Big East Projections 18/19’

[blueandgray]

I know it’s early and we don’t know for sure who is returning and who is making the leap....but given what we know about Georgetown going into next season....how do we project in the league next year? Where do we finish and who are the teams to beat?

[royski]

I would like to compete for the middle of the league next season. I don't expect to get there, but a .500 league record is a good goal I think. I expect at least 7-11 in conference next year, and a NIT bid. Less than that will be a disappointment in my eyes. Achieving that will mean things are on schedule with the rebuild. Exceeding it would be a very good sign.

[bornhoya]

Don’t think 20 wins is out of reach

[BigmanU]

Tier #1
Nova potentially loses Bridges & Brunson, but have plenty of returning pieces.
X loses a ton (Bluiett, Macura, etc.), but should still compete with the young dogs.
Jays lose Foster, but have a lot of young pieces
Friars should be strong again, returning much of their nucleus.

Tier #2
Marquette loses Rowsey, but picks up a good recruit in Hauser which should balance their starting lineup.
Hoyas same team with incoming recruits

Tier #3
The Hall loses everyone but Powell. Big step back.
Butler loses Martin, Wideman etc. Big step back.
St. Johns competes if Ponds returns. House of Cards collapses if he leaves
DePaul is DePaul

Unless something drastically changes, I'll be shocked if we don't compete (in the 4-6 range in standings) next year. We have a shot at .500 in league play or better. A lot of leadership leaves the conference this year.

[hoyasaxa2003]

Given that we have a Second Team All Big East player in Derrickson, another who could have made it (Govan), and two Big East All Freshman, I actually think that when the pre-season polls happen, we will not be selected as ninth again. To be fair, I haven't focused on what other schools are losing, so maybe I am being too optimistic, but right now I could easily see us getting picked 6-7 preseason.

How the 2018 class rounds out will be huge. If we can get just one of the top 100 guards who have decommitted because of the FBI investigation or fired coaches, that would very likely significantly impact where we are.

Right now, my hopes for next year are to go at least 9-9 with a resume that gets us into the tournament. There's no reason we should be worse than this season, and we were on the cusp of winning several games. Plus, while I like Dickerson and Mulmore personally and they seem like really good guys, from a pure basketball perspective I don't think we are losing anything we won't get from McClung, Malinowski, and a hopefully improved Mosely.

I really think we need to get to the NCAA's next year. With losing Govan/Derrickson following 2018-2019, and a yet to be determined 2019 class, I think next year is really our chance to make it there. I am not saying we would go very far once we are there, but I think NCAA selection of any type would be a good result for next season.

EDIT: In reading BigManU's post above, I feel even more confident in my suggestion that being picked 6-7 preseason is very doable.

[Ranch Dressing]

Really excited by the footage of LeBlanc winning state title at Madison Prep. That body is tall, long, and broad. He has really wide shoulders that should fill out with age and weight training. He looks like he could be a beast. High motor. Good coordination. Hops. Rebounds outside his area. Man, if he hones a baseline and free throw jump shot in college, he could be real strong in the Big East. Maybe it was short teammates and competition, but Josh also looked taller than 6'7" to my eye.

Like some on the board, I think the addition of McClung and LeBlanc are immediate upgrades over Mulmore/Dickerson and Kaleb. If you assume Pickett and Blair make standard freshman/soph progression and Govan and Derrickson avoid the senior slump, I would be very surprised that this team isn't .500 or above in the league and looking good for an NCAA invitation.

Just slightly better guard play in critical end-of-game situations this season alone conservatively gives us 2-3 conference wins.

Seems to me that McClung is at once the most anticipated and divisive recruit in a very long time. Can he or can't he deliver the real goods? Do you believe the game film? Or do you doubt the competition level? The divisiveness is ironic, since we have never ever seen as much footage on an in-coming player than we have with McClung. You'd think we'd all be in agreement.

Remember the days when most of us literally had never seen any image at all of an in-coming recruit? Those days are over. What does Patrick Ewing really look like? It was a mystery until you showed up to your first game and were blown away.

[Deleted]

With our current lineup for next year, I'm going with 7 wins in conference.

Better ooc schedule and 13 games instead of 11... and I'll go with 17-14 overall.

Totally blind prediction.

When our roster and the other BE rosters shake out, our schedule is finalized, and we've all seen Kenner -- I'll come back with a sane guess.

[jwp91]

Mar 12, 2018 14:25:56 GMT -5 @nychoya94 said:

With our current lineup for next year, I'm going with 7 wins in conference.

Better ooc schedule and 13 games instead of 11... and I'll go with 17-14 overall.

Totally blind prediction.

When our roster and the other BE rosters shake out, our schedule is finalized, and we've all seen Kenner -- I'll come back with a sane guess.

I’ll take the over.

[SDHoya]

I think with Xavier, Butler and Hall each losing a lot, the BE will be a bit weaker next year, and will provide a nice opening for the Hoyas to step back into the picture. I'd like to see 10-8 next year, and hoping that the OOC will be upgraded a bit.

