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Post by TrueHoyaBlue on Jan 15, 2010 10:05:56 GMT -5
One thing I can guarantee about the next 5 games, is at the end of them, our Strength of Schedule will be at (or at least very near) tops in the country. Here are the RPI rankings (and W-L) of the teams coming up.
@ 6 Villanova (15-1)
@ 7 Pittsburgh (14-2)
vs 134 Rutgers (9-7)
@ 4 Syracuse (16-1)
vs 1 Duke (14-2)
After which we will have played 7 top 25 RPI teams (we're currently 3-0 against that lot). That is more RPI top 25 teams (and in fact more RPI top 10 teams) than we will have played against sub-200 RPI teams.
Not to mention that the remaining schedule will still contain:
vs 6 Villanova
vs 4 Syracuse
@ 2 West Virginia
It's too early to say for sure (and it likely has something to do with whether teams like Washington can turn their season around), but this year's Hoyas may have a shot at the #1 SOS in the country. Now let's see what we can do with that opportunity.
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Cambridge
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Post by Cambridge on Jan 15, 2010 10:15:43 GMT -5
So I just looked again at the upcoming schedule, and I think it could well be the most brutal stretch I've ever seen in all my years of following the Hoyas. It may be one of the most ridiculous 2 week regular season schedule in college hoops history - no team will face this type of gauntlet even in the NCAA tournament, and in a cursory look around the Big East, I don't see any other team that has a comparable stretch. 3 absurdly hard road games and - hello - Duke dropped in the middle of the Big East grind. Four of our next five games are against teams in the top SEVEN of the current RPI. Amazing. For a team that can't seem to shake "last year's collapse" - which seems to be referenced in every article written about the Hoyas, no matter what the outlet - it's about the toughest proving ground imaginable. Honestly, 3-2 in this stretch would be doing VERY WELL. Excited to see how we do. I agree Guru. It is the toughest stretch I've ever seen. |
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Post by HeartAttackHoya on Jan 15, 2010 10:58:07 GMT -5
2 out of next 5 would be about par. 3 would be good. 4 would be excellent and exceed expectations. 5 out 5 would be JTIII tattooed on my neck.
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sleepy
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Post by sleepy on Jan 15, 2010 11:16:25 GMT -5
It would be really nice if we could steal one of the Big East road games. Personally, I think @ Pitt would be the most benificial as we get both Cuse and Nova (why do we have home and homes with the top two Big East teams when we were picked to finish 5th in conference?) one more time and both at home if we lose the first time around. But hey, if we can win any of these I will be plesently surprised. Just need to hold it down at home and not get discouraged if we end up losing 3 out of 4 Big East games.
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Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Jan 15, 2010 12:52:32 GMT -5
Let's start with a win Sunday in the venue we've had the easiest time in recently and then go from there.
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idhoya
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Post by idhoya on Jan 15, 2010 13:12:48 GMT -5
Pitt and Cuse are also the most physical of any of those teams during the stretch. They will provide the biggest challenge and test the Hoyas manhood.
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hoyarooter
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Post by hoyarooter on Jan 15, 2010 13:20:45 GMT -5
So I just looked again at the upcoming schedule, and I think it could well be the most brutal stretch I've ever seen in all my years of following the Hoyas. It may be one of the most ridiculous 2 week regular season schedule in college hoops history - no team will face this type of gauntlet even in the NCAA tournament, and in a cursory look around the Big East, I don't see any other team that has a comparable stretch. 3 absurdly hard road games and - hello - Duke dropped in the middle of the Big East grind. Four of our next five games are against teams in the top SEVEN of the current RPI. Amazing. For a team that can't seem to shake "last year's collapse" - which seems to be referenced in every article written about the Hoyas, no matter what the outlet - it's about the toughest proving ground imaginable. Honestly, 3-2 in this stretch would be doing VERY WELL. Excited to see how we do. Totally agree, guru. This stretch is brutal, and 3-2 would be great. However, for those complaining about this part of the schedule, keep in mind that neither Syracuse nor Pitt were expected to be this good - particularly Pitt. So this stretch, while challenging, didn't appear so overwhelming when it was originally announced. |
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Post by rammajamma on Jan 15, 2010 13:30:33 GMT -5
If the team can have the mental fortitude, this part of the schedule will only help us as the year goes on. I would love to know what other team is facing this kind of competition, in this short a timespan, at this time of the season. This is like the sweet sixteen, elite 8, final four, and championship game (with a NIT 1st roudn game with Rutgers thrown in for good measure) - in the span of a couple of weeks.
