Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2015 12:44:39 GMT -5
Seed doesn’t matter, matchup does… Hoping for some good pairings this season, that is all And seeding helps to determine your matchup if not mistaken Yeah but it doesn’t mean If we are a 5 seed our matchup will be more favorable than the matchup we get as a 6… The opponent is all that matters to me
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rockhoya
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Post by rockhoya on Feb 25, 2015 12:47:26 GMT -5
And seeding helps to determine your matchup if not mistaken Yeah but it doesn’t mean If we are a 5 seed our matchup will be more favorable than the matchup we get as a 6… The opponent is all that matters to me Yeah but the difference between a 4 seed and an 8 is pretty significant and seems a realistic realm of our potential seeding depending on how the season plays out.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2015 13:05:31 GMT -5
Yeah but it doesn’t mean If we are a 5 seed our matchup will be more favorable than the matchup we get as a 6… The opponent is all that matters to me Yeah but the difference between a 4 seed and an 8 is pretty significant and seems a realistic realm of our potential seeding depending on how the season plays out. Ehhh more likely to be in the 5-7 range and no matter where you fall in that range (4-8) you could have a good matchup or bad one… For instance a team like Ucla or Texas which has top 10 talent and a ton of size could be one of those opponents for a 4 seed first round, while Dayton might be a first round matchup for a 6 seed. Who would you prefer?
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Cambridge
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Post by Cambridge on Feb 25, 2015 14:40:58 GMT -5
Yeah but the difference between a 4 seed and an 8 is pretty significant and seems a realistic realm of our potential seeding depending on how the season plays out. Ehhh more likely to be in the 5-7 range and no matter where you fall in that range (4-8) you could have a good matchup or bad one… For instance a team like Ucla or Texas which has top 10 talent and a ton of size could be one of those opponents for a 4 seed first round, while Dayton might be a first round matchup for a 6 seed. Who would you prefer? UCLA for one very large reason.
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Post by HometownHoya on Feb 25, 2015 16:48:19 GMT -5
Ehhh more likely to be in the 5-7 range and no matter where you fall in that range (4-8) you could have a good matchup or bad one… For instance a team like Ucla or Texas which has top 10 talent and a ton of size could be one of those opponents for a 4 seed first round, while Dayton might be a first round matchup for a 6 seed. Who would you prefer? UCLA for one very large reason. So you want to see the week of coverage over Josh's physical change? An accurate current weight will be released and before and after photos will lead every SC segment.
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prhoya
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Post by prhoya on Feb 25, 2015 16:53:37 GMT -5
UCLA for one very large reason. So you want to see the week of coverage over Josh's physical change? An accurate current weight will be released and before and after photos will lead every SC segment. Good exposure for JT3 and GU bigs...
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Post by HometownHoya on Feb 25, 2015 16:58:37 GMT -5
So you want to see the week of coverage over Josh's physical change? An accurate current weight will be released and before and after photos will lead every SC segment. Good exposure for JT3 and GU bigs... Sorry, I forgot the wink. It would be great. I just think it'll be funny how overblown it would become as one of the early tournament story lines for Disney.
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richfame
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Post by richfame on Feb 26, 2015 6:17:55 GMT -5
This year seeding is basically irrelevant. It doesn't matter if we're a 3,4,5,6,7. What matters is that we're not in kentuckys bracket and we have a clearer path to the second weekend and then dare say the final four. We can beat any other team when we're on and more than capable of going on a winning streak in the tournament.
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Post by strummer8526 on Feb 26, 2015 7:17:05 GMT -5
This year seeding is basically irrelevant. It doesn't matter if we're a 3,4,5,6,7. What matters is that we're not in kentuckys bracket and we have a clearer path to the second weekend and then dare say the final four. We can beat any other team when we're on and more than capable of going on a winning streak in the tournament. True. Of course, we're also capable of losing to a school that none of us have even heard of yet. We can beat Wisconsin. Or we can lose to Montana Inland University College.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Feb 26, 2015 8:29:00 GMT -5
I think we still have a lot to play for seeding-wise. It's not like the 4-6 seeds are locked in. Look at VCU, who are nose diving. I'd really like to get out of that 6-7 range where we could be playing some talented team that under-performed all year. I agree that we can make any team look good, but seeding does matter. I'd rather be a 4-5 seed. It's also the fact that 6-7 seed likely plays a top 10 team in the next round.
