hoyarooter
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Post by hoyarooter on Nov 16, 2009 13:51:50 GMT -5
Interesting perspectives on last night's game. I would just like to ask one question, and I'm not taking sides here (thebin made a very rational argument for going for it, the first one I have actually read today):
How do you think the Patriot defensive unit feels about Belichek not having enough faith in them to think they could keep the Colts out of the end zone from 70 or so yards away? Yeah, I know Manning is great, but still, isn't this a slap in the face from the head guy?
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RDF
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Post by RDF on Nov 16, 2009 14:11:06 GMT -5
I love Belichick but that was beyond RETARDED. Just ignorant and remember when Barry Switzer did it--how he was labeled? That was in a TIE game and on 4th and 1 in tough weather conditions. This was with the lead and it's the dumbest thing I've seen since Marty Mornigwhig elected to kickoff after winning toss in OT against Bears.
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hifigator
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Post by hifigator on Nov 16, 2009 15:36:35 GMT -5
RDF, I'm in the minority, but I don't think the call was as bad as you make it sound. If there had only been 30 seconds or something, then that would be different. But there was just over 2 minutes and Indy still had a timeout. So it really came down to making one play for 2 yards. If they make it, then the game is over. If they punt, then given the ease with which Indy had moved right down the field the previous two times they had the ball, and the fact that the Patriot defense was already gassed, then I don't think there was much doubt that Manning would lead them right down the field. We'll never know, but as unusaul as the call seems, I don't think it was that bad of a decision.
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thebin
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Post by thebin on Nov 16, 2009 15:56:19 GMT -5
Actually among the football-savvy friends I've been talking to this morning, almost all think the decision was either defensible or sound. There was a knee-jerk reaction last night and that noise you hear is the backlash coming....
According to espn this morning, brady has a 75% success rate in his career converting 4th and 2 or fewer yards. Anyone out there who doesn't think Peyton and the Colts had a greater than 25% chance of scoring with 2 minutes (and the 2min warning) left wasn't watching the same 4th quarter I watched last night.
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thebin
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Post by thebin on Nov 16, 2009 16:29:58 GMT -5
Does anyone actually think "sending the wrong message" to your defense is a good basis on which to call plays? I'm not sure how long you could be offended even if you wanted to when you promptly went out and rolled over for the Colts O just as it was feared they would. I really think we need to stop treating NFL players like children, even if they sometimes act like it. Everybody put their big boy pants on.....
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Post by bosoxfan3 on Nov 16, 2009 17:23:22 GMT -5
Yeah, definitely not a first down. img402.imageshack.us/img402/6053/firstdown.jpgRiiight. He knocks the ball down into his own hands almost instantly. The juggle only looks like it may significantly affect the spot from the view of the out-of-position official (which also happened to be where the main TV camera is). It was the wrong call. I disagreed with the call only because of how much trouble the Patriots had on the three plays before. A timeout trying to get the offense on the field on first down, then you need to call a timeout to make a decision on fourth? When you're calling a third down pass play, you HAVE to know what your plan is for fourth down in the event of an incompletion. That being said, as a coach, your job is to put your players in a position to win, which Belichick did. I think it might have been a first down, but those photos don't prove a thing. Photos are almost as useless as those damn statistics kids these days use (http://deadspin.com/5405774/belichick-was-right). But seriously, I think Faulk caught the ball instantly after it went up in the air- the out of place referee clearly only saw the bobble and not the subsequent catch since he was BEHIND Faulk. The game should have been won by that point by the Patriots, but still. Terrible call made by a referee who had an awful angle. Where Belichick erred is by using the timeouts but also by not running the ball on third down if he was going to go for it on fourth down.
