NBA Game 6 and 7 predictions

[hifigator]

What does everyone think about he finals now that we are heading back to Dallas with the Heat up 3-2?


I think the Series and therefore the title are about as close as can be to a real "toss-up." With the way the home teams have played, I think you would have to give the home team the edge, and especially Dallas. Dallas won game 2 relatively easily and Miami won game 4 very easily. The other three games were competitive, but with Dallas playing the better ball in my opinion. Yet somehow the heat found a way to win the two at their house. The same was true of Dallas in game one, even though the Heat started out on fire.

Trying to be as open minded and honest as I can, I think dallas is about a two to one favorite to win each game at home, but remember they need to win both at home, while Miami only needs to steal one game out of two. If my math is correct, then that would make either team a pickem to win the series at this point.

Looking at it a little deeper, I would give the Heat a 35%-40% chance to win game 6 and about a 25% to win game 7. Just for arguement sake and presuming my odds are correct, then it would look like this:

If Miami is 40% for game 6 and 25% for game seven, then Dallas' "chances" of winning both is (.6) x (.75) which is 45%.
That would mean that Miami is the other 55% to win.

But if Miami has only a 35% chance in Game 6 and the same 25% chance in game 7, then Dallas is (.65) x (.75) which is 49%, meaning that Miami is the remaining 51%.


Incidentally, for any math questioners, you can double check those numbers this way:

The Heat are 40% game six and 25% game 7.
So there odds to win either one would be:

(.4) + (.6)x(.25) which still equals their 55% chance, given those chances.

or

if the Heat are 35% in game six and 25% in game 7, it looks like this:

(.35) + (.65)x(.25) which is 52%. The slight difference is due to rounding.


And just for kicks, if I am giving Miami too much of a chance then let's say they are a 2 to 1 underdog in Game 6 and a 4 to 1 underdog in Game 7.

That would but them at (.3333) + (.66666)x(.2), which would still give them about a 47% chance to win the series from this point.

It really does look a tossup at this point to me. In any case, what do you all think of my predictions?

[Nevada Hoya]

I think Miami has to win the next game (game 6) to win this series. I think it will be very hard for the Heat to win game 7 on the road. They just have got to get it down the next game and complete the sweep.

[SoCalHoya]

I agree with Nevada.

hifi, no offense intended, but are you here so much because the Gator boards are ho-hum or because the HoyaTalk board is so rife with brilliant posts and posters? Inquiring minds want to know.

[hifigator]

nevadahoya3 said:

I think Miami has to win the next game (game 6) to win this series. I think it will be very hard for the Heat to win game 7 on the road. They just have got to get it down the next game and complete the sweep.

Honestly, I think you are pretty much correct. But mathematically, there has to be some reasonable percentage. I think the lowest chance you could give them to win any game is 20% and I think about the highest percentage you could give them to win game 6 on the road would still be 40%. So if you simply look at the numbers it looks like it's very close to a toss up realistically.

Again if they were only 33% to win game 6 and 20% to win game 7, that would still work out to a 47% chance to win one of them.

But I am with you. I don't want to see a game 7. I would be happy to see it end in 6.

[hifigator]

socalhoya said:

I agree with Nevada.

hifi, no offense intended, but are you here so much because the Gator boards are ho-hum or because the HoyaTalk board is so rife with brilliant posts and posters? Inquiring minds want to know.

No offense taken. I am here (in general) because I like the board. Like I told Buff and St. Pete when they asked back a ways. I do enjoy the discussions ... at least for the most part. And honestly at a "football school" the dregs of summer are called that for reasons other than you simply can't get any good weed. Until fall practice starts, it is pretty quiet around here. One year ago at this time everyone was all fired up with the Gator Baseball team making it to Omaha and even the National Championship Series. This year everyone is counting down the days til the fall.
I am here (in particular with this question) because I do value your basketball opinions. The detail and insight some of you add is above average for sure.


P.S. Don't let that last part go to your head ....

[williambraskyiii]

hifigaytor, i think i speak for the vast majority of the HoyaTalk Nation when I say:

you should seriously consider offing yourself.

not joking.

[StPetersburgHoya (Inactive)]

TO BILL BRASKY!!!

[hifigator]

I didn't know you two were butt buddies?

