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Post by AustinHoya03 on Mar 4, 2008 15:26:23 GMT -5
Kansas is the other team that seems to be getting just a free pass from the media. They have absolutely no signature wins. The highest ranked rpi team Kansas has beaten was Arizona in November. In conference, their best road win is at Missouri. If they were Georgetown, people would be calling them out as frauds. I'll admit their margins of defeat are gaudy, but what have they done to prove they are a better team than Georgetown? KU's conference losses, to a legit title contender (Texas), an okay team (K-State), and a below average team (Oklahoma State) look a lot like the Hoyas' conference losses to Louisville, Pitt, and Syracuse, respectively. A major difference between GU and KU seems to be that we play (and win) more close games than Kansas, which gags in the waning seconds when the score is tight (see: losses to Texas and "I'm 40" St.). I would guess that if SF did a "luck analysis" for Kansas in the Self Era similar to the one he did for Georgetown in the JTIII Era, we would see much different numbers. The Jayhawks look great when they can force their style of basketball on teams with lesser athletes, and they've done so often in the Big 12 this season. But you're absolutely right -- the Jayhawks haven't impressed in their big games, and I would also submit they're a mediocre team in the clutch. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see an athletic team who plays good D like Marquette grind one out over KU in the tournament. And I think Memphis would beat the Jayhawks soundly.
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Post by Coast2CoastHoya on Mar 4, 2008 15:54:01 GMT -5
Even the guy I work with who's a double Tar Heel, grew up in Chapel Hill, and is one of the most knowledgeable fans I know (and pulled the classy, classy move of dropping a GU-Beats-UNC sports section on my desk with a "Nice Win" note last year) was perplexed about UNC being #1.
I, for one, am glad that there aren't pre-coronated Nat'l Champs this year and that 10-12 teams could conceivably compete for the title. It's going to be an exciting March.
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idhoya
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Post by idhoya on Mar 4, 2008 19:24:50 GMT -5
My contention with Kansas is there tendency to go cold from the perimeter. Carolina's lack of defense will come back to haunt them, but not until the Elite 8 or Final Four. Maybe its just me, but I'm not as high on Texas as everyone else. They are small and streaky, but DJ is a beast.
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Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Mar 5, 2008 0:50:42 GMT -5
I would bet it all on Kansas winning the national title right now, if not for the Bill Self factor. Has anyone in recent years squandered more tournament talent without getting to the Final Four?
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HoNYaSaxa
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Post by HoNYaSaxa on Mar 5, 2008 10:12:17 GMT -5
I would bet it all on Kansas winning the national title right now, if not for the Bill Self factor. I agree. Kansas is a complete team that has consistent execution on defense and moves the ball BEAUTIFULLY on offense. I would write them into the Final Four with UCLA.
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RDF
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Post by RDF on Mar 5, 2008 12:18:22 GMT -5
Kansas is deepest team, and most talented 1-13-but I disagree about their defense being tough. It can be--but they play tougher defense at home--and when they get away from Allen Fieldhouse they tend to coast a bit. I thought their team last year was best top to bottom (remember they beat Florida in a classic game early in year) but then they ran into UCLA and we know UCLA plays "Big East" style of defense for 40 minutes--and out went the Jayhawks.
Will say--I like KU's team a lot more then UNC who again is overhyped. This UNC "era" reminds me of those overrated JR Reid led teams who accomplished nothing of importance and would get beaten up by tougher and better teams--but it was an "upset" for team who was better due to the hype of UNC/ACC.
My picks for Final Four are UCLA and Kansas--and then other 2 are wide open. Think the bracket will decide half of the Final Four--but UCLA and Kansas can play/beat anyone and if they don't make it to San Antonio--I would be very surprised.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Mar 5, 2008 12:25:19 GMT -5
Whenever I come around to the best team I come back to UCLA. Just a really good mix, quality coach, lots of experience on the big stage. They've got dribble drive guards, some outside shooting (though not a lot), play good defense though no real shotblocking, great rebounding and a great post presence.
Kansas has sick talent but I view their big men as playing off their guards -- not creators on their own. And while I'm sure Bill Self can win a title, I don't think it's a coincidence his teams have tended to underacheive in the tourney.
Other than that, I'm with RDF, I think it is wide open. UCLA is the only team I'd bank on the Final Four. I could definitely see UCLA, Texas, Louisville and an outsider like Xavier -- leaving the ACC and SEC completely out of it.
That said, I think Memphis is #3 on that list. Douglas Roberts is one of those players and their frontline is sick -- not just Dorsey. They actually have more shooters and their real achilles heel will be the close game.
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RDF
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Post by RDF on Mar 5, 2008 12:33:31 GMT -5
Memphis will be hurt by not playing big games AWAY from Memphis. It's one thing to be down 8-10 pts against CUSA competition or when you are at home--another to be in that situation against a big time opponent on neutral court-where fans will be pulling for underdog.
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idhoya
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Post by idhoya on Mar 5, 2008 19:42:24 GMT -5
UCLA has a tendency to not shoot well from time to time and their lack of size kinda worries me. Aboya, Mata and "The Prince" are tough, so I guess it won't be too much of an issue. They go as Collison goes.
Memphis will run into a UT game again. Kansas is streaky from out top. They can dribble drive though. They choke alot too.
Texas ain't ready. I like GU cause they're hard to prep for. Round about Elite 8 it gets tougher, but that's when D comes through. If they get a favorable draw, even better.
Stanford is a sleeper cause no one is picking them to go to Final Four. They have size and steady guard play. Twins can play soft at times and get in foul trouble.
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