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Post by williambraskyiii on Feb 26, 2015 10:55:30 GMT -5
We're probably on the 6 line right now and there's not much of a difference between the 5 and the 6 line. You're playing an at-large-worthy team that's between 40-50 in the country. You really just want to dodge the play-in game because you're basically twice as likely to draw a team better than their resume. If you can get up to the 4, now you're out of the at larges and into automatic qualifiers and the opponent talent level starts dropping quickly. In the last 3 tournaments in the "second" round, 12 seeds are 8-4 (!) against 5s, 13 seeds are 2-10, and 14 seeds are 2-10 (15 seeds are incidentally 3-9 but don't try to name them). The drop in opening round opponent difficulty when moving from the 5 to the 4 line is huge. If you get down to the 7 line, the 10 isn't going to be much better than the 11, but your second round is probably tougher. Though it's no sure thing they advance, assuming the better seeded opponent did win, would you rather face a draw of (from BracketMatrix) Villanova/Wisconsin/Arizona/Kansas or Iowa State/Oklahoma/Utah/Maryland? The correct here is of course that you would love to face Maryland. If you are on the 7 line, that isn't happening. So by staying on the 6 instead of the 7, you're probably facing a much lesser first weekend opponent. From our friends (probably someone from ESPN ) at wikipedia: "Georgetown is the only team to ever lose in five consecutive tournament appearances against a team seeded at least 5 spots lower: 2008: Lost as a #2 seed to #10 Davidson. 2010: Lost as a #3 seed to #14 Ohio. 2011: Lost as a #6 seed to #11 VCU 2012: Lost as a #3 seed to #11 NC State. 2013: Lost as a #2 seed to #15 Florida Gulf Coast." 2009 & 2014 were NIT years. Given our awful recent history, GU: 1. should be glad we made (almost 100%) the NCAAs this year. 2. should not care which # seed we are or which # seed we play. 3. should not believe our team's or opponent's seeding. 3. should not look past the first game or at the rest of the bracket. 4. should study tape of the first opponent for the next four days after the NCAA Sunday Selection Show. 5. should practice FTs. That truly hurts my heart. Please, spare my heart this year, Georgetown. Do it for my heart.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Feb 26, 2015 10:57:13 GMT -5
Seriously, that made me cry a little.
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Buckets
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Post by Buckets on Feb 26, 2015 11:35:52 GMT -5
We're probably on the 6 line right now and there's not much of a difference between the 5 and the 6 line. You're playing an at-large-worthy team that's between 40-50 in the country. You really just want to dodge the play-in game because you're basically twice as likely to draw a team better than their resume. If you can get up to the 4, now you're out of the at larges and into automatic qualifiers and the opponent talent level starts dropping quickly. In the last 3 tournaments in the "second" round, 12 seeds are 8-4 (!) against 5s, 13 seeds are 2-10, and 14 seeds are 2-10 (15 seeds are incidentally 3-9 but don't try to name them). The drop in opening round opponent difficulty when moving from the 5 to the 4 line is huge. If you get down to the 7 line, the 10 isn't going to be much better than the 11, but your second round is probably tougher. Though it's no sure thing they advance, assuming the better seeded opponent did win, would you rather face a draw of (from BracketMatrix) Villanova/Wisconsin/Arizona/Kansas or Iowa State/Oklahoma/Utah/Maryland? The correct here is of course that you would love to face Maryland. If you are on the 7 line, that isn't happening. So by staying on the 6 instead of the 7, you're probably facing a much lesser first weekend opponent. From our friends (probably someone from ESPN ) at wikipedia: "Georgetown is the only team to ever lose in five consecutive tournament appearances against a team seeded at least 5 spots lower: 2008: Lost as a #2 seed to #10 Davidson. 2010: Lost as a #3 seed to #14 Ohio. 2011: Lost as a #6 seed to #11 VCU 2012: Lost as a #3 seed to #11 NC State. 2013: Lost as a #2 seed to #15 Florida Gulf Coast." 2009 & 2014 were NIT years. Given our awful recent history, GU: 1. should be glad we made (almost 100%) the NCAAs this year. 2. should not care which # seed we are or which # seed we play. 3. should not believe our team's or opponent's seeding. 3. should not look past the first game or at the rest of the bracket. 4. should study tape of the first opponent for the next four days after the NCAA Sunday Selection Show. 5. should practice FTs. This is all true, and it's actually fairly easy to imagine this team going down the way all of those teams went down. Our big man's propensity to pick up fouls for just being big and hard hedging 20 feet from the basket biting us in the ass (2008), our mediocre defensive guards getting pick-and-rolled to death (2010), our point guard getting injured and the offense entirely falling apart (2011), losing a weekend game we should win but to a still decent team in a loss that happens from time to time (2012), or our offensive standout not leaving the floor after Valentine's Day and just looking like his legs aren't under his jumper in the tournament (2013). All that said, the better the seed, the less likely your early opponents are to take advantage of any of these shortcomings or whoever's having an off night. This is a different set of guys from those teams (okay like half the minutes in FGCU were played by DSR/Trawick/Hopkins/Bowen).
