NCAA Tourney question

[GIGAFAN99]

Now that it's March, I hear this doesn't get moved to the "Pro and College No One Reads This Board."

My question is this: Am I crazy or is UNC getting a lot of press as a title favorite despite being even more severely flawed on defense than they were last year? I'm saying this because Digger just said they were the best team in the country (that might be a Duke - UNC press line but let's act as if he believes that).

Does anyone know UNC's actual top 50 wins? Here they are:

At (your laugh here) Davidson by 4
BYU by 10
Kent State in a 29 point rout
At Miami by 16
Two absolute pants-crappings by Clemson in OT an 2OT where the Tigers were up by three possessions with 2 minutes to go both times

So UNC has beaten nobody higher than a 7 seed and needed "Carolina mystique" to beat one of them twice.

Am I wrong here or is anyone else thinking UNC is pretty shaky to be discussed as a favorite? Does anyone think they can go six games playing no defense and not have a team close them out?

[Just Cos]

UNC plays in the very deep ACC. I mean Lunardi has 6 teams getting in from that conference, including the Twerps after a monster collapse at home against Clemson.

[Cambridge]

I did the same analysis of the other "contender" Memphis in an earlier thread. Needless to say it is uninspiring.

[prhoya]

Digger is taking the arrival of Messiah Lawson into consideration.
His mere presence should win games.

[Big Dog]

Mar 4, 2008 2:14:38 GMT -5 Cambridge said:

I did the same analysis of the other "contender" Memphis in an earlier thread. Needless to say it is uninspiring.

That's some balancing act you're pulling: how do you say on the one hand "Memphis is overrated" while also saying "Georgetown is awesome" when the former beat the latter?

Do we really have to run Memphis down? Can't we admit they're pretty good, or at least pretend we think so for our own sakes?

Wholeheartedly agree about UNC though which is why I said I was praying for Stewart Mandel's current bracket.

[SFHoya99]

Memphis is very, very good. They just are more defensive than offensive, so they look bad at times.

Their issue will be FTs in close games. We're not good; I don't think they can turn it on at all.

[theexorcist]

Mar 4, 2008 9:35:28 GMT -5 Big Dog said:

Mar 4, 2008 2:14:38 GMT -5 Cambridge said:

I did the same analysis of the other "contender" Memphis in an earlier thread. Needless to say it is uninspiring.

That's some balancing act you're pulling: how do you say on the one hand "Memphis is overrated" while also saying "Georgetown is awesome" when the former beat the latter?

Do we really have to run Memphis down? Can't we admit they're pretty good, or at least pretend we think so for our own sakes?

Wholeheartedly agree about UNC though which is why I said I was praying for Stewart Mandel's current bracket.

Memphis can be overrated and we can be underrated, even if they beat us. You can argue that we're better now, and even that we're both around #5 in the country, for example.

The consistent complaint I've heard about this entire season is that it's weak. Apparently, lots of weaker teams than usual will make the NCAAs. Additionally, all of the national championship contenders have weaknesses. Big weaknesses. So picking UNC and Memphis as a favorite is just as questionable as picking Kansas and Tennessee.

The team that wins it all will be the team that fixes those weaknesses (I know, I know, thank you, Captain Obvious) or that plays in games that play to their strengths.

[GIGAFAN99]

Mar 4, 2008 9:45:14 GMT -5 SFHoya99 said:

Memphis is very, very good. They just are more defensive than offensive, so they look bad at times.

Their issue will be FTs in close games. We're not good; I don't think they can turn it on at all.

That's the difference between UNC (and Duke honestly) and Memphis. Memphis is a very good team with flaws that might make it stop short of a title.

UNC and Duke don't have any interior defense at all which is a hole you can drive a truck through come tournament time.

[capcenterhoya]

Kansas is the other team that seems to be getting just a free pass from the media. They have absolutely no signature wins. The highest ranked rpi team Kansas has beaten was Arizona in November. In conference, their best road win is at Missouri. If they were Georgetown, people would be calling them out as frauds. I'll admit their margins of defeat are gaudy, but what have they done to prove they are a better team than Georgetown?

[hoya9797]

I think that teams from the ACC and SEC will be exposed come tournament time. I think that the best performances will come from the Big East, Pac 10, and Kansas. Right now, it looks to me like Kansas and UCLA are the most complete teams and should be the favorites to win.

[tlphoya]

I have to say I was a bit perplexed when the rankings came out yesterday and UNC was no. 1 again. I would prefer to be under the radar than ranked no. 1. Let everyone think we are overrated and then hopefully sneak up on everyone. Kind of like the San Antonio Spurs. No one pays them much attention and then all of a sudden they win it all.

Since it's officially March I am officially way too excited about college basketball. I had to re-watch the UNC game from last year last night and then was so pumped I couldn't sleep til 3 am. I sure am glad to have found a place where everyone seems at least as obsessed as I am!

[PDRHoya99]

Mar 4, 2008 9:45:14 GMT -5 SFHoya99 said:

Memphis is very, very good. They just are more defensive than offensive, so they look bad at times.

Their issue will be FTs in close games. We're not good; I don't think they can turn it on at all.

Am I the only one perplexed by your last sentence? I think we're good. Have some faith SF!

[Hoya TMF]

I don't UNC is very good given their defensive struggles and my opinion that the whole team is heartless with the exception of Hansbrough. However, Jay Bilas is chatting on ESPN.com and this issue was brought up, so here's what was said:

david (tacoma): how does a coach like Ben Howland get his team to play such good defense, when teams like North Carolina (or others) seem to be weak at it. What is Howland's secret?

