Options for the Offense

[SFHoya99]

Though I traveled 2,000 miles to sit through that travesty of an offensive performance on Saturday, the fact that we couldn't score really shouldn't have come as a surprise. Hoyatalk reaction is nothing new, but that was pretty much the same offense we've seen most of the year, and likely will see, maybe with Otto making a few more shots (and therefore winning).

Right now, I see three core issues with the offense:

• There's really no creator on offense. Good offenses have players who can score one on one, which means opponents have to help, creating wide open shots. Good offenses force defenses into decisions with no good answers -- do I double Roy Hibbert off of Jon Wallace? It doesn't mean it needs to be a breakdown guard -- post players often work better.
  
  But we don't have any. Otto is a wonderful player, but he's not a guy you need to help on D. The closest thing we have is Markel.
  
  
• We don't run crisp sets otherwise. Teams that don't have a clear one on one advantage run plays or systems to create those decisions by the defense. This is essentially what a pick and roll is, or our back cuts.
  
  This is an executional issue. But people aren't making hard cuts, offensive rebounding, etc.
  
  
• We don't have good enough shooters to space the floor. We've generally been successful in creating issues by having shooters -- but this year we have Markel and... Otto, sometimes?
  

What can actually be fixed now? Much of the problem -- shooting, creating skills are the result of lack of development or recruiting, depending on your point of view. They aren't getting fixed today. Sure, the shooting may pick up -- Whit's did last year -- and I'm sure there's some mechanical flaws here and there that can be fixed, but Hopkins isn't developing a low post game tomorrow.

The execution on what we do run can improve. It's not an area that I can really comment on -- this is where 99% of us on the board really have no insight into how these things are going in practice, etc. These are tactical and execution issues.

What would I like see done? I think the team has actually done a few of these -- Hopkins' minutes are down, the team is fast breaking more (despite not forcing a lot of TOs, we had almost triple Marquette's FB points), etc.

Here's a couple more:

• Move Markel from a green light to forcing the issue. Markel is our only guy who can create. Normally I hate offenses that take good but not great players and hand them the ball, this is the best option for this team. 'Kel started to take over a bit in the Marquette game; I'd like to see him do this from minute one.
  
  If it doesn't work, it doesn't work. But there's no one better suited to create for himself and others than Starks on this team. A mediocre offense with this defense is a pretty decent team.
  
  
• Go small. At this point, our bigs are giving us very little. Lubick at least is making shots he takes, but neither he nor Hopkins are rebounding all that well (or in Hopkins' case, at all), and I'm not sure the defense drops off. And we all know about Hopkins' offensive issues. Put Otto, not Hop, on the block.
  
  
• Run plays for, and take more threes. What? More outside shooting? Yes -- it's the one shot we can almost always get open for, and right now this team can't get anything going down low. Don't give up on attacking the hoop at all, but right now we're mostly shooting mid-range jump shots. No one scores effectively doing that. I'd love to attack the hoop, but you've got to execute what you can.
  

[jgalt]

Hmm. To me, and it similar to what identified SF, is that none of the players want to be the guy who is scoring 30 pts a game. Maybe Greg (he seems to really like scoring) but he doesnt do it. They are trying to be team players and not be great players. Thats probably a result of coaching. In some ways its a good problem to have, as most teams have the opposite problem.

But then, I also think about all the shots that were good shots to take and just didnt go in and I think maybe there ist really a problem to solve.

[HoyaSinceBirth]

I pretty much agree with all of this.

[prhoya]

I think we'll see something different from this team and much better (and more to the norm) tomorrow night against Pitt. For such a young team, an ugly away game at an always tough Marquette, and after the (one of the) longest in-season layoffs I can remember as a Hoya fan, was to be expected.

[nychoya3]

My counter intuitive solution is play Moses Abeyga. I freely admit that Moses has no offensive ability to speak of, however he has no illusions about his abilities which puts him in stark contrast to Mikael who combines the aggression of Moses Malone with the skills of, well, Moses Abeyga.

I haven't done any math to back this up, but I suspect that if Mikael had used half as many possessions as he has this year, our offense would look strikingly more respectable. Every possession that ends with a three pointer by Markel or Otto or Whitt, or anything like that is an improvement.

Otherwise, I like your thoughts. I think we're seeing that Otto has some limitations as a creator. His first step is nothing special. He likes to catch and shoot, and my sense is he has been somewhat less accurate with his mid range this year. Markel is indeed our best offensive player right now, and I wouldn't mind handing him the keys a bit more.

[jgalt]

I do think Moses could help when it comes to rebounding, which would be helpful if the team is going to miss a lot of shots.

[alleninxis]

Go small (I'm to the point I don't think Nate/Mikael need to ever really share time) and play fast(er).

Not holding my breath with the latter.

