Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 14, 2018 9:06:46 GMT -5
The floor is 8 BE wins and ceiling is 12. As others have stated above, we were very close to .500 team in conference this season with a few breaks - and we lose almost nothing while the conference in general is gutted. If we don’t win 10 in BE next season, I predict 2019-20 will be a very long season indeed and make or break for Pat with his weakest roster on paper. Next year is clearly his season to make a leap, land a blue chip or two and move to the next level. Miss that opportunity and things are going to be much, much harder going forward. That’s just a reality. I hear you but I’m not buying the luck factor. It wasn’t bad luck that caused our close losses, it was mental lapses and poor end game execution. And a few wins we had could have gone the other way too. Nevertheless, I say we must improve on last season’s win total which is why I set the floor at 6. With some teams weakening, improvement from our players, and hopefully better execution, conditioning, and end game management, I’ll stick with 10 on the outside. And don’t forget 9 or 10 BE wins with an improved non-conf schedule should put us in the mix for a NCAA berth. That’s where we want to be next year. But 12 wins seems too much to realistically expect. Yeah - a lot of strange optimism around here w/ our "close losses" as justification. Our five wins and our five toughest losses were almost all toss-ups late in the game. I'd say we fell right in the normal distribution of outcomes there. The Syracuse and Butler blown leads happening early in the year seemed to keep the fanbase in the "maybe we're not terrible" camp longer than it perhaps should've been. I'm not saying we won't improve our record next year, just that "this team was kind of unlucky" is not a real strong argument.
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BigmanU
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
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Post by BigmanU on Mar 14, 2018 9:09:35 GMT -5
The floor is 6 big east wins. Ceiling is 10. The floor is 8 BE wins and ceiling is 12. As others have stated above, we were very close to .500 team in conference this season with a few breaks - and we lose almost nothing while the conference in general is gutted. If we don’t win 10 in BE next season, I predict 2019-20 will be a very long season indeed and make or break for Pat with his weakest roster on paper. Next year is clearly his season to make a leap, land a blue chip or two and move to the next level. Miss that opportunity and things are going to be much, much harder going forward. That’s just a reality. I agree about next year's prediction, but there is no reason we should fall off a cliff with the departure of Govan & Derrickson. Pickett & Blair will both be upperclassmen and if Pickett makes the leap I think he will, we'll be in good shape. The roster in 19'-20' will be completely different.
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NCHoya
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by NCHoya on Mar 14, 2018 9:23:40 GMT -5
I hear you but I’m not buying the luck factor. It wasn’t bad luck that caused our close losses, it was mental lapses and poor end game execution. And a few wins we had could have gone the other way too. Nevertheless, I say we must improve on last season’s win total which is why I set the floor at 6. With some teams weakening, improvement from our players, and hopefully better execution, conditioning, and end game management, I’ll stick with 10 on the outside. And don’t forget 9 or 10 BE wins with an improved non-conf schedule should put us in the mix for a NCAA berth. That’s where we want to be next year. But 12 wins seems too much to realistically expect. Yeah - a lot of strange optimism around here w/ our "close losses" as justification. Our five wins and our five toughest losses were almost all toss-ups late in the game. I'd say we fell right in the normal distribution of outcomes there. The Syracuse and Butler blown leads happening early in the year seemed to keep the fanbase in the "maybe we're not terrible" camp longer than it perhaps should've been. I'm not saying we won't improve our record next year, just that "this team was kind of unlucky" is not a real strong argument. Agree with you nyc. I am not sure what luck has to do with blowing a 20 point lead to Butler, but beyond that, we lost in a similar fashion repeatedly. There were clear themes, we could not get stops, shaky end game coaching and our guard play was not good enough when it mattered the most. It is not like we lost games in all different ways, it was pretty much the same flaws contributing over and over. In the Seton Hall win, we gave away a big lead and just hung on because SHU missed an open last shot. The SJU win was because Derrickson hit a huge shot to tie it, we were outplayed in that game. Anyway, I am not going to get too caught up in a specific record for next season until rosters are set for us and the opponents. I just want to see continued improvement in coaching, roster talent and on-court play.
