DFW HOYA
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Post by DFW HOYA on Nov 21, 2023 23:13:56 GMT -5
Greg Swaim is just spitballing here but there are some kernels of truth mixed in with a big heaping bowl of speculation.
Yes, there are two schools that want out and soon: Florida State and Clemson. There will eventually be some effort to break the grant of rights and effectuate some sort of settlement, e.g. $100 million per school if the networks buy into it. Remember why the ACC was quick to take SMU, Stanford and Cal--the its ESPN agreement requires a minimum of 15 schools to be valid, so this is a hedge against up to three schools leaving. FSU will get looks from the Big 10 and SEC. while if Clemson can't get SEC interest they are a Big 12 fallback.
Who's the third? North Carolina. The big money elements in Chapel Hill won't be waiting for Duke or NC State if an offer comes its way. But unless all three go to different conferences, three assumes an imbalance: FSU and Clemson to the SEC and Carolina to the Big 10, for example. Thus the speculation wheel begins to turn again when Virginia and/or Miami is added, because it takes the ACC under important 15 threshold unless it adds someone else in advance.
Next, Swaim and others are extrapolating, If those go, there are up to five candidates from the next-level academic and athletic schools who would jump at the Big 12; namely, non-flagship programs at NC State, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Louisville, and Pitt. None of these, with the possible exception of Pitt, would garner significant interest from the Big 10, while the SEC doesn't gain anything by taking any more non-flagship schools. Again, it's not location, it's football.
So what's left in this carved-up ACC?
Boston College California Duke Notre Dame Stanford SMU Syracuse Wake Forest
Not much football "there" there and not a good place for Syracuse to be if they want to remain relevant in football. Could or would this group add schools? UConn, possibly, but the value of the contract isn't going to be there. At that point, those schools have to decide whether then adding South Florida, Temple, Rice, Tulane, Memphis, and East Carolina is in their best interests or whether the great ACC tradition just goes the way of the Pac-12. At that point, at least two of those schools would be interested in a Big East option, probably more.
The least probable theory out there is that the Big 12 will raid the Big East for basketball content by targeting Villanova, St. John's, and Georgetown. You'll sooner see the Hoyas accepted into the Ivy League before conference games with Texas Tech, Arizona, and Utah.
All this is highly speculative, but every conference outside the Big 10, SEC, and the Ivy League are dealing from a position of weakness, because they fundamentally cannot trust their peers from jumping ship. Having learned this lesson already, I think the Big East is much more prepared and no one outside (maybe) UConn is an attractive enough candidate to jump into these shark-infested waters. Add the three big unknowns of 1) a forced labor agreement with athletes, 2) a collapse of the market for college rights fees below the P3 and 3) the selloff, breakup, or migration of ESPN off cable (the latter is more likely) and there are a lot of unknowns, which keeps conference realignment boards busy and athletic directors up at night.
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RusskyHoya
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Post by RusskyHoya on Nov 22, 2023 9:28:38 GMT -5
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RusskyHoya
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Post by RusskyHoya on Nov 25, 2023 11:32:35 GMT -5
Got really dusty in here all of a sudden
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Post by RockawayHoya on Dec 4, 2023 10:17:01 GMT -5
Think there's a good chance that yesterday will be looked back on as the day the ACC died. I know they have already been looking to jump ship, but you can bet that every single major FSU booster will be looking to help the school escape for the SEC ASAP after completely getting screwed by the CFP selection committee. And once the FSU domino falls, you can bet everyone else will be looking to avoid becoming Oregon St. / Washington St. in the latest round of musical chairs.
I know the criteria for CFP selection and I'm aware of injuries at QB, but to paraphrase Norvell... if we're picking teams based off of perceived competitiveness instead of results on the field, then why are we even playing the games? CFB is just a joke in general and yesterday was just another event that will accelerate the irreparable harm being caused to every other college sport that isn't football.
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DFW HOYA
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Post by DFW HOYA on Dec 4, 2023 10:35:21 GMT -5
The ACC is not going away soon but the line out the door is about to take shape.