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NCHoya
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Post by NCHoya on Feb 26, 2015 9:18:02 GMT -5
Historically, hasn't the 5 seed been the worst position for a higher ranked seed? The 12s are often the play-in game guys who already won a game or a team that was the last team in off the bubble. I am not sure that is a great position to be in, I would like to avoid the pay-in game winner, I actually think that is a disadvantage for the higher seed who is likely going to be more tight to start that game.
Now, the 4 seed would be terrific, but that means the Hoyas have likely won out.
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This Just In
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Post by This Just In on Feb 26, 2015 9:39:35 GMT -5
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Post by aleutianhoya on Feb 26, 2015 9:42:06 GMT -5
Historically, hasn't the 5 seed been the worst position for a higher ranked seed? The 12s are often the play-in game guys who already won a game or a team that was the last team in off the bubble. I am not sure that is a great position to be in, I would like to avoid the pay-in game winner, I actually think that is a disadvantage for the higher seed who is likely going to be more tight to start that game. Now, the 4 seed would be terrific, but that means the Hoyas have likely won out. Even if they say they don't, the committee over the years has shown that it absolutely credits teams that go into the NCAAT on a role -- in years we've gotten to the final of or won the BET, that performance has positively affected our seed (and probably led to us being overseeded, making the subsequent upset look all the worse). I think we'd be a four seed without question if we won out -- and maybe higher (assuming one win is over Nova). I think we'd be a four if we go 2-1 but then win the BET. Either way, the bottom line is that we want to be playing well going into it because that makes it more likely we'll play well once there. And regardless of how well we're playing or what our seed is, our first round matchup is going to scare us. It is, almost by definition, going to be either: (1) a major conference team that has lost a bunch of games but also has beaten good teams -- scary; (2) a mid-major type conference champion that is obviously capable of a win (think Davidson or Harvard -- scary); (3) a minor conference team that was dominant in its conference but lost its conference tourney in an upset, but snuck into the field (scary); or (4) a minor conference champion, but one that is actually pretty good, because the bad ones will be 14-16 seeds -- that's scary too. Unless you're a 1 or a 2 seed (and increasingly, unless you're a 1 seed, particularly if there aren't many upsets in small conferences), you're going to be playing a competent team that can beat you. Better to be seeded higher, of course, but the bigger advantage isn't (in my mind) in the first round but rather in the next round because you're less likely to play a truly elite team.
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Buckets
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Post by Buckets on Feb 26, 2015 9:49:23 GMT -5
We're probably on the 6 line right now and there's not much of a difference between the 5 and the 6 line. You're playing an at-large-worthy team that's between 40-50 in the country. You really just want to dodge the play-in game because you're basically twice as likely to draw a team better than their resume.
If you can get up to the 4, now you're out of the at larges and into automatic qualifiers and the opponent talent level starts dropping quickly. In the last 3 tournaments in the "second" round, 12 seeds are 8-4 (!) against 5s, 13 seeds are 2-10, and 14 seeds are 2-10 (15 seeds are incidentally 3-9 but don't try to name them). The drop in opening round opponent difficulty when moving from the 5 to the 4 line is huge.
If you get down to the 7 line, the 10 isn't going to be much better than the 11, but your second round is probably tougher. Though it's no sure thing they advance, assuming the better seeded opponent did win, would you rather face a draw of (from BracketMatrix) Villanova/Wisconsin/Arizona/Kansas or Iowa State/Oklahoma/Utah/Maryland? The correct here is of course that you would love to face Maryland. If you are on the 7 line, that isn't happening. So by staying on the 6 instead of the 7, you're probably facing a much lesser first weekend opponent.
