BET 2022

[DanMcQ]

[kghoya]

1.5% to get to Friday night seems high

[Elvado]

Mar 6, 2022 8:13:07 GMT -5 kghoya said:

1.5% to get to Friday night seems high

They stand a better chance of missing their bus and forfeiting Wednesday than making it to Friday night…

[BeantownHoya]

Mar 6, 2022 7:44:36 GMT -5 DanMcQ said:

So you're saying there is a chance...

[Nevada Hoya]

The chance of the Hoyas winning it all is about the same percentage that my bank is giving me interest.

[hoyasaxa2003]

Mar 6, 2022 7:44:36 GMT -5 DanMcQ said:

For comparison purposes, our odds last year:

Quarters: 44.5
Semis: 8.8
Finals: 3.1
Championship: 0.8

[hoya9797]

Mar 6, 2022 10:55:49 GMT -5 hoyasaxa2003 said:

Mar 6, 2022 7:44:36 GMT -5 DanMcQ said:

For comparison purposes, our odds last year:

Quarters: 44.5
Semis: 8.8
Finals: 3.1
Championship: 0.8

And people try to claim last year wasn’t a complete fluke.

[RockawayHoya]

Right back where we were 365 days ago... 4 straight wins in NYC or bust.

Hard to believe that's actively become the program/university's annual strategy for making the postseason.

[hoyazeke]

Mar 6, 2022 11:00:14 GMT -5 hoya9797 said:

Mar 6, 2022 10:55:49 GMT -5 hoyasaxa2003 said:

For comparison purposes, our odds last year:

Quarters: 44.5
Semis: 8.8
Finals: 3.1
Championship: 0.8

And people try to claim last year wasn’t a complete fluke.

It was only a fluke if you didn't pay attention to anything but our record. I always thought we could win if we avoided UCONN.

[FrazierFanatic]

Mar 6, 2022 8:13:07 GMT -5 kghoya said:

1.5% to get to Friday night seems high

13.9% to get to Thursday seems way too high.

[the_way]

Mar 6, 2022 10:37:40 GMT -5 Nevada Hoya said:

The chance of the Hoyas winning it all is about the same percentage that my bank is giving me interest.

Well, we have hope.

[vv83]

the odds of us beating Seton Hall are overwhelmingly low. But I do think there is a scenario for us to have a chance:

-Richmond got banged up yesterday - Willard said he'll play, but maybe he won't be 100%.

-Seton Hall could easily look past us. Why wouldn't they? If there has ever been a team that an opponent would have no anxiety about beating, it would be this year's Hoyas. So maybe they come out flat, and maybe playing in the garden gets us fired up enough to come out with some intensity and focus

-If we can stay in the game early due to disinterested play from Seton Hall and a strong effort from the Hoyas - and we are somehow able to hang around into the second half, maybe Seton Hall begins to feel some pressure. It would be highly embarrassing to lose to us at this point. Amazingly, maybe the crowd even gets on our side as a massive underdog?

-and in the end - the game doesn't mean that much to Seton Hall. If they beat us it does not help them at all, and if they lose - they are still safely in the NCAA tournament. a loss may cost them a seed line or two in the NCAA tournament, but I don't think players generally get that motivated by playing for seeding in the middle of the tournament pack.

-most importantly - maybe a few breaks go our way. Maybe we have a hot shooting night from 3. Maybe the Hall is off a bit from outside - they are not a great shooting team, but have shot pretty well against us this season.

-but back to reality - we'll probably be down by 20 by the 15 minute mark of the second half, and then we'll just play out the final minutes of this miserable season from there.

[daveg023]

Seton Hall is the one team in the BE our margin of defeat was smallest over the two games.

So there’s that…

[augustusfinknottle]

Mar 6, 2022 10:55:49 GMT -5 hoyasaxa2003 said:

Mar 6, 2022 7:44:36 GMT -5 DanMcQ said:

For comparison purposes, our odds last year:

Quarters: 44.5
Semis: 8.8
Finals: 3.1
Championship: 0.8

At .8 our chances last year were 27x better than this year. Ponder that.

[bluegray79]

Mar 6, 2022 11:59:37 GMT -5 hoyazeke said:

Mar 6, 2022 11:00:14 GMT -5 hoya9797 said:

And people try to claim last year wasn’t a complete fluke.

It was only a fluke if you didn't pay attention to anything but our record. I always thought we could win if we avoided UCONN.

Agree.  I think the biggest break we got in last year's BET was Creighton beating UConn.  I think UConn would have run all over us much like they had just a week earlier in the last regular season game.  That and Gillespie being out of the Nova lineup.

Not taking anything away from our boys; you play the team that shows up.

[Bigs"R"Us]

We had a better, more experienced team last year. We had conference wins. This season is a dumpster fire. Yes, we can beat SH if the stars align. We are not going to win the BET.

