hoyainspirit
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
When life puts that voodoo on me, music is my gris-gris.
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Post by hoyainspirit on Feb 23, 2015 10:53:14 GMT -5
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Feb 23, 2015 11:06:28 GMT -5
Yep. I always thought that was the best reason to have 10 teams. You get 2 shots at all the good teams in your conference. A team on the bubble that only plays Wisconsin on the road might get screwed.
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Feb 23, 2015 11:51:43 GMT -5
If you go by both major polls, they will likely rate us as a 7 seed this week (#25-28 range).
I would hope the NCAA selection committee would bump us up a line to a 6 given the RPI, record in last 10, strength of conference, and overall SOS. So, maybe we are a 6 right now in the eyes of the selection committee.
We have a lot of work to do to move into 5 seed territory. Would have to go 2-1 in regular season and make it to finals of BET, I suspect, to be considered for a 5.
Usually, the 6 line is much better than the 4-5 lines to avoid the 1 seed in round 3.
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Post by hoyalove4ever on Feb 23, 2015 12:00:23 GMT -5
If, by some miracle, the team won out the three remaining regular-season games and either got to the final of the BET and lost, or won the BET, where would the Hoyas be seeded? Probably a 3, especially with a BET win? At worst a 4, it would seem. I wonder if there is a huge difference between a 3 and a 6...but I still want to see the Hoyas win out.
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Post by williambraskyiii on Feb 23, 2015 12:10:06 GMT -5
If you go by both major polls, they will likely rate us as a 7 seed this week (#25-28 range). I would hope the NCAA selection committee would bump us up a line to a 6 given the RPI, record in last 10, strength of conference, and overall SOS. So, maybe we are a 6 right now in the eyes of the selection committee. We have a lot of work to do to move into 5 seed territory. Would have to go 2-1 in regular season and make it to finals of BET, I suspect, to be considered for a 5. Usually, the 6 line is much better than the 4-5 lines to avoid the 1 seed in round 3. Remember that JTIII seems to have the NCAA selection committee pegged pretty well in terms of maximizing his team's value in their eyes. We were one of the final teams out last year with an 8-10 conf record AND a first round loss to DePaul. The committee values away/neutral wins against good competition and SOS. While our big wins this year aren't quite as good as last year's wins (last year: Creighton, Michigan State & VCU), we still have Nova, Indiana, Butler with a chance butler to get a very good road win.
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Feb 23, 2015 12:19:09 GMT -5
If, by some miracle, the team won out the three remaining regular-season games and either got to the final of the BET and lost, or won the BET, where would the Hoyas be seeded? Probably a 3, especially with a BET win? At worst a 4, it would seem. I wonder if there is a huge difference between a 3 and a 6...but I still want to see the Hoyas win out. If we won out our rpi would be 10 and SOS would be 3. Our record would be 24-8. I think we'd be a 3 seed easily.
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DanMcQ
Moderator
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Post by DanMcQ on Feb 23, 2015 12:21:43 GMT -5
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DanMcQ
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Post by DanMcQ on Feb 23, 2015 12:27:12 GMT -5
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Post by daymondmyles on Feb 23, 2015 14:21:26 GMT -5
IMO, a 7 is way too low. What the heck? We have an RPI of 21, SOS of anywhere from 3-5, no bad losses, wins against Butler, Villanova and Indiana and are 2nd in the 2nd rated conference. It seems absurd to me.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Feb 23, 2015 14:22:31 GMT -5
If you go by both major polls, they will likely rate us as a 7 seed this week (#25-28 range). I would hope the NCAA selection committee would bump us up a line to a 6 given the RPI, record in last 10, strength of conference, and overall SOS. So, maybe we are a 6 right now in the eyes of the selection committee. We have a lot of work to do to move into 5 seed territory. Would have to go 2-1 in regular season and make it to finals of BET, I suspect, to be considered for a 5. Usually, the 6 line is much better than the 4-5 lines to avoid the 1 seed in round 3. Remember that JTIII seems to have the NCAA selection committee pegged pretty well in terms of maximizing his team's value in their eyes. We were one of the final teams out last year with an 8-10 conf record AND a first round loss to DePaul. The committee values away/neutral wins against good competition and SOS. While our big wins this year aren't quite as good as last year's wins (last year: Creighton, Michigan State & VCU), we still have Nova, Indiana, Butler with a chance butler to get a very good road win. Yeah, even in the year we completely collapsed, we were still a 6 seed. The committee has always likes IIIs scheduling. I don't really see how we are a 7 seed without a bad loss.
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TBird41
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"Roy! I Love All 7'2" of you Roy!"
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Post by TBird41 on Feb 23, 2015 14:38:14 GMT -5
Remember that JTIII seems to have the NCAA selection committee pegged pretty well in terms of maximizing his team's value in their eyes. We were one of the final teams out last year with an 8-10 conf record AND a first round loss to DePaul. The committee values away/neutral wins against good competition and SOS. While our big wins this year aren't quite as good as last year's wins (last year: Creighton, Michigan State & VCU), we still have Nova, Indiana, Butler with a chance butler to get a very good road win. Yeah, even in the year we completely collapsed, we were still a 6 seed. The committee has always likes IIIs scheduling. I don't really see how we are a 7 seed without a bad loss. The only justification I can think of is our lack of quality road wins. Our best road win right now is at Seton Hall (RPI 74) and we only have one top 50 win away from Verizon (v. Indiana). But yeah, I don't think that'd drop us down to a 7 seed either.