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aristides
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Post by aristides on Feb 26, 2015 9:51:05 GMT -5
So you're saying the Hoyas are likely to play a good team in the tourney? Damn you NCAA committee!!
;-)
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This Just In
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Post by This Just In on Feb 26, 2015 10:03:49 GMT -5
Historically, hasn't the 5 seed been the worst position for a higher ranked seed? The 12s are often the play-in game guys who already won a game or a team that was the last team in off the bubble. I am not sure that is a great position to be in, I would like to avoid the pay-in game winner, I actually think that is a disadvantage for the higher seed who is likely going to be more tight to start that game. Now, the 4 seed would be terrific, but that means the Hoyas have likely won out. Even if they say they don't, the committee over the years has shown that it absolutely credits teams that go into the NCAAT on a role -- in years we've gotten to the final of or won the BET, that performance has positively affected our seed (and probably led to us being overseeded, making the subsequent upset look all the worse). I think we'd be a four seed without question if we won out -- and maybe higher (assuming one win is over Nova). I think we'd be a four if we go 2-1 but then win the BET. Either way, the bottom line is that we want to be playing well going into it because that makes it more likely we'll play well once there. And regardless of how well we're playing or what our seed is, our first round matchup is going to scare us. It is, almost by definition, going to be either: (1) a major conference team that has lost a bunch of games but also has beaten good teams -- scary; (2) a mid-major type conference champion that is obviously capable of a win (think Davidson or Harvard -- scary); (3) a minor conference team that was dominant in its conference but lost its conference tourney in an upset, but snuck into the field (scary); or (4) a minor conference champion, but one that is actually pretty good, because the bad ones will be 14-16 seeds -- that's scary too. Unless you're a 1 or a 2 seed (and increasingly, unless you're a 1 seed, particularly if there aren't many upsets in small conferences), you're going to be playing a competent team that can beat you. Better to be seeded higher, of course, but the bigger advantage isn't (in my mind) in the first round but rather in the next round because you're less likely to play a truly elite team. Under JTIII there has been only 2 times when Georgetown got to the BET Finals and lost. 2008 (27-5 Record, 15-3 BE Record), Lost to Pitt in BET Finals and got an NCAA #2 Seed. 2nd rd loss to Davidson in the NCAA's. Do you think this team was over seeded? 2010 (23-11 Record, 10-8 BE Record), Lost to W. Virginia in the BET Finals and got an NCAA #3 Seed. 1st rd loss to Ohio in the NCAA's. Do you think this team was over seeded?
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Cambridge
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Post by Cambridge on Feb 26, 2015 10:05:09 GMT -5
Historically, hasn't the 5 seed been the worst position for a higher ranked seed? The 12s are often the play-in game guys who already won a game or a team that was the last team in off the bubble. I am not sure that is a great position to be in, I would like to avoid the pay-in game winner, I actually think that is a disadvantage for the higher seed who is likely going to be more tight to start that game. Now, the 4 seed would be terrific, but that means the Hoyas have likely won out. Even if they say they don't, the committee over the years has shown that it absolutely credits teams that go into the NCAAT on a role -- in years we've gotten to the final of or won the BET, that performance has positively affected our seed (and probably led to us being overseeded, making the subsequent upset look all the worse). I think we'd be a four seed without question if we won out -- and maybe higher (assuming one win is over Nova). I think we'd be a four if we go 2-1 but then win the BET. Either way, the bottom line is that we want to be playing well going into it because that makes it more likely we'll play well once there. And regardless of how well we're playing or what our seed is, our first round matchup is going to scare us. It is, almost by definition, going to be either: (1) a major conference team that has lost a bunch of games but also has beaten good teams -- scary; (2) a mid-major type conference champion that is obviously capable of a win (think Davidson or Harvard -- scary); (3) a minor conference team that was dominant in its conference but lost its conference tourney in an upset, but snuck into the field (scary); or (4) a minor conference champion, but one that is actually pretty good, because the bad ones will be 14-16 seeds -- that's scary too. Unless you're a 1 or a 2 seed (and increasingly, unless you're a 1 seed, particularly if there aren't many upsets in small conferences), you're going to be playing a competent team that can beat you. Better to be seeded higher, of course, but the bigger advantage isn't (in my mind) in the first round but rather in the next round because you're less likely to play a truly elite team. I agree...not that I believe the team will actually do it, but if Georgetown won out a 4 seed is the floor. That would mean they got a W @ SJU (32), W @ Butler (25), W v Seton Hall (68) to finish the season which would almost certainly make Georgetown a #2 seed in BET. Then, Georgetown would likely face DePaul (158), then Providence (22), then Villanova (4) which would make Georgetown 24-8 (16-5 in BE+BET) with an RPI of 10 and a SOS of 3. Even if you swap out DePaul and Providence for Marquette and Xavier...you end up in the same place. I think at that point, we would likely be a 3 seed, but almost certainly a 4.
