vv83
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Post by vv83 on Jan 31, 2016 12:50:55 GMT -5
I do think we need to win at least one of our road games this week. Seton Hall and Butler are right in the mix for the bottom of the tournament field, and both are ahead of us right now. Two losses and I don't think we'll have much chance unless we beat both Xavier and Nova down the stretch. a split and we are probably still alive, but with a lot of work to do. A sweep and we are likely right back on the bubble.
Ochefu is out today for Nova (vs. St John's) due to a concussion he suffered in practice this week. We need Nova to keep beating the other middle of the road big east teams - hopefully he'll be back soon
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drquigley
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Post by drquigley on Jan 31, 2016 13:05:34 GMT -5
Fwiw Lunardi tweeted that Hoyas would've been in his hypothetical bracket with a win last night. Hard to imagine they get dinged too much for a close loss against a top 10 team. Still plenty of chances for good wins but the margin for error isn't large. The 4 games against Butler and Seton Hall are huge since they are likely to be on the same part of the bubble as us. While I agree they need to play better in order to win the games they need to, our tourny life is not on life support quite yet. Completely agree. Been saying for 2 weeks that its between us and Seton Hall for a fourth BE team in the tourney. Next two games are GIGANTIC.
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drquigley
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Post by drquigley on Jan 31, 2016 13:07:48 GMT -5
I do think we need to win at least one of our road games this week. Seton Hall and Butler are right in the mix for the bottom of the tournament field, and both are ahead of us right now. Two losses and I don't think we'll have much chance unless we beat both Xavier and Nova down the stretch. a split and we are probably still alive, but with a lot of work to do. A sweep and we are likely right back on the bubble. Ochefu is out today for Nova (vs. St John's) due to a concussion he suffered in practice this week. We need Nova to keep beating the other middle of the road big east teams - hopefully he'll be back soon Nova could start their scrubs and easily beat this St John's team. Man I still have some residual 80s hate for them but they really need to get it together for the future of the BE.
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FLHoya
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Post by FLHoya on Jan 31, 2016 13:23:14 GMT -5
Realistically, we needed a split with Prov. So now we try and get it on the road where they place worse. We didn't lose much ground by losing. By not losing much ground, do you mean that our RPI stayed in the 70s? With our lack of good wins (aside from X) and our atrocious losses, we can't afford to tread water at this point. We were favored at home against a good (not great) team, and we failed to get a win that we needed. The more of these we botch, the more upsets we will have to pull (like @nova or @prov or home to Xavier) to even start thinking NCAAs. And we basically did tread water this week. We're #76 in RPI right on and per the WarrenNolan RPILive before today's games, that's a net 0 change from last Sunday. We cancelled out the small gain from the Creighton win. It's been said above, but right now if the BE is getting a fourth team, it's Seton Hall at 46. Butler is down to 70 (-22 in the past week), Creighton's 103 and Marquette's 112. That ain't good. I mean, SOMEBODY has to finish 4th, but it better not be a whole collection of tied 10-8 teams for the conference's sake.
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KHoyaNYC
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Post by KHoyaNYC on Jan 31, 2016 13:50:37 GMT -5
By not losing much ground, do you mean that our RPI stayed in the 70s? With our lack of good wins (aside from X) and our atrocious losses, we can't afford to tread water at this point. We were favored at home against a good (not great) team, and we failed to get a win that we needed. The more of these we botch, the more upsets we will have to pull (like @nova or @prov or home to Xavier) to even start thinking NCAAs. And we basically did tread water this week. We're #76 in RPI right on and per the WarrenNolan RPILive before today's games, that's a net 0 change from last Sunday. We cancelled out the small gain from the Creighton win. It's been said above, but right now if the BE is getting a fourth team, it's Seton Hall at 46. Butler is down to 70 (-22 in the past week), Creighton's 103 and Marquette's 112. That ain't good. I mean, SOMEBODY has to finish 4th, but it better not be a whole collection of tied 10-8 teams for the conference's sake. I am saying what I am saying - we didn't lose any ground. Our position didn't really get materially worse. But It didn't get better either. Given our team's performance and where other teams are in our conference, I did not expect to sweep Providence, so I was not surprised by the loss but by no means are the NCAAs dead yet.
