|
Post by aleutianhoya on Feb 4, 2015 10:51:00 GMT -5
I know it's par for the course given the source, but I love how there are multiple comments on that Bubble Watch for BE teams having "inflated RPIs" because they decided not to play cupcakes in the OOC and actually play in a difficult conference, and so because of that they get docked in terms of what category they fall in (lock vs. should be in vs. work to do). For example, what is the difference between us and Northern Iowa that causes us to be divided into two different categories? Every year we talk about bubble teams being left out of the tourney because they didn't challenge themselves from a scheduling perspective. Shouldn't these teams be getting credit for going out and actually playing quality teams? My guess is that the committee will do exactly that. And finally, for those who still haven't found their way to this site, I suggest you do so we don't have to start entire threads on why "Bracketologist X has a negative bias towards us, so let me talk about why I think Bracketologist X sucks." It's not worth the aggravation. www.bracketmatrix.comYeah, it makes complete sense to schedule a bunch of hard teams in OOC. Even if each team only wins 1-2 games, our entire conference benefits and that is exactly what is happening. It's also a factor of having only a 10 team conference, which was one of the reasons I liked our move. OTOH, I do have to agree that by the eye test, Im not so sure that the BE is as good as the RPIs indicate. Im pretty surprised that SJU and SHU are in the top 50 and Xavier in the top 25. I dont know about that. That said, the goal is to find a way to get your conference as many teams in the tourney as possible. Last year, the A10 has 6, I think, and everyone complained, but it did give Dayton a chance to go deep. That's what we need. Of course, Gtown is going to be that team! I'll go one further: To me, the only thing better than having a bunch of truly great teams is to be thought of as having "inflated RPIs." That's terrific -- not something to complain about. It means that even if the teams aren't really all that good, we're getting credit for beating really good teams when we beat them (and it's more likely we'll beat them if they're not really as good as their RPI would suggest). And it means those inflated teams are more likely to get a bid than if they were ranked according to a more objective measure. Gaming the system is exactly what we should be doing. The only downside would be if teams lose en mass in the NCAAs because they're not really all that good, but I'll take that potential negative if it means more teams in the field. A lot of teams (ourselves included) have gotten good RPI numbers by beating all of the middling teams we play and playing relatively few bad ones. Again, that's what we should be doing! But it's a fair and nuanced criticism to say that when we've played the best teams on our schedule (say, top 50 teams), we're 3-6. That's considerably worse than Nova and Butler, for example. Indeed, among the major conference teams rated ahead of us in the RPI, only Utah and UNC have losing records against the top 50. Again, not a shot against us certainly (and obviously a nuanced analysis would note -- as the bubble watch guy does! -- that we've played very well in some tough losses against those top teams). As for whether a .500 record in conference would do it, well, if we can't do better than 2-6 in our last eight games we don't deserve a bid (even though we still possibly would get one...). Realistically, I think going 3-5 would wrap it up.
|
|
|
Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Feb 4, 2015 10:59:46 GMT -5
When thinking about record, do not forget about the Big East tournament, as well. Even if we went 9-9, if we won a game at the BET, and then lost, we'd be 10-10. Granted, I don't think that's appreciably better, but it would give us one more win.
|
|
This Just In
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Bold Prediction: The Hoyas will win at least 1 BE game in 2023.
Posts: 10,592
|
Post by This Just In on Feb 8, 2015 11:40:09 GMT -5
This is update as of Feb. 5thAs a 6th seed the Hoyas would face #11 Colorado St. and then a rematch of the 2007 Regional Finals vs North Carolina for a chance to go to the Sweet Sixteen
|
|
|
Post by aleutianhoya on Feb 9, 2015 17:31:23 GMT -5
Note that we remain a six seed in Lunardi's bracket released today -- precisely the same seed line we held at this point last week. In other words, while we obviously missed opportunities to solidify or improve our lot (no argument from me there), the two losses this week didn't drop us at all.
Losses this week would be difference since the competition is statistically worse. But it's important to note that nothing happens in a vacuum and that many of the teams around us all have bad losses and losing streaks, too.
|
|
TBird41
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
"Roy! I Love All 7'2" of you Roy!"