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Feb 26, 2015 10:16:05 GMT -5
This year seeding is basically irrelevant. It doesn't matter if we're a 3,4,5,6,7. What matters is that we're not in kentuckys bracket and we have a clearer path to the second weekend and then dare say the final four. We can beat any other team when we're on and more than capable of going on a winning streak in the tournament. True. Of course, we're also capable of losing to a school that none of us have even heard of yet. We can beat Wisconsin. Or we can lose to Montana Inland University College. The MIUC Rustlets can absolutely shoot the 3, and love to run and gun - especially gun.
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prhoya
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Post by prhoya on Feb 26, 2015 10:41:40 GMT -5
We're probably on the 6 line right now and there's not much of a difference between the 5 and the 6 line. You're playing an at-large-worthy team that's between 40-50 in the country. You really just want to dodge the play-in game because you're basically twice as likely to draw a team better than their resume. If you can get up to the 4, now you're out of the at larges and into automatic qualifiers and the opponent talent level starts dropping quickly. In the last 3 tournaments in the "second" round, 12 seeds are 8-4 (!) against 5s, 13 seeds are 2-10, and 14 seeds are 2-10 (15 seeds are incidentally 3-9 but don't try to name them). The drop in opening round opponent difficulty when moving from the 5 to the 4 line is huge. If you get down to the 7 line, the 10 isn't going to be much better than the 11, but your second round is probably tougher. Though it's no sure thing they advance, assuming the better seeded opponent did win, would you rather face a draw of (from BracketMatrix) Villanova/Wisconsin/Arizona/Kansas or Iowa State/Oklahoma/Utah/Maryland? The correct here is of course that you would love to face Maryland. If you are on the 7 line, that isn't happening. So by staying on the 6 instead of the 7, you're probably facing a much lesser first weekend opponent. From our friends (probably someone from ESPN ) at wikipedia: "Georgetown is the only team to ever lose in five consecutive tournament appearances against a team seeded at least 5 spots lower: 2008: Lost as a #2 seed to #10 Davidson. 2010: Lost as a #3 seed to #14 Ohio. 2011: Lost as a #6 seed to #11 VCU 2012: Lost as a #3 seed to #11 NC State. 2013: Lost as a #2 seed to #15 Florida Gulf Coast." 2009 & 2014 were NIT years. Given our awful recent history, GU: 1. should be glad we made (almost 100%) the NCAAs this year. 2. should not care which # seed we are or which # seed we play. 3. should not believe our team's or opponent's seeding. 3. should not look past the first game or at the rest of the bracket. 4. should study tape of the first opponent for the next four days after the NCAA Sunday Selection Show. 5. should practice FTs.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Feb 26, 2015 10:50:25 GMT -5
When we played VCU, they were the 11 and we were the 6 and they won the play in. So, it's not necessarily that the 12 is the hot play in team. I agree that there may not be that much of a difference between 5-6, but all things being equal, getting up to 4-5 will be better for us.
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