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seaweed
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by seaweed on Mar 14, 2018 9:25:43 GMT -5
For what its worth, our KenPom "luck" ranking was 286th in the country. 'Ken Pomeroy describes luck in his blog as “the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record using the correlated gaussian method.” Said it before and I will say it again, that is not a definition of luck, it is a definition of suck. Sorry if that stings, but underperforming expectations is what it is, can't call it luck, even if you more accurately described it as "bad luck" since it only measures downward deviation.
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the_way
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
The Illest
Posts: 5,422
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Post by the_way on Mar 14, 2018 9:35:11 GMT -5
The floor is 8 BE wins and ceiling is 12. As others have stated above, we were very close to .500 team in conference this season with a few breaks - and we lose almost nothing while the conference in general is gutted. If we don’t win 10 in BE next season, I predict 2019-20 will be a very long season indeed and make or break for Pat with his weakest roster on paper. Next year is clearly his season to make a leap, land a blue chip or two and move to the next level. Miss that opportunity and things are going to be much, much harder going forward. That’s just a reality. I agree about next year's prediction, but there is no reason we should fall off a cliff with the departure of Govan & Derrickson. Pickett & Blair will both be upperclassmen and if Pickett makes the leap I think he will, we'll be in good shape. The roster in 19'-20' will be completely different. Don't underestimate the talents of Govan and Derrickson. You aren't going to find too many big men with their skill sets. Big men that have inside game and are skilled enough to hit a 3 point shot. They both present a unique matchup problem for opposing defenses. In a perfect world, if Picket does become the next KD and Blair becomes the next Ben Gordon, they won't be able to fill the type of void once Govan and Derrickson are gone. We need guards for next year and beyond. But we also need some bigs too once Govan and Derrickson are gone. These next 2 recruiting classes are crucial for Ewing and this program.
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SSHoya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
"Forget it Jake, it's Chinatown."
Posts: 18,545
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Post by SSHoya on Mar 14, 2018 9:35:25 GMT -5
For what its worth, our KenPom "luck" ranking was 286th in the country. 'Ken Pomeroy describes luck in his blog as “the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record using the correlated gaussian method.” Said it before and I will say it again, that is not a definition of luck, it is a definition of suck. Sorry if that stings, but underperforming expectations is what it is, can't call it luck, even if you more accurately described it as "bad luck" since it only measures downward deviation. "Luck is when preparation meets opportunity." -- Seneca (or John Wooden)
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Post by glidehoyas (Inactive) on Mar 14, 2018 9:39:19 GMT -5
Asking. Are you saying if we land a good pg next season will be a waste of time? If so, landing a good to great point guard will and can never be a waste of time. I think people under estimate point guards, but we season after season all of the great teams that have good to great point guards move on in March March and win national tournaments season after season. Yes that is what I am saying. Landing a good PG would be a waste of time. I hope we never get a good PG. Who needs a good PG? Hahahahahahahahahahahaha...okkkkkkkkkkk.
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GIGAFAN99
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,487
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 14, 2018 10:02:35 GMT -5
For what its worth, our KenPom "luck" ranking was 286th in the country. 'Ken Pomeroy describes luck in his blog as “the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record using the correlated gaussian method.” Said it before and I will say it again, that is not a definition of luck, it is a definition of suck. Sorry if that stings, but underperforming expectations is what it is, can't call it luck, even if you more accurately described it as "bad luck" since it only measures downward deviation. But that's better right? If it were pure luck, it's out of our hands. Instead real improvement even slight can move the needle substantially in results. Which I think is what people are saying.
