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Post by PushyGuyFanClub on Aug 30, 2008 9:36:49 GMT -5
the "ready to lead" argument is as good as conceded.
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Saying something doesn't make it so, which is why these real time political commentators are so consistently wrong (and yet no one holds them accountable for their track records). The goal of an election is to generate enough appealing messages that you end up attracting sufficient voters to win the states necessary that add up to an electoral college win. In the end, it's the polls that count.
And there's just no way to know if the readiness argument is conceded in the minds of the voters until we see polling data in a few weeks. The fact may be that all of the people who were sensitive to that argument have already decided on McCain and this move was designed to go after people who were on the fence about him: conservatives, reform-minded folks, etc and bring them into his electoral fold while maintaining the experience voters.
Again, we won't know this until the data comes in, but it seems to me like the people who are questioning Palin's experience weren't going to vote for McCain anyway. Anecdotally, I've already seen a lot of casually political people, message boards, etc energized by this pick, and the famer's market this morning had way more McCain stickers floating around than I've ever seen before. So we'll see.
Love him or hate him, the reason Karl Rove ran circles around most of the political establishment is because he listened to polling data rather than the unsubstantiated opinions of pundits and political vets. The guy used to be able to pull county polling stats off the top of his head. It's that focus on moving certain numbers while holding others constant that makes for good electoral math, and I think that was the strategy here, all opinions aside.
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Aug 30, 2008 9:42:30 GMT -5
This is a MASSIVE trap for the Dems. You cannot argue experience when the battle is between a woman a heartbeat from the presidency and a guy an election from the presidency.
"Our presidential candidate might not have experience, but your VP candidate doesn't either" is NOT a battle you want to have. You're basically calling yourself an inverted ticket to the world.
Trap #2 is the "it's a gimmick pick" or "he must be desperate." You know the Air America types will say that. The party just snubbed a woman for the ticket twice. So the young first-term governor is a gimmick but the young first-term senator is a president? Why is that? Uh oh, now you have to answer that question.
This won't win McCain the lesbian college professors in the party but there is a strong politics of mommyhood in this country that is being underestimated.
All in all, this pick took some huevos rancheros. I didn't think McCain had it in him anymore and he would just go with Pawlenty or Romney. Who knows if this ticket works but it's certainly close enough now that he didn't have to do this.
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Post by strummer8526 on Aug 30, 2008 10:30:33 GMT -5
I don't think most Dems are looking to bring the experience fight to McCain. I don't see Obama running an "experience" ad against Palin. But it means that when McCain says "You have no experience," Obama can respond, "Fine, but if you're elected, we're a heartbeat away from the same thing anyway." It's not a fight for the Dems to start, but it's a way for them to end it when McCain brings it up.
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Aug 30, 2008 10:35:50 GMT -5
I don't think most Dems are looking to bring the experience fight to McCain. I don't see Obama running an "experience" ad against Palin. But it means that when McCain says "You have no experience," Obama can respond, "Fine, but if you're elected, we're a heartbeat away from the same thing anyway." It's not a fight for the Dems to start, but it's a way for them to end it when McCain brings it up. I still think that's risky. Why answer "fine" to that question? You've conceded your inexperience then. I don't think they should deal with that at all. Beat her on issues. Not everything is a good hatchet play and this is one of those times to use caution. |
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kchoya
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Post by kchoya on Aug 30, 2008 10:55:59 GMT -5
I think you can count on one hand the people outside Alaska and outside the Beltway who have ever heard of the Bridge to Nowhere, let alone have any idea what it is. And TBird, you know the Bridge to Nowhere was not connecting Anchorage to Wasilla. The infmaous project was down in Ketchikan, south of Juneau, on the inside passage. The bridge over the Knik Arm is not even remotely the same thing. Having driven from Anchorage to Wasilla, it may seem like nowhere in the middle of winter, but c'mon. |
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Aug 30, 2008 11:24:47 GMT -5
Saying something doesn't make it so Can we get this phrase translated into Latin and emblazoned on the top of the Blue & Gray Board?  |
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Post by strummer8526 on Aug 30, 2008 12:30:00 GMT -5
