dTRAIN
Century (over 100 posts)
Posts: 189
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Post by dTRAIN on Feb 15, 2008 10:06:44 GMT -5
OK, I'm hoping a smarter person than me can answer this one.
Yesterday, Louisville was ahead of us in the Pomeroy rankings. Today, we are ahead of them. Neither team played.....I don't get it. I know how this can happen in RPI (opponents, opponents opponents) but I thought Pomeroy was more based on your efficiency rankings. I get how teams could move up (team above you plays poorly) but how an 2 idle teams flip flop.
Thanks.
dTRAIN
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Feb 15, 2008 10:25:03 GMT -5
well we're only different from louisville by .0002. so i'm sure it was just our OOC opponents winning, fordham and michigan.
Also stanford lost leaving the door open for us to move up.
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SFHoya99
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 17,987
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Post by SFHoya99 on Feb 15, 2008 10:30:10 GMT -5
The efficiency rankings are adjusted for level of competition.
I expect we were really, really close, and Fordham and Michigan playing well made our performances against them look a bit better.
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Post by HoyasAreHungry on Feb 15, 2008 10:47:16 GMT -5
I saw part of the Stanford game last night...anyone else not that impressed with Stanford? I can see why they give smaller teams some match-up problems (and granted this was the first time I have seen them play this year) but I didn't turn the game off overly impressed. Anyone else seen them play more wish to comment?
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dTRAIN
Century (over 100 posts)
Posts: 189
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Post by dTRAIN on Feb 15, 2008 10:51:41 GMT -5
I had no idea that the efficiency was updated for level of competition. That explains it.
THANKS!
dTRAIN
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GUJook97
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,445
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Post by GUJook97 on Feb 15, 2008 10:57:46 GMT -5
Yeah, I am selling on Stanford. IMO, all the teams in the Pac 10 are somewhat inflated by the absurdity of Arizona. Because Arizona has played AND LOST to everyone, they are hanging around the top 15 of the RPI all year long. Stanford has benefited from playing the easier part of their schedule earlier. I said this last week, but the rest of their games are very tough. I wouldnt be surprised if they fell off the map to some extent. That has started already with a loss to ASU. It gets tougher with them still having to go to Arizona, USC and UCLA.
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bmartin
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 2,459
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Post by bmartin on Feb 15, 2008 11:02:00 GMT -5
If you look at the adjusted efficiencies on Pomeroy's more detailed stats pages, Georgetown is 1.1 points better per 100 offensive possessions; Louisville is 0.8 points better per 100 defensive possessions, for a difference of 0.3 points in 100 possessions. That is so close that slight changes in the opponents offensive and defensive stats are enough to change the adjustments and the ranking.
Georgetown - Raw offensive efficiency 111.9 (28); Adjusted OE 115.1 (24)
Louisville - Raw OE 107.6 (72); Adjusted OE 114.0 (35)
Georgetown - Raw defensive efficiency 90.7 (13); Adjusted DE 85.4 (7)
Louisville - Raw DE 89.3 (8); Adjusted DE 84.6 (5)
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Post by Hoya TMF on Feb 15, 2008 11:53:04 GMT -5
for those knocking stanford, how many times do you think someone on a message board has written the same thing about us? i'm going to say pretty darn often this season. not that it really matters, but i think they are legit. if their guards play well, they can give any team in the country fits because their bigs are really really good. we'll see how the rest of the pac-10 season shakes out, but stanford could definitely win the pac-10 tourney and are clearly challenging for the regular season title as well.
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Post by HoyasAreHungry on Feb 15, 2008 12:07:51 GMT -5
for those knocking stanford, how many times do you think someone on a message board has written the same thing about us? i'm going to say pretty darn often this season. not that it really matters, but i think they are legit. if their guards play well, they can give any team in the country fits because their bigs are really really good. we'll see how the rest of the pac-10 season shakes out, but stanford could definitely win the pac-10 tourney and are clearly challenging for the regular season title as well. again really was not knocking them per say....especially after only seeing them play for the first time for a half. Stanford was a team that kind of snuck up on people (at least for me) under the radar and has not really been talked about by the media. I was just wondering if anyone else had seen them play more this year and could give an opinion. I see they definitely have some dangerous players that cause match-up problems for teams but seeing ASU (running a similar offense by Sendek that we do) dismantle them. Side note: Without a doubt people have said the same thing and worse about us in message boards, but that's not really the point now is it? Just wanted some more info on them |
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Feb 15, 2008 12:42:23 GMT -5
I saw Stanford in person against Siena back in November. Granted they didn't have one of the big twins (academics), but Siena controlled the entire game, were far more aggressive, and won fairly easily. My impression was that Stanford has to shoot very well to compete at the top level, and that they lacked intensity and toughness. Don't see them getting through the second round.
