Boz
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
123 Fireballs!
Posts: 10,355
|
Post by Boz on Oct 21, 2009 12:16:08 GMT -5
Dede Scozzafava is most decidedly NOT a Republican in the mold of John McCain.
I don't know if there are a whole lot of people making that comparison at all.
Sure, McCain is a moderate and definitely not a favorite of conservatives, but Scozzafava is ridiculous. I really can't see very many issues where she is a Republican at all.
When Markos Moulitsas calls her (pretty accurately) the most liberal candidate in the three-way race, well I don't really think conservatives are being small tent-ish by saying, "Thanks, but no thanks."
|
|
|
Post by jerseyhoya34 on Oct 21, 2009 12:23:05 GMT -5
That may be the case. I was reacting to Rosslyn's characterization. If John McCain is a moderate Republican, Schumer is a moderate Democrat. I have not followed the politics of the NY race apart from knowing that it appears to be a cluster and was such from the beginning. Some of the original Republican candidates, who are good people*, switched over to be considered for the Democratic nomination, partly to splinter the conservative landscape and turn the debate into one among conservatives. It appears as though they've achieved that objective. I think both parties can agree that it would be a great district to represent. I can think of few others in the northeast with such charm and splendor as one could find in the Adirondacks. That being said, I can also think of few others in the northeast in the same economic condition. There is some wealth, undoubtedly, but some parts of the district have not seen a sustained economic boom, even in the 1990's. Small business owners up there need some relief.** * I say that because I know one of them. **This is not a matter of simply blaming Paterson. The place was a mess under Pataki too.
|
|
rosslynhoya
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 2,595
|
Post by rosslynhoya on Oct 21, 2009 12:43:00 GMT -5
**This is not a matter of simply blaming Paterson. The place was a mess under Pataki too. You're forgetting someone And I'll stand by my characterization of John McCain. Scoring shows Dede agreeing with the party line in Albany something like 95% of the time. The problem is that like John McCain, when she disagrees with her party (environment, taxes, labor) she seems to disagree rather vehemently. John McCain and his assault on free speech, the Bush tax cuts, the Gang of Fourteen, TARP/the Stimulus, Kyoto, arms control, spawning Lindsay Graham... it's going to take a lot of Dems/independents to save him in the primary next year.
|
|
|
Post by jerseyhoya34 on Oct 21, 2009 12:52:18 GMT -5
I'm afraid John McCain did not spawn Lindsay Graham. The spawning began during the impeachment process, during which Graham served as an impeachment manager in the House. He has been moderate enough to disagree with his party 7% of the time this year and flip pancakes in NH in the meanwhile.
|
|
Boz
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
123 Fireballs!
Posts: 10,355
|
Post by Boz on Oct 21, 2009 17:35:26 GMT -5
Speaking of NY-23, this is pretty funny. Saw this on RedState this afternoon:
You don't really have to watch the video for more than a few seconds, it's just a very funny visual.
Actually, I don't know the details and if her opponents really have been ducking a debate, but I can say I agree with Scozzafava, in principle, on what she is saying here.
Still...funny.
|
|
EasyEd
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 7,272
|
Post by EasyEd on Oct 23, 2009 8:54:30 GMT -5
|
|
Boz
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
123 Fireballs!
Posts: 10,355
|
Post by Boz on Oct 23, 2009 13:48:30 GMT -5
Scozzafava is officially toast. The question remains whether she and the RNC/NRCC will recognize this and have her bow out, or whether she will stay in and split the vote. Why is she toast? Virtually every conservative endorsement has gone to Hoffman. The one exception being Newt Gingrich, and I have a feeling, after today, Newt may either back out of his endorsement or go whole hog and switch it to Hoffman. In addition to the Palin, Forbes and other important endorsements for Hoffman over the last couple of days, the rumor today is that Dede is channeling campaign funds to her sister-in-law's company, a company that was not even incorporated until after Scozzafava became the Republican nominee.* This, needless to say, is not good. (* I will grant that only Erick Erickson is reporting this right now, as far as I know, and he definitely has an axe to grind with Scozzafava, but it sure as hell doesn't look good with the election coming up. Erickson definitely would not have made this up, but he definitely WOULD overstate its significance, to be sure.) There is simply no way Scozzafava wins this election. Hoffman could have a good shot at it if she gets out of the way. If not, this is a W in the Democratic column.
|
|
|
Post by Coast2CoastHoya on Oct 23, 2009 15:23:03 GMT -5
I've got nothing to say about VA's or NJ's gubernatorial elections other than MAN I'm glad I don't live in VA or NJ.
|
|
hoyaalf
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
I like what your doing very much. Why squirrel hate me?
Posts: 688
|
Post by hoyaalf on Oct 23, 2009 19:05:37 GMT -5
Amen, Brother Coast!
Bando!
Quick!
More aboot Canada!
|
|
EasyEd
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 7,272
|
Post by EasyEd on Oct 26, 2009 10:03:05 GMT -5
|
|
kchoya
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Enter your message here...
