OldHoyafan
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,387
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Post by OldHoyafan on Feb 27, 2008 20:02:36 GMT -5
I know the Hoyas have not looked great in the marque games on the ESPN, but how can you say on one hand that the BE is the strongest conference 1-12, and then say the 2 teams leading the conference Georgetown and Louisville are projected 3 seeds for the tournament. It makes no sense with the Hoyas with a RPI of 8. By the way the guy who predicted that was the "freethrow play" announcer in the Alabama game.
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idhoya
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by idhoya on Feb 27, 2008 20:12:29 GMT -5
please. Hoyas and UL get 2's; Uconn gets a 3. ND a 4.
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GUJook97
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,445
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Post by GUJook97 on Feb 27, 2008 20:41:36 GMT -5
Well, I assume you are talking about about bracketology? In my opinion, that isnt so much a projection as an prediction of what would happen if the tourney started today. For instance, wouldnt you have to "project" that Lville, Gtown, ND or Uconn would win the BE regular season and/or BET? If that is the case, I agree with idhoya, someone would have to get a 2. ND certainly wouldnt be a 4 if they won the BE and BET.
The only time Lunardi actually "projects" the field is 5 minutes before the committee announces it. At which point, he declares how great he is for doing what every one in America could probably do.
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royski
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 2,293
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Post by royski on Feb 27, 2008 20:49:25 GMT -5
And still misses a bunch of games. We're talking about maybe 3 spots up for grabs, and he pretty consistently bricks 2 of them.
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Post by strummer8526 on Feb 27, 2008 23:10:48 GMT -5
And still misses a bunch of games. We're talking about maybe 3 spots up for grabs, and he pretty consistently bricks 2 of them. I think our seed should be a lower number than dunks we miss in a game.
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mapei
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
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Post by mapei on Feb 27, 2008 23:50:49 GMT -5
I think a 3 seed sounds about right. We're not one of the 8 best teams in the country right now. Could a strong finish and BE tourney change that? Absolutely.
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idhoya
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,177
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Post by idhoya on Feb 28, 2008 0:00:12 GMT -5
style points. GU is one of the best eight teams, but cause they're not winning in stylish, blowout fashion, then they'll be detractors. Louisville beat this same SJU team by 10 earlier this season, but it won't be mentioned. Why? cause they're playing better now, lead the conference, blah, blah, blah. GU has won 10 of 12, is 23-4 (13-3) in the toughest conference in america, and defends better than anyone (save for tonight's performance). style points.
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Post by Coast2CoastHoya on Feb 28, 2008 11:47:00 GMT -5
Here are scenarios I see happening: If we don't win the reg season: And make the BET finals but lose, we're a 3 or 4; And don't make the BET finals, we're a 4 or 5 If we win the reg season: And make the BET finals but lose, we're a 3 And don't make the BET finals, we're a 4 If we win the BET (either as reg season champs or not) we're a 2.
Obviously a lot is contingent upon which team (if not us) wins the reg seas or BET. But that's how I see it going.
Now, we can always make it easy on ourselves and everyone else by winning out, taking the BET, and heading into March Madness 28-4!
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guru
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Posts: 6,600
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Post by guru on Feb 28, 2008 11:57:08 GMT -5
I don't see us dropping to a 5 as a realistic possibility, unless we completely crap the bed down the stretch.
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Post by JohnJacquesLayup on Feb 28, 2008 12:07:25 GMT -5
A 3 is pretty realistic the way we've played this entire season, as in not winning tough road games (outside of maybe WVU). I'd be alright with a 3 considering we lost a top five pick in the draft, and a potential star freshman guard was out for the majority of the season.
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Post by Coast2CoastHoya on Feb 28, 2008 12:11:37 GMT -5
I don't see us dropping to a 5 as a realistic possibility, unless we completely crap the bed down the stretch. Exactly my point. I don't see us doing that, but if we lose to Marquette and L'ville and lose either our first or second BET game, it's possible.
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GUJook97
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by GUJook97 on Feb 28, 2008 12:14:02 GMT -5
I just dont see any of the top 4 getting punished too much for not making the BET finals. The competition is just too good. I think any of the top 4 are going to hold at #3-4, with a chance at a 2. The 2nd day of play in the big east is going to have teams like Pitt, WVU, Syracuse, Marquette, Nova. For instance, I dont think ND is that great of a team, but it is realistic that they are going to finish 14-4 in the BE. If they lost to to Pitt in the 2nd day of the BET, I still dont think there should be 16 teams in the country seeded higher than them.
