2022-23 Season Discussion

[bluegray79]

We're 28 days and counting to our first game.  If it's too early, LMK and I'll take it down.  

[hibernatinghoyafan]

Can we move this to the main board? Don’t want it lost on recruiting. Stoked for this year, have a really good feeling.

[bluegray79]

My bad -- hadn't realized. Thanks.

[bluegray79]

Wait -- isn't it on the main board now? Confused.

[bluegray79]

O.K., I'm going to kick this off.

I was reading posts under "current state of our Hoya bball program". DFW Hoya asks a bunch of interesting questions that got me going. I'm not going to answer them, but I do want to share this:

We can probably all agree that our program and team are not in an ideal place. There's much to do in several areas. It's been in need of real changes, one could argue, for a while, even well before Coach Ewing took the reins. One could also argue that some of those areas in need of change have worsened since he arrived and over these past 5 years. I can't speak with real authority and satisfaction to the systemic nature of the problems of the program (getting out from under Big John's shadow, what Ronny's role is, our relationship with the media, giving a coach who went 6-25 overall and 0-21 in the BE a very generous contract extension, how Jack DiGioia and the Board view all of this and make their decisions, loss of stature in the basketball world, fan attrition, etc. etc.). They are important and worthy rabbit holes to go down -- and we have been hacking away at them plenty for 7-8 months - but we are 27 days away from the opening game, and I want to set my sights on this team and enjoying what promises to be an entertaining and fun season. Staying stuck on all of that -- and, again, it's important stuff -- just makes me sour and unhappy. Let's check back with each other about it all in late March.

DFW asked "what's the source of optimism? Is there one?" I'm by nature an optimist, and I scream in response, "YES!" All I'm doing in approaching this season is comparing the players and coaches that walked off the floor at Hinkle against Colorado in Round 1 to the players and coaches that will walk onto the floor at the COA on Nov. 8. We can moan and groan about all sorts of things and how they happened -- and we have (see above). Yet, when I look at the changes in player talent & ability, when I see new energy among the coaches and players, when I see a somewhat improved media presence, and when I feel a good vibe about the team and the energy (very subjective, yes, but heads and shoulders above what I was picking up last year this time), I think I have solid justification for feeling optimistic. Maybe it all didn't happen as well as it does in other programs, but if you remember what we were all griping and sniping about last March and since, they have made significant steps in the right direction. I know lots of you hate to hear PE say it, but it is a work in progress, and if they keep stepping in the right direction, I'm in.

So, right now, Oct. 10th, 3:15 p.m., I am pumped to watch this team -- come on! Tell me you aren't psyched to see BMurray and Primo do their thing, to watch Dante H scrap and bring it all, see Akok above the rim on both ends, Eweziro fired up, Anglin's sweet shooting, Jay Heath with all his experience, Qudus with something to prove, Mozone & Bass & Bristol & Riley find their place and contribute! I've been saying it all along, and I'll say it here again: we are going to be an energetic, athletic, fun team to watch. We will win our fair share of games & we will knock off a couple of the top dogs along the way. We will surprise people, and we will be in position to get to the Dance come February.

Hope to see all of you at the games. Looking forward to checking in with you here during the course of the season. Let's get behind our boys and enjoy some Hoya basketball again! Hoya Saxa -- let's GO!!!

[kghoya]

Oct 10, 2022 14:27:23 GMT -5 bluegray79 said:

O.K., I'm going to kick this off.

I was reading posts under "current state of our Hoya bball program". DFW Hoya asks a bunch of interesting questions that got me going. I'm not going to answer them, but I do want to share this:

We can probably all agree that our program and team are not in an ideal place. There's much to do in several areas. It's been in need of real changes, one could argue, for a while, even well before Coach Ewing took the reins. One could also argue that some of those areas in need of change have worsened since he arrived and over these past 5 years. I can't speak with real authority and satisfaction to the systemic nature of the problems of the program (getting out from under Big John's shadow, what Ronny's role is, our relationship with the media, giving a coach who went 6-25 overall and 0-21 in the BE a very generous contract extension, how Jack DiGioia and the Board view all of this and make their decisions, loss of stature in the basketball world, fan attrition, etc. etc.). They are important and worthy rabbit holes to go down -- and we have been hacking away at them plenty for 7-8 months - but we are 27 days away from the opening game, and I want to set my sights on this team and enjoying what promises to be an entertaining and fun season. Staying stuck on all of that -- and, again, it's important stuff -- just makes me sour and unhappy. Let's check back with each other about it all in late March.

