BET Seeding Scenarios and Tiebreakers

[hoyarooter]

Mar 6, 2008 21:40:50 GMT -5 Cambridge said:

And UConn continues to play the best basketball in the Big East.

What a joke.

They must have had the flu. Yeah, that's it. UConn didn't peak early. They're clearly better than we are, and we're just myopic Hoya fans.

[chep3]

Time for ESPN to start piling on UConn as "overrated" when they were the ones hyping them up in the first place.

[bostonhoya05]

I wouldn't stake my life on this but here goes...


Georgetown and Louisville
- Winner gets #1
- Loser gets #2

ND (hosts USF)
Win: #3
Loss: #4 if UConn win over Cincy; #3 if UConn loss (Uconn wins tiebreaker based on win over Louisville)

UConn (hosts Cincy)
Win: #3 if ND loss to USF; #4 if ND win
Loss: #4 (would win tiebreaker over Marquette due to head-to-head)

Marquette (at Cuse)
Win: #5 (can do no better)
Loss: #6 if WV win over St. Johns (WV beat Marquette); #5 if WV loss

WV (atSt. J)
Win: #5 if Marquette loss at Cuse; #6 if Marquette win
Loss: #7 if Pitt win over Depaul (Pitt wins tiebreaker based on win over Gtown); #6 if Pitt loss

Pitt (hosts Depaul)
Win: #6 if WV loss to St. J; #7 if WV win
Loss: Complicated. Would be 9-9 and in possible 4-team tie (with Cuse, Nova, and Cincy - all currently 8-9).

Here are the various tiebreakers for that 4-team mix:
4-way tie (Pitt L, Cincy W, Cuse W, Nova W)
7. Cincy (3-1)
8. Pitt (3-2)
9. Nova (2-3)
10. Cuse (1-3)

3-way tie (Pitt L, Cuse W, Nova W) (Cincy L)
7. Pitt (2-1)
8. Nova (2-2)
9. Cuse (1-2)
(10. SH/Cincy - SH owns tiebreak)

3-way tie (Pitt L, Cincy W, Nova W) (Cuse L)
7. Cincy (2-1)
8. Pitt (2-2)
9. Nova (1-2)
(10. Cuse)

3-way tie (Pitt L, Cincy W, Cuse W) (Nova L)
7/8. Pitt and Cincy both 2-1 in mini-conference; tiebreaker would actually come down to who won the Georgetown-Louisville game because Cincy beat Louisville and Pitt beat Georgetown
9. Cuse
(10. Nova)

2-way ties (Pitt and ____ competing
- Pitt would beat out Cuse (head-to-head)
- Pitt would beat out Nova (split head-to-head but Pitt beat Gtown)
- Pitt and Cincy would depend on who won Gtown-Louisville (If Gtown wins, Pitt wins tiebreaker; if Louisville wins, Cincy wins tiebreaker)

SUM:
Even if Pitt loses, the only team that can jump them is Cincy (and they have to beat UConn)

Cincy (at UConn)
Win: If Pitt won, they'd be #8 (they win tiebreakers over Cuse and Nova); If Pitt loses, they could climb to #7 (see mess above)
Loss: Complicated because they open the door to Seton Hall (who plays Rutgers). Cincy could fall to 11 in that scenario.

Cuse (hosts Marq)
Win: They're in the 9-9 mess above. Cuse loses 3-way tiebreak to Cincy and Nova. Cuse loses straight up tiebreak with Nova. Cuse loses straight-up tiebreak with Cincy. Sum: Best they can do is 8 (with help).
- If Syracuse, Cincy, and Nova finish in a 3-way tie at 9-9. Cincy will win the 3-way tiebreaker (or a 2-way tiebreaker over either of the other 2 teams) because Cincy beat them both. It would then revert to a tiebreak between Cuse and Nova - Cuse would appear to have the advantage based on their win against Georgetown but that wouldn't matter because of the "uneven games" rule (Cuse played us twice, Nova only once). So you'd look at either ND or Uconn (whoever finishes higher). Both teams lost to ND, so that would be irrelevant. Nova beat Uconn, Cuse lost to them. So Nova would be second and Cuse last of those 3.
Loss: If Cuse loses, they're #10. (they win tiebreak over SH, would lose tiebreaks to Cincy and Nova).

Nova (hosts Prov)
Win: They can't jump Pitt, so best they can do is 8th. They lose tiebreak with Cincy, but win tiebreak with Cuse. I think they are pretty locked into the 8-9 game with a win.
Loss: If Cuse loses, they're 8-9. If Cuse wins, they're 10.