Like the game of musical chairs that realignment is, the are not enough seats at the P3 to accommodate all ACC schools, and it is no sure thing where a Florida State or Clemson would end up at their desired destination if the Big 10 or SEC had other names on their draft sheet (e.g., Notre Dame, North Carolina). This leaves the future ACC as four tiers, increasingly wary of each other, and less and less valuable in the semi-professional world of the P3:
1. SEC/Big 10 Targets Florida State Clemson North Carolina Notre Dame
2. They'll Accept If Asked Miami Virginia Virginia Tech
3. Brett Yormark's "Big 12 Eastern Division" Candidates Georgia Tech Louisville NC State Pittsburgh
4. What's Left At The End Boston College Cal Duke SMU Stanford Syracuse Wake Forest
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guru
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Post by guru on Dec 4, 2023 11:08:10 GMT -5
Think there's a good chance that yesterday will be looked back on as the day the ACC died. I know they have already been looking to jump ship, but you can bet that every single major FSU booster will be looking to help the school escape for the SEC ASAP after completely getting screwed by the CFP selection committee. And once the FSU domino falls, you can bet everyone else will be looking to avoid becoming Oregon St. / Washington St. in the latest round of musical chairs. I know the criteria for CFP selection and I'm aware of injuries at QB, but to paraphrase Norvell... if we're picking teams based off of perceived competitiveness instead of results on the field, then why are we even playing the games? CFB is just a joke in general and yesterday was just another event that will accelerate the irreparable harm being caused to every other college sport that isn't football. Agree with all of the above, but won’t the expanded playoff somewhat solve a lot of the issues around the FSU snub? And sorry but I love what happened to the ACC. Serves the Big East traitors right that they left to join a conference that has essentially become the MAC. Screw all of them.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Dec 4, 2023 13:52:43 GMT -5
Think there's a good chance that yesterday will be looked back on as the day the ACC died. I know they have already been looking to jump ship, but you can bet that every single major FSU booster will be looking to help the school escape for the SEC ASAP after completely getting screwed by the CFP selection committee. And once the FSU domino falls, you can bet everyone else will be looking to avoid becoming Oregon St. / Washington St. in the latest round of musical chairs. I know the criteria for CFP selection and I'm aware of injuries at QB, but to paraphrase Norvell... if we're picking teams based off of perceived competitiveness instead of results on the field, then why are we even playing the games? CFB is just a joke in general and yesterday was just another event that will accelerate the irreparable harm being caused to every other college sport that isn't football. Agree with all of the above, but won’t the expanded playoff somewhat solve a lot of the issues around the FSU snub? And sorry but I love what happened to the ACC. Serves the Big East traitors right that they left to join a conference that has essentially become the MAC. Screw all of them. Maybe? I could certainly see some serious complaining when it gets down to who receives one of the four first round byes. It's not as drastic as making the tournament vs. being left out entirely, but you can certainly envision a scenario in the near future where an undefeated "P4" conference champion gets snubbed for a CFP bye and has to play an extra game. Good chance that the snubbed school will feel that the only way to avoid a repeat of that happening is to switch conferences.
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hoyarooter
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Post by hoyarooter on Dec 4, 2023 18:49:49 GMT -5
The ACC is not going away soon but the line out the door is about to take shape. Like the game of musical chairs that realignment is, the are not enough seats at the P3 to accommodate all ACC schools, and it is no sure thing where a Florida State or Clemson would end up at their desired destination if the Big 10 or SEC had other names on their draft sheet (e.g., Notre Dame, North Carolina). This leaves the future ACC as four tiers, increasingly wary of each other, and less and less valuable in the semi-professional world of the P3: 1. SEC/Big 10 Targets Florida State Clemson North Carolina Notre Dame 2. They'll Accept If AskedMiami Virginia Virginia Tech 3. Brett Yormark's "Big 12 Eastern Division" CandidatesGeorgia Tech Louisville NC State Pittsburgh 4. What's Left At The EndBoston College Cal Duke SMU Stanford Syracuse Wake Forest It's hard for me to imagine Duke among the leftovers here. Their football program seems to be on the rise, and hoops still have to mean something, right? They're still freaking Duke.