[bigelephant]

Jan 7, 2013 14:29:18 GMT -5 prhoya said:

I think we'll see something different from this team and much better (and more to the norm) tomorrow night against Pitt. For such a young team, an ugly away game at an always tough Marquette, and after the (one of the) longest in-season layoffs I can remember as a Hoya fan, was to be expected.

I THINK I agree more with prhoya than the other posters.

[SFHoya99]

Jan 7, 2013 14:42:25 GMT -5 nychoya3 said:

My counter intuitive solution is play Moses Abeyga. I freely admit that Moses has no offensive ability to speak of, however he has no illusions about his abilities which puts him in stark contrast to Mikael who combines the aggression of Moses Malone with the skills of, well, Moses Abeyga.

I haven't done any math to back this up, but I suspect that if Mikael had used half as many possessions as he has this year, our offense would look strikingly more respectable. Every possession that ends with a three pointer by Markel or Otto or Whitt, or anything like that is an improvement.

Otherwise, I like your thoughts. I think we're seeing that Otto has some limitations as a creator. His first step is nothing special. He likes to catch and shoot, and my sense is he has been somewhat less accurate with his mid range this year. Markel is indeed our best offensive player right now, and I wouldn't mind handing him the keys a bit more.

It's a thought. If we did that, though, I think there's value to playing Ayegba and Trawick instead of Lubick -- we really need to the spacing and someone who will at least make a respectable play at the three.

Interesting stats relevant to the topic:

• 9.5% -- Mikael Hopkin's defensive rebounding %
  
  
• 40% and 52% -- Otto Porter's 2pt jump shot percentage this year (when many are off the dribble) and last year (when many were catch and shoot).
  
  
• Not including FTs, 35% of attempts are 2pt jumpers, and 30% are 3s. We shoot 37% on the 2s and 33% on the threes. Given that the eFG% of that 33% is actually 50%, it's a huge issue that we are taking so many 2pt jumpers.
  
  Last year's team was no offensive juggernaut, but the split was 31% and 31% (and we shot better from three).
  

[biggmanu]

how about JT3 tells Hop/Nate to kick it out for a 3 whenever they get this urge to take a terribly weak baby hook.

[HometownHoya]

Jan 7, 2013 15:25:09 GMT -5 biggmanu said:

how about JT3 tells Hop/Nate to kick it out for a 3 whenever they get this urge to take a terribly weak baby hook.

Unfortunately we need Nate to take these shots...he already kicks it out immediately. Agree on Hop though, he is just a black hole right now, at this stage of a JTIII Big Man's career, he should be focusing on his passing.

As for what PR is saying about our offense being due to a long layoff for a young team, I would love to agree. Unfortunately, this isn't the first time that we have seen such an offensive ineptitude. While I do believe the team can turn it around and will play better at Pitt, I also believe that we will see offensive performances like this again throughout the year. I trust JTIII to find ways to score in the future when this does happen so we do not have an early exit in March due to horrific offense.

SF pointed out a major issue entirely, Otto isn't a creator. He is a do everything player that will finish if you get him the ball in the right place. His shooting is way down this year because he is trying to do too much instead of letting the shots come to him. As SF mentioned, the way to get better shots is to run the offense more crisply. We need to make harder cuts and run harder while on the court, but this is made more difficult since we essentially go 5-7 deep.

I agree that Markel needs to become selfish with the ball. He needs to attack the hoop until they are helping early so he can dish. He needs to shoot the 3 so they have to play up on him so he can just blow past them. Markel can make defenders pay and needs to, either to his own gain or his teammates.

Finally, I am with the majority that Moses NEEDS to get some time. Yes he seems like he gets lost sometimes but I rarely have I seen it lead to an issue that the other players cannot help him with. His strength is rebounding which has been a weakness for us and he can help against larger post player. He knows better then to try for much on offense but also takes the ball when an easy opportunity is given. Finally, he is the type of player that can get 6-8 points a game off of easy O rebounds and putbacks.

[hoyainspirit]

Interesting thoughts, all. I saw the game on replay, and only watched it once before I erased it. Its seems to me that our D was significantly worse with Nate getting so many minutes at the 5 in the second half. Coach really had no choice given how poorly Hop was playing. Nate getting significant minutes in the post is a problem, though I liked that lineup better than the starting lineup, at least in that game.

[strummer8526]

Jan 7, 2013 14:42:25 GMT -5 nychoya3 said:

My counter intuitive solution is play Moses Abeyga. I freely admit that Moses has no offensive ability to speak of, however he has no illusions about his abilities which puts him in stark contrast to Mikael who combines the aggression of Moses Malone with the skills of, well, Moses Abeyga.

I haven't done any math to back this up, but I suspect that if Mikael had used half as many possessions as he has this year, our offense would look strikingly more respectable. Every possession that ends with a three pointer by Markel or Otto or Whitt, or anything like that is an improvement.