Posts: 9,934
|
Post by kchoya on Oct 26, 2009 10:32:23 GMT -5
I've got nothing to say about VA's or NJ's gubernatorial elections other than MAN I'm glad I don't live in VA or NJ. That would be like living in a place where Marion Barry keeps getting elected. ;D
|
|
Bando
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
I've got some regrets!
Posts: 2,431
|
Post by Bando on Oct 26, 2009 15:52:42 GMT -5
I've got nothing to say about VA's or NJ's gubernatorial elections other than MAN I'm glad I don't live in VA or NJ. That would be like living in a place where Marion Barry keeps getting elected. ;D To be fair, he hasn't won a citywide election since 1994. And frankly, he couldn't today if he tried. Also re NY-23, there's currently 2 Republican representatives in NY, and none in New England. One would think the GOP would want to abate the trend of becoming a purely southern party, despite any unorthodoxy by Scozzafava.
|
|
Boz
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
123 Fireballs!
Posts: 10,355
|
Post by Boz on Oct 26, 2009 17:30:24 GMT -5
Given that Scozzafava almost ran in the election AS a Democrat, I think that she's a little more than unorthodox.
She says she will be a vote for Boehner, but it's hard to believe that, given some of her positions.
But she's not going to win anyway. Polling is sort of all over the place on this election, but none of it has her winning.
|
|
|
Post by jerseyhoya34 on Oct 26, 2009 22:51:07 GMT -5
What's strange is Scozzafava, except for the curiously-timed Club for Growth poll, is consistently polling in 2nd with Hoffman behind. Knowing what I know about the folks in NY-23, they care less about the election than we do because they are distruShut upl of government more than they are conservatives (or liberals), if that makes sense.
That being said, the election is just a gold mine for comedy, including this gem from former Senator Thompson, via TalkingPointsMemo (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O2qxg0gLnKc&feature=player_embedded). A war for the heart of the Republican Party is being waged in this district, and neither Republican may end up winning.
|
|
Boz
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
123 Fireballs!
Posts: 10,355
|
Post by Boz on Oct 27, 2009 9:36:10 GMT -5
Why is the Club For Growth poll "curiously timed"?
You can say you don't trust their numbers (I'm not sure I do either), because they are a conservative group, just as I don't trust many Daily Kos polls, but I don't think anyone should be surprised that a number of groups (including Kos) are going to be polling on this race, which has gained a lot of national attention, right up until election day.
Another poll by a conservative group today (or maybe it came out yesterday) also has Hoffman leading.
I always find it interesting how different groups can come up with such different results. I know Jon Stewart did a thing on that recently, but I'm not talking about non-scientific polls conducted by a news network like MSNBC or Fox. Particularly since those polls tend to be issue-oriented and the questions definitely are slanted.
How do you slant a poll of "who would you vote for among these three" though? Seems pretty straightforward. So why such different results, depending on the conservative/liberal nature of the polling group? Are the pollsters using happy voices when they say Hoffman's name and using low, evil, Satanic voices when saying the names of the other candidates, or vice versa? Are they describing (or perhaps misrepresenting) the positions of the candidates before they ask for a response?
That part to me is very curious, but not the timing. I expect a volume of polls over the next week.
Another example would be the poll in NJ that somehow has Corzine up by 9 points. I'm not saying Corzine won't win, but if he wins by anything close to 9 points, I'll eat my hat.
|
|
TC
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 9,459
|
Post by TC on Oct 27, 2009 9:43:55 GMT -5
How do you slant a poll of "who would you vote for among these three" though? Seems pretty straightforward. - crazy likely voter models - underrepresenting demographic groups - being completely bogus and just making numbers up out of thin air (see: Strategic Vision)
|
|
EasyEd
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 7,272
|
Post by EasyEd on Oct 27, 2009 10:47:31 GMT -5
|
|
SFHoya99
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 17,791
Member is Online
|
Post by SFHoya99 on Oct 27, 2009 13:59:31 GMT -5
You can also put a lot into phrasing. Leaving certain people out as other, putting adjectives in there, placing one first consistently, etc.
|
|
Boz
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
123 Fireballs!
Posts: 10,355
|
Post by Boz on Oct 29, 2009 13:21:08 GMT -5
Even Daily Kos has it a close race in NY-23.....between Owens and Hoffman, that is. www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/10/28/NY/408DeDe is DeadDead. Sorry, Newt. You definitely backed the wrong horse in this one. (I respect Newt's rationale, that the Republicans in NY, not national Republicans, should be the ones who choose their candidate. However, this was not a normal selection process with a primary, so I think that damages his argument in this specific case).
|
|
|
Post by jerseyhoya34 on Oct 31, 2009 12:21:45 GMT -5
Scozza has suspended her campaign, and the NRCC will get behind Hoffman. Scozza's name will still appear on the ballot.
|
|