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SFHoya99
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 17,987
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Post by SFHoya99 on Feb 15, 2008 12:45:38 GMT -5
Stanford is similar to us. They have an incredible lost post player in Brook Lopez, a nice backup/defensive player in Robin, an ultra-efficient perimeter player in Lawrence Hill... and guards who are not quite as talented and can have some really bad games.
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GUJook97
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,445
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Post by GUJook97 on Feb 15, 2008 13:02:03 GMT -5
Yeah, I am not killing Stanford, I just dont think they are a top 10 team, which is why I am selling them - #8-9 is as high as they will ever be. (If people want to say that about us, so be it). I think they will fall back a little bit by losing down the stretch.
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Post by JohnnyJones on Feb 15, 2008 14:04:25 GMT -5
OK, I'm hoping a smarter person than me can answer this one. I don't know that I ever remember a post on this Board that every single other registrant on the Board was qualified to respond to. |
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Post by FrostbackHoya on Feb 15, 2008 15:28:18 GMT -5
OK, I'm hoping a smarter person than me can answer this one. I don't know that I ever remember a post on this Board that every single other registrant on the Board was qualified to respond to. >> Look who's talkin'. At least dTrain is kind to animals and Canucks... y'all spent your Hoya years enraging Dave and inflicting yourself on Australia... |
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HoyaChris
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,414
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Post by HoyaChris on Feb 15, 2008 18:52:45 GMT -5
The Pomeroy Ratings are a linear program that uses least squares regression analysis to assess each teams position on a nightly basis. The Hoyas had actually been tied with Louisville out to the 4 decimal point level the day before, so the Louisville lead over the Hoyas was infinitesimally decided at the fifth decimal level.
Without going through the complete results of both team's opponents, the Hoyas got relative pick-ups from the previously mentioned Fordham and Michigan wins and also from the West Virginia blowout of Rutgers which hurt Louisville because they have played Rutgers twice to our one time.
Speaking of Pomeroy, our adjusted offensive efficiency which was as high as third in the country has been steadily declining to its current 24th place since the Memphis game, while our adjusted defensive efficiency has improved from the mid 30s to its current seventh position.
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canissaxa
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 524
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Post by canissaxa on Feb 15, 2008 19:54:54 GMT -5
So I was a bit peeved with some of the guys at Basketball Prospectus (including Pomeroy, who was one of my heroes defending the Hoyas last year even when most people not on this board had written us off) for writing recently that Louisville is clearly better than us even when we were a notch ahead of them on the Pomeroy ratings (at the time). Then it occurred to me that the rankings include the entire year and they have had some serious personnel issues stopping them from playing at their top level through the year. So that's probably the justification for the tempo-free guys to pick them as the (until recently) unsung star of the Big East.
I think it's going a bit too far to say that they are better than the Hoyas just yet, but tomorrow will be a big test. I personally think that JTIIIs habit of playing a very deep rotation in the "pre-season" actually keeps our tempo-free numbers (especially offensively) a bit lower than they would be otherwise, but I may be a bit of a homer.
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royski
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 2,300
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Post by royski on Feb 15, 2008 20:18:39 GMT -5
We got our asses handed to us by them, I'm fine with pundits saying that they're better than us until we return the favor.
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dTRAIN
Century (over 100 posts)
Posts: 189
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Post by dTRAIN on Feb 16, 2008 9:01:23 GMT -5
OK, I'm hoping a smarter person than me can answer this one. I don't know that I ever remember a post on this Board that every single other registrant on the Board was qualified to respond to. Not everyone......hifi is still on the board, isn't he? dTRAIN |
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Jack
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,411
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Post by Jack on Feb 20, 2008 12:50:03 GMT -5
Can anyone explain how Tennessee is no 1 in RPI and no 15 in Pomeroy? I know they are not the same calculation, but that is a pretty staggering disparity for the no 2 team in the polls. Although still not as big a difference as Vandy (no 10 RPI, no 47 Pomeroy), I suppose. I thought maybe the SEC is rated very differently by the two, but RPI has them at 5, KenPom at 6.
The Big 12 also has some unusual difference- KSU is 6 in KenPom v. 30 RPI, Texas A&M 19 in KenPom, 38 RPI.
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SFHoya99
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 17,987
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Post by SFHoya99 on Feb 20, 2008 23:00:11 GMT -5
RPI entirely determined by winning percentage, opponents' winning percentage and opponents' opponents' winning percentage.
Pomeroy incorporates margin of victory into all of the above. Simple answer: Tennessee has won more games than expected by points for and points against, and likely against weaker competition who may have inflated W-L records relative to actual ability.
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