jwp91
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Post by jwp91 on Nov 29, 2014 9:46:35 GMT -5
Given that we now have enough of a sample to make some reasonable assessments, I thought I would share a few here.
It looks like we have a 10 man rotation that averages at least 5 minutes a game...more than we have seen JT3 use previously. This is largely driven by the quality of the freshman recruits. Four of the five recruits average 12.5 minutes with Peak leading the way at 25 minutes. It is clear that each of the four have the potential to make big contributions on a game by game basis by as freshman they will likely be inconsistent.
Our center rotation includes 2 players - Smith and Hopkins, and Hopkins starts at power forward. This is going to be our achilles heal. Both players attract foul calls unnaturally. We will have several games in which we are white knuckling it.
Roughly 25% of our shots are from 3 point land down from 31% last year. We are hitting them at a very poor 30.9%. 75% of these shots have been taken by DSR, Peak, Campbell, & Cameron. Trawick, Whiite, and Copeland shoot a much lower volume but have much higher success.
More to come later....this is a start.
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NCHoya
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Post by NCHoya on Nov 29, 2014 10:06:13 GMT -5
Not sure I know what this team will be yet. For instance, I thought Peak would be our best freshman after the first few games, now I am fairly certain it will be White. Then I see the raw potential of Copeland against Butler and I have no idea anymore. What I do know is the 4 freshmen can all contribute and be the star of any game this season and that is a great thing.
I would agree I am not comfortable with our frontcourt situation of Hopkins and Smith. Just not enough quality minutes out of them and too many fouls. Hopkins defense is so important, but without any offensive game to go with it, how do you play him major minutes? Against some teams it will not matter, and one of the freshman can take the spot, but against other teams (good teams) this will be an issue.
I expect the shooting to improve. DSR had a lousy start but he will be back to his usual averages soon enough. We also know as the freshman feel more comfortable in their role, they should slow down and shoot better.
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njhoya78
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Post by njhoya78 on Nov 29, 2014 11:07:49 GMT -5
I don't think any of us need to be worried about DSR. His shots will drop, and his scoring will be up. He is learning how to be a point guard and still get his shots right now, and he will still be adjusting to this new role for a while. As for the newest version of the Fab Four, it is looking like a game-by-game version of "Can You Top This?" for the freshmen. White has been the most consistent of the frosh, but all have stepped up and contributed far beyond any rational expectations at this stage of the season, and three of the four have put their "stamp" on an individual game already.
The play of the upperclassmen has to be more of a concern right now. It is not unfair, at this stage, to expect Bowen, Hopkins and Trawick to play like leaders, and not make lazy and indifferent plays. It may well be that the only way to get their collective attentions is to start limiting their playing time.
Smith is sort of an enigma, because the majority of the fouls against him in the Bahamas were offensive fouls apparently whistled against him solely because of his girth; Jay Bilas's constant comments on that issue during yesterday's game spoke volumes. JT3 needs to step up and vocally protect against this type of foul call, and if it means he will pick up a technical foul or two, and perhaps even get himself tossed from a game, a message needs to be sent that Smith should not be penalized solely because he is so much bigger than the defender. Passive non-resistance worked for Mohandas Gandhi, but he never got hosed by a fat lazy zebra who was out of position.
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Eurostar
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Post by Eurostar on Nov 29, 2014 12:59:24 GMT -5
I was encouraged by the first few games on the mainland with regards to a deep rotation, pressing and fast break points.
For some reason, in the Bahamas its like we changed our strategy. We never pressed and we never looked to get out on the break. We sat in the half court offense, which consists solely of high screens at the top of the key.
Yes, we were facing better competition and bigger players, but it was like an entirely different strategy out there. Maybe JT3 wanted us to get experience in the half court sets or maybe he thought the guys would get tired since we had 3 games in 3 days.
But that being said, the team in the first few games that ran the break and pressed was a lot more enjoyable to watch than the team in the Bahamas.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Dec 1, 2014 23:14:55 GMT -5
In looking at some stats, there are some easy ways we can improve:
(1) Turnovers. This is really obvious, but right now we rank 266th nationwide in turnovers. Historically, Georgetown has never done well with turnovers, but we've had way to many sloppy and silly turnovers. Hopkins has been particularly bad (turning it over over 35% of the time!), but Bowen, Peak and Smith have been bad too.
