chep3
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Post by chep3 on Jun 6, 2007 8:49:40 GMT -5
I don't necessarily think thats what the article is trying to say. I think it's more pointing out to the fan who sees the results of these tests that even the NBA scouts dont really take this thing all too seriously. Maybe Durant does only have a 33 in vertical at the combine, but if he ends up with the same jumping ability as Iguodala (34 in according to the article), he'll be duplicating Dwight Howard's 12 ft sticker dunk.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Jun 6, 2007 9:34:42 GMT -5
Giga, you don't have a leg to stand on here. You said Durant wrecked college basketball like no one had before. You were wrong. I didn't have to look far to find a couple of examples, both of whom played in a much tougher era. I don't have time to look for the many other players who might have done just as well.
I find comparing Durant to Bird absurd, or silly or whatever other word you want to use. The players don't really play that similarly and Durant has done nothing to earn him that kind of praise yet.
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Post by ilovescruggs on Jun 6, 2007 9:37:11 GMT -5
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Jun 6, 2007 9:51:52 GMT -5
You want another player that Durant totally outplayed? Glenn Robinson. Just as good a freshman. Carmelo's right there and when you throw in the title, I'd say he did better. Stephon Marbury isn't that far off. Kenny Anderson had just as good a year. Shareef Abdur-Rahim was only a few PPG off. Mitch Richmond came pretty close at Kansas State, though he wasn't as good. Same with Allan Houston.
Mark Aguirre put up 24 and 8. Adrian Dantley put up 18 and 9 (admittedly not as good, but not exactly blown away). Heck, even Joe Forte had 16 and 6 as a freshman. Jason Kapono put up 16 ppg as a frosh!
Is that enough?
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chep3
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Post by chep3 on Jun 6, 2007 9:55:36 GMT -5
Chad Ford has a blog entry that's saying the same things as the Draft Express article essentially. But he also attributes it to Durant not hiring a trainer prior to the combine and to getting caught up in the commercial/endorsement thing. It doesn't sound like he thinks it's too serious, and seems to insinuate that Durant will be fine because all of this will shake him out of his casual approach to the combine.
SFHoya, you're taking Giga's argument way too literally. While you might be right in refuting his individual words, you're ignoring the gist of the argument. Durant was ridiculously productive for any player, and close to an all time level for a freshman. All Giga was insinuating was that that productivity should provide loftier comparisons for Durant than merely Rashard Lewis, who while a star, is not the player Durant very well could be.
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Jun 6, 2007 10:04:55 GMT -5
You want another player that Durant totally outplayed? Glenn Robinson. Just as good a freshman. Carmelo's right there and when you throw in the title, I'd say he did better. Stephon Marbury isn't that far off. Kenny Anderson had just as good a year. Shareef Abdur-Rahim was only a few PPG off. Mitch Richmond came pretty close at Kansas State, though he wasn't as good. Same with Allan Houston. Mark Aguirre put up 24 and 8. Adrian Dantley put up 18 and 9 (admittedly not as good, but not exactly blown away). Heck, even Joe Forte had 16 and 6 as a freshman. Jason Kapono put up 16 ppg as a frosh! Is that enough? If 16 and 6 is close to 26 and 11 with 20 30-point games and every major PoY in college basketball then yes I'm terribly wrong. But is it really? I mean REALLY? You're casting a pretty wide net here. There have been good freshman and even great freshman. But every Joe Blow who had a nice season doesn't compare to a kid who was the consensus best player in all of college basketball like Durant. On the list above though, I will give you Glenn Robinson. He was a monster. Note: And chep does have it right. The point is, Durant is a very rare talent as a freshman. He's not "Rashard Lewis with a better handle and attitude." I don't think if you draft Durant, you expect Lewis-level talent. You expect Garnett-level talent.