SH (Rutgers)
Win: Could climb to 10 with Cincy loss. Otherwise, 11)
Loss: Locked in at 11 (beat both Depaul and Prov)

Prov (Nova)
Win: In. Would win tiebreak over Depaul thanks to their success against UConn (Prov and Depaul split and neither team beat Gtown, Louisville, or ND)
Loss: Need losses from both Depaul and St. John's. (In 3-way tie between these teams, Depaul wins based on 2-1 mini-conf record)

Depaul (at Pitt)
Win: In with Prov loss.
Loss: Out.

St. John's, USF, Rutgers
See you in November.

St. John's is out because the best they can do is a 3-way tie for the #12 spot and the mini-conference is:
Depaul 2-1
St. John's 1-1
Prov 1-2

[Coast2CoastHoya]

Kinda sad that St John's is out this year.

Freakin' AWESOME that the HOYAS are the #1 seed!

[hoyasexy]

Mar 3, 2008 21:27:27 GMT -5 bostonhoya05 said:

UPDATED: Saturday 7pm.

1. Gtown 14-4 - play Thursday, Noon

2. Louis 14-4 - play Thursday, 7pm

Boston, great work compiling and updating over the last week or so. But I see no reason for you to shortchange our season. Pretty sure we won today (I was there, and it felt like a win to me), leaving us at 15-3.

[Big Dog]

Here's where we're at at 10pm EST Saturday night:

*denotes final position

1. Georgetown*
2. Louisville*
3. Notre Dame*
4. Connecticut*
5. West Virginia*
6. Marquette*
7. Pittsburgh (9-8), tomorrow vs. DePaul
8. Villanova (9-9), finished
9. Syracuse (9-9), finished
10. Cincinnati (8-9), tomorrow @ UConn
11. Seton Hall (7-10), tomorrow vs. Rutgers
12. DePaul (6-11), tomorrow @ Pitt
13. Providence (6-12), finished

ELIMINATED: SJU, USF, RU

Games Remaining:

DePaul @ Pitt (12pm EST)
Rutgers @ SHU (2pm EST)
Cincy @ UConn (6pm EST)

Scenarios for tomorrow (assuming bostonhoya's tiebreaker analysis is 100% correct):

Pitt W, SHU W/L, Cincy W, - Pitt #7, Cincy #8, Nova #9, Syracuse #10, SHU #11, Prov #12

Pitt L, SHU W/L, Cincy W - Cincy #7, Pitt #8, Nova #9, Syracuse #10, SHU #11, DePaul #12

Pitt W, SHU W, Cincy L - Pitt #7, Nova #8, Syracuse #9, SHU #10, Cincy #11, Prov #12

Pitt L, SHU W, Cincy L - Pitt #7, Nova #8, Syracuse #9, SHU #10, Cincy #11, DePaul #12

Pitt W, SHU L, Cincy L - Pitt #7, Nova #8, Syracuse #9, Cincy #10, SHU #11, Prov #12

Pitt L, SHU L, Cincy L - Pitt #7, Nova #8, Syracuse #9, Cincy #10, SHU #11, DePaul #12

Basically, if, like me, you'd rather not have the chance to play Syracuse, you root for Cincinnati to beat UConn tomorrow.

How about Cincinnati? They could finish at 7, 8, 10, or 11.

[HoNYaSaxa]

Thanks, Big Dog. We're all Bearcat fans tomorrow.

[JimmyHoya]

The difficulty of the Big East tournament never ceases to amaze me.

[HoyaInsomniac]

Wow, what a mess. Thanks for pulling all that together, boston. Keeping my fingers crossed for Cincy!

[Big Dog]

[EDIT--See updated post below.]

[bostonhoya05]

Good stuff, Big Dog.

I think my analysis is correct.

Cincy win would make a 3-way tie:
Cincy 2-0
Nova 1-2
Cuse 1-2

Cuse and Nova split head-to-head, so you'd move through the standings until you found a valid comparison. Cuse doesn't get credit for their win against Georgetown because of the unequal games rule. So they'd be behind Nova.

If Cincy loses, Nova would still be ahead of Cuse for the same reason (though it would be irrelevant because they'd be locked into 8-9).

And the Seton Hall win over Cincy would give them the edge.

[HOYAPLAYA]

I got a question...when all 16 teams become eligible for the BET next year, does that mean there is no bye for the top teams??