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Feb 28, 2008 12:14:38 GMT -5
Here are scenarios I see happening: If we don't win the reg season: And make the BET finals but lose, we're a 3 or a 4; And don't make the BET finals, we're a 4 If we win the reg season: And make the BET finals but lose, we're a 2 And don't make the BET finals, we're a 3 If we win the BET (either as reg season champs or not) we're a 2 or a 1 if other teams lose a few games.
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Post by Coast2CoastHoya on Feb 28, 2008 12:29:22 GMT -5
Good point HSB - it's conceivable that we could ascend to a 1 seed if other teams drop a couple.
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KennaHoya
Century (over 100 posts)
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Post by KennaHoya on Feb 28, 2008 12:57:22 GMT -5
I suppose it is always fun to speculate, but this year these last two games really could mean a whole bunch: winning the conference regular season title, or not even getting a bye in the Big East tournament.
If we both lose on the road to Marquette and at home to Louisville, two events that are not inconceivable, even for a top-20 team, we could finish 5th in the conference unless Marquette loses its last game at Syracuse (also a real possibility).
On the other hand, even with a loss to Marquette, we could finish at the top if we beat Louisville.
Based upon the play this year, it really does appear that there is not that much that separates the top 5 Big East teams, and perhaps even the next two or three (West Virginia, Pittsburgh, and then take your pick).
All of this projects for an incredibly competitive Big East week-end in NYC, and real confusion for the seeding of Big East teams in the NCAA.
All I can say is thankfully this program is back to the point where the question is whether Georgetown is 1-5, and not whether we will (or even did) make the BET and NCAA tournaments. And up or down in the particular moment, there always do appear to be fun days ahead. (Looking at the faces on St. John's folks last night, I could not help but think that it was not so long ago these two programs were lumped together looking forward).
Remember that as we go through the huge swings of emotion over the next two weeks plus.
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RDF
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by RDF on Feb 28, 2008 13:18:05 GMT -5
Seeding doesn't matter--it's about how you are playing and who matches up against you in region. You could be a #1 seed--but matched up with teams who will give you fits--see UNC last year--they struggled with MSU, got bailed out by officials who fouled out Taj Gibson and USC, and then got spanked by a tough minded team in Hoyas. (oh wait, they just missed shots--Hoyas didn't win that game-sorry, forgot. ) Just want to see Hoyas playing their best ball going into BET/NCAA's and give themselves best shot to compete for titles.
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KennaHoya
Century (over 100 posts)
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Post by KennaHoya on Feb 28, 2008 13:27:47 GMT -5
While I agree with you for the most part, sometimes seeding helps you get on a roll. If you are not playing your best, playing a lesser team or avoiding a hot team can give you time to gel, gain some confidence, and pick it up.
I guess my real point also was less important to this thread: one game or two will make or break this regular season. I suspect if we finish first, not many will doubt that the regular season was a success. If we finish fifth, most everyone will look at the regular season as a disappointment.
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Post by hoyaparanoia33 on Feb 28, 2008 14:04:33 GMT -5
I think a 3 seed sounds about right. We're not one of the 8 best teams in the country right now. Could a strong finish and BE tourney change that? Absolutely. If I remember correctly, they had Xavier as a 2 seed. Regardless of whether we are one of the best 8 teams in the country now or not, there is no way in my mind that Xavier deserves a higher seed than Georgetown.
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nodak89
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
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Post by nodak89 on Feb 28, 2008 14:16:22 GMT -5
I saw some stats on ESPN last night that 3 seeds were at about a 45% record in round 3 of the tourney since 1995.
I think 2 seeds were 60% and 1 seeds were about 70%.
Anyone have the data? I'm not sure about the exact numbers, but I know that 3 seeds won their round 3 game less than 50% of the time.
I suppose it just makes sense, but it seemed to be a rather precipitous drop from 2 to 3.
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hoyasexy
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Post by hoyasexy on Feb 28, 2008 14:32:30 GMT -5
Considering that the default scenario has the #2 playing against the #3 in the third round (and the 2 seed would natually be favored in that game), you should not be surprised that 2 seeds tend to do much better than 3 seeds in that game.
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