Next Year and Beyond

[Dhall]

If you don't want to read about this topic, go to another thread. Unlike some other recent threads, I am interested in having a rational discussion about the future, not just venting and fighting with each other. Here are a few questions/thoughts:

- Will we be better next year than this year? Factors weighing against are (1) the overall skill level of returning players seems just average; (2) freshmen rarely make a difference, and the incoming freshmen aren't projected as dominant players anyway, even if some may be very good; (3) opposing Big East coaches seem to have a real game plan against JTIII that is working (we are 18-23 in BE last three years). Big factor that might make us better next year: the actual players will be less known to opponents, unlike this year when everyone knows you need to contain Austin and Chris and Jason. I really doubt that coaches will be drawing up game plans for any of the returning players with the exception of Jason, so that could provide a nice window for guys like Markel, Hollis, Vee, Henry, Jabril, Nate. Another factor in favor of improvement: I think next year's Nate and Henry will be more comfortable than this year's Julian with the ball in their hands making decisions. They might not have the scoring ability of Julian, but the offense should run a little smoother with those two guys being another year wiser.

- What about JTIII? Again, we are 18-23 in the Big East the past three years. There is no window-dressing that fact. I pay $1000 per season ticket and I buy 4 tickets, and if this season continues as is, I am sorry but I am not renewing next year. I can donate separately to Georgetown if I'd like without having to pay for unwanted tickets. For the games I'd want to attend, there is no shortage of opportunities to obtain lower level seats at reasonable prices. People don't mind shelling out cash to support a top program, but if we are below average the analysis changes. When donors stop giving and attendance goes down, coaches get on the hot seat. I don't see Georgetown firing JTIII, but in a scenario where this year spirals down and maybe next year we finish below .500 in the BE, I can see a mutual decision for JTIII to leave. He'd be more successful in a new conference where coaches don't know his system and recruiting might be easier, and he could probably make more money even with a so-so BE conference record in recent years. And if Georgetown could find the right coach (either a top recruiter or a top Xs and Os guy), that might get things going in a different direction again.

I haven't said this since Esherick's final year - the program is at a crossroads right now. The good news is that turning things around this year (being ranked, nice BE finish, Sweet Sixteen) would keep us stable for at least a few years and I believe in my heart that it is possible. The bad news: a poor finish this year and next and the program is at square one.

[RDF]

I actually believe next year's team will start moving back to what we saw in '06-'08. III has recruited to fit his system again--and while they'll be a relatively young team-he's going to be much bigger and players can play traditional positions (Hollis at 3 or even some 2). Stated it in another thread-but I like how III has addressed recruiting and he's making changes necessary.

What he's not done to this point in BE play is understand this current group and how badly they need to get away from small ball or adjust his style to fit smaller lineup.

We're in an era where every game is televised, everything is overhyped/overblown so the "crossroads" comment is fitting to that type of mentality. I think it's more simple then that. A coach has to learn that he might have to do things he doesn't feel comfortable doing or like doing to adjust to the roster he has. He's changed to recruit to his system more, but that doesn't help him now--so III has to adapt and alter things. Recruiting is overblown due to "Rankings". Key is to get guys who fit what you like to do as a coach--and he wasn't doing that. He had assistants chasing players they had no shot at or not shot at getting into school, he had too much faith in guards who were all similar but too small, and the blueprint has been out there for him--and he's seeing it--go bigger if you run Princeton and get shooters as guards---or press/run with smaller group. He's addressing one area--he did in the other in non conference but whatever reason--he's not in BE play.

I'm more encouraged by future then I am future of this year's team for that simple reason. If he does go back to what he did in non conference and last segment of Pitt game--I think this team can win some games and get back to being fun to watch. Beauty of College is you arent' stuck with guys forever or have to find places to "move them"--so hang in there--because future is a lot more positive then you think.

[guru]

Jan 13, 2011 11:34:01 GMT -5 RDF said:

I actually believe next year's team will start moving back to what we saw in '06-'08. III has recruited to fit his system again--and while they'll be a relatively young team-he's going to be much bigger and players can play traditional positions (Hollis at 3 or even some 2). Stated it in another thread-but I like how III has addressed recruiting and he's making changes necessary.

What he's not done to this point in BE play is understand this current group and how badly they need to get away from small ball or adjust his style to fit smaller lineup.