DFW asked "what's the source of optimism? Is there one?" I'm by nature an optimist, and I scream in response, "YES!" All I'm doing in approaching this season is comparing the players and coaches that walked off the floor at Hinkle against Colorado in Round 1 to the players and coaches that will walk onto the floor at the COA on Nov. 8. We can moan and groan about all sorts of things and how they happened -- and we have (see above). Yet, when I look at the changes in player talent & ability, when I see new energy among the coaches and players, when I see a somewhat improved media presence, and when I feel a good vibe about the team and the energy (very subjective, yes, but heads and shoulders above what I was picking up last year this time), I think I have solid justification for feeling optimistic. Maybe it all didn't happen as well as it does in other programs, but if you remember what we were all griping and sniping about last March and since, they have made significant steps in the right direction. I know lots of you hate to hear PE say it, but it is a work in progress, and if keep stepping in the right direction, I'm in.

So, right now, Oct. 10th, 3:15 p.m., I am pumped to watch this team -- come on! Tell me you aren't psyched to see BMurray and Primo do their thing, to watch Dante H scrap and bring it all, see Akok above the rim on both ends, Eweziro fired up, Anglin's sweet shooting, Jay Heath with all his experience, Qudus with something to prove, Mozone & Bass & Bristol & Riley find their place and contribute! I've been saying it all along, and I'll say it here again: we are going to be an energetic, athletic, fun team to watch. We will win ur fair share of games & we will knock off a couple of the top dogs along the way. We will surprise people, and we will be in position to get to the Dance come February.

Hope to see all of you at the games. Looking forward to checking in with you here during the course of the season. Let's get behind our boys and enjoy some Hoya basketball again! Hoya Saxa -- let's GO!!!

I don't think the talent has increased to a level high enough to overcome below average coaching.

[bluegray79]

I agree with that as a general concept, but how do you know what level the new coaching team is at? That's the thing I'll be looking really closely at because PE and the other folks behind the scene at the TAC were given what seems like carte blanche to go out and put this thing together so as not to repeat last year. I get the feeling that returning to past glory is the ultimate goal, and if real evidence is not there that the program is moving in that direction in a real way, you have to think that wholesale changes will follow.

The players are there -- it really is up to the coaches to put it together and win. Just hard to say from here how they're doing so far.

[hoya9797]

Oct 10, 2022 18:09:14 GMT -5 bluegray79 said:

I agree with that as a general concept, but how do you know what level the new coaching team is at? That's the thing I'll be looking really closely at because PE and the other folks behind the scene at the TAC were given what seems like carte blanche to go out and put this thing together so as not to repeat last year. I get the feeling that returning to past glory is the ultimate goal, and if real evidence is not there that the program is moving in that direction in a real way, you have to think that wholesale changes will follow.

The players are there -- it really is up to the coaches to put it together and win. Just hard to say from here how they're doing so far.

The head coach is the worst coach in the country and the assistants don’t exactly have sterling records themselves. Odds are very strong the coaching will continue to be horrible.

[hoyasaxa2003]

Oct 10, 2022 18:09:14 GMT -5 bluegray79 said:

I agree with that as a general concept, but how do you know what level the new coaching team is at? That's the thing I'll be looking really closely at because PE and the other folks behind the scene at the TAC were given what seems like carte blanche to go out and put this thing together so as not to repeat last year. I get the feeling that returning to past glory is the ultimate goal, and if real evidence is not there that the program is moving in that direction in a real way, you have to think that wholesale changes will follow.

The players are there -- it really is up to the coaches to put it together and win. Just hard to say from here how they're doing so far.

The problem is the coaching really isn't different or impactful other than Nickelberry, as far as I can tell. Coach Crouch was a coach on last year's team, he basically swaps with Orr on the recruiting front. But they will both remain. Nickelberry is obviously new and can recruit, but can he coach a competent defense? Even if he can, will Ewing let him? And what does Baldwin bring to the party?

