Prognosis after Kenner

[daymondmyles]

Since Kenner is over for most of the Hoyas (with only Bowen and Caprio still alive), I'm going to give my prediction on the state of the Hoyas. I know a lot of people think it's hard to extrapolate from Kenner but in my experience, that's not true. You can definitely see how a player has progressed or not progressed and their weaknesses and strengths. A lot of weaknesses can be minimized with coaching in the real season and a lot of strengths can be taken away by scouting and better players in the real season. But here we go.

Basically, I'm definitely worried. More so than years past. Generally, I'm pretty optimistic going into the season but I think this team will suffer from poor defense and rebounding. I know what you're thinking: that nobody really defends or rebounds during Kenner. But that's not really true. Watching a player in Kenner, you can see whether he attacks the ball and stays in front of his man, tendencies, etc. On defense, Hayes is awful, Josh Smith is fairly terrible and so is Cameron. DSR is OK. Hopkins and Nate are OK. Moses can be very good if he learns to stop fouling. Markel and Jabril are very good. Rebounding is worse though. The only rebounders worth anything are Moses and possibly Nate. Hops, Smith, and Hayes may be the worst group of big men in terms of rebounding that I've ever seen. We will miss Otto and Greg big time on this front. Now, there are ways to minimize these. For defense, we play even more zone although that will hurt our rebounding more. And for rebounding, play more Moses but that will hurt our offense.

Now, for the good news. I actually think our offense could be pretty good. We will miss a player like Otto of course. But I think Markel is ready for a big year. Jabril has gotten better and so has Hops. And most of all, Josh Smith will be a force and will be something we haven't had for awhile, a big man to bail us out late in shot clocks and also wear the other side down. Add in a smooth shooting Cameron and players like Bowen and Domingo, and you have a lot of options. What does this all mean though?

In the grand scheme, I still think we are in the upper half of the Big East and maybe we outscore people enough to win it mostly because I'm not sure there are any elite teams this year in the conference. But we will struggle against teams that can run and score in bunches or even just have offensive firepower down low. Maybe that just means we get a lower seed in the tourney than years past and reverse the trend by advancing since we no longer face the Cinderella. But I just hate the thought of going into the season with these weaknesses.

P.S. my X factor may be Bowen. I've always liked the kid, his heart and attitude, but was definitely down on him because I thought he had limited ability. But I must give him credit. He really has grown and matured not only in the past couple of years but during this offseason. The Bowen I saw the past couple of weekends is better than the one I saw at the beginning of Kenner. I'm not sure what role he will play but I hope it's a decent one because I'm liking how he is trending.

[jester]

Since our defense has disappeared anyways in the tournament even in good years maybe at least we can tackle issues we have had in the past: stopping guards, having some depth and more balance on offense.

[hoyainspirit]

Aug 5, 2013 8:44:19 GMT -5 daymondmyles said:

Basically, I'm definitely worried. More so than years past. Generally, I'm pretty optimistic going into the season but I think this team will suffer from poor defense and rebounding.

That result may happen, daymond, but we lost exactly one player (granted, our best defensive player, OP, whose DRtg was 82.6), and return everyone else from a team that finished 4th in the nation in Adj. Def. Efficiency. We may not be as good as last year on defense, but I doubt we will be poor. Also, I am one of those people who believes that it is difficult to draw any significant conclusions from Kenner play concerning how the team will perform in the coming season.

[daymondmyles]

Both fair points. I'm still baffled how our defense has disappeared in the tourney, especially last year.

[SFHoya99]

Our offense is going to be pretty bad if Smith can't play or can't play many minutes. There's some shooters and DSR and Markel will have some big games, but overall, there's just not a ton of offensive talent on the team.

Defensively, there's a lot to team defense and work ethic. That doesn't play out in Kenner. We'll be worse than last year but I still think it will be a pretty decent defense.

[nychoya3]

I am somewhat more optimistic in that I think Markel/DSR will form the best backcourt duos in the conference and one of the better ones in the country. They will shoulder a lot of the scoring load, and I think they're highly capable. Josh Smith will determine whether we're a serious threat to make some noise (i.e. look really good and then inexplicably lose to 15 seed in the tourney). Josh shouldn't be listed among the bad rebounders on the team - his rebounding rates are VERY good, particularly from his freshman year. Better than anyone Georgetown has had in a while in that regard on the offensive end.

[vv83]

The two guys that may well determine our season this year: Josh Smith and Aaron Bowen. We know (more or less) what we have in Starks, Trawick, Lubick (and to a lesser extent Hopkins and DSR). Smith and Bowen are the two guys that have the less clear record of performance, but a pretty intriguing level of upside possibility.