(2) Using Hopkins in the proper role. I agree with others that if Paul White and Isaac Copeland continue to turn in good performances, I would probably rather see them play at the 4 instead of Hopkins. Hopkins' offensive efficiency is abysmal (81.1) and his usage is still pretty high (20.1%). As others have pointed out, it's also clear that Hopkins will be Smith's backup, and given foul troubles, I do not see any benefit from him playing much at the 4.
His strengths are defense and rebounds. I still want to see Hopkins shooting less and using fewer possessions. He also MUST lower his turnover rate, which is horrific (and that doesn't even count the bad offensive possessions when he gets stuffed or blocked).
People keep saying Hopkins has to get it going offensively. The problem is that 3 years and 6 games into his career, he has not showed any ability to do that. He still has his value to Georgetown, especially on defense and rebounding, but offense is not and will not be his thing. More importantly, if he cannot stop the turnovers, then he should be nailed to the pine. Hayes might not be great, but a 35% turnover rate is unacceptable.
(3) Free throws. 65.4% (251th among all D-1 teams) is unacceptably low for the team. Smith is at 52.0%. Given that he draws so many fouls, he needs to step it up. It's really too early to tell how good the freshman are because other than Peak (65%), the others have a really small sample size.
(4) Get DSR going. His overall efficiency is still good - 119.6, but that's largely from the Wisconsin game. He needs to use more possessions and score more. I'm confident he can do that since he did it last year in more difficult conditions.
(5) Use Smith more effectively. Smith has been a good offensive player for us, but I really think we can use him even more effectively. I realize it is part of some of our sets, but I think Smith has been coming out to the high post or beyond too much. He is absolutely no threat from that area (though he's a decent passer and can set a decent screen), and I think we need him fighting for the ball in the post more.
Overall, I think there is a lot to be positive about, and perhaps for the first time in years there is a lot of reason to think we will improve, particularly as the freshman get more comfortable. If the team can work on some of these items, they can beat Kansas in 10 days.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Dec 1, 2014 23:30:34 GMT -5
Yep, on a very basic level, the pros are these: the Hoyas shoot well from two, offensive rebound extremely well, and draw fouls fairly well. On defense, we contest shots pretty well and block a decent number of shots.
On the flip -- we don't defensive rebound, turnover the ball too much, can't hit FTs and can't hit 3s. Some of those are just effort and focus. That's the good news.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Dec 1, 2014 23:49:12 GMT -5
I had actually meant to add a point on three point shots. We either need to start hitting them at a higher rate, or we need to take less. The 4-13 we had on threes against Butler won't cut it.
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tashoya
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Post by tashoya on Dec 1, 2014 23:56:26 GMT -5
Yep, on a very basic level, the pros are these: the Hoyas shoot well from two, offensive rebound extremely well, and draw fouls fairly well. On defense, we contest shots pretty well and block a decent number of shots. On the flip -- we don't defensive rebound, turnover the ball too much, can't hit FTs and can't hit 3s. Some of those are just effort and focus. That's the good news. I agree with this and also with what HS2003 said. I am, however, hopeful about the defensive side of things. Something changed between LJ's first game and the Bahamas. I don't know if that came from the coach or from him and, yes, he has turned the ball over too much. But, while he's had some lapses defensively and, more glaringly, in rebounding, in the game against Florida, he was put on the ball handler down the stretch. He got low and caused a turnover and got pumped about it. That play lingered in my head for a while. A kid that is a stud scorer coming out of HS and putting up a record offensive game in his debut as a freshman, a few games down the line scoring much less and fired up about his defense. Hmmm. That's a pretty rare thing, no? He's forced some things and, likely, he will and he probably should to find what works and what doesn't in situations that allow that. But for him to buy in early on and get after it on D, that's huge in my mind. Couple that with the reaction of the bench when Copeland had that put-back. This group is a team. I get that everyone was fired up because of the situation but the reactions to Isaac coming up big in a crucial part of the game and Isaac getting fired up too... these guys are going to compete. They expect Isaac to do that and that was the first sign that he could do what was billed. I can accept the growing pains and the silly turnovers for now. I'm not worried about this group's level of wanting to win or their competitiveness. We even saw DSR in the Florida game yell on a layup for an and one toward the end. I think this group is going to get much better in-season. I think they expect to win games. While expectation can lead to complacency, these guys haven't proven much yet so complacency shouldn't be an issue. That's why, in a twisted way, I liked the loss to Butler. If they needed a check on where they were at developmentally, they got that and got it early. I don't mean that as a knock on Butler. Butler looked better than expected and they get after it. There's no let up in that squad. But 2 months from now, the Hoyas should beat them and it shouldn't be all that close. I'm really hoping that that loss is a game that offers perspective and points to the things that need to improve for this team to be successful. Wishful thinking is a helluva drug.