Those focusing on coaching change are really asking, "Does the addition of Nickelberry and Baldwin to the coach staff (and removal of Kirby/Waheed) move the ball?" Clearly, Nickeberry was a great addition for recruiting, but it remains to be seen whether that will manifest on the Court. I have zero confidence Ewing himself will do anything differently as far as the x's and o's go, as he hasn't changed his approach after 5 well-below-average seasons. Can he and the new staff members coach a good defense (or even competent one)? I realize this sounds pessimistic but I think it's also realistic, too.

The flip side of my pessimism is that last year was so bad, that Ewing doesn't have to do much to improve. I do think this team will be better; it's just unclear how much better.

[kghoya]

Oct 10, 2022 20:28:14 GMT -5 hoyasaxa2003 said:

Oct 10, 2022 18:09:14 GMT -5 bluegray79 said:

I agree with that as a general concept, but how do you know what level the new coaching team is at? That's the thing I'll be looking really closely at because PE and the other folks behind the scene at the TAC were given what seems like carte blanche to go out and put this thing together so as not to repeat last year. I get the feeling that returning to past glory is the ultimate goal, and if real evidence is not there that the program is moving in that direction in a real way, you have to think that wholesale changes will follow.

The players are there -- it really is up to the coaches to put it together and win. Just hard to say from here how they're doing so far.

The problem is the coaching really isn't different or impactful other than Nickelberry, as far as I can tell. Coach Crouch was a coach on last year's team, he basically swaps with Orr on the recruiting front. But they will both remain. Nickelberry is obviously new and can recruit, but can he coach a competent defense? Even if he can, will Ewing let him? And what does Baldwin bring to the party?

Those focusing on coaching change are really asking, "Does the addition of Nickelberry and Baldwin to the coach staff (and removal of Kirby/Waheed) move the ball?" Clearly, Nickeberry was a great addition for recruiting, but it remains to be seen whether that will manifest on the Court. I have zero confidence Ewing himself will do anything differently as far as the x's and o's go, as he hasn't changed his approach after 5 well-below-average seasons. Can he and the new staff members coach a good defense (or even competent one)? I realize this sounds pessimistic but I think it's also realistic, too.

The flip side of my pessimism is that last year was so bad, that Ewing doesn't have to do much to improve. I do think this team will be better; it's just unclear how much better.

Everything we've heard from Ewing in the off-season suggests he thinks all of the problems were talent related.

He got new assistants for recruiting purposes, not to help him learn when to use timeouts or how to slow down opposing offenses.

[hoyasaxa2003]

Oct 10, 2022 20:40:33 GMT -5 kghoya said:

Oct 10, 2022 20:28:14 GMT -5 hoyasaxa2003 said:

The problem is the coaching really isn't different or impactful other than Nickelberry, as far as I can tell. Coach Crouch was a coach on last year's team, he basically swaps with Orr on the recruiting front. But they will both remain. Nickelberry is obviously new and can recruit, but can he coach a competent defense? Even if he can, will Ewing let him? And what does Baldwin bring to the party?

Those focusing on coaching change are really asking, "Does the addition of Nickelberry and Baldwin to the coach staff (and removal of Kirby/Waheed) move the ball?" Clearly, Nickeberry was a great addition for recruiting, but it remains to be seen whether that will manifest on the Court. I have zero confidence Ewing himself will do anything differently as far as the x's and o's go, as he hasn't changed his approach after 5 well-below-average seasons. Can he and the new staff members coach a good defense (or even competent one)? I realize this sounds pessimistic but I think it's also realistic, too.

The flip side of my pessimism is that last year was so bad, that Ewing doesn't have to do much to improve. I do think this team will be better; it's just unclear how much better.

Everything we've heard from Ewing in the off-season suggests he thinks all of the problems were talent related.

He got new assistants for recruiting purposes, not to help him learn when to use timeouts or how to slow down opposing offenses.

And if that's true, we aren't going to be much better than we have been over the last 5 years. Talent can get more wins, but not a consistently winning team, if that makes any sense. We have a lot of guys who have never played together before this summer. There is a lot to do. I really do hope it comes together. Another season like last year would be brutal. It'd be nice to have more to be excited about.

[aleutianhoya]

There's an old saying that "Jimmies and Joes beat Xs and Os" meaning that talent trumps strategy or, in this context, that talent trumps coaching.

