Last Five Years of Early Entries

[ColumbiaHeightsHoya]

I put a list of the five years from 1999-2003 drafts of early entries in the top 12 picks who either made it or didn't in the league. I figured the drafts since then are a little too recent to determine whether someone has made it. I also had to do this from memory so some of these guys might have been seniors. And "Making It" is arbitrary:

1999
Made it: Brand, Steve Francis, Baron Davis, Lamar Odom, Jason Terry, Corey Magette.
Not so much: Jon Bender & William Avery

2000
Made it: Mike Miller
Not so much: Stromile Swift, Darius Miles, Dermarr Johnson, Joel Pryzbilla.

2001
Made it: Tyson Chandler & Eddy Curry (finally on both of these)
Not so much: Kwame Brown, Eddie Griffin, Desagana Diop, Kedrick Brown.

2002
Made it: Drew Gooden, Stoudemire, Caron Butler
Not so much: Jay Williams, Dunleavy, Dajuan Wagner, Chris Wilcox, Jared Jeffries.

2003
Made it: Bron, Melo, Bosh
Not so much: Darko, Sweetney

Now this is open to interpretation but my point is it is about fifty/fifty for early entrants to reach top 12 pick expectations. A lot of these guys could have really used another year or two in college. Discuss:

[nychoya3]

Not really fair to include foreign guys (Darko) or high schoolers in this group. I'm not sure how you can compare Jeff and Roy's experience to theirs.

The other point I'd make is that, yes, many of these guys suck, and they would suck with nine years of college ball. Jeff and Roy do not suck. Discuss.

Also, you're definitely leaving guys out. Just off the top of my head, Wade came out in 2003 after his second year of college ball (plus a redshirt year, if memory serves.)

[mplshoya]

Interesting stuff.

Speaking from a Gtown-centric position, I don't know how much Mike would have benefited from another year on the hilltop. He was absolutely dominant (more so than either Roy or Jeff) his Junior Year.

I would argue that Jared Jeffries tricking the Knicks into a 30 million dollar contract constitutes, making it.

And for what its worth, Eddie Griffin arguably "made it" in his car.

[sleepyjackson21]

Chris Wilcox definetly made it. 13.5 ppg and 7.7 rpg. Plus he signed a 3yr 24 mil contract.

[sleepyjackson21]

Oh, in 2003 you should add Dwayne Wade. I think he qualifies as made it. Good info though and point well taken.

[jacko]

DIOP is pretty solid right now. No way he was ready coming out though.

Hoyabliu: "He's just does his job really well without asking questions or trying to do too much... he's like a trash can."

I would agree with what Kornheiser said yesterday, that Jeff is a pro player right now. It certainly appears so. But in the end, nobody really knows until they get out there and play. I think a few good indicators that somebody would make it is size/athleticism for their position (whether they can make a jump to the position they'll play at the NBA level) and refinement of skills (whether their skills are ready to make the jump).

[tal1286]

not a big deal I guess, but Jay Williams was good in the NBA his rookie year. The reason why he isn't a main contributor to the Bulls or some other team at this point is the motercycle accident.

[hoyalove4ever]

tal1286 said:

not a big deal I guess, but Jay Williams was good in the NBA his rookie year. The reason why he isn't a main contributor to the Bulls or some other team at this point is the motercycle accident.

"Good" is stretching it, but jaSON Williams was at least servicable.

[HoyaAtHeart]

When you say Make it? Do you mean basketball or finanacially...because I'd say all of those guys "made it".

Also...I think you should remove Chris Wilcox...he's pretty good. Some of those guys wouldnt have benefited from another year of college (Unless you say Jay Williams would have been in class instead of riding motorcycles; Dajuan Wagner was damn near death at one point...nobody could have predicted that) And why are European players listed in there?

[jacko]

BTW, I don't know if this has been acknowledged, but Jay Williams graduated in 3 years and went to the NBA. Does that still make him early? His motorcycle escapade I think had more to do with having his head straight, a la Leon Smith (haha, not quite as severe). But it just goes to show you can't tell until they get out there.

