|
|
Post by jerseyhoya34 on Nov 2, 2011 14:28:34 GMT -5
Obama's approvals, while not great, are starting to rebound. I think this race will look a lot like 2004 with Romney playing the role of John Kerry and Obama playing the role of a stay-the-course executive (which, with some exception, he has been for better and for worse IMO). I don't see Obama putting states like CO, VA, and NC in play again (and certainly not Indiana or that EV in Nebraska). More like we'll have 3-5 battlegrounds with OH, FL, MI (particularly if Romney is the nominee), and PA certain to be on the list.
As to Ryan, I am not sure what he would do politically. This election is undoubtedly about economics/jobs, and Ryan can no longer wash his hands of the unemployment numbers, while an out-of-government figure like Romney can. Ryan would be more attractive as a VP candidate, although Romney may need more of a charismatic figure just to liven up the ticket. Ryan does more for a president once in government as a bureaucratic/technocratic type of leader (along the lines of an Al Gore).
|
|
Boz
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
123 Fireballs!
Posts: 10,355
|
Post by Boz on Nov 2, 2011 15:27:02 GMT -5
It is ridiculously early and who knows what the coming year will entail, but I'm happy to go out on a limb early and make a bet with anyone on Virginia. I think I'd make that bet regardless of who the Republican nominee is.
Because, IMO, if you think Virginia will not be in play, frankly I think you are crazy. Obama's approval numbers SUCK in the Commonwealth.
EDIT: I also wonder if Newt Gingrich is following the college football BCS formula for Presidential politics: "It's OK to lose, as long as you lose really, really early." ;D
|
|
|
|
Post by jerseyhoya34 on Nov 2, 2011 15:55:40 GMT -5
Boz - I don't think any Democrat would make that bet right now. Obama can't put that second tier of states (the Virginias, North Carolinas, etc.) in play right now. New Mexico is another one that will be difficult, and NH is probably on the battleground list as well (at this early stage).
|
|
Boz
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
123 Fireballs!
Posts: 10,355
|
Post by Boz on Nov 2, 2011 17:50:08 GMT -5
I think I misunderstood your original statement.
|
|
TC
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 9,480
|
Post by TC on Nov 2, 2011 20:35:02 GMT -5
Boz, I'll bet on VA.
|
|
hoyainspirit
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
When life puts that voodoo on me, music is my gris-gris.
Posts: 8,398 
|
Post by hoyainspirit on Nov 3, 2011 4:11:59 GMT -5
I'll hold the money.  |
|
|
|
Post by redskins12820 on Nov 3, 2011 8:05:06 GMT -5
The real question is, when Romney is the Republican nominee, will a far right 3rd party candidate emerge that has any force (i.e. more force than a Ron Paul-type candidate)? Haven't seen a legitimate 3rd party candidate in a while, but I can't see parts of the conservative right just sitting by and passively supporting Romney.
|
|
|
|
Post by jerseyhoya34 on Nov 3, 2011 8:26:58 GMT -5
Another issue for Romney is whether he is an American. His father wasn't, after all, and we haven't seen the birth certificate.  |
|
Boz
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
123 Fireballs!
Posts: 10,355
|
Post by Boz on Nov 3, 2011 8:58:14 GMT -5
The real question is, when Romney is the Republican nominee, will a far right 3rd party candidate emerge that has any force (i.e. more force than a Ron Paul-type candidate)? Haven't seen a legitimate 3rd party candidate in a while, but I can't see parts of the conservative right just sitting by and passively supporting Romney. That's probably because you are not getting your news from conservatives. I'll take that bet too. TC, if you want to name terms for VA, feel free. I can't think of anything at the moment. Are we betting a straight up who wins the state, Obama vs. Player To Be Named Later? I'm comfortable with that. We can set that one for now and/or add it into other parlays later, a la 2010. |
|
TC
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 9,480
|
Post by TC on Nov 3, 2011 9:51:48 GMT -5
Winner gets choice of the other person's Avatar - for a month. And I think it'd be fair to say Obama vs. 2012 Republican Nominee, eliminating any possibility that Ralph Sampson comes out of nowhere and runs as a middle-of-the-road independent.
|
|
DFW HOYA
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,908
|
Post by DFW HOYA on Nov 3, 2011 13:07:10 GMT -5
|
|
Boz
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
123 Fireballs!
Posts: 10,355
|
Post by Boz on Nov 3, 2011 13:19:04 GMT -5
Unless his name is Kodos, please don't mention any possible new Republican candidates.
You're on, TC.
We can decide later if we want to add more contests to this bet. Or just let it stand alone and have any additional contests be a part of a different bet altogether. I am OK with either option.