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FLHoya
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Post by FLHoya on Jan 31, 2016 14:27:43 GMT -5
I am saying what I am saying - we didn't lose any ground. Our position didn't really get materially worse. But It didn't get better either. Given our team's performance and where other teams are in our conference, I did not expect to sweep Providence, so I was not surprised by the loss but by no means are the NCAAs dead yet. Our position did get worse though--instead of #76 with 11 regular season games left to improve, we're now #76 with 9 regular season games left to improve. And even if you didn't expect to sweep Providence, and even if Providence is winning more on the road this conference season, this was the easier of the two games on paper. Nothing's impossible, but the mountain gets steeper the longer we don't take some steps upward.
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KHoyaNYC
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Post by KHoyaNYC on Jan 31, 2016 14:36:47 GMT -5
I am saying what I am saying - we didn't lose any ground. Our position didn't really get materially worse. But It didn't get better either. Given our team's performance and where other teams are in our conference, I did not expect to sweep Providence, so I was not surprised by the loss but by no means are the NCAAs dead yet. Our position did get worse though--instead of #76 with 11 regular season games left to improve, we're now #76 with 9 regular season games left to improve. And even if you didn't expect to sweep Providence, and even if Providence is winning more on the road this conference season, this was the easier of the two games on paper. Nothing's impossible, but the mountain gets steeper the longer we don't take some steps upward. Funny but I think at Prov we will play better and have always liked our chances better there than at home. So never felt this was the easier one. And, yes, we have less games so fair to say we are worse off because of that but to go from talking what we need to do to make ncaas to kill this thread is not defensible (at least not yet talk to me after this week's games).
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hoya95
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Post by hoya95 on Jan 31, 2016 15:35:22 GMT -5
The only realistic way to get to 12-6 is to win the next three games, and then hopefully go 3-3 down the stretch. If we're in a position where we have to go on a run at Providence, home trying to beat Xavier twice, at Marquette and at Villanova, then it's all a pipe dream. So the next 8 days are our playoffs. They'll get tiny ratings and very few outside our fanbase will care, but it's all we've got.
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Post by puppydog100 on Jan 31, 2016 16:43:56 GMT -5
Not dead yet, just on life support. Need to go 6 and 3 in last 9 games, with one good win, against Providence, Xavier or Villanova, no bad losses, and a respectable showing in the BE Tournament, final four. I don't think BE will get more than 4 teams into the NCAA's, unless both Hoya's and Seton Hall have good runs in the last 9 games and in the BE Tourney, then maybe 5.
If I were a 1 to 4 seed in the NCAA Tourney, a first round game against the Hoya's would be a nightmare matchup. Hoya's seem to be more competitive against better teams. Not saying we would win, but would be competitive.
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Post by BeantownHoya on Jan 31, 2016 17:40:32 GMT -5
Not dead yet, just on life support. Need to go 6 and 3 in last 9 games, with one good win, against Providence, Xavier or Villanova, no bad losses, and a respectable showing in the BE Tournament, final four. I don't think BE will get more than 4 teams into the NCAA's, unless both Hoya's and Seton Hall have good runs in the last 9 games and in the BE Tourney, then maybe 5. If I were a 1 to 4 seed in the NCAA Tourney, a first round game against the Hoya's would be a nightmare matchup. Hoya's seem to be more competitive against better teams. Not saying we would win, but would be competitive. If you are 1 or 2 seed you are never playing us anyway. The 15 and 16 seeds will be autobids from mid major conferences, they would never be a bubble team. ....unless you are suggesting we win our first game of the tournament which is much bigger pipe dream right now then this already unlikely thread title.
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DallasHoya
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Post by DallasHoya on Jan 31, 2016 22:01:46 GMT -5
We have only one win against a currently ranked team, and only one additional win against a top 50 RPI team. I just don't see us getting another or winning road games at Butler, Marquette and Newark. On the other hand, maybe we can get an NIT game at McD. That would be a lot more fun than the best case scenario ending in another first round loss in the NCAAs.