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HoyaFanNY
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Post by HoyaFanNY on Jun 6, 2007 10:25:04 GMT -5
sf, you are taking this way too seriously. you've really gone over the edge...jason kapono??? come on. durant was a much better college freshman than any of the players you mentioned other than bird (transfer) and robinson (prop 48), who btw were both 20 as freshman while durant won't turn 19 until september. anyone who saw durant play knows he's much better than you are giving him credit for.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Jun 6, 2007 10:32:57 GMT -5
Chep,
I'm not getting my point across at all. The first half of my argument is simple: what Durant has done is not all that special. Chris Jackson put up thirty a game his freshman year. Glenn Robinson basically put up Durant's numbers. So did Aguirre. Kenny Anderson. Kenny Anderson. Carmelo. (My point with Forte and Kapono is that they weren't that far off and they aren't even good NBA players).
People are lauding Durant as if this has never happened, instead of something that happens about every five years. He was a great college player, but let's not act as if we haven't seen great college players before -- and they aren't guaranteed to be great pros.
Part Two: Any comparisons to Larry Bird are crazy.
Part Three: What's wrong with Rashard Lewis with a better handle, and hopefully a better work ethic? Lewis has been to an all-star game and has settled in as a 20 ppg scorer with 6-7 rpg and 1/1bpg/spg. Add a handle to that to make him more than a jump shooter and thus add a few points.
Without a work ethic, that's what Durant will be. Glenn Robinson didn't have one, let himself get overweight and ended up being nothing more. Rashard Lewis certainly didn't fulfill his complete potential. Neither did Shareef Abdur-Rahim.
I don't understand why anyone would put out a comp that is supposed to be the best a player can be, or something well above that 50% probability mark. Using Bird as a comp is ridiculous in that sense -- Durant could have a Bird-like career, but it's hardly the most likely outcome.
Rashard Lewis with a handle -- say 25 ppg, 6-7 rpg... then hopefully add a work ethic -- 28-29 ppg, 9 rpg, plays defense. That's a helluva player. Maybe better than the average outcome of Durant's career. That might be better than I expect. Carmelo had a very similar year and it took until this year for him really to hit his stride as an offensive player. And he's still nowhere near as complete a player as Bird.
(So, for reference, Lewis with a handle and work ethic = Carmelo to me).
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RDF
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Post by RDF on Jun 6, 2007 10:33:20 GMT -5
all I will ever remember adam morrison for is crying like a baby and flailing his arms and legs on the court when they lost...HA That I could understand--what knocked Morrison down in my eyes is that he behaved like that with TIME LEFT IN THE GAME! He emotionally checked out of that game and Gonzaga got a shot attempt at the end--although Morrison was nowhere to be seen--he was done after UCLA made that hoop and that was a pathetic display. I don't begrudge anyone for crying on the court after a tough loss--everyone reacts differently-I wouldn't react same as Morrison--but I understand it and appreciate that it hurts to lose--but with time left in a game? MAN UP!
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hifigator
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Post by hifigator on Jun 6, 2007 11:22:28 GMT -5
When did I say he'd be slightly better than Lewis? I said, and I quote, " compared Durant to Rashard Lewis at one time. I think he's got more drive and a better handle than Lewis..." Rashard Lewis with a work ethic and a handle is a star. He's already a barely sub-all star player. I'm not quite sure what getting drafted in the second round has to do with anything -- Rashard has quite enough actual NBA history that his draft status is pointless to bring up unless you are deliberately trying to be deceptive. As for your line -- "Durant just wrecked all of college basketball like nobody ever before" -- learn some freaking history. Larry Bird scored 32 ppg as a freshman. And he did it in an era when almost no one jumped to the pros immediately. He shot over 50% from the field. He led his team to a Final Four -- and that was Indiana State! Magic went to 17, 7 and 7. Chris Jackson scored 30.2 ppg his freshman year at LSU. Many freshmen have had years like Durant. Major media just has a collective brain fart if it didn't happen in the last year. Most of these freshmen didn't have the benefit of not facing the Top 10 in class in front of them, the Top 20 in the junior class and at least the Top 30 in the senior class. You also have to remember that freshmen weren't even allowed to play until some time in the 60's I think. Oscar Robertson would have put up similar numbers for sure, and in fact did, but he was playing on the freshmen team, which by the way, beat many full fledged teams. If I remember correctly, his freshmen team beat their "real" team handily and his numbers were sick in that game. It was something like 33 poitns, 12 rebounds and 15 assists. FYI, "The Big O" is a great read for anyone who likes basketball or anyone who like sports biographies.