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Feb 26, 2015 13:00:28 GMT -5
From our friends (probably someone from ESPN ) at wikipedia: "Georgetown is the only team to ever lose in five consecutive tournament appearances against a team seeded at least 5 spots lower: 2008: Lost as a #2 seed to #10 Davidson. 2010: Lost as a #3 seed to #14 Ohio. 2011: Lost as a #6 seed to #11 VCU 2012: Lost as a #3 seed to #11 NC State. 2013: Lost as a #2 seed to #15 Florida Gulf Coast." 2009 & 2014 were NIT years. I realize this is true literally, but for an outside reader it's misleading. Georgetown hasn't lost 5 games in a row to double-digit seeds, which is what most people would probably take away from this. I realize the fact that we beat Belmont in 2012 doesn't matter to most people, but we did beat a double-digit seed that year (not to mention we beat non-NCAA team West Virginia last year in the NIT). The idea that we cannot beat a double-digit seed is silly, anyway. There's nothing inherent about Georgetown that prevents us from winning those games. I won't go into the games, since that's been discussed ad nauseum, but the VCU game I especially have no problem with. VCU made the Final Four and we were playing without one of our key players being healthy. It's hard to feel bad about that one. Ohio and FGCU, on the other hand, were just awful.
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prhoya
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Post by prhoya on Feb 26, 2015 13:24:24 GMT -5
The statement is clear: it's "five consecutive appearances", not "5 games in a row". The wikipedia poster just did not mention the round of 64 or 32.
The idea that we cannot beat a double-digit seed is silly? It's not an idea; by now it's a trend. We have to win games for it to go away.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Feb 26, 2015 13:26:03 GMT -5
The statement is clear: it's "five consecutive appearances", not "5 games in a row". The wikipedia poster just did not mention the round of 64 or 32. The idea that we cannot beat a double-digit seed is silly? It's not an idea; by now it's a trend. We have to win games for it to go away. I mean, it's silly in that we've done so twice since 2008.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Feb 26, 2015 13:40:26 GMT -5
Let's face it, we can rationalize it all we want, but if it happens again this year, like pr said, I doubt we will feel better because of the logic that it wasnt really 6 games in a row.
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This Just In
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Post by This Just In on Feb 26, 2015 13:58:58 GMT -5
The statement is clear: it's "five consecutive appearances", not "5 games in a row". The wikipedia poster just did not mention the round of 64 or 32. The idea that we cannot beat a double-digit seed is silly? It's not an idea; by now it's a trend. We have to win games for it to go away. There are 3 other teams that have the NCAA reputation that Georgetown now carries of under achieving in the Dance.... Temple, Notre Dame, and Villanova. Georgetown fans want to see Notre Dame in the NCAA's and Notre Dame fans want to see Georgetown in the NCCA's, someone is leaving that game disappointed.
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sleepy
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Post by sleepy on Feb 26, 2015 14:05:57 GMT -5
Hey, think positive everyone, maybe we will finish this season poorly enough to not have to face a double digit seed this year!
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Post by homeonthehilltop on Feb 26, 2015 15:13:05 GMT -5
You have to be a pretty strong program to face teams ranked at least 5 spots below you on that many consecutive occasions. It's not like 9 seeds are facing 15 seeds much.
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Filo
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Post by Filo on Feb 26, 2015 15:18:16 GMT -5
The statement is clear: it's "five consecutive appearances", not "5 games in a row". The wikipedia poster just did not mention the round of 64 or 32. The idea that we cannot beat a double-digit seed is silly? It's not an idea; by now it's a trend. We have to win games for it to go away. Everyone knows the history. Stats like that make me laugh, though. I mean, a team seeded at least 5 spots lower? Let's pick an arbitrary cut-off to make the point...
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Feb 26, 2015 15:59:47 GMT -5
This year seeding is basically irrelevant. It doesn't matter if we're a 3,4,5,6,7. What matters is that we're not in kentuckys bracket and we have a clearer path to the second weekend and then dare say the final four. We can beat any other team when we're on and more than capable of going on a winning streak in the tournament. Disagree. 3 is substantially a better seed than 4/5. 6/7 is arguably better than 4/5 as well. 4/5 is terrible this year given that the #1 seeds (especially Kentucky) are head and shoulders above the rest.
