TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Aug 19, 2007 15:54:06 GMT -5
After Johan threw down the gauntlet today with his 8IP, 17 K, 2 H, 0ER performance, it seems like he's thrust his name back into the Cy Young debate. Yes, he's 13-9, but when you get a loss or no decision in 8 quality starts due to a mind numbingly bad offense, well, that's what happens (same thing can be said for Bedard, though he has more no decisions than losses.)
He's currently at 13-9, 2.88 ERA, 191K, 39 BB, 1.00 WHIP
Other pitchers worth considering:
Danny Haren: 13-4, 2.54 ERA, 138 K, 46BB, 1.13 WHIP
Erik Bedard: 12-4, 2.98 ERA, 207K, 52 BB, 1.08 WHIP
Josh Beckett: 15-5, 3.15 ERA, 148K, 30 BB, 1.10 WHIP
C.C. Sabathia: 14-6, 3.43 ERA, 168K, 27BB, 1.17 WHIP
Kelvim Escobar: 13-6, 2.68 ERA, 124K, 50BB, 1.18 WHIP
John Lackey: 15-7, 3.32ERA, 129K, 43BB, 1.28 WHIP
As of right now, my top three would look like this:
1. Johan Santana 2. Erik Bedard 3. Danny Haren
My vote for Johan is probably something of a homer vote, so I can't say I'd really be unhappy with Bedard winning it as of right now. Haren's ERA is ridiculous, but I don't think it's so ridiculous that it overcomes his relative lack of strikeouts and the fact that he plays in a pitchers park.
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hoyaLS05
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Post by hoyaLS05 on Aug 19, 2007 18:55:46 GMT -5
TBird:
I think Bedard might be slightly ahead right now, if I had to guess how voting would end up if it took place today, just because there has been so much talk lately about how he has really blossomed of late. His unreal July (5-0, 2.21, 52 k's in 40 IP) I think really catapulted Bedard to the top of the list.
That said, I think Johan's outing today reminded people that, oh yeah, Johan is still Johan and if he trims his era from say 2.88 to 2.70 or 2.75, regardless of whether he can pick up a few more W's, and Bedard's numbers don't improve markedly, well then we could see Johan take home his third Cy.
Now, if only the Twins could keep him long enough to see numbers 4, 5, and 6...
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nychoya3
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Post by nychoya3 on Aug 19, 2007 20:26:22 GMT -5
Come on. Joba the Hutt is clearly the front runner at this point.
I'm taking Bedard, with Johan just a step behind.
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ichirohoya
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Post by ichirohoya on Aug 19, 2007 21:32:55 GMT -5
If Bedard is able to pick up a few Wins over the last 5+ weeks of the season and finish at something like 16-5 with his current ERA and WHIP and a league strikeout crown-- i would sure love to see him win the Cy Young. Even more than him winning some hardware though- i would love to see his signature on a long term deal with the orioles.
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Aug 19, 2007 22:09:13 GMT -5
bedard will win the Cy Young and then he'll get snatched up by the yankees or someone simillar at the first oppertunity. Tis the life of an orioles fan. *shakes head*
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Aug 20, 2007 7:58:28 GMT -5
If Bedard is able to pick up a few Wins over the last 5+ weeks of the season and finish at something like 16-5 with his current ERA and WHIP and a league strikeout crown-- i would sure love to see him win the Cy Young. Even more than him winning some hardware though- i would love to see his signature on a long term deal with the orioles. What about 16-7, 2.88 ERA, 238K, 0.97 WHIP in 231.2 IP? Think that'll win it for Bedard? www.baseball-reference.com/pi/psplit.cgi?n1=santajo02&year=2005(Sorry, I'm still bitter) bedard will win the Cy Young and then he'll get snatched up by the yankees or someone simillar at the first oppertunity. Tis the life of an orioles fan. *shakes head* Yeah, I feel reaaaaaaal sorry for the Orioles and their $94 million payroll
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hoyarooter
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Post by hoyarooter on Aug 20, 2007 14:28:18 GMT -5
Well, TBird, at least you admitted you're prejudiced.
That said, the race is wide open at this point, but Santana is certainly in the mix, as always. That performance yesterday was sick.
I don't think Haren's lack of K's will be (or should be) held against him. Yes he pitches is a pitcher's park, but I would be curious to see the breakdown between home and road for him. I'll bet his ERA at home isn't as ridiculous as Chris Young's ERA in San Diego.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Aug 20, 2007 14:39:05 GMT -5
Well, TBird, at least you admitted you're prejudiced. That said, the race is wide open at this point, but Santana is certainly in the mix, as always. That performance yesterday was sick. I don't think Haren's lack of K's will be (or should be) held against him. Yes he pitches is a pitcher's park, but I would be curious to see the breakdown between home and road for him. I'll bet his ERA at home isn't as ridiculous as Chris Young's ERA in San Diego. Hmmmm...you're right about Haren's splits. I would have thought they'd be more pronounced. Haren has a 2.56 ERA at home in 95 IP and a 2.53 ERA in 78.1 IP on the road. Not sure how much to factor this in, but Haren's ERA has benefited from 11 unearned runs, higher than any other pitcher I listed. Johan's second at 8 unearned runs. Also, I see strikeouts as a measure of pitching dominance. It's one of the three "true" outcomes that a pitcher can control (BBs and HRs being the other two) and so they should definitely be a factor in the Cy Young decision. Personally, I think the fact Johan and Bedard are striking out 2.5 and 4 batters more per 9 innings than Haren outweighs the .35 and .45 runs per nine he's preventing.