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eagle54
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Post by eagle54 on Jan 31, 2016 22:10:23 GMT -5
We have only one win against a currently ranked team, and only one additional win against a top 50 RPI team. I just don't see us getting another or winning road games at Butler, Marquette and Newark. On the other hand, maybe we can get an NIT game at McD. That would be a lot more fun than the best case scenario ending in another first round loss in the NCAAs. Perhaps we could use that game to test out our new model of playing games there and only a handful at Verizon as Russky has suggested.
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Post by Lethal_Interjection on Feb 1, 2016 9:35:59 GMT -5
Have to win the BET, to get an invite to the Big Dance.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Feb 1, 2016 9:51:13 GMT -5
I am saying what I am saying - we didn't lose any ground. Our position didn't really get materially worse. But It didn't get better either. Given our team's performance and where other teams are in our conference, I did not expect to sweep Providence, so I was not surprised by the loss but by no means are the NCAAs dead yet. Our position did get worse though--instead of #76 with 11 regular season games left to improve, we're now #76 with 9 regular season games left to improve. And even if you didn't expect to sweep Providence, and even if Providence is winning more on the road this conference season, this was the easier of the two games on paper. Nothing's impossible, but the mountain gets steeper the longer we don't take some steps upward. Agreed that we are running out of opportunities, but we did get a little help in that Cuse jumped into the top 50 in the RPI after beating Notre Dame, so we now have two wins against the top 50.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Feb 1, 2016 9:53:14 GMT -5
Bringing this back from a previous post to remind people what the last four teams in actually look like.
The last four at large teams in 2014 (that did not have to go Dayton) were BYU, Arizona State, Dayton and Nebraska.
BYU 22-11 (15-6) RPI 30, SOS 24 3-6 v. Top 50 RPI teams Top 50 wins: @ Stanford (#40 RPI), v. Texas (#37 RPI) and v. Gonzaga (#19 RPI) Bad losses: @loyola Marymount (#180 RPI), @ Pepperdine (#159 RPI), @ Portland (#178 RPI), @ Pacific (#131 RPI)
Arizona State 21-11 (10-9) RPI 47, SOS 54 4-7 v. Top 50 RPI teams Top 50 wins: Colorado (#35 RPI), Oregon (#27 RPI), Arizona (#2 RPI), Stanford (#40 RPI) Bad losses: Miami (#110 RPI), Washington (#104 RPI), @ Oregon St (#101 RPI)
Dayton 23-10 (11-7) RPI 43, SOS 67 4-6 v. Top 50 RPI teams Top 50 wins: v. Gonzaga (#19 RPI), George Washington (#29 RPI), UMass (#23 RPI), @ St. Louis (#31 RPI) Bad losses: @ Illinois St. (#136 RPI), USC (#181 RPI), @ Rhode Island (#156 RPI)
Nebraska 19-12 (11-8) RPI 49, SOS 31 4-6 v. Top 50 RPI teams Top 50 wins: Ohio St. (#24 RPI), Minnesota (#48 RPI), @ Michigan St. (#17 RPI), Wisconsin (#6 RPI) Bad losses: UAB (#153 RPI), @ Purdue (#144 RPI), @ Penn St. (#116 RPI)
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Feb 1, 2016 9:55:53 GMT -5
And the last four at-large teams last year (not counting the teams sent to Dayton to the play-in game) which were Ohio State, Georgia, Texas and UCLA.