If Josh can stay on the court and play with some energy, he'll give us a low post scoring option that very few teams have these days. Defensively - he is bad, there is no getting around that. He just can't move well enough. But if he plays with energy, as he did sporadically this summer, he can be just garden variety bad, rather than defense-destroying awful. Every pound lost is a positive. He can probably play and contribute on some level at his current weight. But another 20 pounds lighter could be real dividends in terms of his movement, energy, and stamina. If he ever had a major weight loss (e.g. got down to something like 275), he could well be an NBA player. But Josh has had plenty of time over the last few years to engage in major weight loss, and it has not happened. I think we are kidding ourselves if we think there is going to be any massive weight loss from this point forward. But another 20-30 pounds might be in the realm of possibility, and that would still help a lot.

If Bowen can build on his last few weeks of summer play - he'll be the most athletic player we have played regularly since Ewing jr. Bowen has been darn good the last few weeks. Explosive attacking the basket, finishing and drawing fouls. Shooting well - consistent form, good rotation, hitting his foul shots, hitting a solid percentage of jumpers. Playing the passing lanes with good anticipation on D, coming up with steals to start transition opportunities. he is also quietly a real good passer in transition, setting up easy hoops for others when he is not finishing himself. My fear is that he has to be playing in a fast paced game to be this kind of player, and that if we play our usual slower style, Bowen won't be able to have much impact. I do think that it would be wise to give Bowen a clear shot at 25+ minutes a game at small forward to start the season, to see if he can give us some consistent performance in the regular season. Because if we get the Bowen that has played the last two weekends in the regular season - it will be a blessing out of almost nowhere that allows us to move forward with the loss of Whittington for the season without really missing a beat. i think it is still a longshot that Bowen will be this good - but his play the last few weekends at least provides some amount of hope that this could be a realistic possibility. And he does not need to be that good to still be a major contributor. So give him the minutes, nobody else we have has his upside as a starter at the 3.

We say it every year, but maybe 'this is the year' we should play faster, at least until Josh gets on the court. Hopkins, Bowen, Starks, Trawick, and Lubick all play very well in fast paced summer games. How much can you extrapolate that to the regular season? Who knows. But seeing those five guys pushing the tempo on both ends of the court - that could be some fun, effective basketball. Our other main players - Josh, DSR, Cameron - are far less athletic (though quite skilled) half court players primarily. It is an intriguing but kind of awkward mix, and as always it will be interesting to see how things play out.

[HoyaSinceBirth]

I said this elsewhere, but I really think we should have basically two line ups a fast line up and a slow line up and deploy them almost like Hockey Lines. I think it makes sense to start with the slow line up as the starters and then bring in the fast line up to change the pace rather than the other way around. I think the ability to play both ways could be devastating. You play predominately zone with the slow line up and then play man to man with the fast line up. Of course there's several players that can play in both line ups but there are a few that clearly only fit in to one set up: Aaron: Fast, Josh: Slow. I think it could be very effective.

[hoyasaxa2003]

Like a few of the past several seasons, part of the problem we face is that our success this season is based on a bunch of questionable factors. If these factors turn out positively, we may be fine and overachieve expectations. If not, then we may not be a great team this year.

While we return everybody but Porter, and presumably everybody else will improve, I think we can't underestimate exactly how good Porter was last year, and how many games he won for us with his stellar performance. Indeed, one of the reasons we lost to FGCU is that Porter's performance was pretty bad both offensively and defensively. I am not saying that that's necessarily a window into what a Porter-less team will look like, but we cannot ignore it either.

Unless we have somebody who steps it up big time from last year, I think this year is going to be challenging. I think we are a tournament team, but I'd be shocked (pleasantly) if we got a 2 seed again. The big factors are:

(1) Josh Smith: This is the biggest X factor. A lighter and more skilled Josh Smith will dramatically change the nature of this team. If we got Josh Smith's freshman year stats, we'd basically have a center who is 30 points better in O rating, and a much better offensive rebounder. On offense, at least, that would help make up for Porter's loss.

Smith also has a multiplier effect of sorts - the better he is, the more he will command double teams, and the more effective our perimeter shooters will become.

(2) Small Forward. Will anybody step up here? Cameron, Domingo, Bowen? Who knows, but if we are going to be a very good team, somebody needs to step up. If Domingo and Bowen don't improve on past performance, and Cameron isn't ready from day one, we're going to have a noticeable hole in the middle of our lineup, which could lead to more 3 guard lineups, even though JTIII said he will not do that.

(3) Center before / without Smith. Can anybody step up here? We got away with nothing from this position last year because Porter was so good, but can Moses or anybody else step up here?

(4) Everybody else. Will anybody else step up? Starks could maybe make a jump, and I think he will, but how much? I am inclined to think it'll be a smaller jump but I hope I'm wrong and he makes a big jump. I do believe DSR could be ripe for a great season and huge improvement. Lubick probably won't be much better than last year, but if he could make a jump shot it would help. Hopkins? I hope he will improve but I'm not overly optimistic. Trawick will provide great defense, and be a key player. A big jump in his shooting would be huge.