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hifigator
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Post by hifigator on Jun 6, 2007 11:30:42 GMT -5
Chep, I'm not getting my point across at all. The first half of my argument is simple: what Durant has done is not all that special. Chris Jackson put up thirty a game his freshman year. Glenn Robinson basically put up Durant's numbers. So did Aguirre. Kenny Anderson. Kenny Anderson. Carmelo. (My point with Forte and Kapono is that they weren't that far off and they aren't even good NBA players). People are lauding Durant as if this has never happened, instead of something that happens about every five years. He was a great college player, but let's not act as if we haven't seen great college players before -- and they aren't guaranteed to be great pros. Part Two: Any comparisons to Larry Bird are crazy. Part Three: What's wrong with Rashard Lewis with a better handle, and hopefully a better work ethic? Lewis has been to an all-star game and has settled in as a 20 ppg scorer with 6-7 rpg and 1/1bpg/spg. Add a handle to that to make him more than a jump shooter and thus add a few points. Without a work ethic, that's what Durant will be. Glenn Robinson didn't have one, let himself get overweight and ended up being nothing more. Rashard Lewis certainly didn't fulfill his complete potential. Neither did Shareef Abdur-Rahim. I don't understand why anyone would put out a comp that is supposed to be the best a player can be, or something well above that 50% probability mark. Using Bird as a comp is ridiculous in that sense -- Durant could have a Bird-like career, but it's hardly the most likely outcome. Rashard Lewis with a handle -- say 25 ppg, 6-7 rpg... then hopefully add a work ethic -- 28-29 ppg, 9 rpg, plays defense. That's a helluva player. Maybe better than the average outcome of Durant's career. That might be better than I expect. Carmelo had a very similar year and it took until this year for him really to hit his stride as an offensive player. And he's still nowhere near as complete a player as Bird. (So, for reference, Lewis with a handle and work ethic = Carmelo to me). I will play the mediator here. Durant had an exceptional season and is an exceptional talent. He is AMONG the elite first year players ever. You mention some excellent company and incidentally, I got to see Chris Jackson first hand and he was incredible. He had no limit to his range and if you tried to get out on him, he would breeze by like you were standing still. He still holds the O'Conell Center scoring record with 63 points. One thing I would argue however is putting Carmelo on the list and then saying that they "aren't even good NBA players." I don't like Anthony a bit and he did go to that other school, but there is no doubting that he is at least a "good" NBA player.
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chep3
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Post by chep3 on Jun 6, 2007 11:36:26 GMT -5
Well SF for that matter, if Lewis + work ethic = Melo, then why not just compare Durant to Melo? I personally don't think that Durant will be Bird, I think McGrady is the most likely comparison because they both, to me at least, possess a similar smoothness to their offensive repertoire.
You certainly do have a sound argument that other players have had statistically similar freshman years (at least for some of the Big Dog, Action Jackson, etc.), but I don't know if you can really say that what Durant did happens once every five years. Leaving stats out the window and focusing upon watching this kid play in games, I can't say that any freshman I've seen was nearly as good (note: this will not include Big Dog, Action Jackson, and Kenny Anderson because I was like 7-10 when they were freshmen). Hell, if the kid had a competent coach, he would've averaged 35-11. I never saw a defense affect him; if he missed a shot, it's because he messed up, not because of good defense. Put him on a team with a coach that knows how to use him, and, based on the eye test, I think you're looking at someone who's closer to a 10-15 year all star than a 1 time all star.
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Post by stafford72 on Jun 6, 2007 12:35:46 GMT -5
One reference goes all the way back to Oscar. Why does everyone forget Pistol Pete? His numbers are still the all-time best and that was without the short 3-point shot that would have added at least 6 more points per game. He would have owned the ESPN highlights. Not only his made shots but his ball handling and assists were pure show. Noone before or since has combined his skill level and showmanship--not MJ-Bird-or Lebron. Too bad most of you are too young to remember. Then too, he played for his Dad in college.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Jun 6, 2007 13:13:02 GMT -5
Hifi, when did I say these guys weren't good NBA players? Most of them are. Not all of them were. Not all of them became great.
