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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Oct 6, 2009 12:13:10 GMT -5
The interesting thing about the polls in the New Jersey race (at least to me) are not the numbers between Christie and Corzine. They're still in a dead heat, and I'm guessing they are going to remain so up to Election Day. No, the interesting thing is that the numbers for both of them have plummeted into the high 30s, while Independent Chris Daggett is now up to 17 in the polls...up 10 points from a week or two ago. It'll be REAL interesting to see if Daggett can gain any more on either of them in the finals weeks. If he continues to rise like this, there might actually be a legitimate three-way race. When's the last time we had one of those??? This may not be the last one, but the first one to come to mind is the Ventura-Coleman-X race in Minnesota. Maybe you could count the Lieberman-Lamont-X race in Connecticut, but my recollection is that the Republicans (officially) put up a placeholder rather than a bona fide candidate.
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Oct 6, 2009 12:15:41 GMT -5
This may not be the last one, but the first one to come to mind is the Ventura-Coleman-X race in Minnesota. Sorry, I meant a three-way race NOT involving a crazy person. (yeah, that rules you out too, Ross Perot!) ;D
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Oct 6, 2009 12:16:58 GMT -5
This may not be the last one, but the first one to come to mind is the Ventura-Coleman-X race in Minnesota. Sorry, I meant a three-way race NOT involving a crazy person. (yeah, that rules you out too, Ross Perot!) ;D Who is the crazy person in your analysis? On my edit, I came up with Lieberman-Lamont-X in Connecticut, but I don't recall X being a legitimate candidate with more than luke warm backing from the state party. The election result was more or less 50-40-10.
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Oct 6, 2009 12:28:05 GMT -5
Jesse Ventura is a nutjob. I liken his election to the one Eddie Murphy described for Jessie Jackson in his first stand up special, Delerious. I'm pretty sure people voted for Jesse as a goof....then they woke up, saw the papers the next day and said "He F***ING WON? But back to the topic. Are you still in New Jersey, Ambassador? I know a lot about the Virginia race, but not as much about NJ. I'd be interested to hear from someone with ears on the ground there the reason for this really big spike, when Daggett had been languishing in single digits or maybe up to 10 or 11 in most polls. It could be an outlier, sure, but I'm just curious. It can't be a huge ad buy, since Daggett has no real money. I suppose it could be a couple of key endorsements. ...or, I suppose it's very likely that New Jerseyans are really just sick of both Corzine and Christie. If that's the case, then maybe Daggett does have a real shot.
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Oct 6, 2009 12:38:09 GMT -5
I am not in NJ to have my ear to the ground, but here's my take.
One factor may have been the endorsement of Daggett by the Sierra Club if only to give him some attention and gravitas, when the Sierra Club has traditionally been supportive of Democrats in New Jersey, including Corzine up to a point. Now, it may be asked whether the Sierra Club is that important in NJ, and you may have something. I think it is more important than you might expect given interests in the ocean, the state parks, and Delaware Water Gap. Is this to say that NJ is overly conscious environmentally? Of course not, but you do have a population of reliable single issue voters who will canvass, etc.
There is some fatigue there with Christie. He has been in the news for several years now and hyped up to a degree as the next significant Republican from NJ. Now that things do not seem to be matching up, there is a bit of a collective sigh if I had to guess.
Looking at the poll, there is not much change in opinions on Corzine but you are getting movement in Christie's favorability numbers, which then affects the horse race.
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EasyEd
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Post by EasyEd on Oct 6, 2009 13:15:16 GMT -5
In Virginia it's interesting that, at this point in time, McDonnell (governor), Republican Bolling (lieutenant governor) and the Republican who's running for Attorney General but whose name escapes this old codger, are all ahead. Of course, there is always the possibility of an October surprise from the Washington Post.