I don't think most Dems are looking to bring the experience fight to McCain. I don't see Obama running an "experience" ad against Palin. But it means that when McCain says "You have no experience," Obama can respond, "Fine, but if you're elected, we're a heartbeat away from the same thing anyway." It's not a fight for the Dems to start, but it's a way for them to end it when McCain brings it up. I still think that's risky. Why answer "fine" to that question? You've conceded your inexperience then. I don't think they should deal with that at all. Beat her on issues. Not everything is a good hatchet play and this is one of those times to use caution. I guess a better way to say what I meant is this: A VP is supposed to be someone prepared to assume the Presidency should something happen to the President. If McCain is saying (as he should be) that Palin has the experience to assume the Presidency if needed, then he is tacitly saying that Obama must be just as capable, despite experience, of assuming that same position. Obviously, I don't think the average voter will come to that line of reasoning and realize "Oh my God! This whole 'experience' thing was just a political angle!" But to me, McCain's selection is an admission that someone with experience as limited as Palin's can be President of the United States. |
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Aug 30, 2008 13:38:47 GMT -5
I still think that's risky. Why answer "fine" to that question? You've conceded your inexperience then. I don't think they should deal with that at all. Beat her on issues. Not everything is a good hatchet play and this is one of those times to use caution. I guess a better way to say what I meant is this: A VP is supposed to be someone prepared to assume the Presidency should something happen to the President. If McCain is saying (as he should be) that Palin has the experience to assume the Presidency if needed, then he is tacitly saying that Obama must be just as capable, despite experience, of assuming that same position. Obviously, I don't think the average voter will come to that line of reasoning and realize "Oh my God! This whole 'experience' thing was just a political angle!" But to me, McCain's selection is an admission that someone with experience as limited as Palin's can be President of the United States. That's because you support Obama. People who haven't made up their mind still want experience in the #1 slot. This is why I think this so dangerous. People who already support Obama will see this as an admission that experience doesn't matter. That's not true at all. You can flip this in two seconds. "The VP is supposed to be the president's closest confidant and advisor. But the VP is not supposed to be the person running the country. We have already had 8 years of that model and it hasn't worked. Senator Biden you are a strong and experienced leader. But unfortunately the democratic presidential candidate is Barack Obama. We can't afford another 4 years of 'presidency by committee.'" I just flipped it, panned Obama, and killed Bush in 4 sentences. And I'm a guy on a message board. I'm pretty sure the McCain campaign can come up with a way to use this to their advantage. I'm just saying, they have to be careful here. |
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Post by strummer8526 on Aug 30, 2008 13:49:50 GMT -5
Yeah I definitely agree. We can certainly keep going back and forth, but I think we agree that "experience" can be a double-edged sword. I just think that as of 3 days ago, the only party hurt by an "experience" argument was the Dems. Now, there's at least some kind of intellectually satisfying response for the Dems. People committed on either side will remain where they are. It remains to be seen how independents will respond to "experience" now, and both sides should probably be cautious with the argument.
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sead43
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Post by sead43 on Aug 30, 2008 14:18:21 GMT -5
McCain's thoughts on Palin's "lack" of experience compared to Obama's: QUOTE: Q: Given her young age and relatively short resume, why is she any more ready to be president than Sen. Barack Obama? JOHN: I don't think it's a short resume. She first ran for office back in 1992. I don't know what Senator Obama was doing then, but the first time she ran was 1992. That's 16 years. I think that's a pretty, pretty event-filled and record-filled resume. SARAH: And I haven't had too many years other than that to fill up yet. JOHN: There you go. Q: Do you feel ready to be a heartbeat away from the presidency? SARAH: Absolutely. Yup, yup. Especially with a good team around us. www.people.com/people/article/0,,20222685_1,00.html |
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Aug 30, 2008 14:50:20 GMT -5
Let me also say that I think it's a misread that this is being seen as appealing to Hillary supporters to swing over. McCain is already popular with older women. He just wants to stretch some of that lead by getting them to the polls. But I don't think anyone seriously believes this will pull a ton of Hillary voters.
The real play here is with Today show watchers in middle America. McCain didn't say "Hey ladies" here as much as he said "Oh I'm out of touch, am I?" He probably thinks he can move Ohio into sure thing territory and get Obama nervous on Michigan. He might be right.