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whatmaroon
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Post by whatmaroon on Nov 16, 2009 17:33:23 GMT -5
I think it might have been a first down, but those photos don't prove a thing. Photos are almost as useless as those damn statistics kids these days use (http://deadspin.com/5405774/belichick-was-right). But seriously, I think Faulk caught the ball instantly after it went up in the air- the out of place referee clearly only saw the bobble and not the subsequent catch since he was BEHIND Faulk. The game should have been won by that point by the Patriots, but still. Terrible call made by a referee who had an awful angle. Where Belichick erred is by using the timeouts but also by not running the ball on third down if he was going to go for it on fourth down. That's an excellent photo-Faulk clearly only has one foot down and is being driven back short of the line of gain before his second foot comes down, which is the point at which he establishes possession.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Nov 16, 2009 18:43:01 GMT -5
Establishing confidence is fine, but I doubt any Patriots defender thinks they earned it.
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hoyarooter
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Post by hoyarooter on Nov 16, 2009 21:08:54 GMT -5
Does anyone actually think "sending the wrong message" to your defense is a good basis on which to call plays? I'm not sure how long you could be offended even if you wanted to when you promptly went out and rolled over for the Colts O just as it was feared they would. I really think we need to stop treating NFL players like children, even if they sometimes act like it. Everybody put their big boy pants on..... Well, it's really an "all other things being equal" argument. If it's 50/50 that the Pats convert and 50/50 that the Colts score if you punt, then you should punt and put the game in the defense's hands. Belichick probably thought that wasn't the case in this situation, and yes, it's certainly true that the Colts had scored on their previous two possessions. I have a hunch that if the score had been 13-7, the decision might have been different.
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Nov 16, 2009 22:30:02 GMT -5
If Brady Quinn is the answer, you are asking the wrong question.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Nov 16, 2009 23:16:20 GMT -5
If Brady Quinn is the answer, you are asking the wrong question. That might be true. But, in fairness to Quinn, he's never had a chance to develop. He might be Joey Harrington 2, or he might be a good QB (not saying great, but good) that's stuck on an awful team with an awful coaching staff that has no idea how to develop a quarterback.
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Post by bosoxfan3 on Nov 16, 2009 23:37:09 GMT -5
If Brady Quinn is the answer, you are asking the wrong question. Unless the question is "which QB on the cleveland roster is better than Derek Anderson"
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Nov 17, 2009 0:05:18 GMT -5
You'll have a tough time convincing Jon Gruden that Quinn can be salvaged.
But enough about that. Horrible game with Baltimore playing just well enough to win, and Cleveland out-polluting Lake Erie.
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RDF
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Post by RDF on Nov 17, 2009 0:36:43 GMT -5
It was a stupid call by a Hall of Fame Coach--and it's absolutely hilarious how people feel the need to justify the decision by using Belichick's credentials and Brady's success rate, etc.... it was an IGNORANT DECISION that cost his team the game.
Again--when Barry Switzer did this in Philly--with the distance being less then a yard--he was BLASTED by everyone. Switzer's team won the Super Bowl that season--and many players supported him--due to the way game was played--terrible weather, tie game, giving ball to Emmitt Smith 2 times in a row to get a yard. However the "experts" all made him a baffoon--and fact is the guy was in a TIE GAME going into the wind and not positive but think his punter might have even been injured--while Belichick had a 6 pt lead--and if you punt--your force Manning/Colts to work faster to score--and it more then likely gives you more time to possibly respond with FG.
Belichick's bigger gaffe was not allowing Indy to score on Addai run--which would've given his team time to try and get a FG. No matter how you shape it--it was awful decision by a great coach and those justifying/looking to support him are kiss ass people who look at the pedigree and not the reality of the situation.
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HoyaFanNY
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Post by HoyaFanNY on Nov 17, 2009 6:43:02 GMT -5
i agree. the pats had to let Addai score. brady would have had slightly over a minute to get into fg range.