[ColumbiaHeightsHoya]

Mar 12, 2018 13:27:50 GMT -5 BigmanU said:

Tier #1
Nova potentially loses Bridges & Brunson, but have plenty of returning pieces.
X loses a ton (Bluiett, Macura, etc.), but should still compete with the young dogs.
Jays lose Foster, but have a lot of young pieces
Friars should be strong again, returning much of their nucleus.

Tier #2
Marquette loses Rowsey, but picks up a good recruit in Hauser which should balance their starting lineup.
Hoyas same team with incoming recruits

Tier #3
The Hall loses everyone but Powell. Big step back.
Butler loses Martin, Wideman etc. Big step back.
St. Johns competes if Ponds returns. House of Cards collapses if he leaves
DePaul is DePaul

Unless something drastically changes, I'll be shocked if we don't compete (in the 4-6 range in standings) next year. We have a shot at .500 in league play or better. A lot of leadership leaves the conference this year.

Following from this back of the napkin analysis, I would like us at 10-8 and ahead of Provy & Marquette in 4th in the conference. Hoya colored view for sure but with sophomore improvement, year two in the new system, and improved talent level I think it's possible. Need to make the tourney.

[blueandgray]

I too wear Hoya colored glasses but really believe we can finish in the 3 to 5 range if a few things come together.

(1). Govan and Derrickson return....looks to be happening
(2). Pickett, Blar and Walker continue to improve....see no reason why they wouldn’t.
(3). Mosely and Johnson are solid role players and score 6-8 points a game.
(4). One of either Leblanc or McClung are named to the all-freashman team.

None of the above is a stretch....and splitting with teams like Butler, Provy, and Marquette should be the expectation. Anything less than 9 wins would be a disappointment in my eyes.

[smokeyjack]

Mar 12, 2018 14:30:31 GMT -5 jwp91 said:

Mar 12, 2018 14:25:56 GMT -5 @nychoya94 said:

With our current lineup for next year, I'm going with 7 wins in conference.

Better ooc schedule and 13 games instead of 11... and I'll go with 17-14 overall.

Totally blind prediction.

When our roster and the other BE rosters shake out, our schedule is finalized, and we've all seen Kenner -- I'll come back with a sane guess.

I’ll take the over.

Me too on the over. Seven conference wins would be regression unless JG, Pickett or MD bail. If Mac is a end-I’d-season-level Dickerson, then you go .500 or better in a depleted BE.

[Bigs"R"Us]

9-9 is the floor. 12-6 is the goal.

[jwp91]

Mar 12, 2018 15:54:54 GMT -5 blueandgray said:

I too wear Hoya colored glasses but really believe we can finish in the 3 to 5 range if a few things come together.

(1). Govan and Derrickson return....looks to be happening
(2). Pickett, Blar and Walker continue to improve....see no reason why they wouldn’t.
(3). Mosely and Johnson are solid role players and score 6-8 points a game.
(4). One of either Leblanc or McClung are named to the all-freashman team.

None of the above is a stretch....and splitting with teams like Butler, Provy, and Marquette should be the expectation. Anything less than 9 wins would be a disappointment in my eyes.

Great breakdown

[daytonahoya31]

To me, it 100 percent depends on what we have at point guard.

If we get average to good point guard play, we have a chance to be pretty good, especially offensively. Marcus and Jessie could be the best frontcourt tandem in the league. Jamarko has a chance to be a pro. Josh coming means we can not play Kaleb 25 minutes, which will be great for us. We have good pieces around the one spot.

So, we either need Mac to take the reigns, take control of the team and run the team. Or we need to recruit someone who can do so.

We had the very worst point guard play in the Big East. So, if we can improve there, we actually have a chance to be pretty good

[seaweed]

Mar 12, 2018 15:54:54 GMT -5 blueandgray said:

I too wear Hoya colored glasses but really believe we can finish in the 3 to 5 range if a few things come together.

(1). Govan and Derrickson return....looks to be happening
(2). Pickett, Blar and Walker continue to improve....see no reason why they wouldn’t.
(3). Mosely and Johnson are solid role players and score 6-8 points a game.
(4). One of either Leblanc or McClung are named to the all-freashman team.

None of the above is a stretch....and splitting with teams like Butler, Provy, and Marquette should be the expectation. Anything less than 9 wins would be a disappointment in my eyes.

Not to be picky, but the reason to question #2 is because we are still waiting for #3. I know, staffing changes and better player development regime in place now, but if Mosley and Johnson haven’t improved, why will the Frosh? Not saying I believe this, but that would be the reason to doubt #2

[bamahoya11]

This is fun to speculate about, though it's still way too early to really know how we might stack up. I'll make two predictions: (1) Ewing improves the OOC but only slightly, not enough to really make a big difference; and (2) we win 8 BE games and finish somewhere around 7th in the league. It's not inconceivable to me that we could improve, but I still think folks are a bit too optimistic about where we can go in one year's time.

My biggest question is how we set up defensively. When I play back the biggest challenge from the season, it's that we failed to defend in key moments. Govan and Derrickson were already great this season on offense, and sure they may get better and we may get scoring options, but we need to be able to get a stop in crunch time. At first glance, I don't see the roadmap for a marked improvement. Govan and Derrickson aren't elite defenders. We don't have an elite defender on the team, and I doubt that any of our freshmen, even if talented, will become elite defenders in their first year. Maybe an extra off season of work will do more than I expect, but we have a long way to go.