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sleepy
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Post by sleepy on Dec 1, 2014 23:57:06 GMT -5
I had actually meant to add a point on three point shots. We either need to start hitting them at a higher rate, or we need to take less. The 4-13 we had on threes against Butler won't cut it. 4-13? The box score in saw said 6-11 and 54%. And the Wisconsin box score I saw was over 50% too. Though admittedly I could have read them Wrong since everyone seems to think 3 point shooting is a big issue. I personally don't think we have a large enough sample size to say our three point shooting is a weakness yet. I don't think we will be a great 3 pt team but I think it will fine as long as we take the right shots. With everyone but Hopkins and Smith a credible threat that you can't leave wide open from out there, I don't think it will be a huge concern. I could definitely be wrong though.
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prhoya
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Post by prhoya on Dec 2, 2014 7:07:51 GMT -5
I had actually meant to add a point on three point shots. We either need to start hitting them at a higher rate, or we need to take less. The 4-13 we had on threes against Butler won't cut it. 4-13? The box score in saw said 6-11 and 54%. And the Wisconsin box score I saw was over 50% too. Though admittedly I could have read them Wrong since everyone seems to think 3 point shooting is a big issue. I personally don't think we have a large enough sample size to say our three point shooting is a weakness yet. I don't think we will be a great 3 pt team but I think it will fine as long as we take the right shots. With everyone but Hopkins and Smith a credible threat that you can't leave wide open from out there, I don't think it will be a huge concern. I could definitely be wrong though. 7 of 18 (39%) vs Wisconsin 4 of 13 (31%) vs Butler
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hoyas2006
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Post by hoyas2006 on Dec 2, 2014 8:00:02 GMT -5
I just want to know why Hopkins production/talent level or whatever you want to call it has gone down in the 4 years here at Gtown. He has pretty much been a 4 year starter that has logged a ton of minutes and I haven't seen an ounce of improvement. He should be avg a double double easily and Jabril should be right there with him. Very dissapointing to see lack of developemnt with our seniors. Last year Lubick was in the same boat
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Elvado
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Post by Elvado on Dec 2, 2014 8:20:44 GMT -5
Big John used to say you can whip a mule all day long and never win the Derby.
That will not be a problem with this team. The talent and raw materials are there.
Let's see what they make of it. It could be a lot of fun.
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calhoya
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Post by calhoya on Dec 2, 2014 8:26:24 GMT -5
First, Hopkins has actually improved significantly--on defense. The difference in his positioning and his ability to provide help defense is enormous from just a couple of years ago. As for offense, I believe it is a combination of playing out of position for too long--the 5 instead of the 4 and also having "weak" hands. He is obviously working out to get stronger and yet seems to get stripped more than most when defenders hack away. He is not able to finish. As for his position, it is unfortunate that the Hoyas did not have the luxury of developing Hopkins as a 4. For whatever reason during his tenure, he has always been needed at the 5 (even as the backup) and there have usually been a number of other options at the 4 (Whittington, Lubick and even Porter). On offense Hopkins still puts the ball on the floor instead of going right up with it. I wonder if his efficiency might improve if he took entry passes and just went straight up with the shot instead of trying to dribble or back in, thereby giving the opponents time to collapse on him and hack away at those hands.