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theexorcist
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Post by theexorcist on Oct 6, 2009 13:29:22 GMT -5
In Virginia it's interesting that, at this point in time, McDonnell (governor), Republican Bolling (lieutenant governor) and the Republican who's running for Attorney General but whose name escapes this old codger, are all ahead. Of course, there is always the possibility of an October surprise from the Washington Post. Ken Cuccinelli.
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theexorcist
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Post by theexorcist on Oct 7, 2009 8:07:42 GMT -5
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Oct 7, 2009 12:08:53 GMT -5
I think we've been focusing on the wrong elections. While everyone has had eyes on New Jersey and Virginia, the race we should be paying attention to is the Memphis mayoral race!! www.memphisflyer.com/JacksonBaker/archives/2009/10/07/finally-a-mayoral-forum-with-charactersWhile I am quite certain that hifi will support Leo Awgowhat, and while I find both the attire and the tinfoil rantings of Prince Mongo to be intriguing (and I would like to subscribe to his newsletter), I think the candidate we have to support is Mr. Ernie Lunati. Who doesn't want someone in office who supports lower taxes, cutting government waste AND prostitutes? ;D
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Oct 7, 2009 12:30:16 GMT -5
There appears to be a 3 party race in NY-23 this November with a conservative third party candidate in a traditionally Republican district. Latest polling is 35-28-16 in favor of the Republican. Quick math suggests there are several undecideds.
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Oct 11, 2009 12:41:04 GMT -5
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Oct 20, 2009 18:29:34 GMT -5
Unless The Washington Post has a smoking gun or they come out with some Kevin Pollack-ish "No, no. We strenuously endorse Creigh Deeds," deal sometime soon, Virginia looks to be over, and over in emphatic fashion.
Republicans should sweep all of the state-wide races and pretty easily, barring some miracle.*
New Jersey still a straight up dead heat though. Send in the lawyers!!!
(*Of course, as much as this pleases me for many policy reasons, McDonnell and the Republican legislature still won't repeal the fascist smoking ban in my now-home state though. Frakkin' wussies!)
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Oct 20, 2009 18:35:48 GMT -5
Agreed - VA is moving toward Republican victory barring Governor Sanford-like meltdown. Deeds has not enjoyed the extra boost that he had just before the primary election. Not much energy there from the Democratic/independent base that was there in 2008.
NJ is the kind of race that may not even be resolved on Election Day or one that is just impossible to predict with any kind of reliability. With moderately viable third party candidates, you never know whether there will be the last second flight to a candidate with a reasonable chance of winning (i.e. Christie or Corzine). Daggett is also 6 or 7 spots down on the ballot, so he is not going to get much help from people who might not otherwise know him. One thing is for certain. The scum-slinging will continue until Election Day, and it is a matter of whose scum stinks more at that point. Corzine has all kinds of money to dump in, which weighs in his favor at least from the point of view of winning an election.
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EasyEd
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Post by EasyEd on Oct 20, 2009 19:16:01 GMT -5
I don't think Virginia is a lock for the Repubs but I'm a pessimist. During the Democratic primary the Washington Post endorsed Deeds over McAuliffe and Moran. Prior to that time Deeds was off the radar but the endorsement pushed him way over the top. This week the Post endorsed Deeds over McDonnell and it's too early to see what impact that had. And, as I said before, don't be surprised if the Post comes up with an October surprise. Also Bill Clinton made an appearance for Deeds today and the President will put in an appearance next week for Deeds.
Also note the Post endorsed Jody Wagner who is -- guess -- a Democrat. I don't think they have endorsed anyone for Attorney General but how much money would anyone like to put up that they endorse Steve Shannon who is -- guess -- a Democrat.
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Oct 20, 2009 22:36:10 GMT -5
I am pretty much a pessimist too, ed -- or at least a cynic, or perhaps just a miserable misanthrope, who knows? -- but I think the reason that I feel like this race isn't going to close in the final weeks is not so much McDonnell, but Deeds. He has no traction at all.