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BigmanU
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 915
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Post by BigmanU on Mar 14, 2018 10:05:15 GMT -5
I agree about next year's prediction, but there is no reason we should fall off a cliff with the departure of Govan & Derrickson. Pickett & Blair will both be upperclassmen and if Pickett makes the leap I think he will, we'll be in good shape. The roster in 19'-20' will be completely different. Don't underestimate the talents of Govan and Derrickson. You aren't going to find too many big men with their skill sets. Big men that have inside game and are skilled enough to hit a 3 point shot. They both present a unique matchup problem for opposing defenses. In a perfect world, if Picket does become the next KD and Blair becomes the next Ben Gordon, they won't be able to fill the type of void once Govan and Derrickson are gone. We need guards for next year and beyond. But we also need some bigs too once Govan and Derrickson are gone. These next 2 recruiting classes are crucial for Ewing and this program. Completely understand and not sleeping on Govan or Derrickson's skill set, but as I mentioned previously, this roster will be completely different by then. The frontcourt would be addressed with the 18' class (LeBlanc & Carter, TBD?), 19' recruits, or via the transfer route.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Mar 14, 2018 10:16:57 GMT -5
For what it's worth, in 2017 our "luck" rating was 345 out of 351, so that's two consecutive years with fairly low "luck" numbers. As someone else said, this measures the "deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record using the correlated gaussian method." So basically, in both 2017 and 2018 our actual record deviated from our "expected record."
To some degree, any team that loses a lot of close games (which was definitely Georgetown in the last two years) is going to have a bad luck rating because their record is going to be under what would be expected on average.
So it's not really "luck" in the sense of randomness, but rather a reflection of how often a team exceeds or falls short of expected record. To some degree, there is luck here - for example, at the end of many of our games (or games that went to overtime), we took shots that could have gone in and didn't, and ultimately we lost. Oftentimes the difference between a shot barely going in and rimming out are very close. So there is some element of luck and circumstance there, but ultimately better teams are going to win more in those situations.
However, for what it's worth, there are a bunch of teams much better than us with bad "luck" ratings too.
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Bigs"R"Us
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Post by Bigs"R"Us on Mar 14, 2018 10:27:05 GMT -5
I hope we are a quicker and bouncier team in the post Govan-Derrickson era.
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drquigley
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by drquigley on Mar 14, 2018 12:28:08 GMT -5
Said it before and I will say it again, that is not a definition of luck, it is a definition of suck. Sorry if that stings, but underperforming expectations is what it is, can't call it luck, even if you more accurately described it as "bad luck" since it only measures downward deviation. "Luck is when preparation meets opportunity." -- Seneca (or John Wooden) "Luck is the residue of design"- Branch Rickey
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drquigley
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by drquigley on Mar 14, 2018 12:34:56 GMT -5
I hope we are a quicker and bouncier team in the post Govan-Derrickson era. I keep saying that Nova should be the template. A good big man who can rebound and defend surrounded by 4 guys (call them whatever you will, guards/forwards/etc) between 6'3" - 6'8" who can shoot 3's, dribble penetrate, score off the dribble, play defense, and play under control. We will miss Jesse and MD but I'm guessing (hoping) the 2020 team will look a lot more like Nova/Creighton/Providence than past Hoya teams.
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hoyalaw33
Century (over 100 posts)
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Post by hoyalaw33 on Mar 14, 2018 13:30:10 GMT -5
I understand the general pessimistic sentiment being expressed by most, but I am unsure if people have actually evaluated other teams as a whole before making predictions. When you look at the conference the BE will not be nearly as good next year, at the top end or in the middle, and thus, our strong returning nucleus should see us surpass some teams next year. Breaking it down. Xavier- Macura, Blueitt, O'Mara, & Kanter Nova- Brunson (NBA), Bridges (NBA) Seton Hall- Delgado, Rodriguez, Carrington, & Sanogo Creighton- Foster, Hegner, Thomas (NBA) Provy-Bullock, Lindsey, Cartwright Butler- Martin & Wideman Marquette- Rowsey Georgetown- Mulmore & Dickerson St Johns- Ahmed -------- Depaul- N/A
When looking at the holes left by these departures I don't think its absurd to say we are a top 3 team solely based on returning players. We should be able to jump Marquette, Butler, Seton Hall, Providence, and Creighton based on what we return with a shot at surpassing X. Break down the predicted starting lineups and you see the BE is pretty devoid of talent next year unless we see huge jumps from some role players.