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hoyainspirit
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Post by hoyainspirit on Dec 2, 2014 9:19:21 GMT -5
I just want to know why Hopkins production/talent level or whatever you want to call it has gone down in the 4 years here at Gtown. He has pretty much been a 4 year starter that has logged a ton of minutes and I haven't seen an ounce of improvement. He should be avg a double double easily and Jabril should be right there with him. Very dissapointing to see lack of developemnt with our seniors. Last year Lubick was in the same boat Sorry, '06, that lack of development comment is incorrect. As a rebounder and defender, Hopkins has improved by light years. He has grown from an awful rebounder to one of the best in the nation. He just sucks on offense, especially when he puts the ball on the floor, and that's what the avg fan sees - offense. Hops value to the Hoyas would be so much greater if he just didn't turn it over so much. That is disappointing, but he does rebound and play defense quite well, much better than we he arrived on the Hilltop.
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seaweed
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Post by seaweed on Dec 2, 2014 9:51:37 GMT -5
The problem of our posts getting stripped and generally manhandled when they get the ball on the blocks stems in my mind from their score first mentality. When either Hop or Smith gets the entry pass, teams know they are going to try to get to the rim - neither of them is averaging even 1 assist per game when a big part of their game should be the kick-out. Josh in particular has been trying to bull his way through double and triple teams while there are open looks on the wings. Hopkins just can't grip the ball well enough to push through traffic - it's sad really, he must be such a gentle giant but damn boy, get a grip on that rock! If either of them were to master the art of kicking it back out to the wing, they might not be averaging 5 TOs between then against 1.5 assisteses as double and triple teamers would be forced to play more honestly. We cannot just bull our way through when teams clog the paint on us. 9 assists through 6 games - ugh!
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Post by RockawayHoya on Dec 2, 2014 10:23:16 GMT -5
I just want to know why Hopkins production/talent level or whatever you want to call it has gone down in the 4 years here at Gtown. He has pretty much been a 4 year starter that has logged a ton of minutes and I haven't seen an ounce of improvement. He should be avg a double double easily and Jabril should be right there with him. Very dissapointing to see lack of developemnt with our seniors. Last year Lubick was in the same boat Sorry, '06, that lack of development comment is incorrect. As a rebounder and defender, Hopkins has improved by light years. He has grown from an awful rebounder to one of the best in the nation. He just sucks on offense, especially when he puts the ball on the floor, and that's what the avg fan sees - offense. Hops value to the Hoyas would be so much greater if he just didn't turn it over so much. That is disappointing, but he does rebound and play defense quite well, much better than we he arrived on the Hilltop. 100% correct he's improved significantly at defense and rebounding. He has limitations offensively that won't go away, but he just has to cut out the silly fouls (half-hearted reaches 30 feet from the basket, illegal screens) and the silly turnovers (fumbling dribble-drive handoffs, not being able to kick back out to the perimeter after a post move goes awry, etc.) and he will be just fine. Also, here is the list of players who have averaged a double-double under JT3. So yes, if All-Americans and Player of the Year candidates can't do it, I don't think we can expect Hopkins to easily do it. Ideally, if he has 7 rebounds a game and can limit himself to about a turnover a game, we should gladly take that in a heartbeat.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Dec 2, 2014 10:36:33 GMT -5
For comparison's sake (understanding its a very small sample right now for Hopkins):
Otto Porter (as a Sophomore): 6.6 OREB%; 18.9 DREB%. Roy Hibbert (as a Senior): 11.3 OREB%; 17.0 DREB%. Henry Sims (as a Senior): 8.6 OREB%; 17.1 DREB%. Greg Monroe (as a Sophomore): 8.5 OREB%; 25.1 DREB%. Mikael Hopkins so far: 15.4 OREB%; 19.7 DREB%. Josh Smith so far: 18.4 OREB%; 17.1 DREB%.