And hoyainspirit: sorry man. I wouldn't even let you hold my Monopoly money. I can't trust you, you're from New Orleans...there is no more wreteched hive of scum and villainy this side of the Rockies (possibly why I love it so much). ;D
|
|
rosslynhoya
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 2,595
|
Post by rosslynhoya on Nov 3, 2011 14:07:18 GMT -5
Is the bet off entirely if Obama does not end up being the nominee and the Dems run Biden or HRC at the top of the ticket instead, or will it default to Dem vs GOP?
|
|
theexorcist
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,506
|
Post by theexorcist on Nov 3, 2011 14:53:57 GMT -5
Obama's approvals, while not great, are starting to rebound. I think this race will look a lot like 2004 with Romney playing the role of John Kerry and Obama playing the role of a stay-the-course executive (which, with some exception, he has been for better and for worse IMO). I don't see Obama putting states like CO, VA, and NC in play again (and certainly not Indiana or that EV in Nebraska). More like we'll have 3-5 battlegrounds with OH, FL, MI (particularly if Romney is the nominee), and PA certain to be on the list. As to Ryan, I am not sure what he would do politically. This election is undoubtedly about economics/jobs, and Ryan can no longer wash his hands of the unemployment numbers, while an out-of-government figure like Romney can. Ryan would be more attractive as a VP candidate, although Romney may need more of a charismatic figure just to liven up the ticket. Ryan does more for a president once in government as a bureaucratic/technocratic type of leader (along the lines of an Al Gore). Stay-the-course will get Obama blown out of the water. 2004 was only 18 months after the Iraq war started - there was a very palpable question as to where we stood in Iraq (April 2004 was the battle of Fallujah), and this was far before the surge (it was also before Cindy Sheehan started Camp Casey. The war and whether the US should remain was a big deal. Now, however, there is no big item for discussion - Obama has no signature achievement save Obamacare, and he has no plans to make 2012 a referendum on that. Otherwise, he's just saying that he should be reelected because he's president already. And that's what makes me think that Obama's in massive trouble. In 1996, Bill Clinton did "stay the course", as did Bush in 2004. In 1996, you knew what you were getting if Clinton won again - basically four more years of what had happened before. No one wants a repeat of 2009-2011. Obama will thus have to do some combination of a) saying the things he enacted will actually bear fruit (good luck with that) and b) providing some vision of the future that he can help with. Really, though, I can't see it. |
|
vcjack
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,875
|
Post by vcjack on Nov 3, 2011 14:59:55 GMT -5
Is the bet off entirely if Obama does not end up being the nominee and the Dems run Biden or HRC at the top of the ticket instead, or will it default to Dem vs GOP? The only Biden or Hilary end up being the nominee is if Obama is 6 feet under. |
|
TC
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 9,480
|
Post by TC on Nov 3, 2011 15:50:55 GMT -5
I'm not sure Nate Silver running through all of the logistical challenges that a newly declared candidate would face and ballparking odds at "25 to 1" is really "taking the bait". Seems to fall more in the category of "why this won't happen". |
|
EasyEd
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 7,272
|
Post by EasyEd on Nov 4, 2011 8:19:17 GMT -5
Has any candidate from either party condemned the violence and destruction that a few people have engaged in during the OWS demos?
|
|
Buckets
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,656
|
Post by Buckets on Nov 4, 2011 12:24:22 GMT -5
Perry spoke out against an OWS protester who doesn't actually exist, does that count?
|
|
|
|
Post by jerseyhoya34 on Nov 7, 2011 1:57:35 GMT -5
|
|
Boz
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
123 Fireballs!
Posts: 10,355
|
Post by Boz on Nov 7, 2011 10:28:56 GMT -5
On CNBC this morning, Dana Milbank stated that Obama had lost the jobs argument, & the only way for him to win re-election would be to negatively campaign against the Republican as a crazy extremist. 1. As most of you know, I think Dana Milbank is a complete idiot, not funny, and a pom-pom carrier for this administration. So I don't put much stock in what he says. Well, no stock actually. I just thought it was interesting that such a clear liberal and Obama supporter was already conceding that argument. 2. If Obama goes with that strategy, it is lots of fuel for Milbank's snarky columns, so I'm not surprised he would advocate it. 3. The strategy probably would work against Perry, Cain or even Gingrich. If Romney gets it, however (which I still think he will), I don't see it working. Romney did, however, recently adopt a modified version of Paul Ryan's Medicare plan, so maybe they can show him throwing granny off a cliff too. mittromney.com/blogs/mitts-view/2011/11/romney-presents-plan-turn-around-federal-governmentMe? I'm leaning towards voting for the first one who comes out honestly and says, "Yeah, like we're really going to be able to save anything buy cutting out 'waste, fraud and abuse.' We're the frickin' federal government, people!" |
|
