NCAA Tournament 2018 Predictions and Discussion

[This Just In]

NCAA Final Four
South: (2) Cincinnati vs. East: (4) Gonzaga
East: (1) Villanova    vs. Midwest: (3) Michigan St.

Championship Game:
South: (2) Cincinnati vs Midwest: (3) Michigan St.
Winner: Michigan St.

[drquigley]

UVA - Providence
Nova - Kansas

UVA - Nova

Nova

Providence will either win me some money in my pool or kill me. Don't expect much from other BE teams other than Nova.

[hoya95]

Arizona really impressed me this weekend, and I'm tempted to pick them to go far. But can you get a refund on your pool if the FBI steps in during the tournament? How does this work exactly?

I'd love to see Providence go on a run. But if they have enough energy left to get to the 2nd round, they'll have to beat North Carolina in Charlotte. They always seem to get a lousy draw in the tournament.

[This Just In]

Tournament questions:

What is the Quadrant System?

How does Oklahoma get in?

Lost 11 of last 15 games

Since Jan. 16th the team has won 4 games

18-13, conf. 8-10

How does St. Mary's not get in?
28-5, #20 ranked, RPI 40

How does UCLA & Arionza St. get in over USC?
-USC 23- 11,  conf. 12-6, RPI 34, finisher #2 during regular season & lost in the Pac-12 championship game
-UCLA 21-11, conf.11-7, RPI 36
-Arizona St. 20-11,  conf. 8-10, RPI 66

How does Middle Tennessee not get in?
23-7, RPI 33 and loss in conf. championship game


The field is at 68 teams and the decision of who gets in and who does not is still baffling.

[boxout05]

Middle Tennessee didn't lose in Conference Championship game. They lost their first game to 9th seeded Southern Miss. That's why they're out. MT and SMC probably would have been safe if they made it to the title game, but both fell short.

On edit: MT a 3 seed in the NIT. Guessing the committee wouldn't have given them a bid with a title game loss either. You can debate that.

[HometownHoya]

USC (and Ok State and L'ville) were blacklisted from this year's tournament. NCAA didn't want the FBI discussion to be a part of any talking points for the tournament.

[hoyasaxa2003]

Mar 12, 2018 11:07:49 GMT -5 This Just In said:

How does St. Mary's not get in?
28-5, #20 ranked, RPI 40

How does UCLA & Arionza St. get in over USC?
-USC 23- 11,  conf. 12-6, RPI 34, finisher #2 during regular season & lost in the Pac-12 championship game
-UCLA 21-11, conf.11-7, RPI 36
-Arizona St. 20-11,  conf. 8-10, RPI 66

How does Middle Tennessee not get in?
23-7, RPI 33 and loss in conf. championship game


The field is at 68 teams and the decision of who gets in and who does not is still baffling.

In reference to St. Mary's, the committee chairman (Creighton's athletic director) pointed to their weak scheduling. Unlike the teams, below, they did have a good win (Gonzaga, 8), but they did lose to 182 Washington St. and 142 San Francisco. Still, even with beating Gonzaga, that's only one top 50 win, and they have two sub 100 losses.

In USC's case, they lost all of their top 50 conference games (UCLA, Arizona State, Arizona, UCLA, and Arizona in the Pac 12 final). Their best wins all year were in the OOC - Texas A&M (30) and Oklahoma (47). That's likely what kept them out, but I view USC as the strongest of the three you asked about and would have gladly swapped them in for Syracuse (though Syracuse did have good wins against Louisville, Miami, Clemson, and Virginia Tech).

Middle Tennessee is similar. Yes, they were 24-7, but their best wins were Murray State (59) and Wastern Kentucky twice (60). They lost to Auburn (16), USC (40), and Miami (36). They also had some sub-100 level losses: Marshall twice (114) and their loss to Southern Miss (217) in the Conference USA tournament was really bad.

I think generally, there is simply more room for error for the teams in better conferences. A league like the Big East or Big 12 or ACC offers teams tons of opportunities to get good wins many times over the season. In contrast, a school like Saint Mary's basically gets one chance against Gonzaga. For mid-major conferences, it's key for the teams to play (and win) against stronger out of conference opponents than it is for major conference teams who will get a lot of opportunities throughout the year.

A good example is that despite having the worst OOC in all of Division 1, Georgetown still finished with a strength of schedule of 104 (because the Big East was so good this year), whereas Saint Mary's finished with a strength of schedule of 169.

[mdtd]

How the heck did Syracuse make it? They don't have any really great wins and lost to teams they should beat. They have no right to be there, let alone being given 2 favorable matchups. Could TCU beat them? It's iffy for me.

[SDHoya]

Mar 12, 2018 14:01:47 GMT -5 mdtd said:

How the heck did Syracuse make it? They don't have any really great wins and lost to teams they should beat. They have no right to be there, let alone being given 2 favorable matchups. Could TCU beat them? It's iffy for me.

Agree that Cuse got a BS invite. But would think that if anyone (outside of the BE and ACC) would know how to prepare a team for the Boeheim zone, it would be Jamie Dixon.