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Post by aleutianhoya on Dec 2, 2014 10:44:02 GMT -5
In looking at some stats, there are some easy ways we can improve: (2) Using Hopkins in the proper role. I agree with others that if Paul White and Isaac Copeland continue to turn in good performances, I would probably rather see them play at the 4 instead of Hopkins. Hopkins' offensive efficiency is abysmal (81.1) and his usage is still pretty high (20.1%). As others have pointed out, it's also clear that Hopkins will be Smith's backup, and given foul troubles, I do not see any benefit from him playing much at the 4. (5) Use Smith more effectively. Smith has been a good offensive player for us, but I really think we can use him even more effectively. I realize it is part of some of our sets, but I think Smith has been coming out to the high post or beyond too much. He is absolutely no threat from that area (though he's a decent passer and can set a decent screen), and I think we need him fighting for the ball in the post more. I think we can all agree (and it sounds like we do) that if White or Copeland can handle the defensive matchup, then it makes sense to not have Mikael be on the court with Josh, since the offense suffers with two bigs that aren't a threat from outside of three feet (and one big who isn't a consistent threat from inside of three feet). But you can't understate the defensive part, and it doesn't always show up in the stat line. If they can't handle the matchup consistently, we can't go with that lineup consistently. I both agree and disagree with Josh up top. I think we've used him up top a decent amount not just in the "you hand the ball to me and I'll hand it someone else" role, but as a way to set him up for post position. That is, he's either handed it off and then gone to the block, or set a pick and rolled to the block. In both cases, I prefer that to just having him always move from block to block, where he's easier for the defense to: (1) identify, (2) front in order to deny, and (3) eventually double. So, I don't have any problem with him up there as a way to bring some variety to how we get him the ball. I also think he can be useful in a high screening role for a shooter (e.g., DSR) because if his man is going to sag into the post, then there's no ability for his defender to switch onto DSR, who is left wide-open for a three or another aggressive play. We did that a lot last year with Nate, for example. Where I agree with you is in late game situations. I really didn't like having Josh set the screen for DSR at the end of the Wisconsin game, because a double-team was the obvious Wisconsin strategy there, and Josh is no threat to shoot the three. I think it was the same set as the fabled "Jon Wallace step in front of the pin-down screen by Roy" play, but here, we absolutely needed the three, so Wisconsin reacted just as they should have. Better there to have someone who is some threat set that screen, so DSR has a passing option on a pick and pop. But that's a quibble.
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EtomicB
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Post by EtomicB on Dec 2, 2014 11:47:36 GMT -5
The problem of our posts getting stripped and generally manhandled when they get the ball on the blocks stems in my mind from their score first mentality. When either Hop or Smith gets the entry pass, teams know they are going to try to get to the rim - neither of them is averaging even 1 assist per game when a big part of their game should be the kick-out. Josh in particular has been trying to bull his way through double and triple teams while there are open looks on the wings. Hopkins just can't grip the ball well enough to push through traffic - it's sad really, he must be such a gentle giant but damn boy, get a grip on that rock! If either of them were to master the art of kicking it back out to the wing, they might not be averaging 5 TOs between then against 1.5 assisteses as double and triple teamers would be forced to play more honestly. We cannot just bull our way through when teams clog the paint on us. 9 assists through 6 games - ugh! Great Post Seaweed!! Josh needs to show a lot more patience when he gets the ball on the blocks..
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sleepy
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Post by sleepy on Dec 2, 2014 12:01:38 GMT -5
4-13? The box score in saw said 6-11 and 54%. And the Wisconsin box score I saw was over 50% too. Though admittedly I could have read them Wrong since everyone seems to think 3 point shooting is a big issue. I personally don't think we have a large enough sample size to say our three point shooting is a weakness yet. I don't think we will be a great 3 pt team but I think it will fine as long as we take the right shots. With everyone but Hopkins and Smith a credible threat that you can't leave wide open from out there, I don't think it will be a huge concern. I could definitely be wrong though. 7 of 18 (39%) vs Wisconsin 4 of 13 (31%) vs Butler I see the problem the Butler box score I kept checking was the Wisconsin one. However, the Wisconsin box score still says 6-11 (54%). I don't know where you get the 39% from that game. DSR was 5-6, Tre Campbell 1-3, LJ Peak 0-2. At least according the two box scores I saw, again I could be mistaken.
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