Posts: 8,740
|
Post by TBird41 on Feb 9, 2015 18:12:56 GMT -5
Note that we remain a six seed in Lunardi's bracket released today -- precisely the same seed line we held at this point last week. In other words, while we obviously missed opportunities to solidify or improve our lot (no argument from me there), the two losses this week didn't drop us at all. Losses this week would be difference since the competition is statistically worse. But it's important to note that nothing happens in a vacuum and that many of the teams around us all have bad losses and losing streaks, too. What? No. You can only make the field of 68 if you measure up against the platonic ideal of a tournament team, based solely on the eye test. "Nothing happens in a vacuum"--that's just crazy talk. It's like you think they have to take 68 teams or something.
|
|
This Just In
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Bold Prediction: The Hoyas will win at least 1 BE game in 2023.
Posts: 10,592
|
Post by This Just In on Feb 14, 2015 15:09:36 GMT -5
Hoyas are Seeded #6 and would have to face #11 LSU, then face #3 Notre Dame if the Seeding held true.
|
|
Big Dog
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,912
|
Post by Big Dog on Feb 14, 2015 15:53:49 GMT -5
Hoyas are Seeded #6 and would have to face #11 LSU, then face #3 Notre Dame if the Seeding held true.
Please please please please please please please can we have the opportunity to face Mike Brey in the tournament.
|
|
This Just In
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Bold Prediction: The Hoyas will win at least 1 BE game in 2023.
Posts: 10,592
|
Post by This Just In on Feb 16, 2015 22:22:32 GMT -5
Feb 16th, Updated Bracketology Though idle for a week, the Hoyas have fallen from #6 Seed to #7 Seed. The 1st rd match up would be vs. #10 Temple then if Seeds hold true the Hoyas would face #2 Kansas (this would not be a favorable match up).
|
|
GIGAFAN99
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,487
|
Post by GIGAFAN99 on Feb 17, 2015 6:54:56 GMT -5
Finish strong and the Hoyas will be between 3 and 6 and that's perfectly fine. The seeding margins are extremely tight this year so there will be plenty of second (third) round matchups where the lower seed is actually a slight favorite.
|
|
hoyazeke
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,814
|
Post by hoyazeke on Feb 17, 2015 9:28:44 GMT -5
Feb 16th, Updated Bracketology Though idle for a week, the Hoyas have fallen from #6 Seed to #7 Seed. The 1st rd match up would be vs. #10 Temple then if Seeds hold true the Hoyas would face #2 Kansas (this would not be a favorable match up). Why would KU not be a favorable matchup? We played them close and that was pre-Ike. The only teams that I wouldn't want to meet early are UK, Duke or Nova. UK's length would cause us problems and Duke and Nova can really shoot the 3 with a lot of different people.
|
|
GUJook97
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,445
|
Post by GUJook97 on Feb 17, 2015 10:08:48 GMT -5
I didn't realize we had another week off after playing DePaul on Saturday. I guess we have no excuses for hitting a wall late in the season.
One team that could have some trouble down the stretch is Xavier. They still have to play Cincinnati, Butler, Nova and St. John's.
|
|
hoyas1995
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,327
|
Post by hoyas1995 on Feb 17, 2015 15:00:04 GMT -5
|
|
tashoya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 12,320
|
Post by tashoya on Feb 17, 2015 15:45:18 GMT -5
I guess the Hoyas are just going to have to put them back there then.
|
|
|
Post by Ranch Dressing on Feb 17, 2015 15:47:56 GMT -5
Go 4-1 in the last 5 and we will be very well seeded.
|
|
|
Post by ColumbiaHeightsHoya on Feb 17, 2015 16:10:32 GMT -5
Butler without Chrabasz is extremely winnable too although I am guessing we cough one up to somebody down the stretch.
|
|
hoyaboya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 12,338
Member is Online
|
Post by hoyaboya on Feb 17, 2015 16:18:03 GMT -5
Butler without Chrabasz is extremely winnable too although I am guessing we cough one up to somebody down the stretch. That looked to be the toughest game left on the schedule pre-Chrabasz injury, but I agree that it's extremely winnable now. I'll predict 3-2 (losses at St. John's and at Butler) but 4-1 is very doable and 5-0 is not out of the question. We need to hope for a St. John's implosion, would be great if they go no better than 1-2 the next 3, at Georgetown, then home vs. Seton Hall and Xavier, before we play them again at the Garden.
|
|
This Just In
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Bold Prediction: The Hoyas will win at least 1 BE game in 2023.