[hoyasaxa2003]

Mar 6, 2022 13:54:00 GMT -5 bluegray79 said:

Mar 6, 2022 11:59:37 GMT -5 hoyazeke said:

It was only a fluke if you didn't pay attention to anything but our record. I always thought we could win if we avoided UCONN.

Agree.  I think the biggest break we got in last year's BET was Creighton beating UConn.  I think UConn would have run all over us much like they had just a week earlier in the last regular season game.  That and Gillespie being out of the Nova lineup.

Not taking anything away from our boys; you play the team that shows up.

Yeah, and that's one small reason why the 0.8% chance of our winning the Big East tournament in 2021 was a little misleading. Obviously, those metrics do not factor in Gillespie being out and Villanova being at full strength. Also, I think "fluke" has a negative connotation that causes people to get defensive.

Obviously, Georgetown played absolutely great basketball in last year's Big East tournament, especially in the Semi-Final and Finals. But, that level of basketball (especially on defense) is something that only occurred at the BET, and was really never replicated before or after (as evidenced by our getting stomped by Colorado).

So, in that sense it was a "stroke of luck" - everything clicked. Everybody who has played any sport (or even many games) knows that there are some circumstances where absolutely everything clicks and things just go great. That's why in non team sports, you occasionally get someone who wins a major tournament who otherwise has very little similar achievement before or after. Sometimes the stars align. That in no way takes away from the accomplishment in any way. But, if a .200 hitter who rarely hits home runs hits 3 in a game, that's an unlucky event - a fluke. Similarly, if a horrible or mediocre pitcher throws a perfect game or no-hitter that's also a fluke (arguably any perfect game or no-hitter is a fluke since so many things have to go right for them to happen - maybe with the exception of someone like Nolan Ryan who had several). Again, it doesn't take away from the achievement, it's just a description for an unlikely event occurring.

So was our winning the BET a fluke? Absolutely. Was it a great achievement for all involved, including Ewing? Absolutely. It's just not something we can look at and extrapolate from. We have to recognize what it was, celebrate it, enjoy it, and move on.

[Grandpa]

As the talking heads always like to say, “it’s hard to beat a team 3 times in a season”. By that logic, we are back to back BET 2022 champs provided we don’t run into Xavier on the way to Saturday night.

[guru]

Mar 6, 2022 14:30:37 GMT -5 hoyasaxa2003 said:

Mar 6, 2022 13:54:00 GMT -5 bluegray79 said:

Agree.  I think the biggest break we got in last year's BET was Creighton beating UConn.  I think UConn would have run all over us much like they had just a week earlier in the last regular season game.  That and Gillespie being out of the Nova lineup.

Not taking anything away from our boys; you play the team that shows up.

Yeah, and that's one small reason why the 0.8% chance of our winning the Big East tournament in 2021 was a little misleading. Obviously, those metrics do not factor in Gillespie being out and Villanova being at full strength. Also, I think "fluke" has a negative connotation that causes people to get defensive.

Obviously, Georgetown played absolutely great basketball in last year's Big East tournament, especially in the Semi-Final and Finals. But, that level of basketball (especially on defense) is something that only occurred at the BET, and was really never replicated before or after (as evidenced by our getting stomped by Colorado).

So, in that sense it was a "stroke of luck" - everything clicked. Everybody who has played any sport (or even many games) knows that there are some circumstances where absolutely everything clicks and things just go great. That's why in non team sports, you occasionally get someone who wins a major tournament who otherwise has very little similar achievement before or after. Sometimes the stars align. That in no way takes away from the accomplishment in any way. But, if a .200 hitter who rarely hits home runs hits 3 in a game, that's an unlucky event - a fluke. Similarly, if a horrible or mediocre pitcher throws a perfect game or no-hitter that's also a fluke (arguably any perfect game or no-hitter is a fluke since so many things have to go right for them to happen - maybe with the exception of someone like Nolan Ryan who had several). Again, it doesn't take away from the achievement, it's just a description for an unlikely event occurring.

So was our winning the BET a fluke? Absolutely. Was it a great achievement for all involved, including Ewing? Absolutely. It's just not something we can look at and extrapolate from. We have to recognize what it was, celebrate it, enjoy it, and move on.

Why are you so adamant on defining it as a “fluke”? It’s an odd obsession.

[hoyasaxa2003]

Mar 6, 2022 15:27:38 GMT -5 guru said:

Why are you so adamant on defining it as a “fluke”? It’s an odd obsession.

If you care to read the rest of the thread on that page, I was directly responding to other people using the term. But fine, if you don't like the word fluke because of its negative connotation (which I referenced in my post, I would add), I'll say it was an unlikely but really cool thing that happened, and we could all enjoy.