|
Post by showcase on Jun 1, 2004 8:07:36 GMT -5
As the presidential race heats up, at least one site is taking the time to dispense with these largely useless national polls and break things down state by state... www.electoral-vote.comIt will be interesting to see how things pan out over time.
|
|
|
Post by TrueHoyaBlue on Jun 1, 2004 9:50:25 GMT -5
Definitely an interesting site, and while much of the data is older, it's fascinating to see such an early lead for Kerry in the electoral race... looking at the role of AZ and NM, this map would make a VP choice of Bill Richardson or (in the Dem's dreams) John McCain, pretty logical.
|
|
DFW HOYA
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,756
|
Post by DFW HOYA on Jun 1, 2004 22:20:51 GMT -5
Looks like Red and Blue America are holding close to form.
(Out here in Red America, there are no campaign commercials or lawn signs, ecause neither party will spend any significant money here. I'd be surprised if Kerry even made an appearance.)
|
|
|
Post by showcase on Jun 14, 2004 14:02:54 GMT -5
The most surprising development to date for me would have to be that Virginia is so close (listed at 2% as of June 13). I would have expected Va to be solidly behind Bush...
|
|
thebin
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,848
|
Post by thebin on Jun 14, 2004 17:05:44 GMT -5
What percentage of Virgina's population these days are northeastern transplants who are essentially Washingtonians but for DC's extremely limited geographic range? I am not saying you are wrong to be surprised, I am a bit too, just noting that the character of heavily populated northern VA these days is not much more Dixie than say Delaware is. But for sure, if Bush doesn't carry VA, he is in trouble.
|
|
|
Post by jerseyhoya34 on Jun 14, 2004 17:16:15 GMT -5
It should also be noted that VA elected a Dem to be their Governor in the most recent Gubernatorial in that state. I think thebin has analyzed the why question accurately. The Dem districts are along the northern border of VA and most intense near DC.
|
|
|
Post by Badger Hoya on Jun 14, 2004 23:46:07 GMT -5
Ironically enough though, during Gov. Warner's election, one of his strongest geographical areas was SW Virginia (ie, Appalachia, coal country, etc.), where he promised to bring some of the economic development initiatives that started in NoVa down there to spur econ. growth.
Perhaps it's a little bit of both...
|
|
|
Post by jerseyhoya34 on Jun 15, 2004 18:33:02 GMT -5
Interesting to look at the website today and analyze where this thing stands in the world of punditry. Once again, FL seems to be a key state given the margin. If that one swings over to Bush, Kerry has to play catch-up.
The fact that Kerry is behind in WI and other places near there makes me think that he'll nominate Vilsack or Bayh.
|
|
|
Post by showcase on Jun 16, 2004 15:27:49 GMT -5
An interesting point, but I don't think there's been a successful VP choice based on "geographic" considerations since Johnson. I think that, of late, VP choices are made to send messages rather than to bring a state's electoral votes into the fold.
I guess it all depends on whether there's any potential candidate total that could guarantee the state's electoral votes. Given that Gore couldn't even carry Tenn as a Presidential candidate, I wonder if there are any politicians left in the battle ground states that would have such influence AND be interested in being VP. Obviously, I can't think of any off the top of my head...
|
|
|
Post by showcase on Jun 18, 2004 8:45:23 GMT -5
|
|
Bahstin
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 624
|
Post by Bahstin on Jun 18, 2004 11:49:38 GMT -5
A discrepancy: Nevada is barely Kerry on electoral-vote, but counted a bush (not even a tossup) in rassmusen. there may be others, but noticed that one first.
|
|
|
Post by TrueHoyaBlue on Jun 18, 2004 12:04:58 GMT -5
I'm glad I updated my Virginia voter registration this week!