We're in an era where every game is televised, everything is overhyped/overblown so the "crossroads" comment is fitting to that type of mentality. I think it's more simple then that. A coach has to learn that he might have to do things he doesn't feel comfortable doing or like doing to adjust to the roster he has. He's changed to recruit to his system more, but that doesn't help him now--so III has to adapt and alter things. Recruiting is overblown due to "Rankings". Key is to get guys who fit what you like to do as a coach--and he wasn't doing that. He had assistants chasing players they had no shot at or not shot at getting into school, he had too much faith in guards who were all similar but too small, and the blueprint has been out there for him--and he's seeing it--go bigger if you run Princeton and get shooters as guards---or press/run with smaller group. He's addressing one area--he did in the other in non conference but whatever reason--he's not in BE play.

I'm more encouraged by future then I am future of this year's team for that simple reason. If he does go back to what he did in non conference and last segment of Pitt game--I think this team can win some games and get back to being fun to watch. Beauty of College is you arent' stuck with guys forever or have to find places to "move them"--so hang in there--because future is a lot more positive then you think.

Love the sudden positivity, but bipolar much? Seems to me that folks are getting a little too excited about the final nine minutes last night - we were already down by like 20 points and Pitt pretty much went into prevent mode. And we still lost by 15!

I think the team can turn this around and still be pretty good this season. But not because of what I saw over the last nine minutes of garbage time last night.

[Dhall]

Jan 13, 2011 11:34:01 GMT -5 RDF said:

I actually believe next year's team will start moving back to what we saw in '06-'08. III has recruited to fit his system again--and while they'll be a relatively young team-he's going to be much bigger and players can play traditional positions (Hollis at 3 or even some 2). Stated it in another thread-but I like how III has addressed recruiting and he's making changes necessary.

What he's not done to this point in BE play is understand this current group and how badly they need to get away from small ball or adjust his style to fit smaller lineup.

We're in an era where every game is televised, everything is overhyped/overblown so the "crossroads" comment is fitting to that type of mentality. I think it's more simple then that. A coach has to learn that he might have to do things he doesn't feel comfortable doing or like doing to adjust to the roster he has. He's changed to recruit to his system more, but that doesn't help him now--so III has to adapt and alter things. Recruiting is overblown due to "Rankings". Key is to get guys who fit what you like to do as a coach--and he wasn't doing that. He had assistants chasing players they had no shot at or not shot at getting into school, he had too much faith in guards who were all similar but too small, and the blueprint has been out there for him--and he's seeing it--go bigger if you run Princeton and get shooters as guards---or press/run with smaller group. He's addressing one area--he did in the other in non conference but whatever reason--he's not in BE play.

I'm more encouraged by future then I am future of this year's team for that simple reason. If he does go back to what he did in non conference and last segment of Pitt game--I think this team can win some games and get back to being fun to watch. Beauty of College is you arent' stuck with guys forever or have to find places to "move them"--so hang in there--because future is a lot more positive then you think.

RDF - If what you say is true, that would be good. But two questions: Which of the recruits are you referring to in your post and how do you see them?

[superan]

I really think the key to success for the Georgetown offense (can we stop calling it the Princeton offense?), and I'm echoing some of what RDF said, is having a great inside presence and working our way out. That is the most reliable method of success that we have seen from a JTIII team. We play a half-court style that really benefits from having someone that can post up and make the pass to the open shooter or the cutter coming from the weak side. Jeff did this, then Roy did this and then Greg (2nd year) did this extremely well. That inside presence collapses the defense and gets us open 3s or open cutters because the defense is no longer spaced properly. The Georgetown offense is all about layups and 3 pointers (the most efficient shooting spots on the floor) and a reliable, smart inside presence gives us opportunities for both of those.

This year and Monroe's first year are the two years we didn't have a center/PF as a leader that the offense ran through and that caused issues in conference play against teams that knew our gameplan. Both of those years we performed very well against non-conference teams and collapsed once conference play really got going.

Next year we have Adams and Hopkins coming in to make us more weighted towards the interior and I believe that is a good thing.

[BubbleVisionBiff]

Share your frustrations Dhall. Sitting next to two guys in Pitt jerseys last night wasn't encouraging. But my wife laughed out loud at me when I said this morning I was thinking of not renewing. My brother, who just moved here, would kill me.

But I agree with RDF that things could be brighter since III is adjusting his recruiting to the system and the conference.