Chep, to be honest, the Melo comp came to me after the Lewis. I do think as a high schooler Lewis was a better comp from the few times I saw him. But Melo is probably better now.
As for the your other comments...people easily and quickly forget the past and how impressive people were. I don't want to belittle your observations, but most people's observations have a shelf life of about five years or less. Two non-college basketball examples:
a. LeBron's 48 point game. Incredibly impressive. But the there have been tons of games like it in history and many people hyped this "as one of the most impressive playoff games ever." One of the Top 100? Okay. One of the top 10? I doubt it. The 25 final points thing is impressive, but really, 48 in double OT against a good but not great Pistons team? I mean, it was only a year ago that Wade dropped 42-36-43-36 versus the Mavs in winning four consecutive games for the NBA title. Yes, James was more impressive, but averaging 39 ppg over four games to win an NBA title? That's not so shabby.
b. Albert Pujols start to his career. By selectively picking stats, every announcer/writer/sportscaster was saying the start to his career was historic and was comparing Pujols to Ted Williams. Pujols has had an incredible start to his career, with OPS+ of 158, 155, 189, 175, 167 and 180.
That's awesome. Here's another first six full seasons: 180, 174, 177, 212, 178, 178. That's awesomer! Who's that? Ted Williams? Stan Musial? Babe Ruth? I mean, it must've been a really long time ago, right?
No, that was Frank Thomas. In the 90s. We had to go back over ten years to find a start more historic than Pujols.
Chep, the modern media is so flavor of the week. Human memory forgets how good some of the past actually was. Predicting Durant to be Larry Bird -- not his upside but what you should expect -- is crazy to me. At Larry's height he was putting up 28, 10 and 7 on a team with a lot of other scorers. As great as Durant was at times, Larry was better and in the NBA playoffs. I don't know how you can expect that of anyone.
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Jack
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Post by Jack on Jun 6, 2007 13:34:47 GMT -5
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RDF
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Post by RDF on Jun 6, 2007 13:44:56 GMT -5
Not to get too far off topic--but for all of the money spent on Texas's athletic facilities--they sure seem to have a lot of kids who don't bother to use them or use them properly. I remember hearing about the Lions WR Roy Williams admitting he never even bothered to lift weights until he was between his JR/SR year in school--how that happens in FB, I'd like to know--but it didn't shock me that Durant hadn't touched a weight or focused on this aspect at all--and it doesn't bother me if I'm selecting. Of course I like Durant as a player--but don't see him as a dominant franchise type like everyone else--see him as a great shooting big, who is going to be an outstanding Pro--but not this game changer that some have labeled him--he played in a down year for Big XII and nobody in that league played great defense minus Texas A&M--and I'm not sure that was great defense all of the time either--some usually strong programs were down this year and Durant did what big time players do--he dominated--but he also was in over his head against USC--who threw a lot of athletic players at him and Floyd is a very good defensive coach and didn't surprise me to see Durant struggle a bit and his team fall.
That is why this silly talk of who do you take Oden/Durant is going to start fading as we get closer to draft. Which is easier to find--6'9 kids who are offensive talents facing hoop or 7'0 centers who control the paint? You take the Oden's of the world everytime--and I'll say the same next year when someone is gushing about OJ Mayo over a guy like Roy. Anytime you can get a talented center--you take him over perimeter players.