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njhoya78
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Post by njhoya78 on Dec 4, 2023 19:11:57 GMT -5
Here's a breakdown as to who's going where and when; updated information is indicated in bold:
2024 Arizona departs Pacific 12 Conference, and joins Big 12 Conference Arizona State departs Pacific 12 Conference, and joins Big 12 Conference Brigham Young departs West Coast Conference, and joins Big 12 Conference California departs Pacific 12 Conference, and joins Atlantic Coast Conference California Los Angeles departs Pacific 12 Conference, and joins Big Ten Conference Colorado departs Pacific 12 Conference, and joins Big 12 Conference Merrimack departs Northeast Conference, and joins Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. Oregon departs Pacific 12 Conference, and joins Big Ten Conference Sacred Heart departs Northeast Conference, and joins Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. Southern California departs Pacific 12 Conference, and joins Big Ten Conference Southern Methodist departs American Athletic Association, and joins Atlantic Coast Conference Stanford departs Pacific 12 Conference, and joins Atlantic Coast Conference Utah departs Pacific 12 Conference, and joins Big 12 Conference Washington departs Pacific 12 Conference, and joins Big Ten Conference
2025 Delaware departs Coastal Athletic Association, and joins Conference USA Oklahoma departs Big 12 Conference, and joins Southeastern Conference Texas departs Big 12 Conference, and joins Southeastern Conference
By conference:
AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE Subtracts Southern Methodist in 2024.
ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE Adds California, Stanford and Southern Methodist in 2024.
BIG 12 CONFERENCE Adds Arizona, Arizona State, Brigham Young, Colorado and Utah in 2024; subtracts Oklahoma and Texas in 2025.
BIG TEN CONFERENCE Adds California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern California and Washington in 2024.
COASTAL ATHLETIC ASSOCIATION Subtracts Delaware in 2025.
CONFERENCE USA Adds Delaware in 2025.
METRO ATLANTIC ATHLETIC CONFERENCE Adds Merrimack and Secret Heart in 2024.
NORTHEAST CONFERENCE Subtracts Merrimack and Secret Heart in 2024.
PACIFIC 12 CONFERENCE Subtracts Arizona, Arizona State, California, California Los Angeles, Colorado, Oregon, Southern California, Stanford, Utah and Washington in 2024.
SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE Adds Oklahoma and Texas in 2025.
WEST COAST CONFERENCE Subtracts Brigham Young in 2024.
CONFERENCES WITH NO UPCOMING MEMBERSHIP CHANGES Big East Conference, America East Conference, ASUN Conference, Atlantic 10 Conference, Big Sky Conference, Big South Conference, Big West Conference, Horizon League, Ivy League, Mid-American Conference, Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference, Missouri Valley Conference, Mountain West Conference, Ohio Valley Conference, Patriot League, Southern Conference, Southland Conference, Southwestern Athletic Conference, Summit League, Sun Belt Conference and Western Athletic Conference.
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DFW HOYA
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Post by DFW HOYA on Dec 4, 2023 21:17:01 GMT -5
It's hard for me to imagine Duke among the leftovers here. Their football program seems to be on the rise, and hoops still have to mean something, right? They're still freaking Duke. Realignment is all about football, and Duke has much lower value in that regard. It's why UConn isn't already in the Big 12 by now. Duke is the second smallest school in the ACC, a team which has won one ACC title since 1962, and has only sold out the second smallest stadium in the conference twice in the last five seasons (both vs. Notre Dame). No NY6 bowl since 1960. And with Mike Elko gone, more uncertainty. Excepting Notre Dame, all of the ACC private schools are at risk of being left out, including Syracuse.