The overall point is that we have a lot of good things that could happen and mean we are better than I expect, but the problem is that there are a lot of "ifs" in here. On the other hand, this is college basketball, and players improve, so my guess is some of these things will happen.

My hope for this team right now is a good winning season, decent NCAA seed, and at least one tournament win. If Josh Smith is really good and can play 25-30 minutes a game, I might upgrade that to a Sweet 16.

[calhoya]

Aug 5, 2013 13:10:52 GMT -5 HoyaSinceBirth said:

I said this elsewhere, but I really think we should have basically two line ups a fast line up and a slow line up and deploy them almost like Hockey Lines. I think it makes sense to start with the slow line up as the starters and then bring in the fast line up to change the pace rather than the other way around. I think the ability to play both ways could be devastating. You play predominately zone with the slow line up and then play man to man with the fast line up. Of course there's several players that can play in both line ups but there are a few that clearly only fit in to one set up: Aaron: Fast, Josh: Slow. I think it could be very effective.

Agree with your general comment on the two different styles that this team can play. However, I do not think that Bowen is limited to the fast tempo. His shooting has improved and his athleticism is an asset in either tempo, particularly on defense and getting to the basket--even in a halfcourt style of game. Two comments on the future of the team for the upcoming season: a) Smith is now, and is very likely going to remain at least for the next season, a one-dimensional player who will not be able to go at any tempo for more than a limited period of time without needing a breather; and b) as always, the most important determinant of the upcoming season is not a player, but the ability of JT III to adapt to this collection of players who have been assembled. He did a nice job of this last year after the loss of Whittington. Other years have not been as successful. It is particularly critical that he find combinations at the 4-5 to provide enough offense and rebounding to prevent opposing teams from extending defenses to take away our shooters.

[MCIGuy]

Virtually every year someone writes the standard "I'm worried about our prospects for next season after seeing the performances in the Kenner League" post. Virtually every year. And I have commented it on it before so it isn't as if I'm trying to put a positive spin on the upcoming season. It's just that I've been here before. We've all been here before. We've all read the writeups which, based upon KL play, raise questions about who will score, who will rebound, who will provide productivity off the bench, who will provide outside shooting, who will provide added depth for ballhandling, who will take a step forward, who will replace the guy that just left who is irreplaceable and my favorite of all who will be The Big Man who will be able to handle all of those other future NBA studs at the center position in the Big East(yeah, the sarcasm on my part is overflowing). These same questions are still being asked even though the Hoyas will be playing next season in a Big East that is without question weaker than any Big East in recent memory. So I'm going to brush this off as just something we like to do on HoyaTalk: worry like ****.

I don't know. Some people walk away from KL mainly unimpressed with players while others walk away and see all the glorious possibilities. I guess I'm the part of the latter. I would have to witness a KL full of Joey Browns and Pascal Fleurys to not at least be intrigued by some of the potential at least of the players on the court. I didn't see any KL games this summer (this is becoming a habit) but I come away encouraged by all the KL writeups I've seen on this and other boards as well as what I've read on twitter. And why shouldn't I be? Not only, as mentioned earlier, will the BE be a weaker conference but history under III suggests the team almost always surpass expectations for the regular season. And history under III also indicates that Hoya fans tend to fret somewhat about the team's chances for the upcoming season after witnessing a ton of KL games that left them with more questions than answers. For example I remember how fans loved what they saw from frosh-to-be Jeff Green and admired the effort that he and his fellow freshmen displayed during summer action but people insisted that the Hoyas would struggle the upcoming season. But that team, III's first year as coach, almost made the NCAA tourney. The following summer people still loved Green, had become very fawn over Jon and saw some development in Roy. Nonetheless quite a few thought, based upon KL play, the team as a whole still had too many flaws and therefore it was unrealistic to expect the team to make it to the tourney. And yet that team made it to the Sweet Sixteen. Two years ago folks loved what they saw in the Tombs freshmen such as Otto, Greg, Jabril, etc, but they were not overly impressed with the summer production of the returning players like Henry, Jason and Hollis and thus figured that the loss of Austin, Chris and Julian would be too much to overcome for the Hoyas to go dancing in March. But dancing is exactly what they did in the immediate season that followed.

