Wisconsin because they've finished playing the OSU/MSU/Purdue trio), and looking quickly at schedules I also really like Kansas State's chances because they'll be the clear favorite in every remaining game but 1 (at Kansas).

That leaves two spots:
Duke arguably has the edge as well because its hard to imagine the ACC champion getting a 3 seed, but the reality is they lost to Wisconsin and to Georgetown out of the conference, so if everybody stays relatively on track there's a strong argument for pushing them down.

Its possible both Michigan State and Wisconsin could go 14-4 in the Big Ten and meet in the conference title game and that could earn that conference two 2s, but its hard not to believe somebody will stumble, and neither team has a very impressive road/neutral record when balanced against some of the competition. Same goes for Purdue but their Big Ten schedule is tougher.

Tennesee should probably lose their next two games at Vandy (tonight) and at Kentucky and also gets Kentucky at home. Pomeroy projects tham at 10-6 in the SEC and that isn't going to be enough. Still, two chances to upset Kentucky leaves the door open.

That leaves the two Big East teams. I'm guessing that after the loss last night the bracketologists would move WVU down a seed. Depending on what happens between now and then (obviously), the Hoyas visit to WVU Coliseum could be a sort of elimination game for 2 seed consideration.

Before the "one game at a time" howls come out, I recognize that anything can happen, including losing tonight. None of that would be a huge surprise. My point is only that if the Hoyas pull it together and get to 12-6, I like their chances at that 2 line. Also, barring a collapse, given that the list above contains 9 names, you have to like the Hoyas chances to stay in the top 16.

[cnyhoya]

Nice win tonight, but there is still a tough road ahead.

As of now we have 8 conference wins, and 2 of them are against .500 or better league record teams. The other 6 are against what are currently the bottom 6 teams in the league.

12-6 can be done, but it won't be easy.