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guru
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Post by guru on Dec 4, 2023 22:31:22 GMT -5
The ACC is not going away soon but the line out the door is about to take shape. Like the game of musical chairs that realignment is, the are not enough seats at the P3 to accommodate all ACC schools, and it is no sure thing where a Florida State or Clemson would end up at their desired destination if the Big 10 or SEC had other names on their draft sheet (e.g., Notre Dame, North Carolina). This leaves the future ACC as four tiers, increasingly wary of each other, and less and less valuable in the semi-professional world of the P3: 1. SEC/Big 10 Targets Florida State Clemson North Carolina Notre Dame 2. They'll Accept If AskedMiami Virginia Virginia Tech 3. Brett Yormark's "Big 12 Eastern Division" CandidatesGeorgia Tech Louisville NC State Pittsburgh 4. What's Left At The EndBoston College Cal Duke SMU Stanford Syracuse Wake Forest It's hard for me to imagine Duke among the leftovers here. Their football program seems to be on the rise, and hoops still have to mean something, right? They're still freaking Duke. I think this assumes that football is its own thing entirely. In that case Duke isn’t along for the ride, but will still be a basketball powerhouse.
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RusskyHoya
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Post by RusskyHoya on Dec 5, 2023 10:07:07 GMT -5
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hoyarooter
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Post by hoyarooter on Dec 5, 2023 20:48:48 GMT -5
It's hard for me to imagine Duke among the leftovers here. Their football program seems to be on the rise, and hoops still have to mean something, right? They're still freaking Duke. Realignment is all about football, and Duke has much lower value in that regard. It's why UConn isn't already in the Big 12 by now. Duke is the second smallest school in the ACC, a team which has won one ACC title since 1962, and has only sold out the second smallest stadium in the conference twice in the last five seasons (both vs. Notre Dame). No NY6 bowl since 1960. And with Mike Elko gone, more uncertainty. Excepting Notre Dame, all of the ACC private schools are at risk of being left out, including Syracuse. Now that would be a real shame. Not.
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SFOHoya
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Post by SFOHoya on Dec 21, 2023 14:53:12 GMT -5
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C86
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Post by C86 on Dec 21, 2023 16:42:52 GMT -5
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hoyaguy
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Post by hoyaguy on Dec 21, 2023 16:52:01 GMT -5
This is actually a really interesting storyline, I wonder what happens to the rights to the name PAC 12 after all the lawsuits. Would it be too crazy that WSU and OSU move to the Mountain West with Gonzaga (they just don’t do football) and rebrand? Or is Gonzaga just too comfortable in their situation and the MWC is cool with Wsu/osu just being involved for a sport or two? A merger of the two conferences would put them at 23 (basically full time) members with 14 for football and almost be like the new old big East lmao
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SSHoya
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Post by SSHoya on Jan 17, 2024 9:35:58 GMT -5
It’s out in the open now: The NCAA needs a reworked model for college sports and knows it. That’s why, in early December, NCAA President Charlie Baker pitched a new subdivision for schools that spend the most money on their athletic programs. And at the NCAA convention in Phoenix last week, the Division I Council set out to provide recommendations on Baker’s vision, nudging the ball forward a bit. The subdivision would be optional, as Baker proposed it, and require its member schools to pay at least half their eligible student-athletes a minimum of $30,000 annually through a trust fund. That money would be earmarked as “education-related,” though the NCAA doesn’t intend to dictate how the athletes actually spend it. Some perks for joining? The ability for these schools to make their own rules, such as bigger staffs or rosters, without having the voting process muddled by programs with much less money or willingness to spend. www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/01/17/ncaa-subdivision-proposal/
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DanMcQ
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Post by DanMcQ on Jan 27, 2024 11:00:13 GMT -5
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DanMcQ
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Post by DanMcQ on Jan 31, 2024 23:42:59 GMT -5
Not sure exactly where to put this, but…
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RusskyHoya
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Post by RusskyHoya on Feb 2, 2024 12:39:54 GMT -5
That ever-evolving landscape is about to go through some accelerated natural selection, folks
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