|
|
|
Post by jerseyhoya34 on Jun 21, 2004 20:35:26 GMT -5
A lot of pro-Kerry news in this latest WaPo/ABC poll: www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A58293-2004Jun21.htmlIn spite of President Bush's unprecedented campaign spending, Kerry seems to be holding his own while making key progess on other fronts, i.e. trustworthiness and war on terrorism. 4 and a half months to go...
|
|
|
Post by jerseyhoya34 on Jul 5, 2004 20:35:08 GMT -5
Here is another election predictor, which uses some slightly different methodology. www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.htmlIt seems like he uses national polls, state polls etc. and makes adjustments for what happened in 2000. The only difference between it and Electoral Vote at this time is that Election Projection is projecting Washington in column 2.
|
|
|
Post by showcase on Jul 6, 2004 11:52:35 GMT -5
electoral-vote has a nice link to the NY Post's front page proclaiming that Kerry chose Gephardt to be VP. Not quite as good as "Dewey Defeats Truman" (brought to you by my hometown Chicago Tribune), but still nice work by the Murdoch publication.
|
|
|
Post by jerseyhoya34 on Jul 28, 2004 12:47:45 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by showcase on Aug 19, 2004 7:35:48 GMT -5
Well, the race appears to be tightening up some in a few states (Wisc., Az., and most surprisingly Colo. are apparently tied based on the last poll), but what's more surprising is that Kerry apparently has a 6 point lead in Fla. despite Nader's 4% take in the polls.
While I can't imagine Bush winning without Fla., there's obviously a long way to go, and we haven't even seen what the convention will do for GWB's numbers. If the experts are right, it shouldn't do too much, since the prevailing theory is that the overwhelming majority of the electorate has already made up its mind, but I bet they're wrong.
Still, if GWB does make up serious ground in a number of states post-convention, I think his reelection is in serious doubt, because undecideds historically go 2-1 against incumbents. Obviously, that might not apply to this particular election, and Bush (or God forbit al-Qaeda) might pull off an 'October Surprise,' but the conventional wisdom (no pun intended) would suggest that Dubya has a lot riding on how things unfold in NYC.
|
|
kchoya
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Enter your message here...
Posts: 9,934
|
Post by kchoya on Aug 19, 2004 12:20:30 GMT -5
Well, the race appears to be tightening up some in a few states (Wisc., Az., and most surprisingly Colo. are apparently tied based on the last poll), but what's more surprising is that Kerry apparently has a 6 point lead in Fla. despite Nader's 4% take in the polls. While I can't imagine Bush winning without Fla., there's obviously a long way to go, and we haven't even seen what the convention will do for GWB's numbers. If the experts are right, it shouldn't do too much, since the prevailing theory is that the overwhelming majority of the electorate has already made up its mind, but I bet they're wrong. Still, if GWB does make up serious ground in a number of states post-convention, I think his reelection is in serious doubt, because undecideds historically go 2-1 against incumbents. Obviously, that might not apply to this particular election, and Bush (or God forbit al-Qaeda) might pull off an 'October Surprise,' but the conventional wisdom (no pun intended) would suggest that Dubya has a lot riding on how things unfold in NYC. Well, it's a good thing, then, that the "major" networks are only covering about 3-4 hours of these conventions. God forbid we miss another repeat of Fear Factor.
|
|
|
Post by showcase on Aug 19, 2004 15:00:28 GMT -5
True, but on the other hand, I doubt this year's "undecided voter" will be paying attention to anything more than Dubya's speech, and I don't think that would change regardless of how much other stuff was televised.
I think the people who are still undecided this year really don't care that much about politics, so they're looking for other things in the convention besides a compelling recitation of the party's platform. Heck, if Dubya has a good haircut going that night and manages not to say "strategery" again, it would probably win him as many converts as gavel-to-gavel coverage would. It might actually win him more.
|
|
thebin
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,848
|
Post by thebin on Aug 19, 2004 18:02:13 GMT -5
There is something we can agree on- the undecided voter at this point is usually weak-minded- not the noble independent progressive beast that the media sometimes portrays them as. Nope- just morons.
|
|