[SEAHoya]

Hmmm...that was perhaps over the top. Still, at least this is a thread I am marginally interested in. I gotta go with the Heat in this one, although I have no brilliant logic as to why! I feel like it could be mentally tough for the Mavs to come back from the OT loss, and perhaps that's what allows the Heat to grab game 6.

[RDF]

I am pulling for the Heat, but they will have to win a Game 7, as Nowitski's flopping will get rewarded more in Dallas and there is no way Posey and Haslem will be allowed to body him up on defense as they were in Miami.

Key to series is to control Jason Terry and not let him get his, and force Nowitski to beat you with jumpshots--if he does and Terry is held in check, Heat will be in position to win. If you let Terry score and you know Nowitski will get his in Dallas, likely a loss for Heat.

I take the Heat for two reasons--Wade is the most dynamic player in this Finals and those type of players are capable of carrying a team to victory--which he has done already.

Secondly, the Mavericks are losing their poise/focus with all of the whining and complaining. I think everyone gets some calls that go their way and agains them--and no matter when they happen, you have to look at what you did in the game to allow the calls to factor in--for instance Josh Howard bricking two FT's in OT that would've put them up 3 pts mattered as much as the last call against them on Wade's drive to hoop. Avery Johnson, Nowitski, and of course Cuban have shown no control and have acted like clowns which is contagious and will undoubtedly cause the Crowd in Game 6 to boo any call against Dallas.

One thing I like to point out in series where Shaq plays--the other team always BRAGS and openly states how many "fouls we have to use against Shaq" and "we'll use them and force him to hit FT's". Well that also gets the opponent in the penalty and allows the other players to go to the line--be it a legit/questionable call. So why whine over FT differential when you are openly bragging of how you will mug an opposing player and send him to the line/use fouls?? Dallas also is a jumpshooting team whose best player is a 7'0 guy who shoots fadeaways the majority of the time and yet he still has gone to the line more then anyone in history of the Playoffs. So fact they moan and whine about this is petty and sad--they were in position to win Games 3 and 5 and didn't get it done--they should win this series if they play their game but I think they are looking for excuses and not focusing on basketball and making plays. Just force anyone but Wade to beat you on that team and you win in 7, but I like Heat--for reason stated above and fact I just believe that Zo has to get his ring!

[hoyarooter]

Well, of course I'm rooting for the Heat, but I expect the Mavs to bounce back at home. The only redeeming feature of the series going 7 games will mean that we have not one but two opportunities to see Shaq go 0-20 from the line. I really want to see Shaq and Ben Wallace in a free throw shooting contest.

The Heat have not shown the ability to even come close to winning in Dallas this season, and while I would love to see them do so now, I don't think they will. Dallas will have Stackhouse back, and I expect them to regroup just fine. Plus, all that whining (and what can you expect, they just follow the lead of their owner, who is the biggest crybaby in American professional sports) will likely work to their advantage back in Dallas. I think Miami's best chance is for Shaq, Zo and Sieve to make a joint pact with the devil to turn back the clock 5-10 years.

[miamihoya]

I have no idea what hifi was talkin about in the opening post...throwing out a bunch of random numbers and math is not going to make us like you.

As for this series, I dont think its necessarly over. yet i'm sick of hearing people say that they rather be dallas, down 3-2 but playing two at home, than miami up 3-2, playing away. Anyone who holds that opinion is a moron and doesnt understand sports. A win is always worth more than "home-court advantage". Any coach that would be content with losing three in a row in order to head home for two more should be fired. You always wanna be up in the series. Will it be hard for the Heat to win in Dallas...of course. Do they need to win game 6 in order to avoid a tough game 7...obviously. But anything can happen.

Down in south florida we only need to look back three years when the marlins headed back to NY with a 3-2 advantage. Sure they yankees got two at home, in the scariest ballpark to play at (much worse than dallas). Yet Josh Beckett came out and dominated game 6, and game 7 wasnt necessary.

So stop counting out the heat. WADE will carry this team to victory.

[hifigator]

RDF wrote:

I am pulling for the Heat, but they will have to win a Game 7, as Nowitski's flopping will get rewarded more in Dallas and there is no way Posey and Haslem will be allowed to body him up on defense as they were in Miami.