[hoyarooter]

jacko said:

BTW, I don't know if this has been acknowledged, but Jay Williams graduated in 3 years and went to the NBA. Does that still make him early? His motorcycle escapade I think had more to do with having his head straight, a la Leon Smith (haha, not quite as severe). But it just goes to show you can't tell until they get out there.

Yes. Even though he graduated in 3 years, he had a year of basketball eligibility remaining, which makes him an early entrant. I also agree, though, that he should not be on this list at all, due to unfortunate unforeseen circumstances.

[tal1286]

hoyalove4ever said:

tal1286 said:

not a big deal I guess, but Jay Williams was good in the NBA his rookie year. The reason why he isn't a main contributor to the Bulls or some other team at this point is the motercycle accident.

"Good" is stretching it, but jaSON Williams was at least servicable.

nearly 10 ppg, 5 apg, and better than a steal per game isn't bad for a rookie point guard who's getting only 26 minutes a game.

[ColumbiaHeightsHoya]

I was leaving, "made it" up to the board. You could argue if someone makes it financially but not in terms of being a dominant player which is expected of a top pick, ie..Mike Dunleavy. I consider that to be a failure. Sweets probably is in the same category here.

You could argue that someone has made it but how long did it take. How many years did they ride pine before they make it. ex. Wilcox was a splinter special his first two to three years in the league and Jeff & Roy both seem to want to be able to play immediately. Being consistent, I should have put Curry, Chandler, Butler (maybe) & Maggette as failures based on this criteria.

As far as adding europeans, that is fine, I could leave them off. I definitely forgot D-Wade as I thought he was a senior.

The thread is open to interpretation and discussion. Drink it in boys.

[Dhall]

Good summary, but I'd guess that only 2 or 3 of those guys have made less than $15m so far and plenty have made $50m or more and that is really the issue. If you make that much money and don't blow it, you are comfortable for life even if your career comes to a quick end.

[HoyaSinceBirth]

I think Jeff made it clear that he's not being swayed by the money issue. And in my mind No matter what they're going to be making millions of dollars does a couple million really matter if you have as much as NBA stars have?

[HoyaSpirit]

Sweets was fairly dominant his junior year and that said his game could have used some improvements before going to NBA. For one, we could have expanded the range of his jumper, something that helps a lot in the NBA, especially when you're not really tall. I loved and love Sweets. I'm not saying he should definitely have stayed, though he could have benefitted in some ways from it.

People also always talk about injury potential. I'd like to know how many guys actually get injured as a total percentage and can't continue playing. Seems this is super rare, probably 1 in 2,000.

[sleepyjackson21]

The only one i can think of is Jay Williams or Bobby Hurley and both of those were off the court. Jay Williams was obviously preventable. Bobby Hurley played again but was never the same.

[chep3]

If sweets had stayed, we wouldn't have been so bad that last year under Escherick, we probably would have made the tourney. He'd probably still be coaching right now.

[hoyalove4ever]

tal1286 said:

hoyalove4ever said:

"Good" is stretching it, but jaSON Williams was at least servicable.

nearly 10 ppg, 5 apg, and better than a steal per game isn't bad for a rookie point guard who's getting only 26 minutes a game.

Less than 10 ppg...second pick in the draft...typical results from a duke grad.

Evel Knievel exploits aside, he was going to be a decent NBA player, at best.

[tal1286]

hoyalove4ever said:

tal1286 said:

nearly 10 ppg, 5 apg, and better than a steal per game isn't bad for a rookie point guard who's getting only 26 minutes a game.

Less than 10 ppg...second pick in the draft...typical results from a duke grad.

Evel Knievel exploits aside, he was going to be a decent NBA player, at best.

I don't really feel like arguing this but I gotta stick up for my Bulls.

1. From what I've been told, it's generally accepted that point guards take longer to adjust to the NBA than other positions for a number of reasons.

2. Yes, he averaged only 9.8 points a game but that was better than Steve Nash, Jason Terry, and just barely less (taking minutes per game into account) than Jason Kidd in those star point guards rookie seasons.

3. Williams really only had 2 bad months. If you look at the splits, he was probably averaging around 11-12 ppg with the exception of two bad months, january and march when he struggled, as rookies tend to do.

Maybe I'm a homer, but I think Williams would have been a very good pro in Chicago.