NCAA- what'll it take?

[crzyhoya]

I was talking with some fellow hoyas today, and I realized- we have a shot at the tourney this year. Slim, yes, but we do have a shot. After the new RPI ratings come in I'll re-think this, but right now I think here's the formula for a tourney bid:

1)Win one of our 3 huge games: BC away, 'Cuse away, or UConn away. If we win any one of those three, we'll be in the green.

2) Have our overall Big East record at something like +.650. We need to whip the crap out of St. John's and Seton Hall and get some big wins against ND, too.

We can do this. I'm reading a lot of articles that are saying that we are playing sloppy- but we're still winning. We clean up the frontcourt and we'll have a shot.

whatchathink?

[ShimmyJr]

we need 10-6 in the Big East, with a win over UCONN, 'Cuse, or BC - might even need 11-5 to be honest because the Oral Roberts and Temple games hurt us

[Caddyshack4]

very true, if we had beat oral roberts and Temple, we'd be sitting in a VERY nice spot. However, I think we'll have to win two of the three you talked about crzyhoya, not just one.

[GUHoya07]

not if 6 BE teams get bids

[Hoya50]

20 wins. if the hoyas get 20 wins, the committee will have a gard time keeping the hoyas out.

[Simian Prime]

Besides the BC victory over UCONN, whom the hell have they really beaten? Hell, Yale and Holy Cross took them to OT, and Kent State lost by 2 pts.

BC is over rated.

We should be able to take BC & ND.

[StPetersburgHoya (Inactive)]

Ok - here's why we're in a better spot than most of the people on this thread are portraying us in right now.

Our "bad" losses are to Temple and Oral Roberts - both of whom are the presumptive favorites to win their conferences. Temple has played such a hard schedule so far that I don't think that UMASS or GW will be too much trouble for them in the A-10. Oral Roberts will win the Mid-Continent Conference and their conference tournament is in Tulsa - less than a mile and a half from their campus (to give you some perspective on where the Big East is in relation to the mid-con - the mid-con tournament will be in a high school arena).

We have quality wins over Clemson, Davidson, Pitt, and Villanova.

Our remaining schedule is: at Syracuse, Notre Dame, St. John's, at BC, Seton Hall, at Rutgers, West Virginia, at Notre Dame, at St. Johns, Villanova, at UCONN, and Providence.

We need to win one of the following games: at Syracuse, at UCONN, and at BC - all of these games are winnable - in all of these games except for Syracuse we will go in under the radar because we get no attention from the media. BC looks especially good because they were taken to two overtimes by Yale, went to overtime against Holy Cross, and were taken to the end by Kent State - also they had a tougher time with Clemson at home than we did in Hawaii. Also UCONN did not look incredibly impressive at MCI and we always show up for games against Syracuse.

The following games are must wins: all remaining home games - none of these opponents are ranked and only Providence has an RPI that is currently higher than ours (Providence's RPI is 47 ours is 48 www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_bige_Men.html).

At St. John's, at Rutgers, and at Notre Dame - all of these opponents have lower RPI than we do and they are all extremely winnable games.

A few other notes - even if January gets bad - don't give up on the team yet (not that i think it will get bad either). Beginning with the February 2nd game against Seton Hall at home our schedule gets much easier.

[Simian Prime]

Great breakdown St. Pete.

I pretty much see it the same way. What I believe (and hope) will come to pass, is that we will get much stronger as the season goes on.

The more time we get with the play motion offense, the more fluid it will become for our boys. With higher scoring percentages on the inside, our shooters should be freed up a bit more. Of course they need to hit when they are open (as well as when they are not).

I really have tried not to be overly biased about this, but having watched every home game, you can see obvious steps in the growth of the players along the way.

We shall see....

Go Hoyas...

[SFHoya99]

I think the key is to prove you can compete with Top 50 RPI clubs. We take care of that, our RPI and record can take care of itself.

Our record versus Top 50: 2-4 (Although Nova may slip out soon).
Potentially bad losses: #124 Oral Roberts

(Temple is nowhere near a bad loss).

Future Top 50 RPI games:
Syracuse
BC
(Possibly) Villanova
Connecticut
(Possibly) Providence
BE Tournament

We need to win at least two, probably three of these. We have to win one of the Cuse, BC and UConn games -- unfortunately all away.

[TBird41]

I think no matter what we have to make get to the 3rd round of the BE tourney, either through 1 win and a bye or two wins. Plus at least 10-6 in BE play. 9-7 would require that we go to the championship round of hte BE tourney, otherwise we're hosting an NIT game.

[GUHoya07]

I doubt we would host an NIT game even then. They would probably send us on the road because of MCI. Isn't that what happened 2 years ago?

[TBird41]

2 years ago there was a scheduling conflict b/c MCI was hosting NCAA tournament games-hence why it couldn't host NIT games. I'm pretty sure that if the Hoyas go to the NIT, they'll be hosting games at MCI, especially considering the only possible conflict would be with Wizards games.

[lichoya68]

THEY NEVER GIVE US AN NIT GAME AT HOME CAUSE WE CANT GET MCI SOOOO AND MCDONOUGH IS TOO SMALL SOOOOOOO IF NIT WERE AWAY ALOT SOOOOOO NEED TO MAKE NCAAS AND TO DO THAT ITS SIMPLE WE NEED TO WIN PERIOD WE NEED TO WIN AND SO FAR WE HAVE AND I THINK WE WILL GO HOYAS WIN AT CUSE THE JOURNEY BEGINS EVERY NITE GO HOYAS GO JEFF

[StPetersburgHoya (Inactive)]

The problem with the NIT games two years ago was that the Capitals were in the playoffs and the Wizards had a lot of home games down the stretch because it was Jordan's last season. This year the Wizards have a normal schedule and there are no Caps games - so we might be able to get a home game in the NIT. But the point here is that we should be able to make the NCAAs - we need to look at the glass as half full on this bubble thing.

[Simian Prime]

I would rather focus on going to the Big Dance instead of the Senior Prom.

[jerseyhoya34]

I think it is nice to think about where we are at this point in the season, but I think it also brings us away from what got us to this point. We have been successful in a large part because we take every game as it comes and prepare well. I expect that we'll continue to do this be it for games against Syracuse or Rutgers.

[MCIGuy]

TBird41 said:

2 years ago there was a scheduling conflict b/c MCI was hosting NCAA tournament games-hence why it couldn't host NIT games. I'm pretty sure that if the Hoyas go to the NIT, they'll be hosting games at MCI, especially considering the only possible conflict would be with Wizards games.

Hoyas rarely ever host a post season NIT game whe they play in that tournament..

I don't think enough of you are giving BC credit. The Eagles not only beat UConn on the road, they also beat UCLA on the road too.

[Bay99]

Georgetown will never "host" an NIT game. It just will not happen.

[TBird41]

Bay99 said:

Georgetown will never "host" an NIT game. It just will not happen.

Why not? Is there something in the NIT rulebook? Is it that we can't get MCI? Honestly, what's the reason?

[GUHoya07]

NCAA's!!!! I gotta have faith faith faith!!!!!!!!

You gotta love Jeff Jeff Jeff!!!!!!!