That is how Miami wants to play Dirk, and I know there was a tremendous difference in free throw attempts. I think Dallas shot 4 more in the first two games at home, while Miami shot 40+ more in their 2 home games. But Haslem couldn't buy a call. They were calling him bodying up to DIrk immediately. Haslem was in permanent foul trouble in games 3 and 5 anyway. It was ridiculous. At least he deserved his 6th foul Sunday night though. If they are going to whistle him like ther were, at least make it worth it.

[hoyarooter]

miamihoya said:

I have no idea what hifi was talkin about in the opening post...throwing out a bunch of random numbers and math is not going to make us like you.

As for this series, I dont think its necessarly over. yet i'm sick of hearing people say that they rather be dallas, down 3-2 but playing two at home, than miami up 3-2, playing away. Anyone who holds that opinion is a moron and doesnt understand sports. A win is always worth more than "home-court advantage". Any coach that would be content with losing three in a row in order to head home for two more should be fired. You always wanna be up in the series. Will it be hard for the Heat to win in Dallas...of course. Do they need to win game 6 in order to avoid a tough game 7...obviously. But anything can happen.

Down in south florida we only need to look back three years when the marlins headed back to NY with a 3-2 advantage. Sure they yankees got two at home, in the scariest ballpark to play at (much worse than dallas). Yet Josh Beckett came out and dominated game 6, and game 7 wasnt necessary.

So stop counting out the heat. WADE will carry this team to victory.

I hope this wasn't directed at me. The fact is that if Dallas had won even one game in Miami, this series would for all practical purposes be over, as there is no way Miami would come back to Dallas and win twice. The Heat did exactly what they needed to do to keep their hopes alive. No one suggested that the Mavs are happy to be coming home down 3-2, and their behavior clearly illustrates that. My only point was that winning even one game in Dallas will be difficult for the Heat. I hope they prove me wrong tonight, but I don't expect that they will.

[VelvetElvis]

Tonight will mark Randy "Macho Man" Savage's triumphant return to Dallas as a "special" official in tonight's epic saga. After being announced as a part of tonight's bill, the Macho Man proceeded to designate tonight's match a "hardcore" affair. He went on to state that as a result of what might be perceived as an unfair call against the mavericks on Sunday night, Pat Riley must step aside and allow The Iron Shiek to coach The Heat.

Macho Man added that if The Heat lose tonight, The Iron Shiek will not only have to lower the prices of The Middle East's crude oil supply, but he will also have to endure personal humiliation by bowing down to the American flag and kiss the bottom of Mark Cuban's boots before millions of fans!

"We are sick and tired of those evil-doers raising the price of our gasoline, and I am personally going to put a stop to it by putting the Sheik in a figure four while Terrell Owens finishes him off with the mandible claw of death!" barked a red-faced Mark Cuban. T.O. then began shouting "U-S-A" to the delight of the fans.

The Sheik, in turn, vowed to make the Mavericks crawl like the Anglo- American scum that they are before boiling their innards for his own consumption. The Sheik then proceeded to spit on what appeared to be a copy of the Declaration of Independence...

Stay Tuned for tonight's madness!

[hifigator]

Is Sgt. Slaughter going to be bodyguard to the Iron Sheik? Remember when he "turned heel" towards the end of his wrestling days. That was hilarious.

[hoyarooter]

hifigator said:

Is Sgt. Slaughter going to be bodyguard to the Iron Sheik? Remember when he "turned heel" towards the end of his wrestling days. That was hilarious.

Actually, the Sarge was a heel for years. I think he was only converted to a "face" (prior to his re-conversion to a heel) in order to do battle with the Shiek and that Commie puke, Volkov.

[hoya4ever]

Zo has a ring!

[MCIGuy]

hoya4ever said:

Zo has a ring!

Sweeter words never written.

[RDF]

YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Zo was and IS a CHAMPION--won at every level and would've won more at GU if Pops would've recruited as he should've--but he's got State Title in HS, Gold Medal, NBA Ring--and a BET Title along with many individual awards---this is an ALL TIMER and nobody is more deserving. Brought a tear to my eye watching him not only get his ring but be RESPONSIBLE FOR THEM WINNING. His effort tonight was what he is about and why I think he's one of the most underrated players of his time--he is a dominant force and showed it tonight--truly fitting for him to get his title by dominating the game in his time on the court.

I know MCI is happy and all of GU is too!!! GREAT JOB BIG MAN!!!