seaweed
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Post by seaweed on Nov 27, 2023 18:27:00 GMT -5
Rebounding thoughts only -
Brumbaugh is one of our better rebounding guards, so him out hurt us more than you might think
Cook suffers when we don’t have good rebounding guards getting position. He gets swarmed and cannot use his strength amidst all the busy bees coming for him, poking and scraping. Since this is no longer a foul apparently, his numbers will suffer when he gets ganged up on, quite naturally.
Ryan will play better against bigger centers, guys like him who are relatively less mobile than the 6’9” centers we’ve been facing. Bear in mind that this team was built for the BEast, where there are not a ton of back to the basket 7footers, but those are the guys Ryan is best suited to defending.
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dense
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Post by dense on Nov 27, 2023 19:50:05 GMT -5
I think Cook next year will start until Sorber is ready to take over, so to say he is a big part is all based on perspective How about a highly coveted 4/5 NIL grad transfer to let Fielder and Sorber play but have experience at the position. I think this is far more likely then Cook starting next year. And no, I don't have anyone in particular in mind. Maybe but I think Cooley is big on setting his culture right now. Cook does seem to fit into that. I dont see him going from 30+ minutes to 10-15.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Nov 27, 2023 19:55:49 GMT -5
It's amazing how little this board understands about the numbers that get regurgitated from KenPom. So -- why do you think Cook's DR% numbers are down compared to previous years? What could be the cause of that through the first six games - or through an entire season? I think there's a couple of structural elements. The scheme leaves him along often, down low, and he's contesting shots too eagerly, leading to him being out of position on the rebound. There's not a lot of help blocking out in those situations where he doesn't, either. The switching also keeps him out of good position at times, and I suspect he was camped at Fairfield in the middle, and also assisted a bit. From the Cook side of things, I wonder how much of his teams were team generated. Defensive rebounding is much more of a team than individually generated -- and he probably got a bunch of discretionary rebounds last year (i.e., only him and his teammates around but they would defer to him) that aren't happening this year. I've noticed he doesn't have great hands for it. I don't expect 15% to last; that's terrible. But I don't expect anywhere near 24% because I don't think the scheme is changing. The teammates will get better, and maybe he can do a better job of judging when to contest, and maybe a better job fighting -- we won't always be coming off a terrible rebounding night. But I don't think people should expect Cook to suddenly turn it on.
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thedragon
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Post by thedragon on Nov 27, 2023 21:38:06 GMT -5
How about a highly coveted 4/5 NIL grad transfer to let Fielder and Sorber play but have experience at the position. I think this is far more likely then Cook starting next year. And no, I don't have anyone in particular in mind. Maybe but I think Cooley is big on setting his culture right now. Cook does seem to fit into that. I dont see him going from 30+ minutes to 10-15. Agree to disagree. I think if things go to plan Cook being a 10-15 minute guy is the most likely scenario. People seem to forget that one of the reasons Cooley came to Georgetown was reports of a significant NIL commitment. And they didn't spend a ton this past offseason. With a season under their belts to get their feet planted I think it more likely than not that you see the staff go after 2 to 3 high NIL dollar starter level upperclassmen ("to get old" as a roster as Cooley likes to say). For example, and Im just using them as an easy exercise, but let's say Devin Carter and Bryce Hopkins were Seniors and looking to grad transfer. And each wanted 1M in NIL. Epps Carter Styles Hopkins Sorber Brumbaugh Bristol Fielder Cook McKenna Mulready Williams Mutombo Is that a top 25 team? Probably. You could start Hopkins at Center If youd prefer and Fielder at the 4. Maybe Cook does start initially next to Hopkins. But you don't block Sorber or Fielder if either are ready. The point is multiple starters on this year's team will be in a lesser role next year if the rebuilding plan goes according to plan. And I'd guess a big guard and a hybrid 4/5 man will be the focus (thus why Carter and Hopkins were easy examples).