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Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Feb 26, 2015 17:28:15 GMT -5
From our friends (probably someone from ESPN ) at wikipedia: "Georgetown is the only team to ever lose in five consecutive tournament appearances against a team seeded at least 5 spots lower: 2008: Lost as a #2 seed to #10 Davidson. 2010: Lost as a #3 seed to #14 Ohio. 2011: Lost as a #6 seed to #11 VCU 2012: Lost as a #3 seed to #11 NC State. 2013: Lost as a #2 seed to #15 Florida Gulf Coast." 2009 & 2014 were NIT years. Given our awful recent history, GU: 1. should be glad we made (almost 100%) the NCAAs this year. 2. should not care which # seed we are or which # seed we play. 3. should not believe our team's or opponent's seeding. 3. should not look past the first game or at the rest of the bracket. 4. should study tape of the first opponent for the next four days after the NCAA Sunday Selection Show. 5. should practice FTs. That truly hurts my heart. Please, spare my heart this year, Georgetown. Do it for my heart. Included on that list are: 1. The best #15 seed in the history of the NCAA tournament. 2. One of only 3 #11 seeds to ever make the Final Four. 3. The only #10 seed in NCAA tournament history to both a) have a future multi-time NBA All Star on the roster, and b) get to play its second-round game in its home state. [Note: that this is the only time this has happened is unconfirmed.] 4. A #14 seed that two years later went to the Sweet Sixteen as a #13 seed. None of these things excuse any of these losses, but they are a part of the story and present strong evidence that--among the many (no there isn't just 1) factors going into this brutal streak is exceedingly bad luck with the bracket draw.
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hoyarooter
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Post by hoyarooter on Feb 26, 2015 21:29:36 GMT -5
This year seeding is basically irrelevant. It doesn't matter if we're a 3,4,5,6,7. What matters is that we're not in kentuckys bracket and we have a clearer path to the second weekend and then dare say the final four. We can beat any other team when we're on and more than capable of going on a winning streak in the tournament. True. Of course, we're also capable of losing to a school that none of us have even heard of yet. We can beat Wisconsin. Or we can lose to Montana Inland University College. The full name of that school is Hannah Montana Island University College. All the players wear blonde wigs, and they can still beat us.
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hoyainspirit
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Post by hoyainspirit on Feb 28, 2015 0:19:11 GMT -5
Relax, y'all. This season, we got this.
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This Just In
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Post by This Just In on Mar 2, 2015 22:50:58 GMT -5
Updated March 2 by Joe LunardiGeorgetown is still a 6th Seed but has been moved from the South Bracket to the West Bracket to face AAC's #11 Tulsa and then if the brackets hold the Hoyas will take on #3 Iowa St.
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Post by sleepyjackson21 on Mar 2, 2015 23:33:05 GMT -5
We're an interesting case because we only have 6 top 100 wins. VCU is a 7 seed and they have 10 top 100 wins. LSU a projected 10 seed and they have 11 top 100 wins. We really don't have that many great things on the resume. Of course, we don't have anything even remotely bad either. All of our losses are to top 50 rpi teams and we've played one of the hardest schedules in the country. It'll be interesting to see where the committee seeds us.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Mar 2, 2015 23:53:22 GMT -5
We're an interesting case because we only have 6 top 100 wins. VCU is a 7 seed and they have 10 top 100 wins. LSU a projected 10 seed and they have 11 top 100 wins. We really don't have that many great things on the resume. Of course, we don't have anything even remotely bad either. All of our losses are to top 50 rpi teams and we've played one of the hardest schedules in the country. It'll be interesting to see where the committee seeds us. Why would the committee, or anyone, value a win over #99, a win over #49 and a win over #1 equally? I don't bother with the RPI, but VCU has only 4 Top 50 wins, There's a reason they break them into Top 25, Top 50 and so on...
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Post by sleepyjackson21 on Mar 3, 2015 2:54:40 GMT -5
Obviously they wouldn't value them equally. But everything is part of the puzzle. And the fact remains that we don't have that many great positives on the resume. Villanova and Butler, great wins. Indiana and St johns, solid wins. After that, well, not much. Not a single good road win. But as i pointed out above, we also don't have one negative thing on the resume. Not one. Every one of our losses is to a top 50 team. That's worth something. Kansas, Wisconsin and Arizona all have worse losses and they are projected 2 seeds. I'm just playing skeptic and thinking of things the committee might hold against us.
Btw, I didn't mean to imply that VCU or LSU should be seeded ahead of us. They have some horrible losses counteracting all those solid wins.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 3, 2015 9:22:23 GMT -5
I think we are on a course to play UMCP in the tourney.
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