kchoya
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Post by kchoya on Nov 6, 2009 11:38:07 GMT -5
I really think the Rep-Dem and Referendum on Obama angles were way over played by the media and pundits in this year's election. I think it came down to the candidates and their constituencies, not party labels or national politics. In other words, the way it should be. Except in Virginia where the main issues (from exit polls) were (1) the economy and (2) health care which, in my humble opinion, show a distinct reaction to high unemployment and the Democratic agenda of cap and trade, health care "reform", etc. To me Virginia's results showed it was, in fact, a referendum on the Obama/Pelosi/Reid agenda. Exactly. Wasn't transportation way down on the list of issues voters were concerned about. Also, I think Krauthammer makes a good point today. four years ago Deeds and McDonnell ran against each other and the race was decided by 360 votes. This year the margin was 344,000. Much as David Axelrod would like you to believe, Deeds morph from a good candidate into a bad candidate in four year, especially a 344,000 vote swing.
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Elvado
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Post by Elvado on Nov 6, 2009 12:09:39 GMT -5
Deeds suffered the same fate I expect Barry O will meet in 2012. Attractive candidate forced to confront his miserable record once charged with governing. Of course, Obama's outright refusal to engage in anything but campaigining may be his hedge against that.
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Bando
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Post by Bando on Nov 6, 2009 13:50:34 GMT -5
I really think the Rep-Dem and Referendum on Obama angles were way over played by the media and pundits in this year's election. I think it came down to the candidates and their constituencies, not party labels or national politics. In other words, the way it should be. Except in Virginia where the main issues (from exit polls) were (1) the economy and (2) health care which, in my humble opinion, show a distinct reaction to high unemployment and the Democratic agenda of cap and trade, health care "reform", etc. To me Virginia's results showed it was, in fact, a referendum on the Obama/Pelosi/Reid agenda. Except that the exit polls pretty much directly contradict this. 56% of voters in VA said Obama had nothing to do with their decision. Furthermore, everyone needs to realize that the 2009 electorate is different from the 2008 electorate. This electorate was whiter, older, and smaller than the one in 2009. This doesn't take away from the GOP's victories at all (getting your opponents' voters not to show up is as good as changing their minds), but it does lay waste to the notion that there's been some massive public opinion shift. It's likely that no one in America has changed their opinions on the issues or Obama, it's just that motivations were different this time around.
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Nov 6, 2009 14:37:58 GMT -5
All I know is Echo & The Bunnymen just cancelled their ENTIRE US TOUR!!!!
Citing "prohibitive IRS restrictions."
I blame that dweeb Tim Geithner and, by proxy, Barack Obama.
I plan on spreading the word around the Black Cat that Barack Obama hates iconic British musicians.
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EasyEd
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Post by EasyEd on Nov 6, 2009 15:42:40 GMT -5
"Except that the exit polls pretty much directly contradict this. 56% of voters in VA said Obama had nothing to do with their decision."
Does that mean that 44% of the VA voters said Obama has something to do with their decision?
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Nov 6, 2009 16:10:30 GMT -5
I think the exit poll question was something along the lines of "Are you trying to send a message to the President with your vote?"
About 10-15% said their vote was a message of support for the President (we can assume these were all Deeds voters); about 25-30% said they were sending a message of disapproval (we can assume these are all McDonnell voters); and the 50-some% number was that their vote wasn't about the President.
I'll admit my numbers could be off by some. I didn't look this up, just doing it from memory, but I think that's close to what the numbers were.
Here's the real reason I think this election is a bad sign for Democrats. In both New Jersey and Virginia, the Republican candidate won the independent vote by more than 30%. That is a scary number. There's no two ways about it.
But 2010 is a long way off. Lots of things could happen 'twixt now and then.
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TC
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Post by TC on Nov 6, 2009 16:53:12 GMT -5
All I know is Echo & The Bunnymen just cancelled their ENTIRE US TOUR!!!! Citing "prohibitive IRS restrictions." I blame that dweeb Tim Geithner and, by proxy, Barack Obama. I plan on spreading the word around the Black Cat that Barack Obama hates iconic British musicians. Can we establish a Creed tax? I think that'd be worthwhile.
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kchoya
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Post by kchoya on Nov 6, 2009 17:24:55 GMT -5
Except in Virginia where the main issues (from exit polls) were (1) the economy and (2) health care which, in my humble opinion, show a distinct reaction to high unemployment and the Democratic agenda of cap and trade, health care "reform", etc. To me Virginia's results showed it was, in fact, a referendum on the Obama/Pelosi/Reid agenda. Except that the exit polls pretty much directly contradict this. 56% of voters in VA said Obama had nothing to do with their decision. Furthermore, everyone needs to realize that the 2009 electorate is different from the 2008 electorate. This electorate was whiter, older, and smaller than the one in 2009. This doesn't take away from the GOP's victories at all (getting your opponents' voters not to show up is as good as changing their minds), but it does lay waste to the notion that there's been some massive public opinion shift. It's likely that no one in America has changed their opinions on the issues or Obama, it's just that motivations were different this time around. There's a difference between being against Obama and being against his policies. Obama is a pretty charismatic/likable guy to a lot of people. A voter may not have been against the guy himself, but the administration's policies, inaction, etc. You have to look deeper than just saying 56% of people said Obama had nothing to do with their vote. As a comparison, in the 2006 VA race senate, the numbers were reversed, but, I would argue, similar enough to be able to say this recent vote was, in part, about Obama (or, at the least, his policies). In 2006 Bush was a factor for 58% of the voters and not a factor for 42%. Breaking the 2006 vote down even more (to correspond with Boz's numbers): Support Bush - 23% Oppose Bush - 33% Bush not a factor - 42%
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Bando
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Post by Bando on Nov 6, 2009 19:30:15 GMT -5
All I know is Echo & The Bunnymen just cancelled their ENTIRE US TOUR!!!! Citing "prohibitive IRS restrictions." I blame that dweeb Tim Geithner and, by proxy, Barack Obama. I plan on spreading the word around the Black Cat that Barack Obama hates iconic British musicians. Can we establish a Creed tax? I think that'd be worthwhile. I fully support a Creed tax that makes it prohibitively expensive for them to play in the US. I believe I can achieve bipartisan support for this measure.
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Nov 10, 2009 13:31:39 GMT -5
For all of the fighting that is supposedly hurting the Republican party, at least that party is not trying to have their troublemakers deported! tinyurl.com/yjaela9 ;D ;D (PS -- pssst, Mr. President....I don't think you'd be any happier with their Lieberman).
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