I thin you know what certain teams/coaches/systems are "supposed" to look like or have. When Carolina is good, for example, they have an active big body on the block, an elite quick PG and a good wing scorer/slasher. They have about 6 guys in the latter category, and nothing in the other two. So they suck. Illinois is playing better because Weber is getting the good play from 3 guards he needs. Cuse is tough when Boewhine has length on the back line for the zone.
And we're great when we have length on the back line, for both offensive and defensive purposes. It's been said ad nauseum, but the lack on consistent post scoring makes it easier to push out on our shooters and clog the lanes because no one has to come help defend on a post threat. And a 7'2" center does erase a lot of mistakes on the other end.

I feel a lot better knowing that we have Adams (6'9"), Hopkins (6'10') Bolden (6'10"), all on the way along with hopefully some possible combination of Ochefu/Ware/Porter. We are going to be ridiculously long, if nothing else. We won't be able to talk about lack of bigs, that's for sure. And that's a positive development.

Henry (who was great on O Boards in first half), Nate and Moses will continue to develop. I think Nate will be very good by the time he is done. As many have said, he contributes a lot without scoring, and just seems to understand what is going on.

And I feel a lot better about Bowen and Trawick fighting through screens with their length than some of the current group. I think we can be a better defensive club.

And the press has been--when it is actually used--a great addition to the game plan.

[Dhall]

A big guy who commanded a double-team would certainly open things up for the rest of the offense (Monroe, Hibbert, Green)! But that's a lot to ask of freshmen coming in next year and I don't see them scoring in bunches from the reports on the Recruiting page.

[SirSaxa]

DHall, I think all Hoya fans share your disappointment with the current team. But when I look at JT3's tenure here, the players returning next year, and the incoming recruits I can't see any reason to even be talking about hiring someone else.

While your BE W-L record over the recent 3 seasons is accurate, we also went 3-1 in the BET last year, coming within a last second basket of winning the title. And, we were a 3 seed in the NCAA's -- equivalent to a Top 12 national ranking on the season. The Ohio loss was clearly devastating, but the season -- to me -- was not a total loss with wins over Nova, Cuse and NCAA finalists Butler and Duke. I can't think of a program in the country that would be contemplating changing coaches with that track record... not to mention JT3's overall record of 151-67, a 70% winning percentage that includes a Final Four.

Two weeks ago we were ranked in the Top Ten in the nation.

Yes, we have had a horrible start to the BE season. And yes, we've had some big disappointments in recent years. IMHO, the balance is still very heavily weighted in JT3's favor. Not to mention, good graduation rates and no recruiting scandals.

Next year? We'll be much bigger and more talented up front. Let's see if Henry doesn't continue to improve. Nate will be a soph. I fully expect Moses to be a significant contributor. Tyler Adams should get minutes early too. Those guys will make us FAR bigger and tougher up front -- something VERY important to BE success.

Hollis will be a junior, playing his natural position -- SF. And our guards will consist of at least the trio of Jason, Vee and Markel. Will they be as good as Jason, AF and CW? I guess we'll have to wait and see. And the above doesn't count possible contributions from Trawick, Bowen and Hopkins.

There is still time to turn this season around. JT3 is a very smart guy and he has some terrific advisors in Coaches Pete C and JT2, among others. I am confident he is going to figure this out.

What you choose to do about your tickets is up to you of course, and I share your concerns about this season though I still hope for a big turnaournd.

As for the long term prospects for Hoya Hoops, I continue to have confidence in JT3. I don't know if that perspective helps you at all, but it seems pretty realistic to me. Hang in there DHall. Hoya Saxa!

[SFHoya99]

It's fairly apparent that the class coming in next year, especially, is an attempt to rectify some of the issues we've had in terms of roster contruction.

We've had struggles going back to when Hibbert left in terms of simply having height. Height is invaluable in basketball. Just being tall is a huge advantage. Yes, you just can't grab tall guys. But you can see a difference in a good tall shooter like Abromaitis and a good shorter one like Freeman.

If you're tall, you're shot isn't bothered by shorter guys. On D, you don't need to be as quick because you can play off and close better. And you bother shorter shooters. In the interior, it's a HUGE thing to be able to alter shots without jumping. Look at the number of fouls our bigs get and the number of times Julian tries to block a shot already past him and the opponent gets the O board.

So we're going to have a ton of big guys fighting for minutes and the best ones will play - Lubick, Adams, Hopkins, Bolden, Ayegba and Sims for a year. Add in Hollis moving to the three, perhaps, and perhaps some more size at the 2 at some point (Bowen and Trawick) and the potential for a strong D team is there.