[FLHoya]

Mar 9, 2008 13:52:15 GMT -5 HOYAPLAYA said:

I got a question...when all 16 teams become eligible for the BET next year, does that mean there is no bye for the top teams??

1st Round (Tuesday): Teams 9-16 play
2nd Round (Wednesday): TUES winners play Teams 5-8
Quarters (Thursday): WED winners play Teams 1-4


Am I correct that as far as 2008 goes, right now the 8-9 game is Nova vs. Cincy/Cuse? Cincy if they beat UConn, Cuse if UConn wins?

[HOYAPLAYA]

Mar 9, 2008 13:56:26 GMT -5 FLHoya said:

Mar 9, 2008 13:52:15 GMT -5 HOYAPLAYA said:

I got a question...when all 16 teams become eligible for the BET next year, does that mean there is no bye for the top teams??

1st Round (Tuesday): Teams 9-16 play
2nd Round (Wednesday): TUES winners play Teams 5-8
Quarters (Thursday): WED winners play Teams 1-4


Am I correct that as far as 2008 goes, right now the 8-9 game is Nova vs. Cincy/Cuse? Cincy if they beat UConn, Cuse if UConn wins?

So that means a team ranked 9th would have to win 5 games (Tues thru Sat) in order to win the Championship. I think this will add another interesting pocket of games as the season winds down as teams jockey to finish in the top half of the league.

[Big Dog]

With the Huskies up 32 at the half against Cincy and Rutgers having beaten SHU, I think its fair to assume that the following represents the final standings.


1. Georgetown
2. Louisville
3. Notre Dame
4. Connecticut
5. West Virginia
6. Marquette
7. Pittsburgh
8. Villanova
9. Syracuse
10. Cincinnati
11. Seton Hall
12. Providence

ELIMINATED: DePaul, SJU, USF, RU

Games Remaining:

BET Matchups (Wednesday)

8 Villanova vs. 9 Syracuse, Noon EST
5 WVU vs. 12 Providence, 2pm EST
7 Pitt vs. 10 Cincy, 7pm EST
6 Marquette vs. 11 Seton Hall, 9pm EST


BET Thursday

1 Georgetown vs. Nova/Syracuse, Noon EST
4 UConn vs. WVU/Providence, 2pm EST
2 Louisville vs. Pitt/Cincy, 7pm EST
3 ND vs. Marq/SHU, 9pm EST

BET Friday

Gtown/Nova/Syracuse vs. UConn/WVU/Providence, 7pm EST
Louisville/Pitt/Cincy vs. ND/Marq/SHU, 9pm EST

BET Saturday
Championship, 9pm EST

In my view, we have the absolute hardest draw in the entire tournament. I would rather play any of the other six teams playing Wednesday instead of Nova/Syracuse. I would rather play ND on Friday than UConn.

This will is a tall order, kids. If we win it, it will be testament to how many top echelon NCAA teams are this year, because our RPI, quality wins, etc. will be through the roof and we still probably couldn't get a 1 seed.

Go Hoyas.

[hoyasexy]

Pretty sure we can ink Nova and Cuse in for the 8/9 game. Cincy currently getting pounded by UConn.

[DFW HOYA]

So much for that Cincinnati upset bid...

8:00 2nd

UC(onn) 82
UC(incinnati) 32

76% FG in 2nd half. And Old Man Calhoun still has the first stringers in.

[royski]

Mar 9, 2008 18:42:27 GMT -5 DFW HOYA said:

So much for that Cincinnati upset bid...

8:00 2nd

UC(onn) 82
UC(incinnati) 32

76% FG in 2nd half. And Old Man Calhoun still has the first stringers in.

Strike first, strike hard, no mercy sir!

[prhoya]

Yes, our schedule looks the toughest.

I love the potential quarters' matchups: UConn vs. their nemesis Providence; Pitt and Cincy play hard vs. Luhvul; ND and MU have played each other forever; and what can you say about a potential Syracuse or Nova vs. GU.

Calhoun will be in Mountaneer yellow Wednesady night.

[GIGAFAN99]

Any draw in this tournament is tough when you start in the round of 8 where all 8 are probably in the NCAAs.

Louisville won't be crazy about seeing a Pitt team they beat by 2. ND and Marquette? The same Marquette that beat them by 26? UConn gets Huggins or a Providence team that swept them?

It's all tough. We were afraid of 'Nova and wanted ND last year and ended up sitting on a 22 point lead against the Wildcats and beating ND by 2. That's the Big East.