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Jun 6, 2007 13:55:47 GMT -5
Hifi, when did I say these guys weren't good NBA players? Most of them are. Not all of them were. Not all of them became great. Chep, to be honest, the Melo comp came to me after the Lewis. I do think as a high schooler Lewis was a better comp from the few times I saw him. But Melo is probably better now. As for the your other comments...people easily and quickly forget the past and how impressive people were. I don't want to belittle your observations, but most people's observations have a shelf life of about five years or less. Two non-college basketball examples: a. LeBron's 48 point game. Incredibly impressive. But the there have been tons of games like it in history and many people hyped this "as one of the most impressive playoff games ever." One of the Top 100? Okay. One of the top 10? I doubt it. The 25 final points thing is impressive, but really, 48 in double OT against a good but not great Pistons team? I mean, it was only a year ago that Wade dropped 42-36-43-36 versus the Mavs in winning four consecutive games for the NBA title. Yes, James was more impressive, but averaging 39 ppg over four games to win an NBA title? That's not so shabby. b. Albert Pujols start to his career. By selectively picking stats, every announcer/writer/sportscaster was saying the start to his career was historic and was comparing Pujols to Ted Williams. Pujols has had an incredible start to his career, with OPS+ of 158, 155, 189, 175, 167 and 180. That's awesome. Here's another first six full seasons: 180, 174, 177, 212, 178, 178. That's awesomer! Who's that? Ted Williams? Stan Musial? Babe Ruth? I mean, it must've been a really long time ago, right? No, that was Frank Thomas. In the 90s. We had to go back over ten years to find a start more historic than Pujols. Chep, the modern media is so flavor of the week. Human memory forgets how good some of the past actually was. Predicting Durant to be Larry Bird -- not his upside but what you should expect -- is crazy to me. At Larry's height he was putting up 28, 10 and 7 on a team with a lot of other scorers. As great as Durant was at times, Larry was better and in the NBA playoffs. I don't know how you can expect that of anyone. Hey listen, I'm fine with 'Melo comparisons. 'Melo is a gret player who was a great freshman. And I'm not predicting Durant to be Larry Bird but he does have a tremendous upside and an incredibly natural mid-range game. He's a better natural passer than 'Melo on a much younger and more inexperienced team than 'Melo had. All I'm saying with Durant is he is a talent at this point that I could see him being Birdlike. Whether he is or not remains to be seen. But I had more of an issue with Lewis. He's fine but not what you should expect if you draft Durant. As for Albert Pujols versus Frank Thomas, Frank Thomas is a career .300 hitter, two-time MVP, and will have 500+ home runs. He's a hall of famer and we're predicting Pujols the same way. If you want to talk triple crown stats (which is how Pujols gets grouped with Ted Williams) or if you want to talk OPS+ (which is how you group him with Frank Thomas), the worst you're saying about the guy is he's a hall of famer either way and an incredible talent. But you wouldn't say "Pujols is like Richie Sexson with a better eye" which I think any Rashard Lewis comparison for Durant would be like.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Jun 6, 2007 13:57:36 GMT -5
Jack, I hadn't read that yet but I (obviously) agree. RDF, I don't know where Durant is going to land, but I also don't understand the "guaranteed" superstar. Chep, if LeBron had been forced to college, you'd have seen a player dominate like Durant and more. I think Wade's tourney run and Melo's tourney were also very impressive in the last five years. I'd imagine Kobe's freshman year would have been something else as well. Remember, the top freshman haven't been going to college since about '96.
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chep3
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Post by chep3 on Jun 6, 2007 14:34:38 GMT -5
Hey, again, I'm not saying the guy is going to be Bird. Like I said earlier, I think the more apt comparison is McGrady. And I'm sure Kobe, Lebron, KG, Amare would have been similarly dominant in college. I don't think that maligns him at all. I'm not saying this guy is going to be the best player inthe league or anything like that. I do think he'll be a perennial all star and his success in his first year is pretty lofty. Your argument about the modern media frenzy is well taken for sure; while I do believe Lebron's performance was one of the top 15 in the playoffs, it is unfounded when people talk about it as unprecedented.
But I still don't necessarily see how that takes away from what Durant did. If anything, it's the converse of what Sports Guy is talking about. In his article, he's arguing that the modern fan feels the need to demean/forget historical players in order to appreciate current ones. Your argument is leaning towards remembering historical players in order to demean current ones. You definitely have very good points, and I'm not disputing them. I do disagree with the conclusion you made though. In my 12 years of being a college basketball fan, based on the eye test, I think that Durant is the most impressive freshmen I've seen.
And RDF, don't forget Kansas. They were an extremely good defensive team last year, the best according to Ken Pomeroy. A&M was also top 10.
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Post by DoubleOhHoya on Jun 6, 2007 14:40:21 GMT -5
um, why don't we all talk about Jeff Green?
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