Ohio State 23-11 (12-8) RPI: 41, SOS 70 1-7 v. Top 50 RPI teams Top 50 wins: vs. Maryland (#13 RPI) Bad Losses: @ Michigan (#78 RPI) [None]
Texas 20-13 (9-11) RPI 42, SOS 16 2-10 v. Top 50 RPI teams Top 50 wins: vs. #10 Baylor and vs. #24 WVU Bad Loss: Stanford (#59 RPI) [None]
Georgia 21-11 (12-8) RPI 38, SOS 39 0-5 v. Top 50 RPI teams Best win: @ole Miss (RPI #60) Bad Losses: @georgia Tech (#154 RPI)
UCLA 20-13 (12-8) RPI 48, SOS 29 2-8 v. Top 50 RPI teams Top 50 Wins: vs. Utah (#19 RPI) and vs. Oregon (#27 RPI) Bad Losses: @colorado (#117 RPI), @ Oregon St. (#132 RPI), @ AZ St. (#102 RPI)
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Feb 1, 2016 9:58:14 GMT -5
I mean, if Nebraska got in with this record in 2014, is it really that unrealistic to think we'd sneak in with 11-7 and a BET win? We'd have one fewer bad loss, at most one fewer good win, a comparable RPI and a much better SOS.
Nebraska 19-12 (11-8) RPI 49, SOS 31 4-6 v. Top 50 RPI teams Top 50 wins: Ohio St. (#24 RPI), Minnesota (#48 RPI), @ Michigan St. (#17 RPI), Wisconsin (#6 RPI) Bad losses: UAB (#153 RPI), @ Purdue (#144 RPI), @ Penn St. (#116 RPI)
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Post by aleutianhoya on Feb 1, 2016 10:25:50 GMT -5
I mean, if Nebraska got in with this record in 2014, is it really that unrealistic to think we'd sneak in with 11-7 and a BET win? We'd have one fewer bad loss, at most one fewer good win, a comparable RPI and a much better SOS. Nebraska 19-12 (11-8) RPI 49, SOS 31 4-6 v. Top 50 RPI teams Top 50 wins: Ohio St. (#24 RPI), Minnesota (#48 RPI), @ Michigan St. (#17 RPI), Wisconsin (#6 RPI) Bad losses: UAB (#153 RPI), @ Purdue (#144 RPI), @ Penn St. (#116 RPI) Not crazy. But we'd be sweating for sure. By the way, though we would all want to be not among those sent to Dayton, obviously that's still better (by a lot) than making the NIT. So theres four participants worse than these you've highlighted.
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Post by manilahoyafan on Feb 1, 2016 10:32:58 GMT -5
I have a hard time believing that the BE will only have 3 teams in the dance. So the battle is for 4th and the overall record including OOC may well be meaningless. Who ever gets 4th is most likely in...though the BET might affect things.
If that is an accurate assessment, then our competition is the Hall and Creighton. We have a slightly better chance than they do to win 11 BE games overall as things stand today. Hold serve at home against X (should be) and Butler, SH and St John (will likely be)...which is not a stretch...and we just need a win on the road vs one of Butler, SH or Quette (conceding a loss @ Nova) to probably seal the deal...though the BET might affect things.
11 BE wins may actually be more than enough to reach the NCAAs. Once there, win 1 and then lose is probably who we are (a top 25-ish). Make the Sweet 16 and it's a good season. Next year we should be better than that.....
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Filo
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Post by Filo on Feb 1, 2016 10:33:11 GMT -5
Reflecting on this and taking into account what TBird posted, I still don't see this team making the tournament. We are 5-4 with 9 games remaining. We all keep hoping something clicks and they really turn things on, but based on the way they have played so far, I don't think it is going to happen. I can't see them going better than 5-4 over the remaining games, which would be 10-8, and I have a really hard time seeing them go 6-3.
02/02: at Butler and 02/06 at Seton Hall – Realistic chance of losing both of these. Maybe win 1 of the 2? If we win both, then maybe I get a little more optimistic. If we lose to Butler, then at Seton Hall is a must-win. 02/08: ST. JOHN'S - Probable win 02/13: at Providence - Chance that we can pull this one off? 02/17: SETON HALL - Should be a win 02/20: XAVIER - Probable loss 02/27: BUTLER - Should be a win 03/01: at Marquette - I think this is a probable loss. Marquette is playing better and they are tough at home. 03/05: at Villanova – Loss
I hate being pessimistic, but this team just doesn’t inspire a lot of faith…
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