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dense
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Post by dense on Nov 27, 2023 21:54:06 GMT -5
Maybe but I think Cooley is big on setting his culture right now. Cook does seem to fit into that. I dont see him going from 30+ minutes to 10-15. Agree to disagree. I think if things go to plan Cook being a 10-15 minute guy is the most likely scenario. People seem to forget that one of the reasons Cooley came to Georgetown was reports of a significant NIL commitment. And they didn't spend a ton this past offseason. With a season under their belts to get their feet planted I think it more likely than not that you see the staff go after 2 to 3 high NIL dollar starter level upperclassmen ("to get old" as a roster as Cooley likes to say). For example, and Im just using them as an easy exercise, but let's say Devin Carter and Bryce Hopkins were Seniors and looking to grad transfer. And each wanted 1M in NIL. Epps Carter Styles Hopkins Sorber Brumbaugh Bristol Fielder Cook McKenna Mulready Williams Mutombo Is that a top 25 team? Probably. You could start Hopkins at Center If youd prefer and Fielder at the 4. Maybe Cook does start initially next to Hopkins. But you don't block Sorber or Fielder if either are ready. The point is multiple starters on this year's team will be in a lesser role next year if the rebuilding plan goes according to plan. And I'd guess a big guard and a hybrid 4/5 man will be the focus (thus why Carter and Hopkins were easy examples). I think we agree. I don't think Cook will block anyone if they are ready to handle more. I'm just saying initially Cook gonna log minutes next year because he knows the calls and what coach expects. You could see some sets where he and Sorber are playing together. I'm not saying his minutes won't be reduced. Just that it won't be right away. He'll play a lot to start next year.
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Post by dariantownesvanzandt on Nov 27, 2023 22:52:54 GMT -5
But the other part is -- for the love of god, please stop pumping this board full of individual KenPom stats as conclusive proof of anything. To be clear, defensive rebounding rate is not a crazy stat, nor is it unique to KenPom. Other sites calculate the same thing. It means, of all the defensive rebounds you COULD get, how many do you get? This isn't rocket science. It's basic stat that shows how many rebounds you get. And yes, the fact that Cook, at 15% is lower than any big Georgetown has ever had playing at center, by a big margin, is conclusive proof that he is getting a very low percentage of rebounds. This is really just adding up rebounds compared to the amount he coudl get. It's not rocket science. By way of example: I get 1 rebound out of 10 opportunities to get it. My defensive rebound rate is 10%. (For those interested, the cutoff for top 100 among players playing 40% of available minutes is a DR rate of about 23%.) Last year, Cook was actually ranked 83rd nationally, which is quite good. He's just fallen off a lot this year. Thanks for the lesson. The interns thought that was pretty funny. I never said Cook was doing well, and I'm really not sure how it's going to work when we get to Big East play. He's not a real center - he plays more like a 4 that would match well with a talented offensive big like Jessie or Omer. This is about what we can find in the data that suggests more than simply "15% = he's not playing/rebounding well" or "what happened to 23%?" If you agree the four points I listed are factors (you should), then where are we? -- Right now he's at 15% (26/173) -- When the team gives up 37 offensive rebounds to Holy Cross & Jackson State and you are not the primary cause (his men only grabbed 5 combined), your numbers take a hit. Take away 10 of those offensive rebound possessions his teammates gave up vs. HC & JSU while he was on the floor and you're up to 16% (26 out of 163) -- Give him 4 of the rebounds that he "could have" had when he was playing PF instead of C (ie. Fielder or Mutombo got it). Now you're at 30/163... 18.4%! So he could be around 18-19% pretty easily right now w/o actually playing any better. Add new scheme implications, comfort level, fatigue, and if he does genuinely play better...? I see his warts. He's small-ish. He's rough on the line. He's not much of a threat on the offensive end. He's made a couple of highly visible mistakes. But a lot of this smells like "we're bad on the defensive glass... look at Cook's numbers... Cook needs to be better." It's more than that. BTW -- Donovan Clingan (16.4 DR%), Oso Igodaro (15.1 DR%), Eric Dixon (who had never been above 16.5% before this year, 20% this year), and Ryan Kalkbrenner (12.4%) are the starting centers for the 4 best teams in the Big East.