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TBird41
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"Roy! I Love All 7'2" of you Roy!"
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Post by TBird41 on Feb 23, 2015 14:46:49 GMT -5
Remember that JTIII seems to have the NCAA selection committee pegged pretty well in terms of maximizing his team's value in their eyes. We were one of the final teams out last year with an 8-10 conf record AND a first round loss to DePaul. The committee values away/neutral wins against good competition and SOS. While our big wins this year aren't quite as good as last year's wins (last year: Creighton, Michigan State & VCU), we still have Nova, Indiana, Butler with a chance butler to get a very good road win. Yeah, even in the year we completely collapsed, we were still a 6 seed. The committee has always likes IIIs scheduling. I don't really see how we are a 7 seed without a bad loss. I just looked at the 2010-2011 team's resume, and that team had a ridiculous resume. They finished with the #1 SOS, #15 RPI, and no bad losses. They played 19(!) games against the RPI top 50 and went 9-10, including wins in Missouri against Mizzou, @ Cuse, @ Nova, @ ODU and @ Memphis. Obviously, Chris Wright's injury and status played a large part in them getting a #6 seed, but people underrate what that team accomplished prior to his injury.
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Feb 23, 2015 14:55:58 GMT -5
IMO, a 7 is way too low. What the heck? We have an RPI of 21, SOS of anywhere from 3-5, no bad losses, wins against Butler, Villanova and Indiana and are 2nd in the 2nd rated conference. It seems absurd to me. It doesn't sound that absurd to many people, as evidence by the two major polls, which have as a 7 seed. It would be hard to argue any higher than a 6 seed currently, with plenty of room to move up if we keep winning.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Feb 23, 2015 16:54:53 GMT -5
Yeah, even in the year we completely collapsed, we were still a 6 seed. The committee has always likes IIIs scheduling. I don't really see how we are a 7 seed without a bad loss. I just looked at the 2010-2011 team's resume, and that team had a ridiculous resume. They finished with the #1 SOS, #15 RPI, and no bad losses. They played 19(!) games against the RPI top 50 and went 9-10, including wins in Missouri against Mizzou, @ Cuse, @ Nova, @ ODU and @ Memphis. Obviously, Chris Wright's injury and status played a large part in them getting a #6 seed, but people underrate what that team accomplished prior to his injury. Interesting. Yeah, I didn't realize that. I just remember that we ended up 10-9 in the BE.
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Just Cos
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Eat 'em up Hoyas
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Post by Just Cos on Feb 23, 2015 17:34:05 GMT -5
The article about smaller conferences implies that smaller is better for the NCAAs. I think the real reason the Big East and the Big 12 will do well is lack of awful teams and lack of awful losses. That's more about the strength of the conferences than the size. In my mind smaller doesn't equal better for the tournament.
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KHoyaNYC
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Post by KHoyaNYC on Feb 23, 2015 18:05:43 GMT -5
There are actually a fair number of bracket projections that put us at a #5 seed. I think we're probably a #6 right now but close on the S-curve to a #5 seed. The SOS and RPI numbers and no sub-50 RPI losses makes #7 seem too low. There's definitely room for movement in either direction, I'd call it anywhere from a #3-#9 seed right now (#3 is if we win out through BET, #9 is if we lose out the rest of the way).
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bmartin
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Post by bmartin on Feb 23, 2015 18:09:03 GMT -5
The article about smaller conferences implies that smaller is better for the NCAAs. I think the real reason the Big East and the Big 12 will do well is lack of awful teams and lack of awful losses. That's more about the strength of the conferences than the size. In my mind smaller doesn't equal better for the tournament. But if you have 15 teams like the ACC you are guaranteed to have several teams with bad records and you are adding losses to your mediocre teams. Bringing in Louisville, Syracuse, Notre Dame, and Pitt has pushed everyone except Duke, UNC, and UVA down a few spots. Florida State, for example is 7-5 against the old ACC but 0-3 against the former Big East teams. They may not even make the NIT. Miami is 6-4 vs. the old ACC but 1-3 vs. the new teams - that is enough to push them from inside the bubble to outside the bubble.
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Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Feb 23, 2015 20:49:34 GMT -5
So after we lost to Wisconsin, I made a bet with an obnoxious Wisconsin fan who proclaimed that they'd win 32 games while we'd fail to win 22. I insisted we place bets on both win totals. Naturally, I had no idea the BE would be the 2nd best conference in the land or that the entire Big Ten would be Hot Garbage incapable of beating the Badgers.
What is the board consensus? Am I screwed on both bets? Will we split?
Wisconsin is 25-2 with 4 regular season games remaining, plus the possibility of 3 games in the Big Ten tournament.
We are 18-8, with 3 games left, plus the possibility of 3 in the BET.
Obviously each are likely to get 1 NCAA game for starters, Wisconsin you can probably guarantee at least 2 games.
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Just Cos
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Eat 'em up Hoyas
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Post by Just Cos on Feb 23, 2015 21:36:52 GMT -5
Split
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hoyainspirit
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
When life puts that voodoo on me, music is my gris-gris.
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Post by hoyainspirit on Feb 23, 2015 21:47:55 GMT -5
Split. You both will win. You got this, Big Dog.
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