I'd still be happier with a taller center (Ochefu).

--------------

It's funny, but I'd actually recruit away from III's strengths a bit. Recruit athleticism and big guys. Teach them the rest. I think that's a lot of why we succeeded early. Pat Ewing Jr wasn't ideal for the system, but he brought things that others didn't have. There's a balance there.

[chep3]

Next year, unless Hollis and Jason make a real big jump, I think we're going to struggle offensively.

That being said, I think we're going to be a much much better defensive team. We will likely start Markel/Vee, Jason, Hollis, Nate, and Henry. That's a much bigger lineup, which should help us be more solid on the boards and be better with our defensive pressure. When Vee and Jason are in the backcourt, we'll have length throughout the entire 5 spots, which should make our zone a palatable option. We'll have depth inside (at least as much as we do now) with Moses, Jerrelle, and whatever the frosh can offer. And if Aaron develops, we'll add a long and athletic 2.

I don't know where the buckets are going to come from next year. But I expect us to be a considerably better defensive team.

[skyhoya]

recruiting is the MAJOR job function of the head coach, without talent, you can't win big time. III recruits like we are in the A-10. We're in the BIG East. Where are the bigs? They aren't there in next year's recruiting class. The big man by committee didn't work this year. Where is the new freshman scoring guard who can make his own shot?, there isn't a guard on our current team that can make his own shot, too short and too slow

[TBird41]

Jan 13, 2011 13:51:58 GMT -5 skyhoya said:

recruiting is the MAJOR job function of the head coach, without talent, you can't win big time. III recruits like we are in the A-10. We're in the BIG East. Where are the bigs? They aren't there in next year's recruiting class. The big man by committee didn't work this year. Where is the new freshman scoring guard who can make his own shot?, there isn't a guard on our current team that can make his own shot, too short and too slow

Do you know the names of the players in next year's recruiting class? Or their positions/height? Your comment seems to imply that you do not.

[saxagael]

I was rather impressed with the limited play Moses got in the pre-conference games. His inside game seemed to show strength and athleticism that is lacking right now. The downside the the Georgetown system takes time to learn and outside skills that take time as well. Thinking Henry and Moses at center w/ Nate at PF (and good range of shooting skills once he has the green light to shoot) will be a nice change up and a better match to the more physical half court of the Big East.

[gujake]

Jan 13, 2011 12:42:16 GMT -5 SFHoya99 said:

It's funny, but I'd actually recruit away from III's strengths a bit. Recruit athleticism and big guys. Teach them the rest. I think that's a lot of why we succeeded early. Pat Ewing Jr wasn't ideal for the system, but he brought things that others didn't have. There's a balance there.

Yes, yes, yes.

JT3 has proven that he can teach guys how to be better offensive players. But you can't teach athleticism/height, and let's be honest - it doesn't seem like he is extremely good at teaching defense. Recruit guys who already have a tough, defensive (and/or rebounding) mindset and teach them offense.

[strummer8526]

Jan 13, 2011 14:07:53 GMT -5 saxagael said:

I was rather impressed with the limited play Moses got in the pre-conference games. His inside game seemed to show strength and athleticism that is lacking right now. The downside the the Georgetown system takes time to learn and outside skills that take time as well. Thinking Henry and Moses at center w/ Nate at PF (and good range of shooting skills once he has the green light to shoot) will be a nice change up and a better match to the more physical half court of the Big East.

Moses did show skill. And he looked confident. If things keep going as they have been, I would love to see him get some run. Let's just see what he can generate for us? Any chance we EVER see Moses and Henry at the 4 and 5? That would be an intimidating pair of trees to run into.

[skyhoya]

Tbird 41, I've watched two of them with my own eyes. Jabril Trawick and Mikael Hopkins are tooth picks and I doubet if Adams can get in, another Braswell, love to have him, if he can get in.

[chep3]

Jan 13, 2011 16:03:10 GMT -5 skyhoya said:

Tbird 41, I've watched two of them with my own eyes. Jabril Trawick and Mikael Hopkins are tooth picks and I doubet if Adams can get in, another Braswell, love to have him, if he can get in.

Wow, this is strong speculation. I'll just say that I presume that if he committed to Duke and to us, we'll be ok with getting him in.