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Post by madmike on Nov 27, 2023 23:21:36 GMT -5
I’m sure this has been said before today in one form or another but the difference in watching this year - regardless of the competition - to me is I say to myself we can figure out a way to win this game instead of how are we going to blow this one. Well said sir
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hoyasaxa2003
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Nov 27, 2023 23:42:35 GMT -5
To be clear, defensive rebounding rate is not a crazy stat, nor is it unique to KenPom. Other sites calculate the same thing. It means, of all the defensive rebounds you COULD get, how many do you get? This isn't rocket science. It's basic stat that shows how many rebounds you get. And yes, the fact that Cook, at 15% is lower than any big Georgetown has ever had playing at center, by a big margin, is conclusive proof that he is getting a very low percentage of rebounds. This is really just adding up rebounds compared to the amount he coudl get. It's not rocket science. By way of example: I get 1 rebound out of 10 opportunities to get it. My defensive rebound rate is 10%. (For those interested, the cutoff for top 100 among players playing 40% of available minutes is a DR rate of about 23%.) Last year, Cook was actually ranked 83rd nationally, which is quite good. He's just fallen off a lot this year. Thanks for the lesson. The interns thought that was pretty funny. I never said Cook was doing well, and I'm really not sure how it's going to work when we get to Big East play. He's not a real center - he plays more like a 4 that would match well with a talented offensive big like Jessie or Omer. This is about what we can find in the data that suggests more than simply "15% = he's not playing/rebounding well" or "what happened to 23%?" If you agree the four points I listed are factors (you should), then where are we? -- Right now he's at 15% (26/173) -- When the team gives up 37 offensive rebounds to Holy Cross & Jackson State and you are not the primary cause (his men only grabbed 5 combined), your numbers take a hit. Take away 10 of those offensive rebound possessions his teammates gave up vs. HC & JSU while he was on the floor and you're up to 16% (26 out of 163) -- Give him 4 of the rebounds that he "could have" had when he was playing PF instead of C (ie. Fielder or Mutombo got it). Now you're at 30/163... 18.4%! So he could be around 18-19% pretty easily right now w/o actually playing any better. Add new scheme implications, comfort level, fatigue, and if he does genuinely play better...? I see his warts. He's small-ish. He's rough on the line. He's not much of a threat on the offensive end. He's made a couple of highly visible mistakes. But a lot of this smells like "we're bad on the defensive glass... look at Cook's numbers... Cook needs to be better." It's more than that. BTW -- Donovan Clingan (16.4 DR%), Oso Igodaro (15.1 DR%), Eric Dixon (who had never been above 16.5% before this year, 20% this year), and Ryan Kalkbrenner (12.4%) are the starting centers for the 4 best teams in the Big East. I am pretty sure you are using fuzzy math. I am not sure where you are getting your numbers from, but you can only include possessions where Cook plays. Obviously, he cannot get rebounds when he's not in the lineup. As for Kalkbrenner, he's a significantly different type of player than Cook. He's a threat from the perimeter/3 point range, and so he spends more time away from the basket than Cook. Also Creighton has Baylor Scheierman who is a very good defensive rebounder (20.9) and for being 6'4, Trey Alexander is way above average (18.5%). If we had other guys who could rebound, Cook wouldn't need to get as many. But other than Fielder, nobody on our team has rebounded well on the defensive end so far.