And I deeply believe that it is true far more often than it isn't. The vast majority of the time, the team that has more of the top players wins the game. Sure, if one team is better in the post and the other is better from deep, strategy and in-game dynamics can have a significant effect. So, too, can the coach opting to play the wrong players the most minutes or at the wrong times. It's not perfect. But, I still think it's generally true.

If our players are significantly more talented this year, we will be significantly better.

Well, are they? It seems like they may be. But we won't know for 6-8 weeks.

[Bigs"R"Us]

We have better individual players this year, we have college-level stats to back that up. The question is how good can they play as a unit and the coach’s impact. Nickelberry gets an A, Ewing gets a TBD.

[hoyasaxa2003]

Oct 11, 2022 9:42:32 GMT -5 aleutianhoya said:

There's an old saying that "Jimmies and Joes beat Xs and Os" meaning that talent trumps strategy or, in this context, that talent trumps coaching.

And I deeply believe that it is true far more often than it isn't. The vast majority of the time, the team that has more of the top players wins the game. Sure, if one team is better in the post and the other is better from deep, strategy and in-game dynamics can have a significant effect. So, too, can the coach opting to play the wrong players the most minutes or at the wrong times. It's not perfect. But, I still think it's generally true.

If our players are significantly more talented this year, we will be significantly better.

Well, are they? It seems like they may be. But we won't know for 6-8 weeks.

I think you are right, to an extent. I also agree that Georgetown is more talented than last year, and should win more games as a result. But, in a team sport like basketball, especially where both sides of the ball rely heavily on strategy and coordinaton, the way a team plays together (i.e., strategy and coaching) truly makes a crucial difference. In that respect, the program has largely been a failure, and needs to turn it around.

For what it's worth, I do not think that Georgetown's "talent" last year was a 0 win team. I think better coaching and better defense would have easily won a few games. As I've said before, college basketball is littered with coaches that can attract talent and recruit - like Pastner at Memphis - who cannot get that talent to gel and yield significant success. Of course, a Pastnert-type result at Georgetown would be a massive improvement, though.

While the talent last year was weak, I am not sure it's as weak as people think it was. No doubt, talent at center is way better with Wahab over Ighoefe. After that Murray slots in for Aminu. The hope is Murray will be better than Aminu. We lost a really good shooter in Carey, the hope is Anglin/Heath/Bristol/Spears can fill those roles. Harris is Harris. Akok, I do consider a considerable upgrade. So is our talent better, absolutely. If that talent was coached by someone who could teach good defense, could we be a tournament team? Very possible. Can this coaching staff do that? I am skeptical given past results.

[calhoya]

Oct 11, 2022 11:08:38 GMT -5 hoyasaxa2003 said:

Oct 11, 2022 9:42:32 GMT -5 aleutianhoya said:

There's an old saying that "Jimmies and Joes beat Xs and Os" meaning that talent trumps strategy or, in this context, that talent trumps coaching.

And I deeply believe that it is true far more often than it isn't. The vast majority of the time, the team that has more of the top players wins the game. Sure, if one team is better in the post and the other is better from deep, strategy and in-game dynamics can have a significant effect. So, too, can the coach opting to play the wrong players the most minutes or at the wrong times. It's not perfect. But, I still think it's generally true.

If our players are significantly more talented this year, we will be significantly better.

Well, are they? It seems like they may be. But we won't know for 6-8 weeks.

I think you are right, to an extent. I also agree that Georgetown is more talented than last year, and should win more games as a result. But, in a team sport like basketball, especially where both sides of the ball rely heavily on strategy and coordinaton, the way a team plays together (i.e., strategy and coaching) truly makes a crucial difference. In that respect, the program has largely been a failure, and needs to turn it around.

For what it's worth, I do not think that Georgetown's "talent" last year was a 0 win team. I think better coaching and better defense would have easily won a few games. As I've said before, college basketball is littered with coaches that can attract talent and recruit - like Pastner at Memphis - who cannot get that talent to gel and yield significant success. Of course, a Pastnert-type result at Georgetown would be a massive improvement, though.