I live/die with every loss, but would love to see 3 or more wins through this span. We'll be at the Nova game hoping for a great showing.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Jan 19, 2010 10:24:22 GMT -5
We're at 1-1 so far -- which has more or less solidified the prediction.
Pomeroy gives us a much better chance to beat Pitt than Duke or Cuse. If he's right about that, then this game becomes very important:
Pitt: 40% chance of victory
Cuse: 19%
Duke: 29%
Chance of winning 1 game: 65%
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tashoya
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Post by tashoya on Jan 19, 2010 10:46:14 GMT -5
We're at 1-1 so far -- which has more or less solidified the prediction. Pomeroy gives us a much better chance to beat Pitt than Duke or Cuse. If he's right about that, then this game becomes very important: Pitt: 40% chance of victory Cuse: 19% Duke: 29% Chance of winning 1 game: 65% This may be true but I hate the other 2 teams so much that I can't even fathom having to lose to them. |
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SirSaxa
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Post by SirSaxa on Jan 19, 2010 11:11:22 GMT -5
Those are just stats.
The games play out on the court.
What were the stats for K State last night?
How about the JETS on Sunday?
If we keep playing the way we have, add a little more consistency and a little less foul trouble, we will do VERY well for the rest of this season.
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Jan 19, 2010 11:18:15 GMT -5
K state was actually favored to win.
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Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Jan 19, 2010 11:55:03 GMT -5
Those are just stats. The games play out on the court. What were the stats for K State last night? How about the JETS on Sunday? If we keep playing the way we have, add a little more consistency and a little less foul trouble, we will do VERY well for the rest of this season. The "stats" have been right on so far--Pomeroy gave Old Dominion the best chance of any our pre-conference competition to beat us and they did. Since then he has correctly "picked" each Georgetown game. Obviously, we have a better than negligible chance to win these games--as Pomeroy himself indicates. But the numbers indicate the challenge. SF--do Pomeroy's numbers (efficiency, projections, etc.) account for strength of schedule? In other words, are they weighed according to quality of opponent? Or do our efficiency numbers vs. Savannah State count the same as those against Pitt? |
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Jan 19, 2010 12:02:12 GMT -5
Pomeroy's Adjusted Efficiency (O and D), Adjusted Pace and his predictions account for SOS.
All the other numbers -- both team and individual -- are not adjusted.
When he adjusts, I don't think he adjusts by "counting more." Savannah State counts the same -- but a lower raw efficiency versus a good defense will yield a higher adjusted efficiency and vice versa.
The adjusted efficiency numbers are what he expects the O and D to do against average teams.
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hoyarooter
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Post by hoyarooter on Jan 19, 2010 12:52:49 GMT -5
We're going to beat Duke.
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Cambridge
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Post by Cambridge on Jan 19, 2010 17:44:20 GMT -5
We're going to beat Duke. Not so fast, I heard the refs already T'd up Greg for getting two cups of juice this morning at breakfast. |
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Post by happyhoya1979 on Jan 19, 2010 18:51:20 GMT -5
I would be flabbergasted if Greg Monroe gets to play more than 20 minutes total against Duke.
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kchoya
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Post by kchoya on Jan 19, 2010 18:56:53 GMT -5
We're going to beat Duke. Not so fast, I heard the refs already T'd up Greg for getting two cups of juice this morning at breakfast. Wrong. They gave Greg a T because the person behind him in line asked for two cups of juice.  |
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hoyarooter
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Post by hoyarooter on Jan 19, 2010 20:57:31 GMT -5
Is Duke bringing its own officials to the game? I'm rather hoping that Scheyer picks up three fouls in the first 15 seconds. ;D
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tashoya
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Post by tashoya on Jan 20, 2010 8:49:14 GMT -5
Not so fast, I heard the refs already T'd up Greg for getting two cups of juice this morning at breakfast. Wrong. They gave Greg a T because the person behind him in line asked for two cups of juice. I heard it was a kid SITTING at a nearby table that caused Greg to get T'd up. |
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