[professorhoya]

Jan 13, 2011 11:22:19 GMT -5 Dhall said:

- What about JTIII? Again, we are 18-23 in the Big East the past three years. There is no window-dressing that fact. I pay $1000 per season ticket and I buy 4 tickets, and if this season continues as is, I am sorry but I am not renewing next year. I can donate separately to Georgetown if I'd like without having to pay for unwanted tickets. For the games I'd want to attend, there is no shortage of opportunities to obtain lower level seats at reasonable prices. People don't mind shelling out cash to support a top program, but if we are below average the analysis changes. When donors stop giving and attendance goes down, coaches get on the hot seat. I don't see Georgetown firing JTIII, but in a scenario where this year spirals down and maybe next year we finish below .500 in the BE, I can see a mutual decision for JTIII to leave. He'd be more successful in a new conference where coaches don't know his system and recruiting might be easier, and he could probably make more money even with a so-so BE conference record in recent years. And if Georgetown could find the right coach (either a top recruiter or a top Xs and Os guy), that might get things going in a different direction again.

I haven't said this since Esherick's final year - the program is at a crossroads right now. The good news is that turning things around this year (being ranked, nice BE finish, Sweet Sixteen) would keep us stable for at least a few years and I believe in my heart that it is possible. The bad news: a poor finish this year and next and the program is at square one.

Be careful what you ask for.

Iowa fans ran high profile coach Steve Alford out of town.
Guess what. His successor, Todd Lichleter was horrible and the team became bottom dwellers while Alford led New Mexico to the NCAA tourney.
Now they have Fran Lichleter and are again non competitive.

When the fans start running coaches and players out of town, nobody wants to go there. What head coach or player would want to come here with fans who are quick to point fingers. (ex. Wright sucks, Markel is awesome, start him now.)

To be honest, not many high profile coaches are going to want to come here. And a young, inexperienced coach is going to have a hard time building a program and attracting players.

It's the case of killing the golden goose that laid the golden egg. Too much pessimism. Last season was a good season, and they made a run in the BET and beat Duke and Butler. But some see the glass as half empty.

[SFHoya99]

Professor, Big +1 to you. I personally think JTIII is a good coach, but I think people are crazy when they think that there's a better than even chance that his replacement would be better at GU. You'd have to get ridiculously lucky, basically.

[FrazierFanatic]

Jan 13, 2011 16:24:17 GMT -5 professorhoya said:

Jan 13, 2011 11:22:19 GMT -5 Dhall said:

- What about JTIII? Again, we are 18-23 in the Big East the past three years. There is no window-dressing that fact. I pay $1000 per season ticket and I buy 4 tickets, and if this season continues as is, I am sorry but I am not renewing next year. I can donate separately to Georgetown if I'd like without having to pay for unwanted tickets. For the games I'd want to attend, there is no shortage of opportunities to obtain lower level seats at reasonable prices. People don't mind shelling out cash to support a top program, but if we are below average the analysis changes. When donors stop giving and attendance goes down, coaches get on the hot seat. I don't see Georgetown firing JTIII, but in a scenario where this year spirals down and maybe next year we finish below .500 in the BE, I can see a mutual decision for JTIII to leave. He'd be more successful in a new conference where coaches don't know his system and recruiting might be easier, and he could probably make more money even with a so-so BE conference record in recent years. And if Georgetown could find the right coach (either a top recruiter or a top Xs and Os guy), that might get things going in a different direction again.

I haven't said this since Esherick's final year - the program is at a crossroads right now. The good news is that turning things around this year (being ranked, nice BE finish, Sweet Sixteen) would keep us stable for at least a few years and I believe in my heart that it is possible. The bad news: a poor finish this year and next and the program is at square one.

Be careful what you ask for.

Iowa fans ran high profile coach Steve Alford out of town.
Guess what. His successor, Todd Lichleter was horrible and the team became bottom dwellers while Alford led New Mexico to the NCAA tourney.
Now they have Fran Lichleter and are again non competitive.

When the fans start running coaches and players out of town, nobody wants to go there. What head coach or player would want to come here with fans who are quick to point fingers. (ex. Wright sucks, Markel is awesome, start him now.)

To be honest, not many high profile coaches are going to want to come here. And a young, inexperienced coach is going to have a hard time building a program and attracting players.

It's the case of killing the golden goose that laid the golden egg. Too much pessimism. Last season was a good season, and they made a run in the BET and beat Duke and Butler. But some see the glass as half empty.

For sake of accuracy, it's Fran McCaffrey, not Licheter, and it is his first year; based on his track record Iowa will be much better in a couple of years. But your point about being careful when you want a coach gone is well taken, there are many disasters that have followed coaching changes.