While the talent last year was weak, I am not sure it's as weak as people think it was. No doubt, talent at center is way better with Wahab over Ighoefe. After that Murray slots in for Aminu. The hope is Murray will be better than Aminu. We lost a really good shooter in Carey, the hope is Anglin/Heath/Bristol/Spears can fill those roles. Harris is Harris. Akok, I do consider a considerable upgrade. So is our talent better, absolutely. If that talent was coached by someone who could teach good defense, could we be a tournament team? Very possible. Can this coaching staff do that? I am skeptical given past results.

Amen to this. Maybe the team did not live up to its No. 16 ranking for incoming recruits, but at least some of that had to do with the failure to develop players, adapt the offense and defense to their strengths and the inability to create a group that complemented each other. Some control over the manner in which Aminu and Dante dominated the ball, or the failure to sit Rice when his shots were not falling and rushed or the inability to develop credible post play might have made a difference. As always I am rooting FOR the current coaching staff and hoping that fortunes change, but I hate the mantra that the team lacked talent last year. Besides when talent is misjudged or not developed that is not really the players' fault.

[EtomicB]

Oct 11, 2022 9:42:32 GMT -5 aleutianhoya said:

There's an old saying that "Jimmies and Joes beat Xs and Os" meaning that talent trumps strategy or, in this context, that talent trumps coaching.

And I deeply believe that it is true far more often than it isn't. The vast majority of the time, the team that has more of the top players wins the game. Sure, if one team is better in the post and the other is better from deep, strategy and in-game dynamics can have a significant effect. So, too, can the coach opting to play the wrong players the most minutes or at the wrong times. It's not perfect. But, I still think it's generally true.

If our players are significantly more talented this year, we will be significantly better.

Well, are they? It seems like they may be. But we won't know for 6-8 weeks.

To me the job of a coaching staff is to get the most out of the group it has first & foremost…

That didn’t happen last season, we all know Gtown had more talent than Dartmouth or St. Joes and shouldn’t have been 6 games behind Butler and DePaul…

Using the Lack of talent reasoning deflects away from the plans & schemes the staff uses in my view…

[bluegray79]

You're right -- memories of head-scratching coaching come flooding back. Playing Rice when he went cold hurt a lot and in several games. He wasn't scoring and his defense wasn't strong. Compare that to Jalen. Now one is a senior and the other a frosh, but I'm not sure how you develop a Billingsley if he sits after one mistake lots of times. Loyalty (or whatever) to Dante hurt at times, too, and because of the way he plays, had him playing hurt the last third of the season. Beard had a flash or 2 of what they must have seen in him. Hard to say after his transfer.

All of that makes me hope for 2 things: I like to hope that Coaches Nick, Crouch and Baldwin can have a better influence on PE.  On what do I base that hope? Pixie dust, rainbows, and crossing my fingers, but who knows? That's what these weeks & months right now are for: to see who fits best where and what combos work best. Nickleberry should at least understand that with NIL and the transfer portal, etc., developing players is a different thing now (see comment from '24 recruit about the coaches planning on him being a one-and-done.) So rotate that talent and those rested legs out there and play high energy, high intensity basketball.

My main coaching hope is an all-out emphasis on defense. It would seem that we are poised to be better in the paint and we have the quickness to defend the perimeter. If we do that 50% better and are bringing it every game, I think we will be tough.

[rhw485]

Oct 11, 2022 12:59:15 GMT -5 EtomicB said:

Oct 11, 2022 9:42:32 GMT -5 aleutianhoya said:

There's an old saying that "Jimmies and Joes beat Xs and Os" meaning that talent trumps strategy or, in this context, that talent trumps coaching.

And I deeply believe that it is true far more often than it isn't. The vast majority of the time, the team that has more of the top players wins the game. Sure, if one team is better in the post and the other is better from deep, strategy and in-game dynamics can have a significant effect. So, too, can the coach opting to play the wrong players the most minutes or at the wrong times. It's not perfect. But, I still think it's generally true.

If our players are significantly more talented this year, we will be significantly better.

Well, are they? It seems like they may be. But we won't know for 6-8 weeks.

To me the job of a coaching staff is to get the most out of the group it has first & foremost…

That didn’t happen last season, we all know Gtown had more talent than Dartmouth or St. Joes and shouldn’t have been 6 games behind Butler and DePaul…

Using the Lack of talent reasoning deflects away from the plans & schemes the staff uses in my view…

Isn't it pretty obvious the answer is that both can be true?  Clearly there was a lack of talent last year.  Of all our departures, only Carey moved to another power conference (w Aminu going pro).  And clearly there's no excuse for going 0-20.  Now should that have been 4-16 and probably still last place?  That's probably right for the talent level I saw.  