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hoyaLS05
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Post by hoyaLS05 on Aug 20, 2007 14:46:58 GMT -5
I would not factor in unearned runs at all.
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kchoya
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Post by kchoya on Aug 20, 2007 15:36:37 GMT -5
bedard will win the Cy Young and then he'll get snatched up by the yankees or someone simillar at the first oppertunity. Tis the life of an orioles fan. *shakes head* Yeah, we Kansas City fans are feeling real sorry for you...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2007 16:15:39 GMT -5
I thought they already gave it to Matsuzaka back in March?
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Eurostar
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Post by Eurostar on Aug 20, 2007 22:57:46 GMT -5
I think the frontrunners are Bedard, Beckett, Santana in that order. They seem to take into account W-L more than I think they should, so if Beckett gets to 20+ wins and the Red Sox win the AL East I think Beckett gets it assuming Bedard doesn't go on a Brandon Webb type streak to end the year.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Aug 21, 2007 7:59:24 GMT -5
I think the frontrunners are Bedard, Beckett, Santana in that order. They seem to take into account W-L more than I think they should, so if Beckett gets to 20+ wins and the Red Sox win the AL East I think Beckett gets it assuming Bedard doesn't go on a Brandon Webb type streak to end the year. 2005 demonstrated that the voters DEFINITELY take W-L into account more than they should. Looking back on the history, no starting pitcher has won the Cy Young w/o winning at least 18 games and the three that won it in the NL were special cases--Rick Sutcliffe in '84 (16-1 in the NL, 4-5 in the AL), Fernando Valenzuela in 1981 and Brandon Webb in 2006 (no NL pitcher won more than 16). Also, the part about the Red Sox winning the AL East should have no effect on whether Beckett wins the award--it probably will, but it shouldn't--the Cy Young is for the best overall pitcher, not the most valuable.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Aug 21, 2007 8:09:43 GMT -5
I thought they already gave it to Matsuzaka back in March? You realize that Matsuzaka has pitched really well this year, right? He might not be a Cy Young candidate, but he's massively outperforming all the other free agents in the 2007 class: 13-9, 3.79 ERA, 164IP, 164K, 1.28 WHIP The real problem for whoever is voted the trophy will be getting past that harpy Suzyn Waldman and prying it from Roger Clemen's bloated fingers. Hell, Tim Wakefield's been a better pitcher this year than Clemens has.
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Aug 21, 2007 10:22:59 GMT -5
all the money in the world doesn't help if you've got an idiot spending it. I'm complaing about our horrible owner.
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hoyarooter
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Post by hoyarooter on Aug 21, 2007 12:35:17 GMT -5
One other name that hasn't been tossed out yet - Fausto Carmona, Mr. Where the Hell Did That Guy Come From?
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Aug 21, 2007 13:02:14 GMT -5
One other name that hasn't been tossed out yet - Fausto Carmona, Mr. Where the Hell Did That Guy Come From? Seriously--he went from a fabulously awful closer (you may remember him blowing saves against the Red Sox last year) to 14-7, 3.16 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 99K. I thought he might be getting lucky, but his BA on balls in play isn't absurdly low (see Young, Chris) and nothing else really sticks out either. He's good, but I don't think he has the name/strikeouts to win the award this year.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Aug 21, 2007 14:21:22 GMT -5
Fausto increased his GB:FB ratio and subsequently has a TON of double plays behind him this year. He's also cut down on his home runs and walks.
Not all that unexpected when you figure he was only 22 last year. He's a lot like Wang.
As for Chris Young, I think there's both a strong logical argument and statistical evidence that he's a likely exception to the DIPS theory.
Theoretically, he pitches from an odd angle with a deceptive delivery which yields, anecdotally but everyone notices it, and amazing amount of pop-ups. He pitches high in the zone, which no one else does these days and gets folks to chase. The result is a swing and miss or a pop-up.
Statistically, here's his last four years. The last two years have been in a hit-suppressing park with a very good defense behind him; not so much the first two. After adjusting for that, he's been well below the expected BABIP all four years. Eventually, you have to start to look for why he's an exception instead of expecting him to permanently regress. Oh, he may have a bad year or two, but I expect his lifetime BABIP to break the rules a bit. McCracken's work focused on a short time period and most major league pitchers are pretty much the same these days. Of course it isn't out of the realm of possibility that he's been lucky for four years, but I also think that Voros' model has a lot of assumptions in it.
Last four years, BABIP:
0.259 0.292 0.228 0.234
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 21, 2007 14:45:49 GMT -5
You realize that Matsuzaka has pitched really well this year, right? He might not be a Cy Young candidate, but he's massively outperforming all the other free agents in the 2007 class: 13-9, 3.79 ERA, 164IP, 164K, 1.28 WHIP The real problem for whoever is voted the trophy will be getting past that harpy Suzyn Waldman and prying it from Roger Clemen's bloated fingers. Hell, Tim Wakefield's been a better pitcher this year than Clemens has. I don't care how he's pitched. The fact is after seeing one or two "gyroballs" in spring training, everyone had him penciled in as the AL Cy Young winner. That's where my beef lies. I'm not commenting on his performance, but on the ridiculousness of the media saying ANYTHING before games are played. And that goes for every sport. Basically, I think Steve Phillips should die a quick, painful death. Today. (See, this is what ESPN does to someone after only a couple hours of SportsCenter).
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Aug 21, 2007 16:27:51 GMT -5
After hating Steve Phillips for a year, I now have passed that into finding him funny. This is a guy who couldn't win with the Mets, and I'm supposed to listen to him criticize other GM's moves? Really?
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