Jay Bilas: (1:55 PM ET ) Carolina is not weak at it, it is just not as strong as their offensive production. When you have so many possessions, you will give up some baskets. UCLA guards so well because Howland insists upon it. It is now part of the UCLA identity. He is the best coach UCLA has had since Larry Brown. By far.

[Boz]

Mar 3, 2008 23:51:49 GMT -5 GIGAFAN99 said:

Now that it's March, I hear this doesn't get moved to the "Pro and College No One Reads This Board."

HEY now! I'll have you know that there is a very robust conversation going on on that board about hockey...between me and, well, me.

Also, if it weren't for that board (and the B&G board), there would be nowhere to banish hifi to.

Plus, I wouldn't have known to wear my black #4 armband today without the Pro & College Sports Board.
;D

I always was of the opinion that Duke would do better in the ACC, but that Carolina would be better in the NCAAs because of their size. The Carolina-Duke game changed my mind when I repeatedly saw the small Duke team score inside against Carolina virtually unchallenged by their big men. That is just inexcusable.

Having said that, I think Carolina will beat Duke in the rematch, probably get a #1 seed and be a shoe-in for the Sweet 16. After that, all bets are off. I think Duke will go farther in the NCAAs for no other reason than that they are a better coached team than Carolina. Yes, I hate him as much as anyone, but that is a fact.

[aggypryd]

Personally, I think the best team right now is UCLA. Stanford isn't too shabby either.

I have to go lay down. I hate giving credit to West Coast teams.

[PDRHoya99]

Mar 4, 2008 13:57:45 GMT -5 Hoya TMF said:

Jay Bilas: (1:55 PM ET ) Carolina is not weak at it, it is just not as strong as their offensive production. When you have so many possessions, you will give up some baskets. UCLA guards so well because Howland insists upon it. It is now part of the UCLA identity. He is the best coach UCLA has had since Larry Brown. By far.

Hey Jay. They're weak at it. Look at the Ken Pom rankings:

Adj. Defensive Efficiency : 89.8 (26th)
Effective Opponent FG% : 48.1 ( 87)
Turnover Pct. : 21.3 (158)
Opponent Off. Rebound% : 28.0 ( 14)
3-Point FG% : 33.0 ( 64)
2-Point FG% : 47.4 (122)
Free Throw Pct.: 66.8 ( 75)
Block Pct. : 10.2 ( 91)
Steal Pct. : 11.2 ( 75)

Their opponents shoot a high percentage against them, they don't turn them over a ton, and they don't have a ton of blocks or steals. They aren't even getting lucky by having good free throw defense. Only one defensive stat seems remotely positive and that is defensive rebounding. How is it that we can get consistently knocked for lack of offensive production by analysts that don't understand our slow pace, but UNC defense gets the benefit of the doubt for having too fast a pace. You can't have it both ways. Lots of possessions doesn't mean their opponents should shoot any better percentage than fewer possessions.

[SFHoya99]

Mar 4, 2008 13:49:17 GMT -5 PDRHoya99 said:

Mar 4, 2008 9:45:14 GMT -5 SFHoya99 said:

Memphis is very, very good. They just are more defensive than offensive, so they look bad at times.

Their issue will be FTs in close games. We're not good; I don't think they can turn it on at all.

Am I the only one perplexed by your last sentence? I think we're good. Have some faith SF!

What I meant to say, which no one could possibly decipher from my post, is that we're not a good free throw shooting team, but I think we have the ability to focus more and improve in big games. I think we get sloppy at times.

Memphis, OTOH, has players who are just bad. Roy's had his struggles -- but when he takes his time he's 70%. Dorsey just sucks at FT Shooting.

[GIGAFAN99]

Mar 4, 2008 14:22:22 GMT -5 SFHoya99 said:

Mar 4, 2008 13:49:17 GMT -5 PDRHoya99 said:

Am I the only one perplexed by your last sentence? I think we're good. Have some faith SF!

What I meant to say, which no one could possibly decipher from my post, is that we're not a good free throw shooting team, but I think we have the ability to focus more and improve in big games. I think we get sloppy at times.

Memphis, OTOH, has players who are just bad. Roy's had his struggles -- but when he takes his time he's 70%. Dorsey just sucks at FT Shooting.

Hidden in these FT woes is my criticism of Memphis. The reason we concentrate and shoot 70.9% in-conference and Memphis is still stuck at 59.1% is partly they're bad at shooting. The other part, I think, is they're not forced to get any better because they can cruise to 33-1 and a #1 seed just by existing in C-USA.

Not playing anyone starts to show itself. You get imperceptibly sloppy against worse competition and when you see a good team in the tourney, it's a rude awakening and you might not be able to adjust in time.

[KHoyaNYC]

I agree about UNC. Not sure their offensive prowess can carry them through every round of the NCAAs.

[cardhack]

While I think the "Defense wins championships" is an overused phrase in college basketball (I think firepower is a critical element as well in the modern 35 second shotclock/short three pointer era)...Man, I've been waiting for this thread for a month. Carolina flatout allows too many open looks, and it's being masked by their offensive numbers. Watching them at times is like watching a December NBA basketball game between the Suns and the Mavs...there are no stops, shots aren't consistently challenged and when I watch ACC games that seems the norm. ACC games are also officiated to encourage that type of tempo, as light contact up top is quick whistled, cutters go through the lane unchecked and aside from Hansborough's handgrenade explosions in the post moderate contact is called.

I've been praying Louisville gets them in the tourney, because I honestly don't think the Heels can play a possession game where they're forced to guard through the shotclock and have to explore the infinity (by their standard) of a 35 second shotclock.