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thebin
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Post by thebin on Nov 17, 2009 8:58:55 GMT -5
It was a stupid call by a Hall of Fame Coach--and it's absolutely hilarious how people feel the need to justify the decision by using Belichick's credentials and Brady's success rate, etc.... it was an IGNORANT DECISION that cost his team the game. Again--when Barry Switzer did this in Philly--with the distance being less then a yard--he was BLASTED by everyone. Switzer's team won the Super Bowl that season--and many players supported him--due to the way game was played--terrible weather, tie game, giving ball to Emmitt Smith 2 times in a row to get a yard. However the "experts" all made him a baffoon--and fact is the guy was in a TIE GAME going into the wind and not positive but think his punter might have even been injured--while Belichick had a 6 pt lead--and if you punt--your force Manning/Colts to work faster to score--and it more then likely gives you more time to possibly respond with FG. Belichick's bigger gaffe was not allowing Indy to score on Addai run--which would've given his team time to try and get a FG. No matter how you shape it--it was awful decision by a great coach and those justifying/looking to support him are kiss ass people who look at the pedigree and not the reality of the situation. Anyone who doesn't toe the RDF line is a "kiss ass person" huh? Grow up you dbag. What astonishes me is all of those foaming at the mouth and looking to jump on BB are essentially screaming that you have to play the numbers, which is exactly what BB did according to ESPN"s (or anyone else's) statistical analysis.
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RusskyHoya
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Post by RusskyHoya on Nov 17, 2009 10:15:41 GMT -5
It was a stupid call by a Hall of Fame Coach--and it's absolutely hilarious how people feel the need to justify the decision by using Belichick's credentials and Brady's success rate, etc.... it was an IGNORANT DECISION that cost his team the game. Again--when Barry Switzer did this in Philly--with the distance being less then a yard--he was BLASTED by everyone. Switzer's team won the Super Bowl that season--and many players supported him--due to the way game was played--terrible weather, tie game, giving ball to Emmitt Smith 2 times in a row to get a yard. However the "experts" all made him a baffoon--and fact is the guy was in a TIE GAME going into the wind and not positive but think his punter might have even been injured--while Belichick had a 6 pt lead--and if you punt--your force Manning/Colts to work faster to score--and it more then likely gives you more time to possibly respond with FG. Belichick's bigger gaffe was not allowing Indy to score on Addai run--which would've given his team time to try and get a FG. No matter how you shape it--it was awful decision by a great coach and those justifying/looking to support him are kiss ass people who look at the pedigree and not the reality of the situation. I don't understand...your argument seems to boil down to: All the experts killed Barry Switzer, so Belichick was wrong here. First of all, haven't you argued repeatedly that most "experts" are know-nothing buffoons? And now you're making the "argument from authority" claim with them? The talking heads will always go with the conventional wisdom, no matter how wrong-headed it may be in a particular situation. As a Colts fan, BB ranks somewhere between Stalin and Idi Amin in my pantheon of evil. But, as has been pointed out, the pure numbers are either a wash or in favor of going for it: www.advancednflstats.com/2009/11/belichicks-4th-down-decision-vs-colts.htmlBelichick has seen enough game film to know how effective the Colts 2-minute drill is, even if they're starting at their own 34. He also knew that his defense had gotten eviscerated on the previous drive and was probably exhausted. To me, this isn't much different from going for two to win the game, where the kick ties and failing to convert loses it for you. Coaches get a lot of flack for those decisions too...unless they work, in which case it's a bold and aggressive masterstroke. The bigger issue, I think, was that Belichick hadn't made the decision to go for it on 4th down until that last time out, because he was so certain that the pass to Welker on 3rd would work. It was the same exact route that Welker ran against Marlin Jackson to ice the 2007 game. If, instead, he had decided at 3rd and 2 that he was going to go for it on 4th, then he could've simply called 2 QB sneaks with Brady. The success rate on that, I think, would've been over 90%, given the relatively undersized front of the Colts.
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thebin
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Post by thebin on Nov 17, 2009 10:24:03 GMT -5
Two consecutive QB sneaks starting on 3rd and 2?......I like it. Never thought of it, but that is genius. Especially as the first one would have been totally unexpected.
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TigerHoya
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Post by TigerHoya on Nov 17, 2009 10:29:15 GMT -5
Ray Lewis has called for a fine on Quinn for his hit on Suggs last night.
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thebin
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Post by thebin on Nov 17, 2009 10:46:52 GMT -5
Is it still legal to tackle people in football? I didn't know....
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