Posts: 10,592
|
Post by This Just In on Feb 17, 2015 19:23:57 GMT -5
Feb 16th, Updated Bracketology Though idle for a week, the Hoyas have fallen from #6 Seed to #7 Seed. The 1st rd match up would be vs. #10 Temple then if Seeds hold true the Hoyas would face #2 Kansas (this would not be a favorable match up). Why would KU not be a favorable matchup? We played them close and that was pre-Ike. The only teams that I wouldn't want to meet early are UK, Duke or Nova. UK's length would cause us problems and Duke and Nova can really shoot the 3 with a lot of different people. 1. Kansas has a better team 2. Kansas has better coaching 3. Kansas won the game played this year, pre-Ike or not--(I assume u believe Copeland's emergence makes Kansas a better match-up?) I believe Bill Self/Kansas will have a defensive scheme to take DSR and/or Ike out of the Hoyas offensive game plan. You can have the last word.
|
|
SFHoya99
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 17,743
Member is Online
|
Post by SFHoya99 on Feb 17, 2015 21:12:25 GMT -5
Why would KU not be a favorable matchup? We played them close and that was pre-Ike. The only teams that I wouldn't want to meet early are UK, Duke or Nova. UK's length would cause us problems and Duke and Nova can really shoot the 3 with a lot of different people. 1. Kansas has a better team 2. Kansas has better coaching 3. Kansas won the game played this year, pre-Ike or not--(I assume u believe Copeland's emergence makes Kansas a better match-up?) I believe Bill Self/Kansas will have a defensive scheme to take DSR and/or Ike out of the Hoyas offensive game plan. You can have the last word. Umm, pretty much any 2-seed is going to be better than us. I think the question was why Kansas would be a particularly bad matchup. Then again, I will always take Duke as a matchup.
|
|
This Just In
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Bold Prediction: The Hoyas will win at least 1 BE game in 2023.
Posts: 10,592
|
Post by This Just In on Feb 18, 2015 11:09:55 GMT -5
1. Kansas has a better team 2. Kansas has better coaching 3. Kansas won the game played this year, pre-Ike or not--(I assume u believe Copeland's emergence makes Kansas a better match-up?) I believe Bill Self/Kansas will have a defensive scheme to take DSR and/or Ike out of the Hoyas offensive game plan. You can have the last word. Umm, pretty much any 2-seed is going to be better than us. I think the question was why Kansas would be a particularly bad matchup.Then again, I will always take Duke as a matchup. Georgetown has a losing record vs the top RPI 25, RPI 50, and RPI 100. Kansas Resume RPI (1) SOS (1) AP RANK (8) CONF. W-L (10-3) LAST 12 (9-3) NON-CONF. SOS (2) NON-CONF. W-L (11-2 ) vs. D-1 (21-5 ) NON-CONF. RPI (6) SCORING MARGIN (7.70) vs. RPI TOP 150 (18-5) OPPONENT SOS 1 NEUTRAL W-L (4-1) vs. RPI SUB 150 (3-0) ROAD W-L (5-4) vs. RPI TOP 25 (6-3) vs. RPI TOP 50 (9-5) vs. RPI TOP 100 (14-5) Hoyazeke thinks this is a good match-up for the Hoyas, do you think that also?
|
|
SFHoya99
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 17,743
Member is Online
|
Post by SFHoya99 on Feb 18, 2015 11:13:04 GMT -5
In terms of potential 2 seeds, I don't know that Kansas scares me more than some of the alternatives. I'd probably rather play Nova. I just don't think they are an awful matchup other than "they are good."
|
|