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Aug 30, 2008 15:48:43 GMT -5
McCain's thoughts on Palin's "lack" of experience compared to Obama's: QUOTE: Q: Given her young age and relatively short resume, why is she any more ready to be president than Sen. Barack Obama? JOHN: I don't think it's a short resume. She first ran for office back in 1992. I don't know what Senator Obama was doing then, but the first time she ran was 1992. That's 16 years. I think that's a pretty, pretty event-filled and record-filled resume. SARAH: And I haven't had too many years other than that to fill up yet. JOHN: There you go. Q: Do you feel ready to be a heartbeat away from the presidency? SARAH: Absolutely. Yup, yup. Especially with a good team around us. www.people.com/people/article/0,,20222685_1,00.html I've said it before and I'll say it again: There has not been NEARLY enough Meghan McCain on the campaign trail in this election.  Someone change that please (because that would be a change we can all believe in). [Plus, Sarah Palin has a daughter named Willow. That's pretty cool in and of itself. Don't Edited her off, she might skin you.] |
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Aug 30, 2008 16:37:46 GMT -5
I think you can count on one hand the people outside Alaska and outside the Beltway who have ever heard of the Bridge to Nowhere, let alone have any idea what it is. And TBird, you know the Bridge to Nowhere was not connecting Anchorage to Wasilla. The infmaous project was down in Ketchikan, south of Juneau, on the inside passage. The bridge over the Knik Arm is not even remotely the same thing. Having driven from Anchorage to Wasilla, it may seem like nowhere in the middle of winter, but c'mon. Both bridges were in the Highways bill and both have been called the "Bridge to Nowhere". I understand the importance of both bridges, and I've driven around the Cook Inlet to Mat-Su. It was still called a "Bridge to Nowhere" just like a recent attempt by Stevens to get a high speed ferry from Anchorage to Mat-Su was called a "Ferry to Nowhere" www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/20/AR2007122002518_pf.html |
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Jack
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Post by Jack on Aug 30, 2008 17:25:44 GMT -5
McCain's thoughts on Palin's "lack" of experience compared to Obama's: QUOTE: Q: Given her young age and relatively short resume, why is she any more ready to be president than Sen. Barack Obama? JOHN: I don't think it's a short resume. She first ran for office back in 1992. I don't know what Senator Obama was doing then, but the first time she ran was 1992. That's 16 years. I think that's a pretty, pretty event-filled and record-filled resume. SARAH: And I haven't had too many years other than that to fill up yet. JOHN: There you go. Q: Do you feel ready to be a heartbeat away from the presidency? SARAH: Absolutely. Yup, yup. Especially with a good team around us. www.people.com/people/article/0,,20222685_1,00.html I've said it before and I'll say it again: There has not been NEARLY enough Meghan McCain on the campaign trail in this election. Someone change that please (because that would be a change we can all believe in). [Plus, Sarah Palin has a daughter named Willow. That's pretty cool in and of itself. Don't Edited her off, she might skin you.] She also has a daughter named Bristol, reportedly named after the location of a certain four letter entertainment and sports network, so I am not too sure what that says about her. Probably nothing good. And I will be happy to see more of Ashley Biden, myself. |
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FewFAC
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Post by FewFAC on Aug 30, 2008 17:30:21 GMT -5
Looks like someone found the plaque for the alternates.
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Aug 30, 2008 17:56:45 GMT -5
I've said it before and I'll say it again: There has not been NEARLY enough Meghan McCain on the campaign trail in this election. Someone change that please (because that would be a change we can all believe in). [Plus, Sarah Palin has a daughter named Willow. That's pretty cool in and of itself. Don't Edited her off, she might skin you.] She also has a daughter named Bristol, reportedly named after the location of a certain four letter entertainment and sports network, so I am not too sure what that says about her. Probably nothing good. And I will be happy to see more of Ashley Biden, myself. Isn't there a Bristol Bay in Alaska? I find that more likely. Although that doesn't explain her other children Berman Palin, Ravech Palin, and Outsidethelines Palin. |
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Jack
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Post by Jack on Aug 30, 2008 18:09:54 GMT -5
I saw somewhere (I can't remember where now- maybe Deadspin) that young Sarah Palin had wanted to be a sports reporter and did name her daughter after ESPN's headquarters. I googled to try to find where I saw it, and let's just say some interesting rumors came up (but nothing to confirm my story). Edit: money.cnn.com/2008/08/29/news/newsmakers/palin_oil.fortune/index.htm?cnn=yes |
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EasyEd
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Post by EasyEd on Aug 30, 2008 18:33:07 GMT -5
This is plagerized and altered.
On one ticket we have two least coast lawyers who like to talk and talk. On the other ticket we have a hot beauty queen and a war hero who's married to a woman who owns a beer distributorship. Easy choice.
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sead43
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Post by sead43 on Aug 30, 2008 18:35:59 GMT -5
From the same People interview I quoted above:
QUOTE:
Q: Where do your children's names come from?
TODD: Sarah's parents were coaches and the whole family was involved in track and I was an athlete in high school, so with our first-born, I was, like, 'Track!' Bristol is named after Bristol Bay. That's where I grew up, that's where we commercial fish. Willow is a community there in Alaska. And then Piper, you know, there's just not too many Pipers out there and it's a cool name. And Trig is a Norse name for "strength."
I saw Keith Olbermann making fun of her early ambitions to work for ESPN on his show the other day and he said something about the possibility of her naming her daughter after the network's headquarters, but it was obviously total speculation and really just a joke. That's how crazy rumors start though.
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Jack
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Post by Jack on Aug 30, 2008 18:42:01 GMT -5
Well that is more plausible, though I didn't get my info from Olberman- it was in the CNN/Money article linked above.
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