Otherwise, I like your thoughts. I think we're seeing that Otto has some limitations as a creator. His first step is nothing special. He likes to catch and shoot, and my sense is he has been somewhat less accurate with his mid range this year. Markel is indeed our best offensive player right now, and I wouldn't mind handing him the keys a bit more.

You're insulting Moses Malone and Moses Ayegba.

Until Moses (Ayegba) dribbles a ball off his foot while in open space 30 feet from the basket, I will insist that he should be taking some of Hopkins's minutes. Bottom line: Mikael has been worse than ineffective; he's been a detriment. How much worse could Moses (or Hayes or Bolden, for that matter) really be?

[nychoya3]

Strummer, I agree with you. What are you arguing about?

[NCHoya]

I mostly agree with the possible solutions proposed by SF. The most basic and crude reason our offense stinks is because we take way too many of the worst shots in basketball - midrange jumpshots. We get few high % shots in the paint and we are not taking or making the 3s. The midrange is the worst because it is a relatively low % versus a shot in the paint and has only a 2 point value. We are stuck in no man's land right now, so I am all for throwing it up from three, since we will not be getting anything down low.

I would love to see Starks take the leadership role on this team, he has the mental capacity to do it, and he has played about as well as anyone. Since he is the best playing elder, I would like to see him take more initiative for sure.

Going small is interesting, but I do wonder about our ability to rebound and if we could remain a good defensive team. I like what Trawick brings but he does not really solve our offensive issues unless he can create TOs or take it to the basket or somehow improve his outside shooting.

I am all for taking more threes, see above. However, the guys are simply not confident in their shooting. You can see Otto and Whit have not been looking for it. Markel is the one guy I trust to take them and I would think Domingo/DSR should have the green light any time they are in the game. I would love to see it, I just do not know if we will.

Then you have Hopkins who in my mind, as strummer says, is actively destroying value right now. He is taking way too many shots he cannot make and he is not making up for that with outstanding play elsewhere. Sure, he helps on defense, but the offense is hitting a black hole everytime he touches it and basically turns the ball over with a terrible shot.

[strummer8526]

Jan 7, 2013 16:31:42 GMT -5 nychoya3 said:

Strummer, I agree with you. What are you arguing about?

No arguing. Sorry if it came off that way. I think my frustration over Mikael has seeped into my overall attitude towards this team (which, is unfortunate because I really like the general make-up of this squad).

[jgalt]

Jan 7, 2013 16:53:31 GMT -5 NCHoya said:

I mostly agree with the possible solutions proposed by SF. The most basic and crude reason our offense stinks is because we take way too many of the worst shots in basketball - midrange jumpshots. We get few high % shots in the paint and we are not taking or making the 3s. The midrange is the worst because it is a relatively low % versus a shot in the paint and has only a 2 point value. We are stuck in no man's land right now, so I am all for throwing it up from three, since we will not be getting anything down low.

Oh man every game it seems like guys are pump faking 3s and then stepping just inside the three line to take a jump shot. Its so maddening.

[chep3]

I agree with SF entirely. Playing two bigs is killing us when neither can be relied on to create shots. We'd be better off posting Otto and Greg (although he short arms way too many hook shots) with the extra space that would provide. Also, we need to pick and roll people to death with Markel. He does a good job reading the defense coming off those screens, and Hopkins and Nate have shown themselves to be much better options coming off the roll than they are setting up on the block.

Overall, I have concerns about JTIII's offense with this team. We don't shoot it well enough to get the necessary spacing. Also, I think it works best when we have a balanced offensive team. Not that everyone on the floor needs to be able to create, but that everyone on the floor could at least finish. Right now, we have 3 guys who can score in our starting lineup, and essentially 1.5 guys who can score off the bench. I know the idea is that the best shot is the open shot, but it's just too easy to key on the guys who can score on our team and force us into suboptimal looks by our scorers or open looks by non-scorers. We're going to have to force the issue and get the guys who can score the vast majority of the looks. Markel needs to become a high usage player. Mikael needs to become a role player in terms of usage.

[HoyasAreHungry]

The real question is not what, but IF: Do you think III will adapt this year or stick to his guns? History has shown the latter....

[HometownHoya]

Jan 7, 2013 16:14:28 GMT -5 hoyainspirit said:

Interesting thoughts, all. I saw the game on replay, and only watched it once before I erased it. Its seems to me that our D was significantly worse with Nate getting so many minutes at the 5 in the second half. Coach really had no choice given how poorly Hop was playing. Nate getting significant minutes in the post is a problem, though I liked that lineup better than the starting lineup, at least in that game.

This is the reason why Mikeal is still getting quite so many minutes. He is much better at the 5 on defense then Nate. I would rather have Hopkins in and a Top defense then him out and have an OK defense and a slightly better O. He just needs to learn not to shoot ever.