And for the record I thought Ewing should've been fired.  But he wasn't....and everything after that decision probably went like an 8 or 9 out of 10 in terms of best case scenarios?  Plenty of the board (myself included) speculated that we wouldn't be able to get decent assistants or players to commit to what felt like a lame duck season for Ewing.  I honestly feel like this board would be more excited if we got the waterboy for Chris Beard without knowing the coach's name.  I have no idea how we're assessing assistant coaches with such confidence, and the fact we made changes has to be a positive, however small it may be.

On the roster front, we've landed multiple players (Murray, Heath, Wahab) who have already shown they can play at the power conference level.  Akok feels like the make or break for the roster.  If he can be a plausible power forward for spacing and anchor small ball center lineups we'll have legitimate roster flexibility that we haven't seen in a while.  And he's also just a massive injury risk so who knows.

Where does that leave us going into the season?  More questions than answers, agree with all the comments around defensive coaching (while everyone dismisses Nickelberry as a basketball coach and ignores LSU's defense last year), but the range of outcomes for this team is much higher than last year, so will consider that a step in the right direction. 

[hoyasaxa2003]

Oct 11, 2022 15:52:46 GMT -5 rhw485 said:

Oct 11, 2022 12:59:15 GMT -5 EtomicB said:

To me the job of a coaching staff is to get the most out of the group it has first & foremost…

That didn’t happen last season, we all know Gtown had more talent than Dartmouth or St. Joes and shouldn’t have been 6 games behind Butler and DePaul…

Using the Lack of talent reasoning deflects away from the plans & schemes the staff uses in my view…

Isn't it pretty obvious the answer is that both can be true?  Clearly there was a lack of talent last year.  Of all our departures, only Carey moved to another power conference (w Aminu going pro).  And clearly there's no excuse for going 0-20.  Now should that have been 4-16 and probably still last place?  That's probably right for the talent level I saw.  

And for the record I thought Ewing should've been fired.  But he wasn't....and everything after that decision probably went like an 8 or 9 out of 10 in terms of best case scenarios?  Plenty of the board (myself included) speculated that we wouldn't be able to get decent assistants or players to commit to what felt like a lame duck season for Ewing.  I honestly feel like this board would be more excited if we got the waterboy for Chris Beard without knowing the coach's name.  I have no idea how we're assessing assistant coaches with such confidence, and the fact we made changes has to be a positive, however small it may be.

On the roster front, we've landed multiple players (Murray, Heath, Wahab) who have already shown they can play at the power conference level.  Akok feels like the make or break for the roster.  If he can be a plausible power forward for spacing and anchor small ball center lineups we'll have legitimate roster flexibility that we haven't seen in a while.  And he's also just a massive injury risk so who knows.

Where does that leave us going into the season?  More questions than answers, agree with all the comments around defensive coaching (while everyone dismisses Nickelberry as a basketball coach and ignores LSU's defense last year), but the range of outcomes for this team is much higher than last year, so will consider that a step in the right direction. 

To be clear, and to avoid sounding negative, I do agree that Ewing and the coaching staff did a good job at getting players to commit, and Wahab to come back, following last season. Given the 0-20 season and all the transfers, I really thought that Ewing would struggle to put together a full scholarship roster. In that sense, hiring Nickelberry and the recruiting success that followed was a positive development. Facilitating Wahab's transfer back was also a good development. Akok was another nice piece. In that sense, I am optimistic and think we could head in the right direction if things fall into place. There are just a lot of "ifs" that will be big question marks until we see everybody out on the floor together.

The great thing about college basketball is there is almost always a way to think positively about a team going into the season. Last year, the optimism was pretty much destroyed out of the gate because of the Dartmouth loss. Hopefully this year will turn out better.

[hoya9797]

Oct 11, 2022 15:52:46 GMT -5 rhw485 said:

(while everyone dismisses Nickelberry as a basketball coach and ignores LSU's defense last year)

Nickelberry has a 12 year record as a head coach and it isn’t good. It seems like that’s what’s being ignored.