We also can't discount the rest of our league . The rest of our league is quite good. We already beat DePaul and St. John's this year in the regular season standings. At first glance, I don't see a team we will clearly jump next season and I could make a case that St. John's could easily pass us. It wouldn't surprise me though for us to jump a spot or two, maybe beating a Butler or a Providence or a Marquette or something like that. Thus, I'm left with reasons for optimism but a general sense that we may be better next year, though it may not show up in the standings very much.

[seaweed]

Mar 12, 2018 13:27:50 GMT -5 BigmanU said:

Tier #1
Nova potentially loses Bridges & Brunson, but have plenty of returning pieces.
X loses a ton (Bluiett, Macura, etc.), but should still compete with the young dogs.
Jays lose Foster, but have a lot of young pieces
Friars should be strong again, returning much of their nucleus.

Tier #2
Marquette loses Rowsey, but picks up a good recruit in Hauser which should balance their starting lineup.
Hoyas same team with incoming recruits

Tier #3
The Hall loses everyone but Powell. Big step back.
Butler loses Martin, Wideman etc. Big step back.
St. Johns competes if Ponds returns. House of Cards collapses if he leaves
DePaul is DePaul

Unless something drastically changes, I'll be shocked if we don't compete (in the 4-6 range in standings) next year. We have a shot at .500 in league play or better. A lot of leadership leaves the conference this year.

Xavier also loses Kanter and O’Mara, leaving Marshall as their only returning height. They have a three star local seven footer committed but don’t currently have a presence to counter our interior strength next year.

[jwp91]

Mar 12, 2018 21:50:30 GMT -5 bamahoya11 said:

This is fun to speculate about, though it's still way too early to really know how we might stack up. I'll make two predictions: (1) Ewing improves the OOC but only slightly, not enough to really make a big difference; and (2) we win 8 BE games and finish somewhere around 7th in the league. It's not inconceivable to me that we could improve, but I still think folks are a bit too optimistic about where we can go in one year's time.

My biggest question is how we set up defensively. When I play back the biggest challenge from the season, it's that we failed to defend in key moments. Govan and Derrickson were already great this season on offense, and sure they may get better and we may get scoring options, but we need to be able to get a stop in crunch time. At first glance, I don't see the roadmap for a marked improvement. Govan and Derrickson aren't elite defenders. We don't have an elite defender on the team, and I doubt that any of our freshmen, even if talented, will become elite defenders in their first year. Maybe an extra off season of work will do more than I expect, but we have a long way to go.

We also can't discount the rest of our league . The rest of our league is quite good. We already beat DePaul and St. John's this year in the regular season standings. At first glance, I don't see a team we will clearly jump next season and I could make a case that St. John's could easily pass us. It wouldn't surprise me though for us to jump a spot or two, maybe beating a Butler or a Providence or a Marquette or something like that. Thus, I'm left with reasons for optimism but a general sense that we may be better next year, though it may not show up in the standings very much.

My concern with this take is that it puts us on a trajectory to absolute dumpster fire (worse than this year) when MD and JG graduate in 1 year.

[calhoya]

Mar 12, 2018 21:50:30 GMT -5 bamahoya11 said:

This is fun to speculate about, though it's still way too early to really know how we might stack up. I'll make two predictions: (1) Ewing improves the OOC but only slightly, not enough to really make a big difference; and (2) we win 8 BE games and finish somewhere around 7th in the league. It's not inconceivable to me that we could improve, but I still think folks are a bit too optimistic about where we can go in one year's time.

My biggest question is how we set up defensively. When I play back the biggest challenge from the season, it's that we failed to defend in key moments. Govan and Derrickson were already great this season on offense, and sure they may get better and we may get scoring options, but we need to be able to get a stop in crunch time. At first glance, I don't see the roadmap for a marked improvement. Govan and Derrickson aren't elite defenders. We don't have an elite defender on the team, and I doubt that any of our freshmen, even if talented, will become elite defenders in their first year. Maybe an extra off season of work will do more than I expect, but we have a long way to go.

We also can't discount the rest of our league . The rest of our league is quite good. We already beat DePaul and St. John's this year in the regular season standings. At first glance, I don't see a team we will clearly jump next season and I could make a case that St. John's could easily pass us. It wouldn't surprise me though for us to jump a spot or two, maybe beating a Butler or a Providence or a Marquette or something like that. Thus, I'm left with reasons for optimism but a general sense that we may be better next year, though it may not show up in the standings very much.

Well since you raised it, failing to improve the OOC schedule significantly would be a major mistake in my opinion. The system is in place and the key players are returning. I believe that the failure to have more challenging games in the pre-conference this year hurt this team when it played against the higher level of competition in the BE. No reason that the Hoyas cannot bring in teams with RPIs in the 100-200 range. Also, you want to help recruiting , you schedule one of the exempt tournaments where the players get some early exposure instead of playing Alabama A&M in a game no one watches.