[jctnhoya4ever]

I got Virginia winning it all.there defense is a juggernaut and they have better offense than normal this year to. Just a pick,I would not be surprised if nova,won it though.

[GUJook97]

Mar 12, 2018 10:35:23 GMT -5 hoya95 said:

Arizona really impressed me this weekend, and I'm tempted to pick them to go far. But can you get a refund on your pool if the FBI steps in during the tournament? How does this work exactly?

I'd love to see Providence go on a run. But if they have enough energy left to get to the 2nd round, they'll have to beat North Carolina in Charlotte. They always seem to get a lousy draw in the tournament.

Yeah, I wouldnt be surprised if only 1-2 BE teams make it out of the first weekend. We'll have to hear about how overrated the BE is again, but the BE gets pretty lousy draws every year. Creighton, Butler, Providence, Seton Hall. Will any of them even be favored in their first game?

[mdtd]

Mar 12, 2018 15:39:05 GMT -5 GUJook97 said:

Mar 12, 2018 10:35:23 GMT -5 hoya95 said:

Arizona really impressed me this weekend, and I'm tempted to pick them to go far. But can you get a refund on your pool if the FBI steps in during the tournament? How does this work exactly?

I'd love to see Providence go on a run. But if they have enough energy left to get to the 2nd round, they'll have to beat North Carolina in Charlotte. They always seem to get a lousy draw in the tournament.

Yeah, I wouldnt be surprised if only 1-2 BE teams make it out of the first weekend. We'll have to hear about how overrated the BE is again, but the BE gets pretty lousy draws every year. Creighton, Butler, Providence, Seton Hall. Will any of them even be favored in their first game?

Creighton got the worst matchup. Playing an underrated team followed by UVA. Sleeper to make sweet 16, but I can't see it happening. Plus, Creighton
should be at least a 7.

[wrestlemania]

I predict that Trae Young will launch multiple shots from 35 feet and someone on TV will still call him the next Oscar Robertson.

[DanMcQ]

Finally some good news.

[hoyasaxa2003]

Mar 12, 2018 15:39:05 GMT -5 GUJook97 said:

Yeah, I wouldnt be surprised if only 1-2 BE teams make it out of the first weekend. We'll have to hear about how overrated the BE is again, but the BE gets pretty lousy draws every year. Creighton, Butler, Providence, Seton Hall. Will any of them even be favored in their first game?

I am not sure if the Las Vegas odds are out yet, but unless a game is 50/50, the KenPom odds are usually synonymous with whoever the favorite is.

According to KenPom, Seton Hall, Butler and Creighton are 56% to win (so a small favorite), and Providence is only at 38%. So in all likelihood 5 of the 6 teams will be favorites. Villanova and Xavier play the winners of the play in games for the 16 seed but they will be overwhelming favorites.

Butler actually got a relativity good draw for the first round, in that they are a 10 seed yet favored anyway.

[Nevada Hoya]

I'm with jctn in picking UVA In the only time I saw them on TV they were a tight well coached team.

[Deleted]

Mar 12, 2018 17:09:59 GMT -5 DanMcQ said:

Finally some good news.

Act like a child, expect to be disciplined like you're a child.

[hoyarooter]

Mar 12, 2018 11:07:49 GMT -5 This Just In said:

Tournament questions:

What is the Quadrant System?

How does Oklahoma get in?

Lost 11 of last 15 games

Since Jan. 16th the team has won 4 games

18-13, conf. 8-10

How does St. Mary's not get in?
28-5, #20 ranked, RPI 40

How does UCLA & Arionza St. get in over USC?
-USC 23- 11,  conf. 12-6, RPI 34, finisher #2 during regular season & lost in the Pac-12 championship game
-UCLA 21-11, conf.11-7, RPI 36
-Arizona St. 20-11,  conf. 8-10, RPI 66

How does Middle Tennessee not get in?
23-7, RPI 33 and loss in conf. championship game
.


The field is at 68 teams and the decision of who gets in and who does not is still baffling.

UCLA beat USC twice, including beating them handily at the Galen Center, beat Kentucky and beat Arizona, and even when they lost to Arizona, it was in overtime. So while USC didn't lose to Colorado twice, good wins count more than not so good losses. That said, USC should have been in anyway

[This Just In]

Mar 12, 2018 15:39:05 GMT -5 GUJook97 said:

Mar 12, 2018 10:35:23 GMT -5 hoya95 said:

Arizona really impressed me this weekend, and I'm tempted to pick them to go far. But can you get a refund on your pool if the FBI steps in during the tournament? How does this work exactly?

I'd love to see Providence go on a run. But if they have enough energy left to get to the 2nd round, they'll have to beat North Carolina in Charlotte. They always seem to get a lousy draw in the tournament.

Yeah, I wouldnt be surprised if only 1-2 BE teams make it out of the first weekend. We'll have to hear about how overrated the BE is again, but the BE gets pretty lousy draws every year. Creighton, Butler, Providence, Seton Hall. Will any of them even be favored in their first game?

I got Creighton, Xavier, Providence, Butler, and Villanova winning their 1st Rd. games.
And only Xavier and Villanova getting past the 2nd Rd. and making the Sweet 16.

[DanMcQ]