The poll with McDonnell up 19 points is from today, after the (fairly worthless) WP endorsement. I think people who may have been influenced by that have already read it (plus, the VA Republican party had a pretty effective response ad, basically pointing out all of the bad things the Post had said about Deeds). The WP nod was big in the primaries, yes, but that was a surprise endorsement. I don't think there is a single Virginia resident who thought the Post didn't support Deeds and wasn't going to endorse him in the general election after their efforts to blow up McDonnell's campaign. The only surprise would have been if the WP's endorsement had been, "OK, we tried, but in the immortal words of Gordon Gekko, this turkey is totally brain dead, so we're going with McDonnell."
Yes, I could be wrong, the polls could be wrong, there could be a massive off-year GOTV effort, and it could swing, but as I said, it would take a miracle. I'm not even sure a WP smoking gun would turn it because Deeds is just flatlining.
Maybe the other VA races I am calling too soon, but I have a feeling Deeds isn't going to inspire great turnout, so that's an advantage for the Republicans who are leading on the down ballot.
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Bando
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Post by Bando on Oct 21, 2009 5:47:43 GMT -5
I'm interested in the NY23 election, where it seems that GOP purity trolls will hand the seat to the Dems. Keep growing that big tent!
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rosslynhoya
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Post by rosslynhoya on Oct 21, 2009 7:43:11 GMT -5
I'm interested in the NY23 election, where it seems that GOP purity trolls will hand the seat to the Dems. Keep growing that big tent! I'd normally agree with this sentiment, but the party insiders' pick to run for one of the most reliably Republican/conservative districts in the country is a Republican in the mode of John McCain or Arlen Specter or Lincoln Chaffee. There's no way that Dede could have won a primary race for the seat, and the local party faithful have something of a legitimate grievance. Oh, and she also seems rather shrill and unlikeable, but that's a rather petty footnote to the problem. What's really amusing though is the number of lib-prog blogs that have started screaming, "Ignore NJ or VA, they're not representative of the country, NY-23 is the real litmus test for Obama!"
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Oct 21, 2009 9:01:33 GMT -5
So, if a Democratic congressional candidate came out and said she was pro-life, supported the war in Iraq and a troop surge in Afghanistan, accepted fundraising from Americans for Tax Reform and said she would not vote for Obama's stimulus package or health care proposals, are you trying to say that the liberals in the party would still support her over an independent candidate more to their liking?
I really don't think so. For all the talk about how conservatives don't like RINOs (and we don't), there is also a pretty good track record of the liberals in the Democratic party treating conservative Democrats like dirt too.
If there had been a real Republican primary for that seat, Dede Scozzafava wouldn't have stood a chance.
The mistake that is happening now is not that conservatives are supporting Hoffman, it's that the RNC won't recognize a failed candidate when they see one and continue to back the dead horse that is Scozzafava. If they pulled support from her, I think you'd have a massive polling surge in favor of Hoffman, ahead of the Democratic candidate.
Probably won't happen though so yes, the division could mean a Congressional seat for Democrats, but this seems like a pretty principled fight, and I don't have a problem with it.
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TC
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Post by TC on Oct 21, 2009 9:45:06 GMT -5
I'd normally agree with this sentiment, but the party insiders' pick to run for one of the most reliably Republican/conservative districts in the country is a Republican in the mode of John McCain or Arlen Specter or Lincoln Chaffee. It's upstate NY, not rural Georgia. The last two Republican reps in NY-23 have been moderates. You can whine all you want about RINOs, but the idea that you're going to elect a Jim DeMint anywhere in the Northeast is ridiculous.
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Oct 21, 2009 11:55:47 GMT -5
That one can lump McCain into the same group as Lincoln Chafee also speaks to the condition of the Republican Party at this time, remembering that McCain agreed with President Bush more than 90% of the time on Senate votes. His voting record is the 24th most conservative in the Senate this year if my counting is correct. (http://innovation.cqpolitics.com/media/votestudy2009/). This puts him nowhere close to Olympia Snowe territory and closer to conservative idealogues.
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