I'm not worried about our bigs. They are the same big men the team had last year when the Hoyas won the Big East, but now there is the addition of Josh to that group and possibly more minutes for Hayes. Any concern I have about Josh's weight is overshadowed, in my eyes, by the potential of Markel, Jabril, DSR and Bowen on the perimeter. All I ask is that III finally takes advantage of the Hoyas' perimeter players by utilizing a more uptempo style. That would also allow athletes like Hopkings to take advantage of their fullcourt strengths. But I suppose that is another annual tradition that is annoyingly played out on these boards: me hoping that III would push the tempo. I have faith in III's teams surpassing expectations of the media and college bball fans during the regular season. I have faith in individual Hoyas surpassing the expectations of their fans during the regular season. It isn't until the postseason comes along that I begin to abandon all hope.

[lichoya68]

Lots of good points NOW let the games begin we will see. AND we still have coach that aint changed.. GO HOYAS

[DFW HOYA]

People can be worried or exuberant about Kenner League but it's not likely to change the direction the coaching staff will take with regards to playing time.

The starting lineup figures to be Starks, Trawick, DSR, Lubick, and Hopkins and they'll all get 28 or more minutes per game unless fouls become a problem. Bowen, Ayegba, and Domingo will get some limited rotation, with Caprio moving to a spot role much like Bowen had last season. Beyond that, it's hard to see much out of these reports which suggest a massive shakeup in the way the lineups take hold.

[EtomicB]

Aug 6, 2013 12:05:58 GMT -5 DFW HOYA said:

People can be worried or exuberant about Kenner League but it's not likely to change the direction the coaching staff will take with regards to playing time.

The starting lineup figures to be Starks, Trawick, DSR, Lubick, and Hopkins and they'll all get 28 or more minutes per game unless fouls become a problem. Bowen, Ayegba, and Domingo will get some limited rotation, with Caprio moving to a spot role much like Bowen had last season. Beyond that, it's hard to see much out of these reports which suggest a massive shakeup in the way the lineups take hold.

I think Cameron's name must be included in all rotation talks. He shoots it too well to spend his 1st year glued to the bench

[nychoya3]

Yeah, if his shooting carries over, Reggie will get at least 10-15 minutes a game. A guy his size who can shoot like that is too much of a threat not to use him. With DSR and Markel creating looks for him, he won't be asked to do much on offense beyond catch and shoot. I also think he's a guy JT3 will like in terms of being in the right spots on offense. Big question will be whether he takes away more on defense than he gives on offense.

Also, think there's a non-trivial chance Bowen starts at the 3, with likely DSR coming off the bench.

[Filo]

Aug 6, 2013 13:30:39 GMT -5 nychoya3 said:

Yeah, if his shooting carries over, Reggie will get at least 10-15 minutes a game. A guy his size who can shoot like that is too much of a threat not to use him. With DSR and Markel creating looks for him, he won't be asked to do much on offense beyond catch and shoot. I also think he's a guy JT3 will like in terms of being in the right spots on offense. Big question will be whether he takes away more on defense than he gives on offense.

Also, think there's a non-trivial chance Bowen starts at the 3, with likely DSR coming off the bench.

Does "non-trivial" mean "zero" in this context?

[calhoya]

Aug 6, 2013 12:05:58 GMT -5 DFW HOYA said:

People can be worried or exuberant about Kenner League but it's not likely to change the direction the coaching staff will take with regards to playing time.

The starting lineup figures to be Starks, Trawick, DSR, Lubick, and Hopkins and they'll all get 28 or more minutes per game unless fouls become a problem. Bowen, Ayegba, and Domingo will get some limited rotation, with Caprio moving to a spot role much like Bowen had last season. Beyond that, it's hard to see much out of these reports which suggest a massive shakeup in the way the lineups take hold.

I think that Bowen or Cameron/Domingo will play more than you suspect, because it is difficult to imagine Starks, DSR and Trawick being able to play long periods without needing rest or accumulating fouls. Additionally, even in the new Big East, it is difficult to imagine that the Hoyas can go "small" all the time. Barring some dramatic improvement in rebounding by Hopkins, it is going to be necessary for another big to play at the 3 against many teams. I know that Bowen is the same height as Trawick, but he plays much taller than his height. Last year, both Whittington and Porter did a good job of rebounding and neither will be present. Not certain from the reports whether Cameron or Domingo are ready for significant rebounding responsibilities but they clearly have the height to contribute on the boards.

[prhoya]

DSR is a starter.

[kghoya]

Aug 6, 2013 19:19:42 GMT -5 prhoya said:

DSR is a starter.

He will get starter minutes but I like the idea of bringing a guy off the bench that can do something to change the game.

[hoyasaxa2003]

Aug 6, 2013 19:19:42 GMT -5 prhoya said:

DSR is a starter.

JT3 generally relies on his best players for big minutes so I think DSR will easily be in the top 4-5 in minutes on this team. I am pretty confident he will get more minutes than Trawick even if Trawick starts over DSR.

I'd look for 30+ minutes from DSR, Starks, and Lubick. I think Trawick will probably be in the 20-25 range, unless nobody steps up at SF, in which case his minutes could be higher.