Disclaimer: I am a man who puts more stock in watching freshman play than basing performance on high school rankings so the newcomers have not factored into my analysis to this point. I think we are an easy top 5 BE team next year if we get solid guard play and Pickett becomes a legit 3rd head for our 3-headed beast. I think the defense will improve by default once the guys have Ewings schemes down more and our perimeter players get more athletic.
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lichoya68
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
OK YOUNGINS ARE HERE AND ARE VERY VERY GOOD cant wait GO HOYAS
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Post by lichoya68 on Mar 14, 2018 14:29:03 GMT -5
OK FIRST OR SECOND IN THE BIG EAST yup and at least twenty wins and at least 12 wins in the big east yup RIGHT HERE BELIEVE> we will have horses and hustle and rebbies and threes and foul shots AND DEFENSE yup just gotta get that ONE nore excellent point guard go get em pat ONE MORE
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lichoya68
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
OK YOUNGINS ARE HERE AND ARE VERY VERY GOOD cant wait GO HOYAS
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Post by lichoya68 on Mar 14, 2018 14:30:37 GMT -5
and jesse and narcus coming back oh my and DJ's stud from new orleans and mac will be ok yup we will see PRESSEMUP runemoff DEFENSE go hoyas go pat wowoowwowoowowowoowowwowowo cant wait for kenner coming SOOn
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jwp91
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by jwp91 on Mar 14, 2018 14:31:07 GMT -5
When I try to wish my son “Good Luck!” before a race, he responds that “luck is the last dying wish of those who want to believe that winning can happen by accident.”
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blueandgray
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by blueandgray on Mar 14, 2018 15:05:42 GMT -5
I hear you but I’m not buying the luck factor. It wasn’t bad luck that caused our close losses, it was mental lapses and poor end game execution. And a few wins we had could have gone the other way too. Nevertheless, I say we must improve on last season’s win total which is why I set the floor at 6. With some teams weakening, improvement from our players, and hopefully better execution, conditioning, and end game management, I’ll stick with 10 on the outside. And don’t forget 9 or 10 BE wins with an improved non-conf schedule should put us in the mix for a NCAA berth. That’s where we want to be next year. But 12 wins seems too much to realistically expect. Yeah - a lot of strange optimism around here w/ our "close losses" as justification. Strange post. No one said the team was “unlucky”. The argument is that we will learn how to play with double digit leads and win more of the Ganesh. Our five wins and our five toughest losses were almost all toss-ups late in the game. I'd say we fell right in the normal distribution of outcomes there. The Syracuse and Butler blown leads happening early in the year seemed to keep the fanbase in the "maybe we're not terrible" camp longer than it perhaps should've been. I'm not saying we won't improve our record next year, just that "this team was kind of unlucky" is not a real strong argument.
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seaweed
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by seaweed on Mar 14, 2018 15:52:13 GMT -5
When I try to wish my son “Good Luck!” before a race, he responds that “luck is the last dying wish of those who want to believe that winning can happen by accident.” Just the right mix of JYD and Francis Sawyer, aka Lighten Up Francis
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paranoia2
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
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Post by paranoia2 on Mar 14, 2018 17:52:56 GMT -5
Great quote about luck. I believe that Pickett will make a huge leap next year. The kid has skills to burn...
If Govan & Derrickson return the Hoyas will be a bubble team and slightly over .500 in the conference.
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