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DanMcQ
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Post by DanMcQ on Nov 28, 2023 6:32:39 GMT -5
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Post by professorhoya on Nov 29, 2023 0:26:29 GMT -5
The last time I felt so confident in a player’s off the dribble scoring ability and outside shooting as I do with Epps was DSR. But he’s more agile/faster. Would be amazing if he developed the same ability to take contact. Someone pointed out Styles has some Otto in his game and I think that’s right. He needs to become defensively and rebounding position wise more aware. That was a huge value that Otto provided. And he’d need to have the take over the game down the stretch ability like Otto. But there’s not a lot of wasted effort, generally takes good shots, makes smart offensive plays, and has a nice close-in mid-range game. Really thought Cook would be better after Le Moyne. I know that was an unusually poor opponent, but thought his physicality and effort would continue. Seems to cost us defensively inside and with rebounding. And not offer much offensively. Really want to like the kid. But he hasn’t shown much since that game. Exacerbating it is that Mutombo apparently is so poor he can’t get more than 2 minutes in a game that we are short handed and need size, defense, rebounding. I just don’t get it. What has he done for 3 years? I’ve never seen a 7 footer at Georgetown be so unuseful. Our guards need to help with rebounding and collapse down, given our limitations. They just stay out at the 3 and their guys in this game were collapsing, getting ORebounds. Late in the game, there were a few times 3 guys would go for a block and leave the rebound wide open or they anticipated the layup going in and didn’t react til too late to the rebound. Just need a lot more want-to for rebounds from the whole team. Lastly, not good to only get 1 point from 33 minutes of bench time across 3 subs. I know we’re short handed but that’s exactly it - we need our 4-star big to get more than a late free throw and Bacote to at least force the defense to guard him once in a while. That said, the overall shooting percentage and scoring is hard to argue with when Epps and Styles are so efficient. Didn’t feel like a lot of bad shots either. Maybe not easy shots but ones in their bag. Guess the team will ride them this year. Agree with others that I’m curious what the team with Massoud and a healthy Heath can look like. Not typical Cooley defense/rebounding but should be able to score plenty. If we can get a starting caliber transfer center to pair with the recruits coming in next year, this team has some great pieces toward the rebuild. I actually think Styles reminds me a little more of Dajuan Summers. I can see the Otto comp as well, but Otto was such a unique player that it's hard to find a true comparison. I actually had the same Dujuan Summers comp except I think Styles handles and drive is better and his 3pt shot seems more consistent.
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Post by professorhoya on Nov 29, 2023 0:35:41 GMT -5
I share the sentiment of many on this board in that this was a hard-fought win against an inferior opponent that we would have definitely lost the last couple of years. The way this season looks, you have to take those victories. It's also very refreshing to see adjustments and improvements from one game to the next, even if they're very basic/subtle, as well as accountability and acknowledgment of our areas to improve upon by the coaching staff. I was disheartened after Holy Cross but absolutely loved pulling out these last 2 close wins. Some roster thoughts: Epps - Can be frustrating at times, but has so much talent. His performance over the last 2 games was pretty unbelievable, and he's shown to be more DSR than Primo Spears, which is relieving. Rowan - Love his game, and most excited that he's a freshman. I think it's very crucial that Rowan stays with the program and doesn't transfer elsewhere. He could use some toughness/edge/oomph, but he is very controlled and a true floor general. I love watching him go through a pick n roll, get the defender on his butt, and make the big either commit to him or to the rolling man. It's been a while since we've seen a PG do this effectively. Styles - Our best player right now. Has a little bit of Dajuan Summers, P Ewing Jr, and Otto in his game. It's a commodity to have a player that can hit spot-up corner 3's, pin someone's layup attempt against the backboard, and hit a mid-range pull-up off the dribble, all in the same game. Fielder - Will likely benefit the most from a full season in the Big East. Like Rowan, I think it's crucial that Fielder stays with this program and develops. I see a lot of Nate Lubick in terms of fit, playing time, impact, longevity, etc., but Fielder is a LOT more skilled and has a chance to be a much better player. There will be some rough games this year, though... Heath - Credit to him for pushing through against Jackson St. He was clearly in a lot of pain, and still had a very well-rounded game. Hopefully he can get fully healthy. He'll be an X-factor in a lot of games. Bristol - One of my favorite developments from this early season. He's been all over the place and is usually the quickest to dive on a loose ball. He knows his role and does it well. Cook - Can't really figure him out yet. We've seen some highs and lows, and I think it will be rough in conference play. Epps and Spears are completely different players because the 3pt is Epps’ range and he has good form whereas Primo was not comfortable shooting the 3 as it was out of his range. Primo had a good mid range but that was about it and he would hesitate shooting the 3 even if open. This made Primo easier to guard because you could give him the long 2 and just guard his drive or converge on him with multiple players as McDermott did. With Epps he’s much more difficult to defend because he can hit the wide open 3 if you play off him but if you guard him tight he can blow by you.
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